Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES): a Multi Scale Social Indicator Framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a trans-disciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analysing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward towards the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made.

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide cultural ecosystem services (CES): A multi scale social indicator framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a transdisciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analyzing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward toward the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made

A new perspective on service quality: A multi-dimensional, hierarchical scale

This study offers a new perspective on the nature, content and structure of perceived service quality. The Nordic and Gap schools of quality assessment are integrated with recent advances in the literature to develop and test a multidimensional, hierarchical scale. The scale provides a framework for assessing service quality within a high involvement, high contact, ongoing service environment. Empirical results indicated that service quality conforms to a multidimensional, hierarchical structure consisting of four primary dimensions, which in turn comprise nine sub-dimensions. The results obtained extend our understanding of service evaluation and have important implications for service providers seeking to improve the quality of the services they provide.

Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

A multi-scale framework for strategic management of diffuse pollution

A multi-scale framework for decision support is presented that uses a combination of experiments, models, communication, education and decision support tools to arrive at a realistic strategy to minimise diffuse pollution. Effective partnerships between researchers and stakeholders play a key part in successful implementation of this strategy. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is introduced as a set of visualisations that can be used at all scales, both to inform decision making and as a communication tool in stakeholder workshops. A demonstration farm is presented and one of its fields is taken as a case study. Hydrological and nutrient flow path models are used for event based simulation (TOPCAT), catchment scale modelling (INCA) and field scale flow visualisation (TopManage). One of the DSMs; The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is discussed in detail. The PERM was developed iteratively as a point of discussion in stakeholder workshops, as a decision support and education tool. The resulting interactive PERM contains a set of questions and proposed remediation measures that reflect both expert and local knowledge. Education and visualisation tools such as GIS, risk indicators, TopManage and the PERM are found to be invaluable in communicating improved farming practice to stakeholders. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A multi-purpose grammar generating a multi-scale integrated analysis of Laos

In this study we propose an application of the MuSIASEM approach which is used to provide an integrated analysis of Laos across different scales. With the term “integrated analysis across scales” we mean the generation of a series of packages of quantitative indicators, characterizing the performance of the socioeconomic activities performed in Laos when considering: (i) different hierarchical levels of organization (farming systems described at the level of household, rural villages, regions of Laos, the whole country level); and (ii) different dimensions of analysis (economic dimension, social dimension, ecological dimension, technical dimension). What is relevant in this application is that the information carried out by these different packages of indicators is integrated in a system of accounting which establishes interlinkages across these indicators. This is a essential feature to study sustainability trade-offs and to build more robust scenarios of possible changes. The multi-scale integrated representation presented in this study is based on secondary data (gathered in a three year EU project – SEAtrans and integrated by other available statistical sources) and it is integrated in GIS, when dealing with the spatial representation of Laos. However, even if we use data referring to Laos, the goal of this study is not that of providing useful information about a practical policy issue of Laos, but rather, to illustrate the possibility of using a multipurpose grammar to produce an integrated set of sustainability indicators at three different levels: (i) local; (ii) meso; (iii) macro level. The technical issue addressed is the simultaneous adoption of two multi-level matrices – one referring to a characterization of human activity over a set of different categories, and another referring to a characterization of land uses over the same set of categories. In this way, it becomes possible to explain the characteristics of Laos (an integrated set of indicators defining the performance of the whole country) in relation to the characteristics of the rural Laos and urban Laos. The characteristics of rural Laos, can be explained using the characteristics of three regions defined within Laos (Northern Laos, Central Laos and Southern Laos), which in turn can be defined (using an analogous package of indicators), starting from the characteristics of three main typologies of farming systems found in the regions.

A first attempt of geographically-distributed Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM): mapping human time and energy throughput in metropolitan Barcelona

This study presents a first attempt to extend the “Multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM)” approach to a spatial dimension using GIS techniques in the Metropolitan area of Barcelona. We use a combination of census and commercial databases along with a detailed land cover map to create a layer of Common Geographic Units that we populate with the local values of human time spent in different activities according to MuSIASEM hierarchical typology. In this way, we mapped the hours of available human time, in regards to the working hours spent in different locations, putting in evidence the gradients in spatial density between the residential location of workers (generating the work supply) and the places where the working hours are actually taking place. We found a strong three-modal pattern of clumps of areas with different combinations of values of time spent on household activities and on paid work. We also measured and mapped spatial segregation between these two activities and put forward the conjecture that this segregation increases with higher energy throughput, as the size of the functional units must be able to cope with the flow of exosomatic energy. Finally, we discuss the effectiveness of the approach by comparing our geographic representation of exosomatic throughput to the one issued from conventional methods.

Multi-scale integration and predictability in resting state brain activity.

The human brain displays heterogeneous organization in both structure and function. Here we develop a method to characterize brain regions and networks in terms of information-theoretic measures. We look at how these measures scale when larger spatial regions as well as larger connectome sub-networks are considered. This framework is applied to human brain fMRI recordings of resting-state activity and DSI-inferred structural connectivity. We find that strong functional coupling across large spatial distances distinguishes functional hubs from unimodal low-level areas, and that this long-range functional coupling correlates with structural long-range efficiency on the connectome. We also find a set of connectome regions that are both internally integrated and coupled to the rest of the brain, and which resemble previously reported resting-state networks. Finally, we argue that information-theoretic measures are useful for characterizing the functional organization of the brain at multiple scales.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of Gaussian multi-scale representation to feature tracking in meteorological satellite imagery

Gaussian multi-scale representation is a mathematical framework that allows to analyse images at different scales in a consistent manner, and to handle derivatives in a way deeply connected to scale. This paper uses Gaussian multi-scale representation to investigate several aspects of the derivation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapour imagery. The contribution of different spatial frequencies to the tracking is studied, for a range of tracer sizes, and a number of tracer selection methods are presented and compared, using WV 6.2 images from the geostationary satellite MSG-2.

Horn-schunck optical flow with a multi-scale strategy

[EN] The seminal work of Horn and Schunck [8] is the first variational method for optical flow estimation. It introduced a novel framework where the optical flow is computed as the solution of a minimization problem. From the assumption that pixel intensities do not change over time, the optical flow constraint equation is derived. This equation relates the optical flow with the derivatives of the image. There are infinitely many vector fields that satisfy the optical flow constraint, thus the problem is ill-posed. To overcome this problem, Horn and Schunck introduced an additional regularity condition that restricts the possible solutions. Their method minimizes both the optical flow constraint and the magnitude of the variations of the flow field, producing smooth vector fields. One of the limitations of this method is that, typically, it can only estimate small motions. In the presence of large displacements, this method fails when the gradient of the image is not smooth enough. In this work, we describe an implementation of the original Horn and Schunck method and also introduce a multi-scale strategy in order to deal with larger displacements. For this multi-scale strategy, we create a pyramidal structure of downsampled images and change the optical flow constraint equation with a nonlinear formulation. In order to tackle this nonlinear formula, we linearize it and solve the method iteratively in each scale. In this sense, there are two common approaches: one that computes the motion increment in the iterations, like in ; or the one we follow, that computes the full flow during the iterations, like in. The solutions are incrementally refined ower the scales. This pyramidal structure is a standard tool in many optical flow methods.

A smart multi-hop hierarchical routing protocol for efficient video communication over wireless multimedia sensor networks

For smart applications, nodes in wireless multimedia sensor networks (MWSNs) have to take decisions based on sensed scalar physical measurements. A routing protocol must provide the multimedia delivery with quality level support and be energy-efficient for large-scale networks. With this goal in mind, this paper proposes a smart Multi-hop hierarchical routing protocol for Efficient VIdeo communication (MEVI). MEVI combines an opportunistic scheme to create clusters, a cross-layer solution to select routes based on network conditions, and a smart solution to trigger multimedia transmission according to sensed data. Simulations were conducted to show the benefits of MEVI compared with the well-known Low-Energy Adaptive Clustering Hierarchy (LEACH) protocol. This paper includes an analysis of the signaling overhead, energy-efficiency, and video quality.

Methods for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics from fluorescence microscopy images

La embriogénesis es el proceso mediante el cual una célula se convierte en un ser un vivo. A lo largo de diferentes etapas de desarrollo, la población de células va proliferando a la vez que el embrión va tomando forma y se configura. Esto es posible gracias a la acción de varios procesos genéticos, bioquímicos y mecánicos que interaccionan y se regulan entre ellos formando un sistema complejo que se organiza a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Este proceso ocurre de manera robusta y reproducible, pero también con cierta variabilidad que permite la diversidad de individuos de una misma especie. La aparición de la microscopía de fluorescencia, posible gracias a proteínas fluorescentes que pueden ser adheridas a las cadenas de expresión de las células, y los avances en la física óptica de los microscopios han permitido observar este proceso de embriogénesis in-vivo y generar secuencias de imágenes tridimensionales de alta resolución espacio-temporal. Estas imágenes permiten el estudio de los procesos de desarrollo embrionario con técnicas de análisis de imagen y de datos, reconstruyendo dichos procesos para crear la representación de un embrión digital. Una de las más actuales problemáticas en este campo es entender los procesos mecánicos, de manera aislada y en interacción con otros factores como la expresión genética, para que el embrión se desarrolle. Debido a la complejidad de estos procesos, estos problemas se afrontan mediante diferentes técnicas y escalas específicas donde, a través de experimentos, pueden hacerse y confrontarse hipótesis, obteniendo conclusiones sobre el funcionamiento de los mecanismos estudiados. Esta tesis doctoral se ha enfocado sobre esta problemática intentando mejorar las metodologías del estado del arte y con un objetivo específico: estudiar patrones de deformación que emergen del movimiento organizado de las células durante diferentes estados del desarrollo del embrión, de manera global o en tejidos concretos. Estudios se han centrado en la mecánica en relación con procesos de señalización o interacciones a nivel celular o de tejido. En este trabajo, se propone un esquema para generalizar el estudio del movimiento y las interacciones mecánicas que se desprenden del mismo a diferentes escalas espaciales y temporales. Esto permitiría no sólo estudios locales, si no estudios sistemáticos de las escalas de interacción mecánica dentro de un embrión. Por tanto, el esquema propuesto obvia las causas de generación de movimiento (fuerzas) y se centra en la cuantificación de la cinemática (deformación y esfuerzos) a partir de imágenes de forma no invasiva. Hoy en día las dificultades experimentales y metodológicas y la complejidad de los sistemas biológicos impiden una descripción mecánica completa de manera sistemática. Sin embargo, patrones de deformación muestran el resultado de diferentes factores mecánicos en interacción con otros elementos dando lugar a una organización mecánica, necesaria para el desarrollo, que puede ser cuantificado a partir de la metodología propuesta en esta tesis. La metodología asume un medio continuo descrito de forma Lagrangiana (en función de las trayectorias de puntos materiales que se mueven en el sistema en lugar de puntos espaciales) de la dinámica del movimiento, estimado a partir de las imágenes mediante métodos de seguimiento de células o de técnicas de registro de imagen. Gracias a este esquema es posible describir la deformación instantánea y acumulada respecto a un estado inicial para cualquier dominio del embrión. La aplicación de esta metodología a imágenes 3D + t del pez zebra sirvió para desvelar estructuras mecánicas que tienden a estabilizarse a lo largo del tiempo en dicho embrión, y que se organizan a una escala semejante al del mapa de diferenciación celular y con indicios de correlación con patrones de expresión genética. También se aplicó la metodología al estudio del tejido amnioserosa de la Drosophila (mosca de la fruta) durante el cierre dorsal, obteniendo indicios de un acoplamiento entre escalas subcelulares, celulares y supracelulares, que genera patrones complejos en respuesta a la fuerza generada por los esqueletos de acto-myosina. En definitiva, esta tesis doctoral propone una estrategia novedosa de análisis de la dinámica celular multi-escala que permite cuantificar patrones de manera inmediata y que además ofrece una representación que reconstruye la evolución de los procesos como los ven las células, en lugar de como son observados desde el microscopio. Esta metodología por tanto permite nuevas formas de análisis y comparación de embriones y tejidos durante la embriogénesis a partir de imágenes in-vivo. ABSTRACT The embryogenesis is the process from which a single cell turns into a living organism. Through several stages of development, the cell population proliferates at the same time the embryo shapes and the organs develop gaining their functionality. This is possible through genetic, biochemical and mechanical factors that are involved in a complex interaction of processes organized in different levels and in different spatio-temporal scales. The embryogenesis, through this complexity, develops in a robust and reproducible way, but allowing variability that makes possible the diversity of living specimens. The advances in physics of microscopes and the appearance of fluorescent proteins that can be attached to expression chains, reporting about structural and functional elements of the cell, have enabled for the in-vivo observation of embryogenesis. The imaging process results in sequences of high spatio-temporal resolution 3D+time data of the embryogenesis as a digital representation of the embryos that can be further analyzed, provided new image processing and data analysis techniques are developed. One of the most relevant and challenging lines of research in the field is the quantification of the mechanical factors and processes involved in the shaping process of the embryo and their interactions with other embryogenesis factors such as genetics. Due to the complexity of the processes, studies have focused on specific problems and scales controlled in the experiments, posing and testing hypothesis to gain new biological insight. However, methodologies are often difficult to be exported to study other biological phenomena or specimens. This PhD Thesis is framed within this paradigm of research and tries to propose a systematic methodology to quantify the emergent deformation patterns from the motion estimated in in-vivo images of embryogenesis. Thanks to this strategy it would be possible to quantify not only local mechanisms, but to discover and characterize the scales of mechanical organization within the embryo. The framework focuses on the quantification of the motion kinematics (deformation and strains), neglecting the causes of the motion (forces), from images in a non-invasive way. Experimental and methodological challenges hamper the quantification of exerted forces and the mechanical properties of tissues. However, a descriptive framework of deformation patterns provides valuable insight about the organization and scales of the mechanical interactions, along the embryo development. Such a characterization would help to improve mechanical models and progressively understand the complexity of embryogenesis. This framework relies on a Lagrangian representation of the cell dynamics system based on the trajectories of points moving along the deformation. This approach of analysis enables the reconstruction of the mechanical patterning as experienced by the cells and tissues. Thus, we can build temporal profiles of deformation along stages of development, comprising both the instantaneous events and the cumulative deformation history. The application of this framework to 3D + time data of zebrafish embryogenesis allowed us to discover mechanical profiles that stabilized through time forming structures that organize in a scale comparable to the map of cell differentiation (fate map), and also suggesting correlation with genetic patterns. The framework was also applied to the analysis of the amnioserosa tissue in the drosophila’s dorsal closure, revealing that the oscillatory contraction triggered by the acto-myosin network organized complexly coupling different scales: local force generation foci, cellular morphology control mechanisms and tissue geometrical constraints. In summary, this PhD Thesis proposes a theoretical framework for the analysis of multi-scale cell dynamics that enables to quantify automatically mechanical patterns and also offers a new representation of the embryo dynamics as experienced by cells instead of how the microscope captures instantaneously the processes. Therefore, this framework enables for new strategies of quantitative analysis and comparison between embryos and tissues during embryogenesis from in-vivo images.

A multi-scale analysis of transforming agricultural markets in the context of globalization: implications for natural resources, food prices and rural poverty in Latin America

Vivimos una época en la que el mundo se transforma aceleradamente. La globalización está siguiendo un curso imparable, la población mundial así como la población urbana siguen creciendo, y en los países emergentes los ingresos promedios aumentan, resultando en un cambio también acelerado de las dietas y hábitos alimentarios. En conjunto esos factores están causando un aumento fundamental de la demanda de alimentos. Junto con la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, estos procesos han provocado un crecimiento del comercio internacional de alimentos durante la última década. Dado que muchos países de América Latina están dotados de abundancia de recursos naturales, estas tendencias han producido un crecimiento rápido de las exportaciones de bienes primarios desde América Latina al resto del mundo. En sólo 30 años la participación en el mercado agrícola de América Latina casi se ha duplicado, desde 10% en 1980 a 18% en 2010. Este aumento del comercio agrícola ha dado lugar a un debate sobre una serie de cuestiones cruciales relacionadas con los impactos del comercio en la seguridad alimentaria mundial, en el medio ambiente o en la reducción de la pobreza rural en países en desarrollo. Esta tesis aplica un marco integrado para analizar varios impactos relacionados con la transformación de los mercados agrícolas y los mercados rurales debidos a la globalización y, en particular, al progresivo aumento del comercio internacional. En concreto, la tesis aborda los siguientes temas: En primer lugar, la producción mundial de alimentos tendrá que aumentar considerablemente para poder satisfacer la demanda de una población mundial de 9000 millones personas en 2050, lo cual plantea grandes desafíos sobre los sistemas de la producción de alimentos. Alcanzar este logro, sin comprometer la integridad del medio ambiente en regiones exportadoras, es un reto aún mayor. En este contexto, la tesis analiza los efectos de la liberalización del comercio mundial, considerando distintas tecnologías de producción agraria, sobre unos indicadores de seguridad alimentaria en diferentes regiones del mundo y sobre distintos indicadores ambientales, teniendo en cuenta escalas diferentes en América Latina y el Caribe. La tesis utiliza el modelo “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)” – un modelo dinámico de equilibrio parcial del sector agrícola a escala global – para modelar la apertura de los mercados agrícolas así como diferentes escenarios de la producción hasta el año 2050. Los resultados del modelo están vinculados a modelos biofísicos para poder evaluar los cambios en la huella hídrica y la calidad del agua, así como para cuantificar los impactos del cambio en el uso del suelo sobre la biodiversidad y los stocks de carbono en 2050. Los resultados indican que la apertura de los mercados agrícolas es muy importante para mejorar la seguridad alimentaria a nivel mundial, sin embargo, produce también presiones ambientales indeseables en algunas regiones de América Latina. Contrastando dos escenarios que consideran distintas modos de producción, la expansión de la tierra agrícola frente a un escenario de la producción más intensiva, se demuestra que las mejoras de productividad son generalmente superiores a la expansión de las tierras agrícolas, desde un punto de vista económico e ambiental. En cambio, los escenarios de intensificación sostenible no sólo hacen posible una mayor producción de alimentos, sino que también generan menos impactos medioambientales que los otros escenarios futuros en todas sus dimensiones: biodiversidad, carbono, emisiones de nitratos y uso del agua. El análisis muestra que hay un “trade-off” entre el objetivo de alcanzar la sostenibilidad ambiental y el objetivo de la seguridad alimentaria, independiente del manejo agrícola en el futuro. En segundo lugar, a la luz de la reciente crisis de los precios de alimentos en los años 2007/08, la tesis analiza los impactos de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas en la transmisión de precios de los alimentos en seis países de América Latina: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y el Perú. Para identificar las posibles relaciones de cointegración entre los índices de precios al consumidor de alimentos y los índices de precios de agrarios internacionales, sujetos a diferentes grados de apertura de mercados agrícolas en los seis países de América Latina, se utiliza un modelo simple de corrección de error (single equation error correction). Los resultados indican que la integración global de los mercados agrícolas ha dado lugar a diferentes tasas de transmisión de precios en los países investigados. Sobre todo en el corto plazo, las tasas de transmisión dependen del grado de apertura comercial, mientras que en el largo plazo las tasas de transmisión son elevadas, pero en gran medida independientes del régimen de comercio. Por lo tanto, durante un período de shocks de precios mundiales una mayor apertura del comercio trae consigo más inestabilidad de los precios domésticos a corto plazo y la resultante persistencia en el largo plazo. Sin embargo, estos resultados no verifican necesariamente la utilidad de las políticas comerciales, aplicadas frecuentemente por los gobiernos para amortiguar los shocks de precios. Primero, porque existe un riesgo considerable de volatilidad de los precios debido a cambios bruscos de la oferta nacional si se promueve la autosuficiencia en el país; y segundo, la política de proteccionismo asume el riesgo de excluir el país de participar en las cadenas de suministro de alto valor del sector agrícola, y por lo tanto esa política podría obstaculizar el desarrollo económico. Sin embargo, es indispensable establecer políticas efectivas para reducir la vulnerabilidad de los hogares a los aumentos repentinos de precios de alimentos, lo cual requiere una planificación gubernamental precisa con el presupuesto requerido disponible. En tercer lugar, la globalización afecta a la estructura de una economía y, por medios distintos, la distribución de los ingreso en un país. Perú sirve como ejemplo para investigar más profundamente las cuestiones relacionadas con los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en zonas rurales. Perú, que es un país que está cada vez más integrado en los mercados mundiales, consiguió importantes descensos en la pobreza extrema en sus zonas rurales, pero a la vez adolece de alta incidencia de pobreza moderada y de desigualdad de los ingresos en zonas rural al menos durante el periodo comprendido entre 2004 y 2012. Esta parte de la tesis tiene como objetivo identificar las fuerzas impulsoras detrás de estas dinámicas en el Perú mediante el uso de un modelo de microsimulación basado en modelos de generación de ingresos aplicado a nivel los hogares rurales. Los resultados indican que la fuerza principal detrás de la reducción de la pobreza ha sido el crecimiento económico general de la economía, debido a las condiciones macroeconómicas favorables durante el periodo de estudio. Estos efectos de crecimiento beneficiaron a casi todos los sectores rurales, y dieron lugar a la disminución de la pobreza rural extrema, especialmente entre los agricultores de papas y de maíz. En parte, estos agricultores probablemente se beneficiaron de la apertura de los mercados agrícolas, que es lo que podría haber provocado un aumento de los precios al productor en tiempos de altos precios mundiales de los alimentos. Sin embargo, los resultados también sugieren que para una gran parte de la población más pobre existían barreras de entrada a la hora de poder participar en el empleo asalariado fuera de la agricultura o en la producción de cultivos de alto valor. Esto podría explicarse por la falta de acceso a unos activos importantes: por ejemplo, el nivel de educación de los pobres era apenas mejor en 2012 que en 2004; y también las dotaciones de tierra y de mano de obra, sobre todo de los productores pobres de maíz y patata, disminuyeron entre 2004 y 2012. Esto lleva a la conclusión de que aún hay margen para aplicar políticas para facilitar el acceso a estos activos, que podría contribuir a la erradicación de la pobreza rural. La tesis concluye que el comercio agrícola puede ser un importante medio para abastecer una población mundial creciente y más rica con una cantidad suficiente de calorías. Para evitar adversos efectos ambientales e impactos negativos para los consumidores y de los productores pobres, el enfoque debe centrarse en las mejoras de la productividad agrícola, teniendo en cuenta los límites ambientales y ser socialmente inclusivo. En este sentido, será indispensable seguir desarrollando soluciones tecnológicas que garanticen prácticas de producción agrícola minimizando el uso de recursos naturales. Además, para los pequeños pobres agricultores será fundamental eliminar las barreras de entrada a los mercados de exportación que podría tener efectos indirectos favorables a través de la adopción de nuevas tecnologías alcanzables a través de mercados internacionales. ABSTRACT The world is in a state of rapid transition. Ongoing globalization, population growth, rising living standards and increasing urbanization, accompanied by changing dietary patterns throughout the world, are increasing the demand for food. Together with more open trade regimes, this has triggered growing international agricultural trade during the last decade. For many Latin American countries, which are gifted with relative natural resource abundance, these trends have fueled rapid export growth of primary goods. In just 30 years, the Latin American agricultural market share has almost doubled from 10% in 1980 to 18% in 2010. These market developments have given rise to a debate around a number of crucial issues related to the role of agricultural trade for global food security, for the environment or for poverty reduction in developing countries. This thesis uses an integrated framework to analyze a broad array of possible impacts related to transforming agricultural and rural markets in light of globalization, and in particular of increasing trade activity. Specifically, the following issues are approached: First, global food production will have to rise substantially by the year 2050 to meet effective demand of a nine billion people world population which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity in exporting regions is an even greater challenge. In this context, the thesis explores the effects of future global trade liberalization on food security indicators in different world regions and on a variety of environmental indicators at different scales in Latin America and the Caribbean, in due consideration of different future agricultural production practices. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) –a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)– is applied to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050. Model results are linked to biophysical models, used to assess changes in water footprints and water quality, as well as impacts on biodiversity and carbon stocks from land use change by 2050. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Most promising for achieving food security and environmental goals, in equal measure, is the sustainable intensification scenario. However, the analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. Second, in light of the recent food price crisis of 2007/08, the thesis looks at the impacts of increasing agricultural market integration on food price transmission from global to domestic markets in six Latin American countries, namely Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. To identify possible cointegrating relationships between the domestic food consumer price indices and world food price levels, subject to different degrees of agricultural market integration in the six Latin American countries, a single equation error correction model is used. Results suggest that global agricultural market integration has led to different levels of price path-through in the studied countries. Especially in the short-run, transmission rates depend on the degree of trade openness, while in the long-run transmission rates are high, but largely independent of the country-specific trade regime. Hence, under world price shocks more trade openness brings with it more price instability in the short-term and the resulting persistence in the long-term. However, these findings do not necessarily verify the usefulness of trade policies, often applied by governments to buffer such price shocks. First, because there is a considerable risk of price volatility due to domestic supply shocks if self-sufficiency is promoted. Second, protectionism bears the risk of excluding a country from participating in beneficial high-value agricultural supply chains, thereby hampering economic development. Nevertheless, to reduce households’ vulnerability to sudden and large increases of food prices, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. Third, globalization affects the structure of an economy and, by different means, the distribution of income in a country. Peru serves as an example to dive deeper into questions related to changes in the income distribution in rural areas. Peru, a country being increasingly integrated into global food markets, experienced large drops in extreme rural poverty, but persistently high rates of moderate rural poverty and rural income inequality between 2004 and 2012. The thesis aims at disentangling the driving forces behind these dynamics by using a microsimulation model based on rural household income generation models. Results provide evidence that the main force behind poverty reduction was overall economic growth of the economy due to generally favorable macroeconomic market conditions. These growth effects benefited almost all rural sectors, and led to declines in extreme rural poverty, especially among potato and maize farmers. In part, these farmers probably benefited from policy changes towards more open trade regimes and the resulting higher producer prices in times of elevated global food price levels. However, the results also suggest that entry barriers existed for the poorer part of the population to participate in well-paid wage-employment outside of agriculture or in high-value crop production. This could be explained by a lack of sufficient access to important rural assets. For example, poor people’s educational attainment was hardly better in 2012 than in 2004. Also land and labor endowments, especially of (poor) maize and potato growers, rather decreased than increased over time. This leads to the conclusion that there is still scope for policy action to facilitate access to these assets, which could contribute to the eradication of rural poverty. The thesis concludes that agricultural trade can be one important means to provide a growing and richer world population with sufficient amounts of calories. To avoid adverse environmental effects and negative impacts for poor food consumers and producers, the focus should lie on agricultural productivity improvements, considering environmental limits and be socially inclusive. In this sense, it will be crucial to further develop technological solutions that guarantee resource-sparing agricultural production practices, and to remove entry barriers for small poor farmers to export markets which might allow for technological spill-over effects from high-value global agricultural supply chains.