Joint importance of multistate systems

Importance measures in reliability engineering are used to identify weak areas of a system and signify the roles of components in either causing or contributing to proper functioning of the system. Traditional importance measures for multistate systems mainly concern reliability importance of an individual component and seldom consider the utility performance of the systems. This paper extends the joint importance concepts of two components from the binary system case to the multistate system case. A joint structural importance and a joint reliability importance are defined on the basis of the performance utility of the system. The joint structural importance measures the relationship of two components when the reliabilities of components are not available. The joint reliability importance is inferred when the reliabilities of the components are given. The properties of the importance measures are also investigated. A case study for an offshore electrical power generation system is given.

A semi-Markov multistate model for estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival for non-progressive processes

We discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models. We generalize an earlier work, considering the sojourn times in health states are not identically distributed, for a given vector of covariates. Approaches based on semiparametric and parametric (exponential and Weibull distributions) methodologies are considered. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to estimate the variance of such estimator. An application to a real data set is also included.

Estimation of the mean quality-adjusted survival using a multistate model for the sojourn times

In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Severe Aortic Stenosis Undergoing TAVI: A Multistate Analysis

Patients with severe aortic stenosis at increased surgical risk continue to experience compromised long-term survival despite successful transcatheter aortic valve implantation. We used time-related pathways in a multistate analysis to identify predictors of adverse long-term outcome in patients who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation.

On-off and multistate intermittencies in cascaded random distributed feedback fibre laser

A range of physical and engineering systems exhibit an irregular complex dynamics featuring alternation of quiet and burst time intervals called the intermittency. The intermittent dynamics most popular in laser science is the on-off intermittency [1]. The on-off intermittency can be understood as a conversion of the noise in a system close to an instability threshold into effective time-dependent fluctuations which result in the alternation of stable and unstable periods. The on-off intermittency has been recently demonstrated in semiconductor, Erbium doped and Raman lasers [2-5]. Recently demonstrated random distributed feedback (random DFB) fiber laser has an irregular dynamics near the generation threshold [6,7]. Here we show the intermittency in the cascaded random DFB fiber laser. We study intensity fluctuations in a random DFB fiber laser based on nitrogen doped fiber. The laser generates first and second Stokes components 1120 nm and 1180 nm respectively under an appropriate pumping. We study the intermittency in the radiation of the second Stokes wave. The typical time trace near the generation threshold of the second Stokes wave (Pth) is shown at Fig. 1a. From the number of long enough time-traces we calculate statistical distribution between major spikes in time dynamics, Fig. 1b. To eliminate contribution of high frequency components of spikes we use a low pass filter along with the reference value of the output power. Experimental data is fitted by power law, ~(P-Pth)y, where is a mean time between pikes. There are two different intermittency regimes. Just above Pth, the mean time is approximated by the -3/2 power law. The -3/2 power law is typical to the on-off intermittency with hopping between two states (first and second Stokes waves in our case) [7]. At higher power, the mean time is approximated by -4 power law, that indicates a change in intermittency type to multistate. Multistable dynamics is observed in erbium-doped fiber lasers [8]. The origin of multiples states in our system could be probably connected with polarization hopping or other reasons and should be further investigated. We have presented a first experimental statistical characterisation of the on-off and multistate intermittencies that occur in the generation of the second Stokes wave in nitrogen doped random DFB fiber laser. References [1] H. Fujisaka and T. Yamada, “A New Intermittency in Coupled Dynamical Systems,” Prog. Theor. Phys. 74, 918 (1985). [2] S. Osborne, A. Amann, D. Bitauld, and S. O’Brien, “On-off intermittency in an optically injected semiconductor laser,” Phys. Rev. E 85, 056204 (2012). [3] S. Sergeyev, K. O'Mahoney, S. Popov, and A. T. Friberg, “Coherence and anticoherence resonance in high-concentration erbium-doped fiber laser,” Opt. Lett. 35, 3736 (2010). [4] A.E. El-Taher, S.V. Sergeyev, E.G. Turitsyna, P. Harper, and S. K. Turitsyn, “Intermittent Self-Pulsing in a Fiber Raman Laser”, In proc. Conf. Nonlin. Photon., paper ID 1367139, Colorado Springs, USA, 2012 [5] S.K. Turitsyn, S.A. Babin, A.E. El-Taher, P. Harper, D.V. Churkin, S.I. Kablukov, J.D. Ania-Castañón, V. Karalekas, and E.V. Podivilov, “Random distributed feedback fibre laser”, Nat. Photon..4, 231 (2010). [6] I. D. Vatnik, D. V. Churkin, S. A. Babin, and S. K. Turitsyn, "Cascaded random distributed feedback Raman fiber laser operating at 1.2 μm," Opt. Express 19, 18486 (2011). [7] W. Feller, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, Vol. 1, 3rd ed. (Wiley, New-York, 1968). [8] G. Huerta-Cuellar, A.N. Pisarchik, and Y.O. Barmenkov, “Experimental characterization of hopping dynamics in a multistable fiber laser,” Phys. Rev. E 78, 035202(R) (2008).

Spatiotemporal control over the co-conformational switching in pH-responsive flavylium-based multistate pseudorotaxanes

A multistate molecular dyad containing flavylium and viologen units was synthesized and the pH dependent thermodynamics of the network completely characterized by a variety of spectroscopic techniques such as NMR, UV-vis and stopped-flow. The flavylium cation is only stable at acidic pH values. Above pH ≈ 5 the hydration of the flavylium leads to the formation of the hemiketal followed by ring-opening tautomerization to give the cis-chalcone. Finally, this last species isomerizes to give the trans-chalcone. For the present system only the flavylium cation and the trans-chalcone species could be detected as being thermodynamically stable. The hemiketal and the cis-chalcone are kinetic intermediates with negligible concentrations at the equilibrium. All stable species of the network were found to form 1 : 1 and 2 : 1 host : guest complexes with cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) with association constants in the ranges 10(5)-10(8) M(-1) and 10(3)-10(4) M(-1), respectively. The 1 : 1 complexes were particularly interesting to devise pH responsive bistable pseudorotaxanes: at basic pH values (≈12) the flavylium cation interconverts into the deprotonated trans-chalcone in a few minutes and under these conditions the CB7 wheel was found to be located around the viologen unit. A decrease in pH to values around 1 regenerates the flavylium cation in seconds and the macrocycle is translocated to the middle of the axle. On the other hand, if the pH is decreased to 6, the deprotonated trans-chalcone is neutralized to give a metastable species that evolves to the thermodynamically stable flavylium cation in ca. 20 hours. By taking advantage of the pH-dependent kinetics of the trans-chalcone/flavylium interconversion, spatiotemporal control of the molecular organization in pseudorotaxane systems can be achieved.

Reversible Photorheology in Solutions of Cetyltrimethylammonium Bromide, Salicylic Acid, and trans-2,4,4 '-Trihydroxychalcone

We show photorheology in aqueous solutions of weakly entangled wormlike micelles prepared with cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), salicylic acid (HSal), and dilute amounts of the photochromic multistate compound trans-2,4,4'-trihydroxychalcone (Ct). Different chemical species of Ct are associated with different colorations and propensities to reside within or outside CTAB micelles. A light-induced transfer between the intra- and intermicellar space is used to alter the mean length of wormlike micelles and hence the rheological properties of the fluid, studied in steady-state shear Bow and in dynamic rheological measurements. Light-induced changes of fluid rheology are reversible by a the relaxation process. at relaxation rates which depend on pH and which are consistent with photochromic reversion rates measured by UV-vis absorption spectroscopy. Parameterizing viscoelostic rheological states by their effective relaxation time tau(c) and corresponding response modulus G(c), we find the light and dark states of the system to fall onto a characteristic state curve defined by comparable experiments conducted without photosensitive components. These reference experiments were prepared with the same concentration of CTAB, but different concentrations of HSal or sodium salicylote (NaSal), and tested at different temperatures.

Chemical reaction network of flavylium ions in heterogeneous media

Dissertação apresentada para a obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química, especialidade em Química-Física, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Multiresponsive supramolecular systems for information processing at the molecular level

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Química Sustentável

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Morphological cladistic analysis of Pseudobombax Dugand (Malvaceae, Bombacoideae) and allied genera

(Morphological cladistic analysis of Pseudobombax Dugand (Malvaceae, Bombacoideae) and allied genera). Pseudobombax Dugand belongs to the family Malvaceae subfamily Bombacoideae and aggregates 29 species restricted to the Neotropics. A morphological cladistic analysis of Pseudobombax and allied genera was carried out to test the monophyly of the genus and to provide hypotheses on its phylogeny. Parsimony analyses were based on 40 morphological characters and 28 species, 14 belonging to Pseudobombax and 14 to other species of Bombacoideae, Matisieae (Malvoideae) and Ochromeae. Nine most parsimonious trees (144 steps, ci 0.40, ri 0.67) were produced when 10 multistate characters were taken as ordered while only two most parsimonious trees (139 steps, ci 0.41, ri 0.67) were obtained when all characters were considered as unordered. Pseudobombax monophyly had moderate bootstrap support, appearing as sister to a clade composed of the genera Bombacopsis Pittier and Pachira Aubl., or to the genus Bombax L. according to the analysis. The petiole widened at the apex and the leaflets not jointed to the petiole are probably synapomorphies of Pseudobombax. Three main clades were found in the genus: one characterised by petiolulated leaflets and 5-angular fruits, the other by pubescent leaves and calyx, and the other by reduction of the number of leaflets. The latter includes species endemic to the Brazilian semi-arid region also characterised by the absence of phalanges in the androecium. Interspecific affinities in Pseudobombax as well as the morphological evolution in Bombacoideae are discussed.

Les problèmes posés par la multiplicité de lois applicables dans les recours collectifs internationaux engagés à la suite d'accidents à grande échelle

Sous l'ère moderne, où le commerce n'a plus de frontières physiques, les catastrophes causant des dommages à grande échelle se sont multipliées. Lorsque de telles catastrophes surviennent, l'utilisation de procédures de recours collectif pour juger de l'ensemble des litiges semble être la solution indiquée. Pourtant, l'expérience nous démontre qu'il n'en est rien... Bien que le même événement cause des dommages à de multiples victimes, le recours judiciaire demeure l'exercice d'un droit personnel. Le tribunal devra alors rechercher l'application de règles matérielles spécifiques à ce recours. En l'absence de règles spécifiques, les règles de conflit de lois du tribunal saisi seront applicables. Or, ces règles ne sont pas uniformes et entraînent une multiplicité de lois applicables. Conséquemment, il est opportun de s'interroger sur la pertinence de réunir des recours individuels en un seul recours. L'expérience américaine nous démontre les difficultés engendrées par la multiplicité de lois applicables à un recours collectif, bien que des solutions législatives et jurisprudentielles aient été proposées. Ces solutions demeurent imparfaites, tant au niveau de leur constitutionalité que du respect des droits fondamentaux. Devant la complexité occasionnée par le regroupement de ces litiges, les tribunaux sont réfractaires à leur autorisation, dès lors qu'une multiplicité de lois applicables est démontrée. Ainsi, la solution juridique la mieux adaptée aux recours collectifs internationaux demeure celle de saisir les tribunaux, de plusieurs recours collectifs distincts; chacun regroupé en fonction de la loi applicable à chaque recours, déterminée, au préalable, par l'analyse des règles de conflit de lois du tribunal saisi.

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Regression analysis of mean quality-adjusted survival time based on pseudo-observations

Regression models for the mean quality-adjusted survival time are specified from hazard functions of transitions between two states and the mean quality-adjusted survival time may be a complex function of covariates. We discuss a regression model for the mean quality-adjusted survival (QAS) time based on pseudo-observations, which has the advantage of directly modeling the effect of covariates in the QAS time. Both Monte Carlo Simulations and a real data set are studied. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.