Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene dinoflagellate cysts and sea surface temperture reconstruction for several IODP and DSDP sites in the North Atlantic

In an attempt to document the palaeoecological affinities of individual extant and extinct dinoflagellate cysts, Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene dinoflagellate cyst assemblages have been compared with geochemical data from the same samples. Mg/Ca ratios of Globigerina bulloides were measured to estimate the spring-summer sea-surface temperatures from four North Atlantic IODP/DSDP sites. Currently, our Pliocene-Pleistocene database contains 204 dinoflagellate cyst samples calibrated to geochemical data. This palaeo-database is compared with modern North Atlantic and global datasets. The focus lies in the quantitative relationship between Mg/Ca-based (i.e. spring-summer) sea-surface temperature (SSTMg/Ca) and dinoflagellate cyst distributions. In general, extant species are shown to have comparable spring-summer SST ranges in the past and today, demonstrating that our new approach is valid for inferring spring-summer SST ranges for extinct species. For example, Habibacysta tectata represents SSTMg/Ca values between 10° and 15°C when it exceeds 30% of the assemblage, and Invertocysta lacrymosa exceeds 15% when SSTMg/Ca values are between 18.6° and 23.5°C. However, comparing Pliocene and Pleistocene SSTMg/Ca values with present day summer values for the extant Impagidinium pallidum suggests a greater tolerance of higher temperatures in the past. This species occupies more than 5% of the assemblage at SSTMg/Ca values of 11.6-17.9°C in the Pliocene and Pleistocene, whereas present day summer SSTs are around -1.7 to 6.9°C. This observation questions the value of Impagidinium pallidum as reliable indicator of cold waters in older deposits, and may explain its bipolar distribution.

Stable isotope record and lithic fragments distribution in sediments of MIS9-14 of the North Atlantic

Stable isotope and ice-rafted debris records from three core sites in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (IODP Site U1313, MD01-2446, MD03-2699) are combined with records of ODP Sites 1056/1058 and 980 to reconstruct hydrographic conditions during the middle Pleistocene spanning Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 9-14 (300-540 ka). Core MD03-2699 is the first high-resolution mid-Brunhes record from the North Atlantic's eastern boundary upwelling system covering the complete MIS 11c interval and MIS 13. The array of sites reflect western and eastern basin boundary current as well as north to south transect sampling of subpolar and transitional water masses and allow the reconstruction of transport pathways in the upper limb of the North Atlantic's circulation. Hydrographic conditions in the surface and deep ocean during peak interglacial MIS 9 and 11 were similar among all the sites with relative stable conditions and confirm prolonged warmth during MIS 11c also for the mid-latitudes. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions further reveal that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic MIS 11c is associated with two plateaus, the younger one of which is slightly warmer. Enhanced subsurface northward heat transport in the eastern boundary current system, especially during early MIS 11c, is denoted by the presence of tropical planktic foraminifer species and raises the question how strongly it impacted the Portuguese upwelling system. Deep water ventilation at the onset of MIS 11c significantly preceded surface water ventilation. Although MIS 13 was generally colder and more variable than the younger interglacials the surface water circulation scheme was the same. The greatest differences between the sites existed during the glacial inceptions and glacials. Then a north - south trending hydrographic front separated the nearshore and offshore waters off Portugal. While offshore waters originated from the North Atlantic Current as indicated by the similarities between the records of IODP Site U1313, ODP Site 980 and MD01-2446, nearshore waters as recorded in core MD03-2699 derived from the Azores Current and thus the subtropical gyre. Except for MIS 12, Azores Current influence seems to be related to eastern boundary system dynamics and not to changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation.

North Atlantic IODP Site 303-U1308 Middle Pleistocene Heinrich Events record

Heinrich events are well documented for the last glaciation, but little is known about their occurrence in older glacial periods of the Pleistocene. Here we report scanning XRF and bulk carbonate d18O results from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1308 (reoccupation of Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 609) that are used to develop proxy records of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) for the last ~1.4 Ma. Ca/Sr is used as an indicator of IRD layers that are rich in detrital carbonate (i.e., Heinrich layers), whereas Si/Sr reflects layers that are poor in biogenic carbonate and relatively rich in detrital silicate minerals. A pronounced change occurred in the composition and frequency of IRD at ~640 ka during marine isotope stage (MIS) 16, coinciding with the end of the middle Pleistocene transition. At this time, "Hudson Strait" Heinrich layers suddenly appeared in the sedimentary record of Site U1308, and the dominant period of the Si/Sr proxy shifted from 41 ka prior to 640 ka to 100 ka afterward. The onset of Heinrich layers during MIS 16 represents either the initiation of surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) off Hudson Strait or the first time icebergs produced by this process survived the transport to Site U1308. We speculate that ice volume (i.e., thickness) and duration surpassed a critical threshold during MIS 16 and activated the dynamical processes responsible for LIS instability in the region of Hudson Strait. We also observe a strong coupling between IRD proxies and benthic d13C variation at Site U1308 throughout the Pleistocene, supporting a link between iceberg discharge and weakening of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic.

Diatom isotope data (d18Odiatom and d30Sidiatom) from IODP Site 303-U1304 (North Atlantic)

The Last Interglacial (LIG), corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, provides a reference of interglacial climate variability in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Using an expanded section of the LIG gained at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1304 in the Subarctic Atlantic, we demonstrate that the early MIS 5e was marked by oceanographic conditions conducive for high diatom production and accumulation. The appearance of diatom-dominated laminated oozes ~3 k.y. after the beginning of MIS 5e at ca. 125 ka coincides with a shift to higher d30Sidiat values together with the dominance of Thalassiothrix longissima, indicative of increased nutrient availability and silicic acid utilization in surface waters. Though the Subarctic Front provided the physical conditions for high diatom production and deposition, these processes alone are insufficient to explain the high rates of siliceous productivity and the formation of diatomaceous sediments. Instead, the additional presence of an increased nutrient pool provided by Subantarctic Mode Water played the decisive role in initiating and sustaining diatom production. The high diatom productivity and the occurrence of diatomaceous sediments in the late Quaternary challenge the current hypothesis of a silica-depleted North Atlantic during the LIG.

(Appendix A) Oxygen and carbon isotope results of detrital carbonate grains of Heinrich layers from HU90-013-028 and IODP Sites 303-U1302/U1303/U1308 in the North Atlantic Ocean

We report oxygen and carbon isotope results of detrital carbonate grains from Heinrich layers at three sites in the North Atlantic located along a transect from the Labrador Sea to the eastern North Atlantic. Oxygen isotopic values of individual detrital carbonate grains from six Heinrich layers at all sites average - 5.6 ppm ± 1.5 ppm (1sigma; n = 166), reflecting values of dolomitic limestone derived from source areas in northeastern Canada. The d18O of bulk carbonate at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1308 (re-occupation of Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 609) in the eastern North Atlantic records the proportion of detrital to biogenic carbonate and d18O decreases to - 5 ppm during Heinrich (H) events 1, 2, 4 and 5 relative to a background value of ~ 1 to 2 ppm for biogenic carbonate. Bulk d18O also decreases during H3 and H6 but only attains values of - 1ppm, indicating either a greater proportion of biogenic-to-detrital carbonate or a different source. Because the d18O of detrital carbonate is ~ 9 ppm lower than foraminifer carbonate, any fine-grained detrital carbonate not removed from the inner test chambers will lower foraminifer d18O. We conclude bulk carbonate d18O is a sensitive proxy for detrital carbonate and may be useful for identifying Heinrich layers in cores within and near the margins of the North Atlantic ice-rafted detritus (IRD) belt.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

A study of the sensitivity of ocean overturning circulation and climate to freshwater input in different regions of the North Atlantic

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the climate system. Models indicate that the AMOC can be perturbed by freshwater forcing in the North Atlantic. Using an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, we investigate the dependence of such a perturbation of the AMOC, and the consequent climate change, on the region of freshwater forcing. A wide range of changes in AMOC strength is found after 100 years of freshwater forcing. The largest changes in AMOC strength occur when the regions of deepwater formation in the model are forced directly, although reductions in deepwater formation in one area may be compensated by enhanced formation elsewhere. North Atlantic average surface air temperatures correlate linearly with the AMOC decline, but warming may occur in localised regions, notably over Greenland and where deepwater formation is enhanced. This brings into question the representativeness of temperature changes inferred from Greenland ice-core records.