Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Long-range transport of mineral dust in the global atmosphere: Impact of African dust on the environment of the southeastern United States

Soil dust is a major constituent of airborne particles in the global atmosphere. Dust plumes frequently cover huge areas of the earth; they are one of the most prominent and commonly visible features in satellite imagery. Dust is believed to play a role in many biogeochemical processes, but the importance of dust in these processes is not well understood because of the dearth of information about the global distribution of dust and its physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties. This paper describes some features of the large-scale distribution of dust and identifies some of the geological characteristics of important source areas. The transport of dust from North Africa is presented as an example of possible long-range dust effects, and the impact of African dust on environmental processes in the western North Atlantic and the southeastern United States is assessed. Dust transported over long distances usually has a mass median diameter <10 μm. Small wind-borne soil particles show signs of extensive weathering; consequently, the physical and chemical properties of the particles will greatly depend on the weathering history in the source region and on the subsequent modifications that occur during transit in the atmosphere (typically a period of a week or more). To fully understand the role of dust in the environment and in human health, mineralogists will have to work closely with scientists in other disciplines to characterize the properties of mineral particles as an ensemble and as individual particles especially with regard to surface characteristics.

Biologia e abundância do camarão Plesionika edwardsii (Brandt, 1851) nos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 15 de Janeiro de 2009, Universidade dos Açores.

Current distribution of Achatina fulica, in the State of São Paulo including records of Aelurostrongylus abstrusus (Nematoda) larvae infestation

The currently known distribution range of Achatina fulica Bowdich, 1822, in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, is presented. The record of A. fulica naturally infested with Aelurostrongylus abstrusus larvae (Railliet, 1898) (Nematoda: Metastrongylidae) can be found in the city of Guaratinguetá. It was found A. fulica with Metastrongylidae larvae without known medical and veterinary importance in the cities of Carapicuíba, Embu-Guaçu, Itapevi, São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo and Taboão da Serra.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Sex-chromosome differentiation parallels postglacial range expansion in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea).

Occasional XY recombination is a proposed explanation for the sex-chromosome homomorphy in European tree frogs. Numerous laboratory crosses, however, failed to detect any event of male recombination, and a detailed survey of NW-European Hyla arborea populations identified male-specific alleles at sex-linked loci, pointing to the absence of XY recombination in their recent history. Here, we address this paradox in a phylogeographic framework by genotyping sex-linked microsatellite markers in populations and sibships from the entire species range. Contrasting with postglacial populations of NW Europe, which display complete absence of XY recombination and strong sex-chromosome differentiation, refugial populations of the southern Balkans and Adriatic coast show limited XY recombination and large overlaps in allele frequencies. Geographically and historically intermediate populations of the Pannonian Basin show intermediate patterns of XY differentiation. Even in populations where X and Y occasionally recombine, the genetic diversity of Y haplotypes is reduced below the levels expected from the fourfold drop in copy numbers. This study is the first in which X and Y haplotypes could be phased over the distribution range in a species with homomorphic sex chromosomes; it shows that XY-recombination patterns may differ strikingly between conspecific populations, and that recombination arrest may evolve rapidly (<5000 generations).

Trichoptera (INSECTA) collected in Mediterranean river basins in the Iberian Peninsula: taxonomic remarks and notes on ecology

As a result of the GUADALMED project, undertaken in Iberian Mediterranean basins, to which were added samples taken by the junior author in the area, we collected numerous caddisfly larvae, pupae and adults. Some larvae were also reared in the lab to obtain adults and allow proper identification. A total of 90 species were identified, which accounts for more than a fourth of the species known in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Here we confirm the presence of doubtful species in the Iberian Peninsula (Glyphotaelius pellucidus) and we expand the distribution range of others (Lype reducta, Micrasema minimum, Limnephilus guadarramicus, Sericostoma pyrenaicum). Moreover, because of the unconformity of morphological larval characteristics with present taxonomical keys (Mesophylax aspersus) or lack of larvae descriptions (Allogamus mortoni, Stenophylax espanioli), here we include some relevant taxonomical aspects that are useful to identify larvae. A brief description of the larva of a possible new species of Hydropsyche (from now on H. gr. instabilis) is also given. Los tricópteros (Insecta) recolectados en las cuencas mediterráneas de la Península Ibérica: notas taxonómicas y requerimientos ecológicos Como resultado de los estudios realizados en el proyecto GUADALMED en las cuencas de los ríos mediterráneos peninsulares y otros muestreos realizados por la primera autora del trabajo se han recolectado numerosas larvas, pupas y adultos de tricópteros. Algunas larvas fueron criadas en el laboratorio para la obtención de adultos y con ello asegurar su identificación. Se han identificado un total de 90 especies que suponen más de una cuarta parte de las especies actualmente conocidas en la Península Ibérica y Baleares. En este trabajo se confirma la presencia, hasta ahora dudosa en la Península Ibérica, de algunas especies (Glyphotaelius pellucidus) y se amplia el área de distribución de otras (Lype reducta, Micrasema minimum, Limnephilus guadarramicus, Sericostoma pyrenaicum). Además, se incluyen algunos aspectos taxonómicos relevantes para la identificación de algunas larvas en futuros estudios, debido a que las claves ya existentes no describen correctamente la larva (Mesophylax aspersus) o porque se trata de larvas sin describir (Allogamus mortoni, Stenophylax espanioli). Se añade también una somera descripción de la larva de una posible nueva especie de Hydropsyche (citada aquí como H. gr. instabilis) y que requiere un estudio más detallado.

Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.

Phylogeography and population genetics of north European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

Although abundant in the number of individuals, the Atlantic salmon may be considered as a threatened species in many areas of its native distribution range. Human activities such as building of power plant dams, offshore overfishing, pollution, clearing of riverbeds for timber floating and badly designed stocking regimes have diminished the distribution of Atlantic salmon. As a result of this, many of the historical populations both in Europe and northern America have gone extinct or are severely depressed. In fact, only 1% of Atlantic salmon existing today are of natural origin, the rest being farmed salmon. All of this has lead to a vast amount of research and many restoration programmes aiming to bring Atlantic salmon back to rivers from where it has vanished. However, many of the restoration programmes conducted thus far have been unsuccessful due to inadequate scientific research or lack of its implementation, highlighting the fact that more research is needed to fully understand the biology of this complex species. The White and Barents Seas in northwest Russia are among the last regions in Europe where Atlantic salmon populations are still stable, thus forming an important source of biodiversity for the entire European region. Salmon stocks from this area are also of immense economic and social importance for the local people in the form of fishing tourism. The main aim of this thesis was to elucidate the post-glacial history and population genetic structure of north European and particularly northwest Russian Atlantic salmon, both of which are aspects of great importance for the management and conservation of the species. Throughout the whole thesis, these populations were studied by utilizing microsatellites as the main molecular tool. One of the most important discoveries of the thesis was the division of Atlantic salmon from the White and Barents Seas into four separate clusters, which has not been observed in previous studies employing nuclear markers although is supported by mtDNA studies. Populations from the western Barents Sea clustered together with the northeast Atlantic populations into a clearly distinguishable group while populations from the White Sea and eastern Barents Sea were separated into three additional groups. This has important conservation implications as this thesis clearly indicates that conservation of populations from all of the observed clusters is warranted in order to conserve as much of the genetic diversity as possible in this area. The thesis also demonstrates how differences in population life histories within a species, migratory behaviour in this case, and in their phylogeographic origin affect the genetic characteristics of populations, namely diversity and divergence levels. The anadromous populations from the Atlantic Ocean, White Sea and Barents Sea possessed higher levels of genetic diversity than the anadromous populations form the Baltic Sea basin. Among the non-anadromous populations the result was the opposite: the Baltic freshwater populations were more variable. This emphasises the importance of taking the life history of a population into consideration when developing conservation strategies: due to the limited possibilities for new genetic diversity to be generated via gene flow, it is expected that freshwater Atlantic salmon populations would be more vulnerable to extinction following a population crash and thus deserve a high conservation status. In the last chapter of this thesis immune relevant marker loci were developed and screened for signatures of natural selection along with loci linked to genes with other functions or no function at all. Also, a novel landscape genomics method, which combines environmental information with molecular data, was employed to investigate whether immune relevant markers displayed significant correlations to various environmental variables more frequently than other loci. Indications of stronger selection pressure among immune-relevant loci compared to non-immune relevant EST-linked loci was found but further studies are needed to evaluate whether it is a common phenomenon in Atlantic salmon.

Distribution network design and optimization

The objective of this thesis is to examine distribution network designs and modeling practices and create a framework to identify best possible distribution network structure for the case company. The main research question therefore is: How to optimize case company’s distribution network in terms of customer needs and costs? Theory chapters introduce the basic building blocks of the distribution network design and needed calculation methods and models. Framework for the distribution network projects was created based on the theory and the case study was carried out by following the defined framework. Distribution network calculations were based on the company’s sales plan for the years 2014 - 2020. Main conclusions and recommendations were that the new Asian business strategy requires high investments in logistics and the first step is to open new satellite DC in China as soon as possible to support sales and second possible step is to open regional DC in Asia within 2 - 4 years.

Toward multifactorial null models of range contraction in terrestrial vertebrates

The contraction of a species’ distribution range, which results from the extirpation of local populations, generally precedes its extinction. Therefore, understanding drivers of range contraction is important for conservation and management. Although there are many processes that can potentially lead to local extirpation and range contraction, three main null models have been proposed: demographic, contagion, and refuge. The first two models postulate that the probability of local extirpation for a given area depends on its relative position within the range; but these models generate distinct spatial predictions because they assume either a ubiquitous (demographic) or a clinal (contagion) distribution of threats. The third model (refuge) postulates that extirpations are determined by the intensity of human impacts, leading to heterogeneous spatial predictions potentially compatible with those made by the other two null models. A few previous studies have explored the generality of some of these null models, but we present here the first comprehensive evaluation of all three models. Using descriptive indices and regression analyses we contrast the predictions made by each of the null models using empirical spatial data describing range contraction in 386 terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles) distributed across the World. Observed contraction patterns do not consistently conform to the predictions of any of the three models, suggesting that these may not be adequate null models to evaluate range contraction dynamics among terrestrial vertebrates. Instead, our results support alternative null models that account for both relative position and intensity of human impacts. These new models provide a better multifactorial baseline to describe range contraction patterns in vertebrates. This general baseline can be used to explore how additional factors influence contraction, and ultimately extinction for particular areas or species as well as to predict future changes in light of current and new threats.

Etnobiologia do boto cinza (Sotalia guianensis, van Bénéden, 1864) por comunidades pesqueiras do Rio Grande do Norte, Basil

Ethnobiology studies Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) as well as the use and management of natural resources by local communities in order to understand how the environment is perceived, known and classified by human groups. In fishing communities, LEK adds empirical information about the biology of aquatic species and complements scientific findings, especially when it is difficult to obtain factual information during studies on cetaceans, whose behavior is essentially underwater. Cetaceans (whales and dolphins) are constantly threatened by human activities, especially by accidental capture of small coastal species, as in the case of the estuarine dolphin (Sotalia guianensis), object of this study. Ethnobiological researches in fishing communities are of great importance and can clarify aspects of the biology and conservation of this species. Although extensively studied throughout its distribution range, there are still gaps in the knowledge about S. guianensis. Therefore, fishers local ecological knowledge becomes an additional tool to get and confirm information about S. guianensis. This study evaluated the LEK of artisanal fishers who are daily exposed to local population of S. guianensis, through the use of semistructured interviews (N=116). The interviewed fishers were asked about the biology and popular classification of S. guianensis and about possible interactions between this dolphin and them. The studied communities were located in Tibau do Sul (n=39), Pipa (n=36) and Baía Formosa (n=41), all on the south coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The study was based on the assumption that differences in fishers LEK among those communities would be caused by both the variety of fishing environments (lagoon/estuary and ocean) and the intensity of tourism activities. Fishers knowledge is expressive and differed among the studied communities depending on the topic investigated. Fishers correctly reported the habitat, distribution, seasonality and behavioral particularities of S. guianensis. Tourism mainly affected the naming of the species. The study results also suggest that marine fishers have greater knowledge about the species than the estuarine/lagoon ones. Local populations accumulate empirical knowledge according to their environment. Hence, it is important to take into account both empirical knowledge and popular participation in management systems, in order to maintain information sharing among communities