Carcel Modelo [Material gráfico] : Valencia

Papel verdoso y con luna

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions.

Interferência do volume de pulverização no controle da mancha preta (Guignardia citricarpa kiely) em frutos de laranjeira ‘valência’

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PReS-FINAL-2357: Effects of anti-melanocyte stimulating hormone in murine pristine-induced lupus

Introduction Alfa-melanocyte stimulating hormone (α-MSH) has a variety of biological functions such as downregulation of pro-inflammatory pathways, reduction of skin delayed-type hypersensitivity and blockage of leukocyte migration. Inhibition of experimental disease models development including inflammatory bowel disease and rheumatoid arthritis has been shown, however the immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects of α-MSH on murine lupus remain undetermined. Objectives To evaluate the effect of α-MSH analogue (NDP α-MSH) on pristane-induced murine lupus. Methods Thirty-five BALB/c mice were injected with 0.5 ml intraperitoneal (IP) pristane for lupus-like model induction and 5 age/gender matched control mice were given saline. Pristane-induced lupus animals received daily IP saline (n = 5) or treatments with 3.1 mg/kg/d chloroquine (n = 10), 1.25 mg/kg/d NDP α-MSH (n = 10) or 2.5 mg/kg/d NDP α-MSH (n = 10). Prior and 180 days after induction, clinical and laboratorial lupus-like parameters were examined. Sera ANA was tested by IF using Hep2 cells. Statistical analysis was performed by Mann-Whitney and Fisher test and P < 0,05 considered significant. Results Arthritis in both hind legs and large amounts of lipogranulomas in peritoneal cavity were observed in all lupus-like animals in contrast to all controls. By visual observation, all lupus animals treated with both doses of α-MSH had significant less amount and lower size lipogranulomas. Mean arthritis score in 5 untreated mice, 9 animals treated with chloroquine and 8 with α-MSH 2.5 mg/kg/d was 5.2, 3.33 and 3.1 respectively. Remarkably, mean arthritis score of animals treated with α-MSH 1.25 mg/kg/d was 1.6, significantly lower than untreated mice (1.6 vs 5.2, p = 0.0291). ANAs were negative in sera from all 40 animals before pristane lupus injection; 180 days after induction, ANAs remained negative in normal mice but became positive in all 5 (100%) untreated lupus animals, 7 (77%), 4 (50%) and 3 (35%) lupus models treated with chloroquine, α-MSH 2.5 mg/kg/d and α-MSH 1.25 mg/kg/d (100% vs 35%, p = 0,0256), respectively. Before the end of the experiment, by day 150, 3 animals died: 1 treated with chloroquine and 2 with higher doses of α-MSH. Conclusion NDP α-MSH promoted improvement of clinical and serological parameters in pristane-induced murine lupus suggesting a potential role for this drug in human SLE.

Coupling short-term (B2G model) and long-term (g-function) models for ground source heat exchanger simulation in TRNSYS. Application in a real installation

Ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems represent one of the most promising techniques for heating and cooling in buildings. These systems use the ground as a heat source/sink, allowing a better efficiency thanks to the low variations of the ground temperature along the seasons. The ground-source heat exchanger (GSHE) then becomes a key component for optimizing the overall performance of the system. Moreover, the short-term response related to the dynamic behaviour of the GSHE is a crucial aspect, especially from a regulation criteria perspective in on/off controlled GSHP systems. In this context, a novel numerical GSHE model has been developed at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética, Universitat Politècnica de València. Based on the decoupling of the short-term and the long-term response of the GSHE, the novel model allows the use of faster and more precise models on both sides. In particular, the short-term model considered is the B2G model, developed and validated in previous research works conducted at the Instituto de Ingeniería Energética. For the long-term, the g-function model was selected, since it is a previously validated and widely used model, and presents some interesting features that are useful for its combination with the B2G model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the procedure of combining these two models in order to obtain a unique complete GSHE model for both short- and long-term simulation. The resulting model is then validated against experimental data from a real GSHP installation.

Safe lipid nanocapsule-based gel technology to target lymph nodes and combat mediastinal metastases from an orthotopic non-small-cell lung cancer model in SCID-CB17 mice

International audience

Results of a feasibility study: barriers and facilitators in implementing the Sherbrooke model in France.

International audience

A gestão de recursos humanos na valência psicossocial de uma ong: Modelo de apoio psicossocial em situações de crise, para a Cruz Vermelha Portuguesa : Trabalho de projecto

Pretende-se elaborar um modelo de apoio psicossocial dada a necessidade organizacional e da gestão dos recursos humanos afetos a esta resposta, demonstrando preocupação pela qualidade de vida dos indivíduos que lidam com vulnerabilidades indutoras de stress - visto que o presente estudo se desenvolve para a Sociedade Nacional da Cruz Vermelha: organização com cariz iminentemente social, estando na primeira linha da intervenção em incidentes geradores de stress, nas vítimas e nos profissionais que intervêm. Analisar-se-á o estado da arte dos modelos de intervenção psicossocial em incidentes e elaborar­se-á proposta de modelo teórico a aplicar na CVP - considerando que a estrutura trabalha com e para pessoas, e que todos podem enfrentar fatores de vulnerabilidade. Recorreu-se à metodologia da entrevista sarni-diretiva da amostra relevante para o estudo; efetuou-se pesquisa bibliográfica exploratória; elaborou-se revisão da literatura multidisciplinar e crítica, viabilizando a construção do modelo de apoio psicossocial que pode aplicar-se à intervenção da Cruz Vermelha Portuguesa. ABSTRACT: lntend to elaborate model of psychosocial support given the need for organizational and management of human resources dedicated to this response, showing concern for the quality of life of individuals who deal with vulnerabilities that induce stress - because the present study develops for the National Society of the Red Cross organization eminently social nature, being the first line of intervention in incidents generating stress on the victims and the professionals involved. Analyze will be state of the art models of psychosocial intervention in incidents and draw will be proposed a theoretical model applied in the CVP - considering that the structure works with and for people, and that all may experience vulnerability factors. Resorted to the methodology of semi-directive interview sample relevant to the study, was carried out bibliographical research; elaborated multidisciplinary review of the literature and criticism, making the construction of the model of psychosocial support that may apply to the intervention of Portuguese Red Cross.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.