992 resultados para Quantitative reconstruction


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Chrysophyte cysts are recognized as powerful proxies of cold-season temperatures. In this paper we use the relationship between chrysophyte assemblages and the number of days below 4 °C (DB4 °C) in the epilimnion of a lake in northern Poland to develop a transfer function and to reconstruct winter severity in Poland for the last millennium. DB4 °C is a climate variable related to the length of the winter. Multivariate ordination techniques were used to study the distribution of chrysophytes from sediment traps of 37 low-land lakes distributed along a variety of environmental and climatic gradients in northern Poland. Of all the environmental variables measured, stepwise variable selection and individual Redundancy analyses (RDA) identified DB4 °C as the most important variable for chrysophytes, explaining a portion of variance independent of variables related to water chemistry (conductivity, chlorides, K, sulfates), which were also important. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate DB4 °C from sedimentary assemblages using partial least square regression (PLS). The two-component model (PLS-2) had a coefficient of determination of View the MathML sourceRcross2 = 0.58, with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on leave-one-out) of 3.41 days. The resulting transfer function was applied to an annually-varved sediment core from Lake Żabińskie, providing a new sub-decadal quantitative reconstruction of DB4 °C with high chronological accuracy for the period AD 1000–2010. During Medieval Times (AD 1180–1440) winters were generally shorter (warmer) except for a decade with very long and severe winters around AD 1260–1270 (following the AD 1258 volcanic eruption). The 16th and 17th centuries and the beginning of the 19th century experienced very long severe winters. Comparison with other European cold-season reconstructions and atmospheric indices for this region indicates that large parts of the winter variability (reconstructed DB4 °C) is due to the interplay between the oscillations of the zonal flow controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the influence of continental anticyclonic systems (Siberian High, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern). Differences with other European records are attributed to geographic climatological differences between Poland and Western Europe (Low Countries, Alps). Striking correspondence between the combined volcanic and solar forcing and the DB4 °C reconstruction prior to the 20th century suggests that winter climate in Poland responds mostly to natural forced variability (volcanic and solar) and the influence of unforced variability is low.

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1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

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In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Kotokel (52°47' N, 108°07' E, 458 m a.s.l.) located in southern Siberia east of Lake Baikal was used to derive quantitative characteristics of regional vegetation and climate from about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr = 1000 cal. yr) until today. Quantitative reconstruction of the late glacial vegetation and climate dynamics suggests that open steppe and tundra communities predominated in the study area prior to ca. 13.5 kyr BP and again during the Younger Dryas interval, between 12.8 and 11.6 kyr BP. The pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests lower-than-present mean January (~ -38 °C) and July (~ 12 °C) temperatures and annual precipitation (~ 270-300 mm) values during these time intervals. Boreal woodland replaced the primarily open landscape around Kotokel three times at about 14.8-14.7 kyr BP, during the Allerød Interstadial between 13.3-12.8 kyr BP and with the onset of the Holocene interglacial between 11.5 and 10.5 kyr BP, presumably in response to a noticeable increase in precipitation, and in July and January temperatures. The maximal spread of the boreal forest (taiga) communities in the region is associated with a warmer and wetter-than-present climate (Tw ~ 17-18 °C, Tc ~ -19 °C, Pann ~ 500-550 mm) that occurred ca. 10.8-7.3 kyr BP. During this time interval woody vegetation covered more than 50 % of the area within a 21x21 km window around the lake. The pollen-based best modern analogue reconstruction suggests a decrease in woody cover percentages and in all climatic variables about 7-6.5 kyr BP. Our results demonstrate a gradual decrease in precipitation and mean January temperature towards their present-day values in the region around Lake Kotokel since that time.

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Near-infrared diffuse optical tomography (DOT) technique has the capability of providing good quantitative reconstruction of tissue absorption and scattering properties with additional inputs such as input and output modulation depths and correction for the photon leakage. We have calculated the two-dimensional (2D) input modulation depth from three-dimensional (3D) diffusion to model the 2D diffusion of photons. The photon leakage when light traverses from phantom to the fiber tip is estimated using a solid angle model. The experiments are carried for single (5 and 6 mm) as well as multiple inhomogeneities (6 and 8 mm) with higher absorption coefficient in a homogeneous phantom. Diffusion equation for photon transport is solved using finite element method and Jacobian is modeled for reconstructing the optical parameters. We study the development and performance of DOT system using modulated single light source and multiple detectors. The dual source methods are reported to have better reconstruction capabilities to resolve and localize single as well as multiple inhomogeneities because of its superior noise rejection capability. However, an experimental setup with dual sources is much more difficult to implement because of adjustment of two out of phase identical light probes symmetrically on either side of the detector during scanning time. Our work shows that with a relatively simpler system with a single source, the results are better in terms of resolution and localization. The experiments are carried out with 5 and 6 mm inhomogeneities separately and 6 and 8 mm inhomogeneities both together with absorption coefficient almost three times as that of the background. The results show that our experimental single source system with additional inputs such as 2D input/output modulation depth and air fiber interface correction is capable of detecting 5 and 6 mm inhomogeneities separately and can identify the size difference of multiple inhomogeneities such as 6 and 8 mm. The localization error is zero. The recovered absorption coefficient is 93% of inhomogeneity that we have embedded in experimental phantom.

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Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) using near-infrared light is a promising tool for non-invasive imaging of deep tissue. This technique is capable of quantitative reconstruction of absorption (mu(a)) and scattering coefficient (mu(s)) inhomogeneities in the tissue. The rationale for reconstructing the optical property map is that the absorption coefficient variation provides diagnostic information about metabolic and disease states of the tissue. The aim of DOT is to reconstruct the internal tissue cross section with good spatial resolution and contrast from noisy measurements non-invasively. We develop a region-of-interest scanning system based on DOT principles. Modulated light is injected into the phantom/tissue through one of the four light emitting diode sources. The light traversing through the tissue gets partially absorbed and scattered multiple times. The intensity and phase of the exiting light are measured using a set of photodetectors. The light transport through a tissue is diffusive in nature and is modeled using radiative transfer equation. However, a simplified model based on diffusion equation (DE) can be used if the system satisfies following conditions: (a) the optical parameter of the inhomogeneity is close to the optical property of the background, and (b) mu(s) of the medium is much greater than mu(a) (mu(s) >> mu(a)). The light transport through a highly scattering tissue satisfies both of these conditions. A discrete version of DE based on finite element method is used for solving the inverse problem. The depth of probing light inside the tissue depends on the wavelength of light, absorption, and scattering coefficients of the medium and the separation between the source and detector locations. Extensive simulation studies have been carried out and the results are validated using two sets of experimental measurements. The utility of the system can be further improved by using multiple wavelength light sources. In such a scheme, the spectroscopic variation of absorption coefficient in the tissue can be used to arrive at the oxygenation changes in the tissue. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

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本论文研究的创新之处是在高分辨率的地层层序上选定3米X3米的工作剖面,逐层采集标本,定量研究山旺中新世古气候的变化过程。主要有以下新的认识和结论: 植物化石的数量和种类在地层层序上的变化很大。第5层、第6层、第7层、第13层、第15层和第16层的标本丰富,可以进行CLAMP分析。 第5层、第6层和第7层的泥岩中保存有丰富的植物化石,运用荧光显微分析技术可以清晰地观察到泥岩中植物的气孔和表皮细胞形态。 山旺地区中新世年均温(MAT)在9.5℃和11.3℃之间。较热月份平均温度(WMMT)在19.9 ℃和22.4 ℃之间。生长季月数(GSL)为5.9--6.9个月。生长季节平均降水量(MGSP)为860--1770 mm。生长季月平均降水量(MMGSP)为152--253mm,生长季三个连续最湿的月份降水量(3-WET)为530--920mm,三个连续最旱的月份的降水量(3-DRY)为286--687mm。相对湿度(Rel. Hum)在73%以上,高达80%。特殊湿度(q-Specific Humidity)在5.9--6.7之间,热熵值(H-Enthalpy)为298.5--304.5。 气候参数在地层层序上存在变化。CLAMP分析的结论与最近亲缘种分析(NLR)的结论相似。CLAMP分析的年均温比现在山旺的年均温12.5℃低,比同层的线性分析结果低3℃。与海底有孔虫氧同位素的研究结论一致。山东山旺中新世古气候的研究可以作为中中新世全球气候变化研究的一个标尺。

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定量重建地球生态系统的气候参数是当前国际古气候研究的目标之一. 自20世纪70年代以来, 尤其是在海洋学研究领域, 新技术的不断应用使得定量的古气候研究蓬勃发展. 相比之下陆地古气候参数的重建要困难得多, 陆地植物作为对环境的良好记录,一直备受重视. 近数十年来, 国际上广泛开展了利用植物材料定量研究气候的探索, 大量新的方法层出不穷. 德国科学家Mosbrugger和Utescher在1997年倡导的共存分析法(The Coexistence Approach)就是其中之一, 它依据现存最近亲缘类群原理以及植物分布与气候的关系原理, 找到化石植物群中各类群的现存最近亲缘类群对各气候参数的耐受范围; 并将各亲缘类群对同一气候参数的耐受范围叠加一起, 获得对该气候参数的共存区间, 用该区间作为对古气候参数的精确估测. 本文首先阐述在原文位于展开讨论的共存分析的理论基础——探讨植物分布与气候之间关系的耐受性理论. 并以此为指导, 对在该方法中气候台站的选用方法作了改进, 气象台站的选择应以植物的标本记录点为基础: 即使在某一特定的植物分布区内部也应该查看气象台站所在县级行政区域是否有该植物的标本采集信息, 并以此为依据来决定是否选用该气象台站的记录; 选用的气象台站的数量多寡应该以植物分布点的多少来决定. 以此为基础, 我们采用中国的植物分布与气象记录数据, 利用孢粉学的研究结果,定量重建了我国新生代三个地点的古气候参数, 结果如下: 1.内蒙古呼伦湖地区全新世初期气候 MAT: 4.4~10.2℃; MWMT: 22.9~24.1℃; MCMT: -18~-9.1℃; DT: 33.5~40.9℃; MAP: 354.3~686.7mm; MMaP: 103.8~191.9mm; MMiP: 2.7~7.3mm. 我们以扎赉诺尔地区的孢粉学研究为基础, 依据孢粉和盘星藻(Pediastrum Meyen)提供的环境信息并结合前人工作, 恢复了全新世初升温期的植被变化; 定量重建了10.4~10.2kaB.P.时的气候, 为全面理解呼伦湖地区的气候变化以及东亚的夏季风变化提供新的依据. 2.云南洱源上新世气候 MAT: 13.3~18.6℃; MWMT: 24.6~27.5℃; MCMT: 1.9~12.1℃; DT: 14.2~16.6℃; MAP: 619.9~1484.3mm; MMaP: 143.8~245.6mm; MMiP: 12.7~16.4mm. 该结果与羊邑、龙陵上新世古气候及三地的现代气候分析对比表明, 在上新世, 三地年均温符合纬向变化, 而降水量则基本一致. 在现代,洱源与羊邑在气候与植被上很相近, 且与上新世相差不大; 而龙陵地区则发生了显著的变化, 年均温比上新世低, 而降水量则大幅增加. 该变化指示了上新世以来作为青藏高原东部边缘的龙陵地区可能出现了地形的抬升. 3.吉林珲春始新世和中新世气候 始新世: MAT: 14.3~14.9℃; MWMT: 25~26.3℃; MCMT: 1.9~3.7℃; DT: 21.7~23℃; MAP: 797.5~1344mm; MMaP: 185.3~209.8mm; MMiP: 14.2~16.4mm. 中新世: MAT: 14.3~14.9℃; MWMT: 24.3~25.4℃; MCMT: 2.1~3.7℃; DT: 21.7~22.7℃; MAP: 658.7~817.7mm; MMaP: 158.9~174.6mm; MMiP: 7.4~7.6mm. 通过对两个时段的气候参数对比, 始新世时, 吉林珲春地区的气候属于北亚热带气候; 中新世时气候发生了改变, 归属于暖温带南部的气候, 改变了前人关于中新世也归属于被亚热带的认识, 这反映了我国东北部地区与全球新生代降温总趋势具有一定的同步性.

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植物作为气候环境变化的敏感指示物,能够提供许多有价值的气候环境变化信息,通过保存在地层中的植物化石和孢粉研究第三纪气候和环境变化已成为当今国际上的重要研究领域。 近年来,随着许多定量化的古气候分析方法(如:叶相分析法、树木年轮气候学法、共存分析法和特有种气候分析法)的不断出现,研究精度愈来愈高,已从定性描述过渡到定量化重建的阶段。 在本研究论文中,我们利用德国科学家Mosbrugger和Utescher在1997年倡导的共存分析法对海南岛长昌盆地始新世气候进行定量研究,并对盆地当时的古植被进行了重建。 长昌盆地始新世孢粉植物群以被子植物花粉占绝对优势(94.5%),主要以壳斗科个体极小的三沟、三孔沟花粉为主(88.9%),其他热带一亚热带分子有枫粉、山矾粉、棕榈粉和桃金娘粉等;裸子植物花粉含量较低(<3%),以松粉为主,铁杉粉、杉粉和麻黄粉零星出现;蕨类植物孢子含量低(<2.7%)。孢粉组合表明始新世时盆地中央的平原或丘陵地带生长着亚热带常绿落叶阔叶林,在盆地周围的山地生长着温带常绿落叶阔叶林和针叶林植被。 通过共存分析获得的长昌盆地始新世气候参数如下:年均温为14.2 - 19.4oC;最热月均温为24.1-29.1 0C;最冷月均温为1.7-8.6 0C;年较差为18.6-24.6oC;年均降雨量为797.5 -1113.3 mm;最大月降雨量为141.5 -268.1 mm;最小月降雨量为8.9- 14.1 mm。 我们将长昌盆地始新世孢粉植物群和古气候与吉林珲春始新世孢粉植物群和古气候进行比较,结果表明始新世时两地虽然相距23个纬度,但南北气候差异不大,均比较温暖湿润。其可能原因是:一方面,当时我国位于欧亚大陆的东南缘,受大气环流和洋流的影响比较均一;另一方面,始新世时青藏高原抬升并不剧烈,我国大部分地区的地势较为平缓,地面大气层的密度比较均匀,气温保持匀和状态。

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植物是环境变化的重要指示物之一。晚白垩至早第三纪时期,全球生态系统发生了剧烈变化,研究这一时期植物对了解地质历史时期环境变化趋势, 认识和保护当今环境有重要意义。我国黑龙江省嘉荫县有这一时期的地层发育,其中乌云煤矿和白山头是主要的露头剖面。前人曾从地质时代、孢粉及植物化石角度对这两个剖面进行过研究,但是仍有部分问题尚存争议。在本项工作中,我们对两个剖面的孢粉样品进行了系统采样,部分孢粉类型同时在光镜和电镜下进行了拍照。我们还对存在争议的这两个剖面的地质时代进行了讨论。同时,首次用共存分析法对这两个剖面的在沉积时期的气候进行了整体及分段的定量重建。另外,我们结合中其它地点的气候重建工作对不同时期的纬度温度梯度进行了研究。 乌云煤矿和白山头两个乌云组剖面的古新世孢粉植物群的研究结果表明:乌云煤矿孢粉植物群主要是与榛属(Corylus),桤木属(Alnus),桦木属(Betula),榆属(Ulmus)及松属(Pinus)有亲缘关系的植物;白山头剖面的孢粉植物类型与乌云煤矿基本一致,但是其中针叶类植物的花粉所占比重较大。 根据乌云煤矿与白山头剖面的孢粉类型在地层中的分布,以及与其它古新世地层的对比,我们认为乌云煤矿与白山头含孢粉段的地质时代为古新世。 用共存分析法得到乌云组古新世气候参数有两组。孢粉类型的共存结果为:年均温14.8-14.9℃,年降水量816-1389mm;植物化石类型的共存结果为:年均温16.3-16.8℃, 年降水:1124-1623mm。对乌云煤矿与白山头两个剖面孢粉带中的孢粉类型的气候参数分别进行共存,结果表明,除乌云煤矿孢粉第三带到第四带外,乌云地区的年均温在整个沉积时期均呈上升趋势;年均降水量的变化趋势与年均温基本一致。 根据从古新世到现代不同地点气候定量重建的年均温参数,我们计算得到了不同时期纬度温度梯度变化的值:<0.1℃/古纬度(古新世)、 0.1℃/古纬度(始新世)、0.45℃/纬度(中新世)、0.55℃/纬度(上新世)。结合当今全球的平均温度梯度值(0.7℃/纬度),我们得出纬度温度梯度的值从古新世以来呈不断上升的趋势。这一结果显示65Ma 以来赤道与极地间的温度差异逐渐增大,同时也提示了全球温度可能呈下降趋势。

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Based on chronological and climatologic analysis of many young stalagmites in Shihua Cave at Beijing and Water Cave in Benxi, Liaoning Province, this dissertation aims to discuss some key points on quantitative reconstruction of high resolution climate change from micro bands time series in young stalagmites. On chronological aspect of micro bands time series in young stalagmite, the uppermost micro bands were testified formed in the sampling year or the year before sampling from long term and in situ experiment in Shihua Cave at Beijing. Have been observed detailed under microscope, the micro bands were counted and compared with high resolution TIMS-230Th or ICP-MS U series dating, the results show that the micro bands are annual bands. The microscopic characteristics of annual bands in North China is as follows after studying lots of young stalagmites: the interface appears to be carved, and there is a light line adjacent to it, which moves back and forth slightly when adjusting the microscope slide. The cross dating of annual bands from different stalagmites is experimented in this thesis. On climatologically aspect of micro bands times series in young stalagmites, one significant problem is that the deposition trend resulting from the variation of the stalagmite shape. Various deposition trends have been discussed and corrected before climatologically analysis of micro bands series. And the whole year in situ observation and analysis of dripping water in Shihua Cave provide us new evidence for climate information reserved in stalagmites micro bands. The stalagmites in the same cave may contain different climate information due to the micro hydrological condition. The annual bands of young stalagmites collected from North China can be used to reconstruct past climate changes quantitatively. The warm season temperature (May, June, July, August) is reconstructed using two annual bands time series from Shihua Cave, Beijing, which corresponds to the warm/cool periods very well in Chinese history documents. The precipitation record of past 500 years is reconstructed using two stalagmite annual bands series from Shihua Cave, which is consistent to the dryness/wetness records derived from historical documents too.

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Chironomids preserved in a sediment core from Lago di Origlio (416 m a.s.l.), a lake in the foreland of the Southern Swiss Alps, allowed quantitative reconstruction of Late Glacial and Early Holocene summer temperatures using a combined Swiss–Norwegian temperature inference model based on chironomid assemblages from 274 lakes. We reconstruct July air temperatures of ca. 10 °C between 17 300 and 16 000 cal yr BP, a rather abrupt warming to ca. 12.0 °C at ca. 16 500–16 000 cal yr BP, and a strong temperature increase at the transition to the Bølling/Allerød interstadial with average temperatures of about 14 °C. During the Younger Dryas and earliest Holocene similar temperatures are reconstructed as for the interstadial. The rather abrupt warming at 16 500–16 000 cal yr BP is consistent with sea-surface temperature as well as speleothem records, which indicate a warming after the end of Heinrich event 1 (sensu stricto) and before the Bølling/Allerød interstadial in southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Pollen records from Origlio and other sites in southern Switzerland and northern Italy indicate an early reforestation of the lowlands 2000–1500 yr prior to the large-scale afforestation of Central Europe at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød period at ca. 14 700–14 600 cal yr BP. Our results suggest that these early afforestation processes in the formerly glaciated areas of northern Italy and southern Switzerland have been promoted by increasing temperatures.

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This study presents a proxy-based, quantitative reconstruction of cold-season (mean October to May, TOct–May) air temperatures covering nearly the entire last millennium (AD 1060–2003, some hiatuses). The reconstruction was based on subfossil chrysophyte stomatocyst remains in the varved sediments of high-Alpine Lake Silvaplana, eastern Swiss Alps (46°27’N, 9°48′W, 1791 m a.s.l.). Previous studies have demonstrated the reliability of this proxy by comparison to meteorological data. Cold-season air temperatures could therefore be reconstructed quantitatively, at a high resolution (5-yr) and with high chronological accuracy. Spatial correlation analysis suggests that the reconstruction reflects cold season climate variability over the high- Alpine region and substantial parts of central and western Europe. Cold-season temperatures were characterized by a relatively stable first part of the millennium until AD 1440 (2σ of 5-yr mean values = 0.7 °C) and highly variable TOct–May after that (AD 1440–1900, 2σ of 5-yr mean values = 1.3 °C). Recent decades (AD, 1991-present) were unusually warm in the context of the last millennium (exceeding the 2σ-range of the mean decadal TOct–May) but this warmth was not unprecedented. The coolest decades occurred from AD 1510–1520 and AD 1880–1890. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades is generally in good agreement with documentary data representing Switzerland and central European lowlands. The transition from relatively stable to highly variable TOct–May coincided with large changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region. Comparison of reconstructed cold season temperatures to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) during the past 1000 years showed that the relatively stable and warm conditions at the study site until AD 1440 coincided with a persistent positive mode of the NAO. We propose that the transition to large TOct–May variability around AD 1440 was linked to the subsequent absence of this persistent zonal flow pattern, which would allow other climatic drivers to gain importance in the study area. From AD 1440–1900, the similarity of reconstructed TOct–May to reconstructed air pressure in the Siberian High suggests a relatively strong influence of continental anticyclonic systems on Alpine cold season climate parameters during periods when westerly airflow was subdued. A more continental type of atmospheric circulation thus seems to be characteristic for the Little Ice Age in Europe. Comparison of Toct–May to summer temperature reconstructions from the same study site shows that, as expected, summer and cold season temperature trends and variability differed completely throughout nearly the entire last 1000 years. Since AD 1980, however, summer and cold season temperatures show a simultaneous, strong increase, which is unprecedented in the context of the last millennium. We suggest that the most likely explanation for this recent trend is anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing.

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For clinical optoacoustic imaging, linear probes are preferably used because they allow versatile imaging of the human body with real-time display and free-hand probe guidance. The two-dimensional (2-D) optoacoustic image obtained with this type of probe is generally interpreted as a 2-D cross-section of the tissue just as is common in echo ultrasound. We demonstrate in three-dimensional simulations, phantom experiments, and in vivo mouse experiments that for vascular imaging this interpretation is often inaccurate. The cylindrical blood vessels emit anisotropic acoustic transients, which can be sensitively detected only if the direction of acoustic radiation coincides with the probe aperture. Our results reveal for this reason that the signal amplitude of different blood vessels may differ even if the vessels have the same diameter and initial pressure distribution but different orientation relative to the imaging plane. This has important implications for the image interpretation, for the probe guidance technique, and especially in cases when a quantitative reconstruction of the optical tissue properties is required.