Uma estratégia aleatória chamada de MOSES

This paper we study a random strategy called MOSES, which was introduced in 1996 by Fran¸cois. Asymptotic results of this strategy; behavior of the stationary distributions of the chain associated to strategy, were derived by Fran¸cois, in 1998, of the theory of Freidlin and Wentzell [8]. Detailings of these results are in this work. Moreover, we noted that an alternative approach the convergence of this strategy is possible without making use of theory of Freidlin and Wentzell, yielding the visit almost certain of the strategy to uniform populations which contain the minimum. Some simulations in Matlab are presented in this work

A numerical study of large sparse matrix exponentials arising in Markov chains

Krylov subspace techniques have been shown to yield robust methods for the numerical computation of large sparse matrix exponentials and especially the transient solutions of Markov Chains. The attractiveness of these methods results from the fact that they allow us to compute the action of a matrix exponential operator on an operand vector without having to compute, explicitly, the matrix exponential in isolation. In this paper we compare a Krylov-based method with some of the current approaches used for computing transient solutions of Markov chains. After a brief synthesis of the features of the methods used, wide-ranging numerical comparisons are performed on a power challenge array supercomputer on three different models. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.AMS Classification: 65F99; 65L05; 65U05.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

New methods for determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markov chains

We shall be concerned with the problem of determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markovian models directly from their transition rates Q. We shall present simple conditions for a mu-invariant measure m for Q to be mu-invariant for the transition function, so that if m is finite, it can be normalized to produce a quasi-stationary distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The cutoff phenomenon in finite Markov chains.

Natural mixing processes modeled by Markov chains often show a sharp cutoff in their convergence to long-time behavior. This paper presents problems where the cutoff can be proved (card shuffling, the Ehrenfests' urn). It shows that chains with polynomial growth (drunkard's walk) do not show cutoffs. The best general understanding of such cutoffs (high multiplicity of second eigenvalues due to symmetry) is explored. Examples are given where the symmetry is broken but the cutoff phenomenon persists.

Multi-objective adaptive evolutionary strategy for tuning compilations

Tuning compilations is the process of adjusting the values of a compiler options to improve some features of the final application. In this paper, a strategy based on the use of a genetic algorithm and a multi-objective scheme is proposed to deal with this task. Unlike previous works, we try to take advantage of the knowledge of this domain to provide a problem-specific genetic operation that improves both the speed of convergence and the quality of the results. The evaluation of the strategy is carried out by means of a case of study aimed to improve the performance of the well-known web server Apache. Experimental results show that a 7.5% of overall improvement can be achieved. Furthermore, the adaptive approach has shown an ability to markedly speed-up the convergence of the original strategy.

Aspects of Markov Chains and Particle Systems

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Sensor scheduling in electronic support using Markov chains

In electronic support, receivers must maintain surveillance over the very wide portion of the electromagnetic spectrum in which threat emitters operate. A common approach is to use a receiver with a relatively narrow bandwidth that sweeps its centre frequency over the threat bandwidth to search for emitters. The sequence and timing of changes in the centre frequency constitute a search strategy. The search can be expedited, if there is intelligence about the operational parameters of the emitters that are likely to be found. However, it can happen that the intelligence is deficient, untrustworthy or absent. In this case, what is the best search strategy to use? A random search strategy based on a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is proposed. When the search is conducted for emitters with a periodic scan, it is shown that there is an optimal configuration for the CTMC. It is optimal in the sense that the expected time to intercept an emitter approaches linearity most quickly with respect to the emitter's scan period. A fast and smooth approach to linearity is important, as other strategies can exhibit considerable and abrupt variations in the intercept time as a function of scan period. In theory and numerical examples, the optimum CTMC strategy is compared with other strategies to demonstrate its superior properties.

Harmonic Distortion State Estimation Using an Evolutionary Strategy

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The main advantage in using such a technique relies upon its modeling facilities as well as its potential to solve fairly complex problems. The problem-solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power-quality (PQ) meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology global positioning system devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow. This second approach makes the overall PQ monitoring system much less costly. The algorithm is applied to an IEEE test network, for which sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how the parameters of the ES can be selected so that the algorithm performs in an effective way. Case studies show fairly promising results and the robustness of the proposed method.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.

Further results on the relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions for absorbing continuous-time Markov chains

This note considers continuous-time Markov chains whose state space consists of an irreducible class, C, and an absorbing state which is accessible from C. The purpose is to provide results on mu-invariant and mu-subinvariant measures where absorption occurs with probability less than one. In particular, the well-known premise that the mu-invariant measure, m, for the transition rates be finite is replaced by the more natural premise that m be finite with respect to the absorption probabilities. The relationship between mu-invariant measures and quasi-stationary distributions is discussed. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of the rat exploratory behavior in the elevated plus-maze with Markov chains

The elevated plus-maze is an animal model of anxiety used to study the effect of different drugs on the behavior of the animal It consists of a plus-shaped maze with two open and two closed arms elevated 50 cm from the floor The standard measures used to characterize exploratory behavior in the elevated plus-maze are the time spent and the number of entries in the open arms In this work we use Markov chains to characterize the exploratory behavior of the rat in the elevated plus-maze under three different conditions normal and under the effects of anxiogenic and anxiolytic drugs The spatial structure of the elevated plus-maze is divided into squares which are associated with states of a Markov chain By counting the frequencies of transitions between states during 5-min sessions in the elevated plus-maze we constructed stochastic matrices for the three conditions studied The stochastic matrices show specific patterns which correspond to the observed behaviors of the rat under the three different conditions For the control group the stochastic matrix shows a clear preference for places in the closed arms This preference is enhanced for the anxiogenic group For the anxiolytic group the stochastic matrix shows a pattern similar to a random walk Our results suggest that Markov chains can be used together with the standard measures to characterize the rat behavior in the elevated plus-maze (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Similar Markov chains

enin et al. (2000) recently introduced the idea of similarity in the context of birth-death processes. This paper examines the extent to which their results can be extended to arbitrary Markov chains. It is proved that, under a variety of conditions, similar chains are strongly similar in a sense which is described, and it is shown that minimal chains are strongly similar if and only if the corresponding transition-rate matrices are strongly similar. A general framework is given for constructing families of strongly similar chains; it permits the construction of all such chains in the irreducible case.

Path integrals for continuous-time Markov chains

This note presents a method of evaluating the distribution of a path integral for Markov chains on a countable state space.

Set-valued Markov chains and negative semitrajectories of discretized dynamical systems

Computer simulation of dynamical systems involves a phase space which is the finite set of machine arithmetic. Rounding state values of the continuous system to this grid yields a spatially discrete dynamical system, often with different dynamical behaviour. Discretization of an invertible smooth system gives a system with set-valued negative semitrajectories. As the grid is refined, asymptotic behaviour of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws which correspond to a set-valued Markov chain, whose transition probabilities can be explicitly calculated. The results are illustrated for two-dimensional dynamical systems obtained by discretization of fractional linear transformations of the unit disc in the complex plane.