An experimental evaluation of prediction models for the mechanical behavior of unreinforced, lime-mortar masonry under compression

This paper contributes to the understanding of lime-mortar masonry strength and deformation (which determine durability and allowable stresses/stiffness in design codes) by measuring the mechanical properties of brick bound with lime and lime-cement mortars. Based on the regression analysis of experimental results, models to estimate lime-mortar masonry compressive strength are proposed (less accurate for hydrated lime (CL90s) masonry due to the disparity between mortar and brick strengths). Also, three relationships between masonry elastic modulus and its compressive strength are proposed for cement-lime; hydraulic lime (NHL3.5 and 5); and hydrated/feebly hydraulic lime masonries respectively.

Disagreement between the experimental results and former mathematical prediction models (proposed primarily for cement masonry) is caused by a lack of provision for the significant deformation of lime masonry and the relative changes in strength and stiffness between mortar and brick over time (at 6 months and 1 year, the NHL 3.5 and 5 mortars are often stronger than the brick). Eurocode 6 provided the best predictions for the compressive strength of lime and cement-lime masonry based on the strength of their components. All models vastly overestimated the strength of CL90s masonry at 28 days however, Eurocode 6 became an accurate predictor after 6 months, when the mortar had acquired most of its final strength and stiffness.

The experimental results agreed with former stress-strain curves. It was evidenced that mortar strongly impacts masonry deformation, and that the masonry stress/strain relationship becomes increasingly non-linear as mortar strength lowers. It was also noted that, the influence of masonry stiffness on its compressive strength becomes smaller as the mortar hydraulicity increases.

MEASUREMENT OF TUMOR BLOOD FLOW FOLLOWING NEUTRON IRRADIATION (ACTIVATION)

Clinical oncologists and cancer researchers benefit from information on the vascularization or non-vascularization of solid tumors because of blood flow's influence on three popular treatment types: hyperthermia therapy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The objective of this research is the development of a clinically useful tumor blood flow measurement technique. The designed technique is sensitive, has good spatial resolution, in non-invasive and presents no risk to the patient beyond his usual treatment (measurements will be subsequent only to normal patient treatment).^ Tumor blood flow was determined by measuring the washout of positron emitting isotopes created through neutron therapy treatment. In order to do this, several technical and scientific questions were addressed first. These questions were: (1) What isotopes are created in tumor tissue when it is irradiated in a neutron therapy beam and how much of each isotope is expected? (2) What are the chemical states of the isotopes that are potentially useful for blood flow measurements and will those chemical states allow these or other isotopes to be washed out of the tumor? (3) How should isotope washout by blood flow be modeled in order to most effectively use the data? These questions have been answered through both theoretical calculation and measurement.^ The first question was answered through the measurement of macroscopic cross sections for the predominant nuclear reactions in the body. These results correlate well with an independent mathematical prediction of tissue activation and measurements of mouse spleen neutron activation. The second question was addressed by performing cell suspension and protein precipitation techniques on neutron activated mouse spleens. The third and final question was answered by using first physical principles to develop a model mimicking the blood flow system and measurement technique.^ In a final set of experiments, the above were applied to flow models and animals. The ultimate aim of this project is to apply its methodology to neutron therapy patients. ^

A numerical model for predicting shoreline changes /

A mathematical model for long-term, three-dimensional shoreline evolution is developed. The combined effects of variations of sea level; wave refraction and diffraction; loss of sand by density currents during storms, by rip currents, and by wind; bluff erosion and berm accretion; effects of manmade structures such as long groin or navigational structures; and beach nourishment are all taken into account. A computer program is developed with various subroutines which permit modification as the state-of-the-art progresses. The program is applied to a test case at Holland Harbor, Michigan. (Author).

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

Explosion pressure prediction via polynomial mathematical correlation based on advanced CFD Modelling

Computational Fluid Dynamics CFD can be used as a powerful tool supporting engineers throughout the steps of the design. The combination of CFD with response surface methodology can play an important role in such cases. During the conceptual engineering design phase, a quick response is always a matter of urgency. During this phase even a sketch of the geometrical model is rare. Therefore, the utilisation of typical response surface developed for congested and confined environment rather than CFD can be an important tool to help the decision making process, when the geometrical model is not available, provided that similarities can be considered when taking into account the characteristic of the geometry in which the response surface was developed. The present work investigates how three different types of response surfaces behave when predicting overpressure in accidental scenarios based on CFD input. First order, partial second order and complete second order polynomial expressions are investigated. The predicted results are compared with CFD findings for a classical offshore experiment conducted by British Gas on behalf of Mobil and good agreement is observed for higher order response surfaces. The higher order response surface calculations are also compared with CFD calculations for a typical offshore module and good agreement is also observed. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Bayesian model averaging for harmful algal bloom prediction

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) are a worldwide problem that have been increasing in frequency and extent over the past several decades. HABs severely damage aquatic ecosystems by destroying benthic habitat, reducing invertebrate and fish populations and affecting larger species such as dugong that rely on seagrasses for food. Few statistical models for predicting HAB occurrences have been developed, and in common with most predictive models in ecology, those that have been developed do not fully account for uncertainties in parameters and model structure. This makes management decisions based on these predictions more risky than might be supposed. We used a probit time series model and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to predict occurrences of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a toxic cyanophyte, in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia. We found a suite of useful predictors for HAB occurrence, with Temperature figuring prominently in models with the majority of posterior support, and a model consisting of the single covariate average monthly minimum temperature showed by far the greatest posterior support. A comparison of alternative model averaging strategies was made with one strategy using the full posterior distribution and a simpler approach that utilised the majority of the posterior distribution for predictions but with vastly fewer models. Both BMA approaches showed excellent predictive performance with little difference in their predictive capacity. Applications of BMA are still rare in ecology, particularly in management settings. This study demonstrates the power of BMA as an important management tool that is capable of high predictive performance while fully accounting for both parameter and model uncertainty.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.

Optimal online prediction in adversarial environments

In many prediction problems, including those that arise in computer security and computational finance, the process generating the data is best modelled as an adversary with whom the predictor competes. Even decision problems that are not inherently adversarial can be usefully modeled in this way, since the assumptions are sufficiently weak that effective prediction strategies for adversarial settings are very widely applicable.