Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Condence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer fromnotorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependencein the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as isoften the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using thestudentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as thechoice of the block size. A particular data-dependent method is proposedto automate the method. As a side note, it is pointed out that symmetricconfidence intervals are preferred over equal-tailed ones, since theyexhibit improved coverage accuracy. The improvements in small sampleperformance are supported by a simulation study.

Nonparametric Estimation of the Average Availability

The average availability of a repairable system is the expected proportion of time that the system is operating in the interval [0, t]. The present article discusses the nonparametric estimation of the average availability when (i) the data on 'n' complete cycles of system operation are available, (ii) the data are subject to right censorship, and (iii) the process is observed upto a specified time 'T'. In each case, a nonparametric confidence interval for the average availability is also constructed. Simulations are conducted to assess the performance of the estimators.

Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

PV power forecast using a nonparametric PV model

Forecasting the AC power output of a PV plant accurately is important both for plant owners and electric system operators. Two main categories of PV modeling are available: the parametric and the nonparametric. In this paper, a methodology using a nonparametric PV model is proposed, using as inputs several forecasts of meteorological variables from a Numerical Weather Forecast model, and actual AC power measurements of PV plants. The methodology was built upon the R environment and uses Quantile Regression Forests as machine learning tool to forecast AC power with a confidence interval. Real data from five PV plants was used to validate the methodology, and results show that daily production is predicted with an absolute cvMBE lower than 1.3%.

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Self-Esteem, Confidence, and Relationships in Brazilian Men with Erectile Dysfunction Receiving Sildenafil Citrate: A Randomized, Parallel-Group, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study in Brazil

Psychosocial manifestations of erectile dysfunction (ED) differ across cultures. Understanding the treatment response to ED medications within cultural groups can aid in resource allocation and in developing treatment strategies. Evaluate the effect of sildenafil treatment on self-esteem, confidence, and sexual relationship satisfaction in Brazilian men with ED. The Self-Esteem and Relationship (SEAR) questionnaire, a validated, 14-question instrument developed to specifically address self-esteem and relationship issues within the context of ED. Men aged 18 years or older with a clinical diagnosis of ED (<= 21 on the Sexual Health Inventory for Men) and in a stable relationship with a partner during the study were eligible. The primary end point was a change from baseline in the self-esteem subscale of the SEAR questionnaire. Thirteen Brazilian sites participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of sildenafil treatment for ED. Patients were randomized to receive either 50 mg of sildenafil (adjustable to 25 mg or 100 mg based on patient response) or matching placebo approximately 1 hour before anticipated sexual activity but not more than once a day. At the end of double-blind treatment, 63 and 66 patients in the placebo and sildenafil groups, respectively, from 13 Brazilian sites were assessed for efficacy. Brazilian patients receiving sildenafil had significantly greater improvements in their scores on the SEAR self-esteem subscale (42.9 [95% confidence interval 35.7-50.0]) compared with placebo (21.1 [95% confidence interval 13.7-28.6]; P < 0.0001). Effect sizes ranged from 0.91 to 1.25 for individual SEAR components. The psychosocial parameters in Brazilian men with ED assessed by the SEAR questionnaire showed significant improvements in self-esteem, confidence, and relationships after treatment with sildenafil. Glina S, Damiao R, Abdo C, Afif-Abdo J, Tseng L-J, and Stecher V. Self-esteem, confidence, and relationships in Brazilian men with erectile dysfunction receiving sildenafil citrate: A randomized, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in Brazil. J Sex Med 2009;6:268-275.

Sudden cardiac arrest associated with early repolarization.

BACKGROUND: Early repolarization is a common electrocardiographic finding that is generally considered to be benign. Its potential to cause cardiac arrhythmias has been hypothesized from experimental studies, but it is not known whether there is a clinical association with sudden cardiac arrest. METHODS: We reviewed data from 206 case subjects at 22 centers who were resuscitated after cardiac arrest due to idiopathic ventricular fibrillation and assessed the prevalence of electrocardiographic early repolarization. The latter was defined as an elevation of the QRS-ST junction of at least 0.1 mV from baseline in the inferior or lateral lead, manifested as QRS slurring or notching. The control group comprised 412 subjects without heart disease who were matched for age, sex, race, and level of physical activity. Follow-up data that included the results of monitoring with an implantable defibrillator were obtained for all case subjects. RESULTS: Early repolarization was more frequent in case subjects with idiopathic ventricular fibrillation than in control subjects (31% vs. 5%, P<0.001). Among case subjects, those with early repolarization were more likely to be male and to have a history of syncope or sudden cardiac arrest during sleep than those without early repolarization. In eight subjects, the origin of ectopy that initiated ventricular arrhythmias was mapped to sites concordant with the localization of repolarization abnormalities. During a mean (+/-SD) follow-up of 61+/-50 months, defibrillator monitoring showed a higher incidence of recurrent ventricular fibrillation in case subjects with a repolarization abnormality than in those without such an abnormality (hazard ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 3.5; P=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with a history of idiopathic ventricular fibrillation, there is an increased prevalence of early repolarization.

Substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone: Impact on QTc interval.

Methadone is administered as a chiral mixture of (R,S)-methadone. The opioid effect is mainly mediated by (R)-methadone, whereas (S)-methadone blocks the human ether-à-go-go-related gene (hERG) voltage-gated potassium channel more potently, which can cause drug-induced long QT syndrome, leading to potentially lethal ventricular tachyarrhythmias. To investigate whether substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone could reduce the corrected QT (QTc) interval, (R,S)-methadone was replaced by (R)-methadone (half-dose) in 39 opioid-dependent patients receiving maintenance treatment for 14 days. (R)-methadone was then replaced by the initial dose of (R,S)-methadone for 14 days (n = 29). Trough (R)-methadone and (S)-methadone plasma levels and electrocardiogram measurements were taken. The Fridericia-corrected QT (QTcF) interval decreased when (R,S)-methadone was replaced by a half-dose of (R)-methadone; the median (interquartile range [IQR]) values were 423 (398-440) milliseconds (ms) and 412 (395-431) ms (P = .06) at days 0 and 14, respectively. Using a univariate mixed-effect linear model, the QTcF value decreased by a mean of -3.9 ms (95% confidence interval [CI], -7.7 to -0.2) per week (P = .04). The QTcF value increased when (R)-methadone was replaced by the initial dose of (R,S)-methadone for 14 days; median (IQR) values were 424 (398-436) ms and 424 (412-443) ms (P = .01) at days 14 and 28, respectively. The univariate model showed that the QTcF value increased by a mean of 4.7 ms (95% CI, 1.3-8.1) per week (P = .006). Substitution of (R,S)-methadone by (R)-methadone reduces the QTc interval value. A safer cardiac profile of (R)-methadone is in agreement with previous in vitro and pharmacogenetic studies. If the present results are confirmed by larger studies, (R)-methadone should be prescribed instead of (R,S)-methadone to reduce the risk of cardiac toxic effects and sudden death.

Primary percutaneous coronary intervention for unprotected left main disease in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland) plus registry experience.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to assess outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for unprotected left main (LM) disease. BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction undergoing LM PCI. METHODS: Of 9,075 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction enrolled in the AMIS (Acute Myocardial Infarction in Switzerland) Plus registry between 2005 and June 30, 2010, 6,666 underwent primary PCI. Of them, 348 (5.2%; mean age: 63.5 ± 12.6 years) underwent LM PCI, either isolated (n = 208) or concomitant to PCI for other vessel segments (n = 140). They were compared with 6,318 patients (94.8%; mean age: 61.9 ± 12.5 years) undergoing PCI of non-LM vessel segments only. RESULTS: The LM patients had higher rates of cardiogenic shock (12.2% vs. 3.5%; p < 0.001), cardiac arrest (10.6% vs. 6.3%; p < 0.01), in-hospital mortality (10.9% vs. 3.8%; p < 0.001), and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (12.4% vs. 5.0%; p < 0.001) than non-LM PCI. Rates of mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were highest for concurrent LM and non-LM PCI (17.9% and 18.6%, respectively), intermediate for isolated LM PCI (6.3% and 8.3%, respectively), and lowest for non-LM PCI (3.8% and 5.0%, respectively). Rates of mortality and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events for LM PCI were higher than for non-LM multivessel PCI (10.9% vs. 4.9%, p < 0.001, and 12.4% vs. 6.4%, p < 0.001, respectively). LM disease independently predicted in-hospital death (odds ratio: 2.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.34 to 4.17; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Emergent LM PCI in the context of acute myocardial infarction, even including 12% cardiogenic shock, appears to have a remarkably high (89%) in-hospital survival. Concurrent LM and non-LM PCI has worse outcomes than isolated LM PCI.

Hospital volume and patient outcomes in pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND: In numerous high-risk medical and surgical conditions, a greater volume of patients undergoing treatment in a given setting or facility is associated with better survival. For patients with pulmonary embolism, the relation between the number of patients treated in a hospital (volume) and patient outcome is unknown. METHODS: We studied discharge records from 186 acute care hospitals in Pennsylvania for a total of 15 531 patients for whom the primary diagnosis was pulmonary embolism. The study outcomes were all-cause mortality in hospital and within 30 days after presentation for pulmonary embolism and the length of hospital stay. We used logistic models to study the association between hospital volume and 30-day mortality and discrete survival models to study the association between in-hospital mortality and time to hospital discharge. RESULTS: The median annual hospital volume for pulmonary embolism was 20 patients (interquartile range 10-42). Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.0%, whereas 30-day mortality was 9.3%. In multivariable analysis, very-high-volume hospitals (> or = 42 cases per year) had a significantly lower odds of in-hospital death (odds ratio [OR] 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-0.99) and of 30-day death (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.54-0.92) than very-low-volume hospitals (< 10 cases per year). Although patients in the very-high-volume hospitals had a slightly longer length of stay than those in the very-low-volume hospitals (mean difference 0.7 days), there was no association between volume and length of stay. INTERPRETATION: In hospitals with a high volume of cases, pulmonary embolism was associated with lower short-term mortality. Further research is required to determine the causes of the relation between volume and outcome for patients with pulmonary embolism.

The use of rapid dengue diagnostic tests in a routine clinical setting in a dengue-endemic area of Colombia

There is insufficient evidence of the usefulness of dengue diagnostic tests under routine conditions. We sought to analyse how physicians are using dengue diagnostics to inform research and development. Subjects attending 14 health institutions in an endemic area of Colombia with either a clinical diagnosis of dengue or for whom a dengue test was ordered were included in the study. Patterns of test-use are described herein. Factors associated with the ordering of dengue diagnostic tests were identified using contingency tables, nonparametric tests and logistic regression. A total of 778 subjects were diagnosed with dengue by the treating physician, of whom 386 (49.5%) were tested for dengue. Another 491 dengue tests were ordered in subjects whose primary diagnosis was not dengue. Severe dengue classification [odds ratio (OR) 2.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5], emergency consultation (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.5) and month of the year (OR 3.1; 95% CI 1.7-5.5) were independently associated with ordering of dengue tests. Dengue tests were used both to rule in and rule out diagnosis. The latter use is not justified by the sensitivity of current rapid dengue diagnostic tests. Ordering of dengue tests appear to depend on a combination of factors, including physician and institutional preferences, as well as other patient and epidemiological factors.