On a distinction between casual and formative variable models:theoretical issues and practical implications for organizational researchers

Formative measurement has seen increasing acceptance in organizational research since the turn of the 21st Century. However, in more recent times, a number of criticisms of the formative approach have appeared. Such work argues that formatively-measured constructs are empirically ambiguous and thus flawed in a theory-testing context. The aim of the present paper is to examine the underpinnings of formative measurement theory in light of theories of causality and ontology in measurement in general. In doing so, a thesis is advanced which draws a distinction between reflective, formative, and causal theories of latent variables. This distinction is shown to be advantageous in that it clarifies the ontological status of each type of latent variable, and thus provides advice on appropriate conceptualization and application. The distinction also reconciles in part both recent supportive and critical perspectives on formative measurement. In light of this, advice is given on how most appropriately to model formative composites in theory-testing applications, placing the onus on the researcher to make clear their conceptualization and operationalisation.

Theoretical model for a periodically driven semiconductor laser subject to optical feedback from a microcantilever

We propose a theoretical model for analyzing the dynamics of a periodically driven semiconductor laser subject to optical feedback from a microcantilever. We numerically investigate the temporal evolution of the light intensity of the semiconductor laser, and we show the interspikes of the light intensity. These interspikes of light intensity are also demonstrated in our experiment. The validity of the theoretical model is verified. The observed phenomenon has a potential application for resonant sensing. (C) 2008 Optical Society of America.

New business models for antibiotic innovation.

The increase in antibiotic resistance and the dearth of novel antibiotics have become a growing concern among policy-makers. A combination of financial, scientific, and regulatory challenges poses barriers to antibiotic innovation. However, each of these three challenges provides an opportunity to develop pathways for new business models to bring novel antibiotics to market. Pull-incentives that pay for the outputs of research and development (R&D) and push-incentives that pay for the inputs of R&D can be used to increase innovation for antibiotics. Financial incentives might be structured to promote delinkage of a company's return on investment from revenues of antibiotics. This delinkage strategy might not only increase innovation, but also reinforce rational use of antibiotics. Regulatory approval, however, should not and need not compromise safety and efficacy standards to bring antibiotics with novel mechanisms of action to market. Instead regulatory agencies could encourage development of companion diagnostics, test antibiotic combinations in parallel, and pool and make transparent clinical trial data to lower R&D costs. A tax on non-human use of antibiotics might also create a disincentive for non-therapeutic use of these drugs. Finally, the new business model for antibiotic innovation should apply the 3Rs strategy for encouraging collaborative approaches to R&D in innovating novel antibiotics: sharing resources, risks, and rewards.

Room-temperature photoluminescence of BaTiO3: Joint experimental and theoretical study

Strong photoluminescent emission has been measured at room temperature for noncrystalline BaT'O-3 (BT) perovskite powders. A joint experimental and theoretical study has been carried out to rationalize this phenomenon. From the experimental side, BT powder samples have been synthesized following a soft chemical processing, their crystal structure has been confirmed by x-ray data and the corresponding photoluminescence (PL) properties have been measured. Only the structurally disordered samples present PL at room temperature. From the theoretical side, first-principles quantum-mechanical techniques, based on density-functional theory at the B3LYP level, have been employed to study the electronic structure of crystalline (BT-c) and asymmetric (BT-a) models. Theoretical and experimental results are found to be consistent and their confrontation leads to an interpretation of the PL apparition at room temperature in the structurally disordered powders.

Theoretical model and experimental analysis of glulam beam reinforced with FRP

This work present a study of glulam beams reinforced with FRP. It was developed a theoretical model that calculates strength and stiffness of the beams. The model allows for the calculation of the bending moment, the hypothetical distribution of linear strains along the height of the beam, and considers the wood has a linear elastic fragile behavior in tension parallel to the fibers and bilinear in compression parallel to the fibers, initially elastic and subsequently inelastic, with a negative decline in the stress-strain diagram. The stiffness was calculated by the transformed section method. Twelve non-reinforced and fiberglass reinforced glulam beams were evaluated experimentally to validate the proposed theoretical model. The results obtained indicate good congruence between the experimental and theoretical values.

Extended kalman filter for estimation of parameters in nonlinear state-space models of biochemical networks.

It is system dynamics that determines the function of cells, tissues and organisms. To develop mathematical models and estimate their parameters are an essential issue for studying dynamic behaviors of biological systems which include metabolic networks, genetic regulatory networks and signal transduction pathways, under perturbation of external stimuli. In general, biological dynamic systems are partially observed. Therefore, a natural way to model dynamic biological systems is to employ nonlinear state-space equations. Although statistical methods for parameter estimation of linear models in biological dynamic systems have been developed intensively in the recent years, the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems remains a challenging task. In this report, we apply extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the estimation of both states and parameters of nonlinear state-space models. To evaluate the performance of the EKF for parameter estimation, we apply the EKF to a simulation dataset and two real datasets: JAK-STAT signal transduction pathway and Ras/Raf/MEK/ERK signaling transduction pathways datasets. The preliminary results show that EKF can accurately estimate the parameters and predict states in nonlinear state-space equations for modeling dynamic biochemical networks.

Coexpression of epidermal growth factor receptor with related factors is associated with a poor prognosis in non-small-cell lung cancer

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) is commonly expressed in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and promotes a host of mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis. However, EGFR expression does not reliably predict prognosis or response to EGFR-targeted therapies. The data from two previous studies of a series of 181 consecutive surgically resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC patients who had survived in excess of 60 days were explored. Of these patients, tissue was available for evaluation of EGFR in 179 patients, carbonic anhydrase (CA) IX in 177 patients and matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) in 169 patients. We have previously reported an association between EGFR expression and MMP-9 expression. We have also reported that MMP-9 (P=0.001) and perinuclear (p)CA IX (P=0.03) but not EGFR expression were associated with a poor prognosis. Perinuclear CA IX expression was also associated with EGFR expression (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that coexpression of MMP-9 with EGFR conferred a worse prognosis than the expression of MMP-9 alone (P<0.001) and coexpression of EGFR and pCA IX conferred a worse prognosis than pCA IX alone (P=0.05). A model was then developed where the study population was divided into three groups: group 1 had expression of EGFR without coexpression of MMP-9 or pCA IX (number=21); group 2 had no expression of EGFR (number=75); and group 3 had coexpression of EGFR with pCA IX or MMP-9 or both (number=70). Group 3 had a worse prognosis than either groups 1 or 2 (P=0.0003 and 0.027, respectively) and group 1 had a better prognosis than group 2 (P=0.036). These data identify two cohorts of EGFR-positive patients with diametrically opposite prognoses. The group expressing either EGFR and or both MMP-9 and pCA IX may identify a group of patients with activated EGFR, which is of clinical relevance with the advent of EGFR-targeted therapies. © 2004 Cancer Research UK.

Parental influences on physical activity behavior in preschool children

Objective To evaluate a conceptual model linking parent physical activity (PA) orientations, parental support for PA, and PA behavior in preschool children. Methods Participants were 156 parent-child dyads from 13 child care centers in Queensland, Australia. Parents completed a questionnaire measuring parental PA, parental enjoyment of PA, perceived importance of PA, parental support for PA, parents' perceptions of competence, and child PA at home. MVPA while attending child care was measured via accelerometry. Data were collected between May and August of 2003. The relationships between the study variables and child PA were tested using observed variable path analysis. Results Parental PA and parents' perceptions of competence were positively associated with parental support for PA (β= 0.23 and 0.18, respectively, p<0.05). Parental support, in turn, was positively associated with child PA at home (β= 0.16, p<0.05), but not at child care (β= 0.01, p= 0.94). Parents' perceptions of competence was positively associated with both home-based and child care PA (β= 0.20 and 0.28, respectively, p<0.05). Conclusions Family-based interventions targeting preschoolers should include strategies to increase parental support for PA. Parents who perceive their child to have low physical competence should be encouraged to provide adequate support for PA. © 2009 Elsevier Inc.

The epidemiological modelling of major depressive disorder : application for the global burden of disease study 2010

Background Although the detrimental impact of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level has been described, its global epidemiology remains unclear given limitations in the data. Here we present the modelled epidemiological profile of MDD dealing with heterogeneity in the data, enforcing internal consistency between epidemiological parameters and making estimates for world regions with no empirical data. These estimates were used to quantify the burden of MDD for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). Method Analyses drew on data from our existing literature review of the epidemiology of MDD. DisMod-MR, the latest version of the generic disease modelling system redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, derived prevalence by age, year and sex for 21 regions. Prior epidemiological knowledge, study- and country-level covariates adjusted sub-optimal raw data. Results There were over 298 million cases of MDD globally at any point in time in 2010, with the highest proportion of cases occurring between 25 and 34 years. Global point prevalence was very similar across time (4.4% (95% uncertainty: 4.2–4.7%) in 1990, 4.4% (4.1–4.7%) in 2005 and 2010), but higher in females (5.5% (5.0–6.0%) compared to males (3.2% (3.0–3.6%) in 2010. Regions in conflict had higher prevalence than those with no conflict. The annual incidence of an episode of MDD followed a similar age and regional pattern to prevalence but was about one and a half times higher, consistent with an average duration of 37.7 weeks. Conclusion We were able to integrate available data, including those from high quality surveys and sub-optimal studies, into a model adjusting for known methodological sources of heterogeneity. We were also able to estimate the epidemiology of MDD in regions with no available data. This informed GBD 2010 and the public health field, with a clearer understanding of the global distribution of MDD.

Design, construction and evaluation of systems to predict risk in obstetrics

We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy. We present a systematic, practical approach to developing risk prediction systems, suitable for use with large databases of medical information. An important part of this approach is a novel feature selection algorithm which uses the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to measure the expected discriminative power of different sets of predictor variables. We describe this algorithm and use it to select variables to predict risk of a specific adverse pregnancy outcome: failure to progress in labour. Neural network, logistic regression and hierarchical Bayesian risk prediction models are constructed, all of which achieve close to the limit of performance attainable on this prediction task. We show that better prediction performance requires more discriminative clinical information rather than improved modelling techniques. It is also shown that better diagnostic criteria in clinical records would greatly assist the development of systems to predict risk in pregnancy.

Model-based analysis and optimization of bioreactor for hematopoietic stem cell cultivation

One of the problems to be solved in attaining the full potentials of hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) applications is the limited availability of the cells. Growing HSCs in a bioreactor offers an alternative solution to this problem. Besides, it also offers the advantages of eliminating labour intensive process as well as the possible contamination involved in the periodic nutrient replenishments in the traditional T-flask stem cell cultivation. In spite of this, the optimization of HSC cultivation in a bioreactor has been barely explored. This manuscript discusses the development of a mathematical model to describe the dynamics in nutrient distribution and cell concentration of an ex vivo HSC cultivation in a microchannel perfusion bioreactor. The model was further used to optimize the cultivation by proposing three alternative feeding strategies in order to prevent the occurrence of nutrient limitation in the bioreactor. The evaluation of these strategies, the periodic step change increase in the inlet oxygen concentration, the periodic step change increase in the media inflow, and the feedback control of media inflow, shows that these strategies can successfully improve the cell yield of the bioreactor. In general, the developed model is useful for the design and optimization of bioreactor operation.

Managing moose harvests by the seat of your pants

Moose populations are managed for sustainable yield balanced against costs caused by damage to forestry or agriculture and collisions with vehicles. Optimal harvests can be calculated based on a structured population model driven by data on abundance and the composition of bulls, cows, and calves obtained by aerial-survey monitoring during winter. Quotas are established by the respective government agency and licenses are issued to hunters to harvest an animal of specified age or sex during the following autumn. Because the cost of aerial monitoring is high, we use a Management Strategy Evaluation to evaluate the costs and benefits of periodic aerial surveys in the context of moose management. Our on-the-fly "seat of your pants" alternative to independent monitoring is management based solely on the kill of moose by hunters, which is usually sufficient to alert the manager to declines in moose abundance that warrant adjustments to harvest strategies. Harvests are relatively cheap to monitor; therefore, data can be obtained each year facilitating annual adjustments to quotas. Other sources of "cheap" monitoring data such as records of the number of moose seen by hunters while hunting also might be obtained, and may provide further useful insight into population abundance, structure and health. Because conservation dollars are usually limited, the high cost of aerial surveys is difficult to justify when alternative methods exist. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Yksilöllisyys ja yhteisöllisyys K. E. Nipkowin uskonnonpedagogisen teorian kehityksessä 1960-1990

Individuality and the Community in the Development of K. E. Nipkow's Theory of Religious Education from 1960 to 1990 The purpose of this study was to describe and analyze the development occurred between 1960 and 1990 of the theory of religious education as proposed by K. E. Nipkow, the German Religious Education specialist, from the point of view of individuality and the community. Nipkow's methodological approach of dialectic convergence theory resulted in a dialogue between theological and educational factors, which supported the thirty-year development of Nipkow's models, theoretical foundations, and theory of religious education. Nipkow's doctoral dissertation, published in 1960, deals with individuality in the thinking of Pestalozzi, Humboldt and Schleiermacher. Nipkow regarded individuality as one of the basic concepts of education, which were to be interpreted anew as social and historical situations changed. In the late 1960s Nipkow developed the so-called experiential hermeneutically oriented context model for the needs of religious education. In this model, individuality is expressed in the attention paid to pupils' life situations and the educational reality. The multi-dimensional theoretical framework of religious education in 1975 emphasized supporting identity as a fundamental task of religious education. The concept of individuality was thus given a new form, in accordance with contemporary theories of developmental psychology. Other fundamental tasks, such as the socio-ethical task, the task of critical religious thinking, and that of ecumenical learning, meant a more specific emphasis on the community. It was an outline of a liberating education, which faced the individualistic-existential and social-ecclesiastical challenges of the time with a critical attitude. The further development of the theoretical outline in 1982 continued to uphold the perspectives of both individuality and the community, as Nipkow combined a historical-social dimension with theories of developmental psychology, especially that of life-span research. According to him, the development of the individual and communal life-reality belonged together. The fundamental task of religious education came to be learning to live and believe together. Nipkow transferred the idea of dialogue into inter-generational learning and developed elementarization as a methodology of Religious Education, which takes into account the point of departure of each age group. His theory of educational responsibility in the church (1990) contained the tasks of walking alongside the individual and the renewal of church communities as prerequisites of communicating the Christian faith in an era characterized by multifaceted Christianity. The "geisteswissenschaftliche" school and its concepts (Ger. Individualität; Bildung) were found to be the explanatory factor of the concepts of individuality and the community in the development of Nipkow's theory of religious education. The concept of education employed by Nipkow (Ger. Bildung) implies, on one hand, the individuality, autonomy, freedom and personal responsibility of people of different ages, and on the other hand, the dialogical nature of education in the community facilitated by this concept. Theologically, Nipkow associates himself in his views on individuality and the community with Schleiermacher's understanding of faith, of which openness towards the world was characteristic. The significance of individuality and the community in Nipkow's thinking was, furthermore, deepened by his participation, as a member of working parties, in the educational discussions of the World Council of Churches.

Mechanical force antagonizes the inhibitory effects of RecX on RecA filament formation in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Efficient bacterial recombinational DNA repair involves rapid cycles of RecA filament assembly and disassembly. The RecX protein plays a crucial inhibitory role in RecA filament formation and stability. As the broken ends of DNA are tethered during homologous search, RecA filaments assembled at the ends are likely subject to force. In this work, we investigated the interplay between RecX and force on RecA filament formation and stability. Using magnetic tweezers, at single molecular level, we found that Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mt) RecX could catalyze stepwise de-polymerization of preformed MtRecA filament in the presence of ATP hydrolysis at low forces (<7 pN). However, applying larger forces antagonized the inhibitory effects of MtRecX, and a partially de-polymerized MtRecA filament could repolymerize in the presence of MtRecX, which cannot be explained by previous models. Theoretical analysis of force-dependent conformational free energies of naked ssDNA and RecA nucleoprotein filament suggests that mechanical force stabilizes RecA filament, which provides a possible mechanism for the observation. As the antagonizing effect of force on the inhibitory function of RecX takes place in a physiological range; these findings broadly suggest a potential mechanosensitive regulation during homologous recombination.

Prediction of 30-day mortality in older patients with a first acute myocardial infarction

This study sought predictors of mortality in patients aged >or=75 years with a first ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and evaluated the validity of the GUSTO-I and TIMI risk models. Clinical variables, treatment and mortality data from 433 consecutive patients were collected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were applied to identify baseline factors associated with 30-day mortality. Subsequently a model predicting 30-day mortality was created and compared with the performance of the GUSTO-I and TIMI models. After adjustment, a higher Killip class was the most important predictor (OR 16.1; 95% CI 5.7-45.6). Elevated heart rate, longer time delay to admission, hyperglycemia and older age were also associated with increased risk. Patients with hypercholesterolemia had a significantly lower risk (OR 0.46; 95% CI 0.24-0.86). Discrimination (c-statistic 0.79, 95% CI 0.75-0.84) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow 6, p = 0.5) of our model were good. The GUSTO-I and TIMI risk scores produced adequate discrimination within our dataset (c-statistic 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81, and c-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.82, respectively), but calibration was not satisfactory (HL 21.8, p = 0.005 for GUSTO-I, and HL 20.6, p = 0.008 for TIMI). In conclusion, short-term mortality in elderly patients with a first STEMI depends most importantly on initial clinical and hemodynamic status. The GUSTO-I and TIMI models are insufficiently adequate for providing an exact estimate of 30-day mortality risk.