Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.

Genetic drift and within-host metapopulation dynamics of HIV-1 infection

Most HIV replication occurs in solid lymphoid tissue, which has prominent architecture at the histological level, which separates groups of productively infected CD4+ cells. Nevertheless, current population models of HIV assume panmixis within lymphoid tissue. We present a simple “metapopulation” model of HIV replication, where the population of infected cells is comprised of a large number of small populations, each of which is established by a few founder viruses and undergoes turnover. To test this model, we analyzed viral genetic variation of infected cell subpopulations within the spleen and demonstrated the action of founder effects as well as significant variation in the extent of genetic differentiation between subpopulations among patients. The combination of founder effects and subpopulation turnover can result in an effective population size much lower than the actual population size and may contribute to the importance of genetic drift in HIV evolution despite a large number of infected cells.

An R package for simulating metapopulation dynamics and range expansion under environmental change

The metapopulation paradigm is central in ecology and conservation biology to understand the dynamics of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulations are often studied using simulation modelling, and there is an increasing demand of user-friendly software tools to simulate metapopulation responses to environmental change. Here we describe the MetaLandSim R package, mwhich integrates ideas from metapopulation and graph theories to simulate the dynamics of real and virtual metapopulations. The package offers tools to (i) estimate metapopulation parameters from empirical data, (ii) to predict variation in patch occupancy over time in static and dynamic landscapes, either real or virtual, and (iii) to quantify the patterns and speed of metapopulation expansion into empty landscapes. MetaLandSim thus provides detailed information on metapopulation processes, which can be easily combined with land use and climate change scenarios to predict metapopulation dynamics and range expansion for a variety of taxa and ecological systems.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Conservation of a threatened European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation

Summary: Amphibians are among the most vulnerable animals of the world. One third of all species are currently threatened with extinction. Habitat loss is the major menace to pond- and stream-breeding species in the old world. In highly urbanized landscape like the Swiss Plateau, most species suffer from habitat reduction and fragmentation. Among all indigenous species, the European tree frog (Hyla arborea L., 1758) is one of the most endangered. It experienced an alarming decline during the last century and its regional long-term persistence is not guaranteed. We developed a monitoring framework based on calling male counts which included multiple visits to each wetland during the reproduction period in order to precisely determine its distribution on the Lemanic coast. Our results indicate that visiting populations 3 limes under suitable climatic conditions (temperature >20°C) provides reliable presence/absence data. Based on our monitoring data, we analyzed the species requirements regarding its breeding habitat. It appeared that anthropogenic activities had paradoxical effects on the species. On one hand, urbanization, traffic and intensive agriculture had a strong detrimental effect on tree frog distribution. On the other hand, large tree frog populations were frequently associated with gravel pits and military training grounds. Our results allowed us to create a habitat suitability map taking into account detrimental landscape elements around ponds (>1100m away from urban areas and >500m away from first class roads). In parallel, we developed a metapopulation model of the European tree frog in order to identify the critical threats to the long term persistence of the species. Our results indicated that suitable pond density is at the low end of the species requirements. Pond creation must therefore be considered an essential complementary approach to pond conservation and restoration. Our model also provided a mapping solution permitting the location of the must suitable area for pond creation from a metapopulation perspective. As many other amphibians, the European tree frog is not only exposed to an aquatic habitat (breeding and larval period), but also to a terrestrial stage (summer and overwintering habitats). Unfortunately, animals in their terrestrial phase are less conspicuous and, as a consequence, their terrestrial needs are relatively unknown. Using a recent tracking method (the Harmonic Direction Finder), we followed post-breeding frogs and identified favored terrestrial habitats, thus providing another practical conservation tool. We conclude that only the combination of multiple spatially explicit approaches (landscape-scale habitat suitability, metapopulation dynamics and terrestrial needs) is likely to provide wildlife managers with effective tools for the conservation of highly endangered amphibians. Résumé: Les amphibiens font partie des animaux les plus vulnérables du monde. Un tiers des espèces est actuellement menacé d'extinction. Dans l'ancien monde, la disparition des habitats constitue la principale menace pour les grenouilles, crapauds, tritons et salamandres. Dans les paysages fortement urbanisés comme le Plateau Suisse, la plupart des espèces souffrent d'une réduction et d'une fragmentation de leurs habitats. Parmi toutes les espèces indigènes, la rainette verte (Hyla arborea L., 1758) est l'une des plus menacée. Sa distribution a régressé de manière alarmante durant le siècle passé et sa survie régionale à long terme n'est pas assurée. Nous avons développé une méthode de suivi des populations se basant sur le comptage des mâles chanteurs durant la période de reproduction. Cette méthode requiert plusieurs visites à chaque plan d'eau de manière à déterminer précisément la distribution de l'espèce. Nos résultats démontrent que 3 visites par population dans des conditions climatiques favorable (température >20°C) permettent d'obtenir des données de présence/ absence valables. Sur la base de nos comptages sur la Côte lémanique, nous avons analysé les exigences de l'espèce concernant ses sites de reproduction. Il est apparu que les activités humaines avaient un effet paradoxal sur l'espèce. D'une part, l'urbanisation, le trafic routier et l'intensification de l'agriculture ont un effet fortement préjudiciable, tandis que d'autre part les plus grandes populations sont souvent associées à des gravières et autres places d'armes. Nos résultats ont permis de créer une carte de qualité d'habitat prenant en compte les éléments paysagers préjudiciables à la rainette (situé à plus de 1100m de zones urbaines et à plus de 500m de routes de première classe). En parallèle, nous avons développé un modèle métapopulationnel (incluant l'ensemble des populations) de manière à identifier les menaces prépondérantes sur la survie à long terme de l'espèce. Nos résultats ont permis de déterminer que la densité actuelle de plans d'eau adéquats est à la limite inférieure des exigences de l'espèce. La création d'étangs doit donc être considérée comme une approche indispensable et complémentaire à la protection et à la restauration des sites existants. Notre modèle a également fourni des résultats cartographiables permettant l'identification des sites les plus appropriés dans une perspective métapopulationnelle. Comme de nombreux autres amphibiens, la rainette verte est exposée à un habitat aquatique (reproduction et développement larvaire) ainsi qu'à un habitat terrestre (été et hiver). Les animaux étant particulièrement cryptiques dans cette seconde phase, leurs besoins terrestres sont relativement mal connus. Nous avons donc développé une nouvelle méthode de télémétrie basée sur le goniomètre harmonique. Cette méthode nous a permis de suivre des rainettes dans leurs migrations jusqu'à leurs habitats d'été et d'établir ainsi des recommandations pratiques pour la conservation de la rainette. Nous concluons que la combinaison de multiples approches spatialement explicites (qualité d'habitat, dynamique de métapopulation et habitats terrestres) est seule à même de produire des outils efficaces pour la conservation des espèces menacées d'amphibiens.

A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.

The fixation of locally beneficial alleles in a metapopulation.

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaptation are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaptation still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaptation, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaptation becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.

Effects of cognitive abilities on metapopulation connectivity

Connectivity among demes in a metapopulation depends on both the landscape's and the focal organism's properties (including its mobility and cognitive abilities). Using individual-based simulations, we contrast the consequences of three different cognitive strategies on several measures of metapopulation connectivity. Model animals search suitable habitat patches while dispersing through a model landscape made of cells varying in size, shape, attractiveness and friction. In the blind strategy, the next cell is chosen randomly among the adjacent ones. In the near-sighted strategy, the choice depends on the relative attractiveness of these adjacent cells. In the far-sighted strategy, animals may additionally target suitable patches that appear within their perceptual range. Simulations show that the blind strategy provides the best overall connectivity, and results in balanced dispersal. The near-sighted strategy traps animals into corridors that reduce the number of potential targets, thereby fragmenting metapopulations in several local clusters of demes, and inducing sink-source dynamics. This sort of local trapping is somewhat prevented in the far-sighted strategy. The colonization success of strategies depends highly on initial energy reserves: blind does best when energy is high, near-sighted wins at intermediate levels, and far-sighted outcompetes its rivals at low energy reserves. We also expect strong effects in terms of metapopulation genetics: the blind strategy generates a migrant-pool mode of dispersal that should erase local structures. By contrast, near- and far-sighted strategies generate a propagule-pool mode of dispersal and source-sink behavior that should boost structures (high genetic variance among- and low variance within local clusters of demes), particularly if metapopulation dynamics is also affected by extinction-colonization processes. Our results thus point to important effects of the cognitive ability of dispersers on the connectivity, dynamics and genetics of metapopulations.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

Marine protected areas for spatially structured exploited stocks

Many harvested marine and terrestrial populations have segments of their range protected in areas free from exploitation. Reasons for areas being protected from harvesting include conservation, tourism, research, protection of breeding grounds, stock recovery, harvest regulation, or habitat that is uneconomical to exploit. In this paper we consider the problem of optimally exploiting a single species local population that is connected by dispersing larvae to an unharvested local population. We define a spatially-explicit population dynamics model and apply dynamic optimization techniques to determine policies for harvesting the exploited patch. We then consider how reservation affects yield and spawning stock abundance when compared to policies that have not recognised the spatial structure of the metapopulation. Comparisons of harvest strategies between an exploited metapopulation with and without a harvest refuge are also made. Results show that in a 2 local population metapopulation with unidirectional larval transfer, the optimal exploitation of the harvested population should be conducted as if it were independent of the reserved population. Numerical examples suggest that relative source populations should be exploited if the objective is to maximise spawning stock abundance within a harvested metapopulation that includes a protected local population. However, this strategy can markedly reduce yield over a sink harvested reserve system and may require strict regulation for conservation goals to be realised. If exchange rates are high, results indicate that spawning stock abundance can be less in a reserve system than in a fully exploited metapopulation. In order to maximise economic gain in the reserve system, results indicate that relative sink populations should be harvested. Depending on transfer levels, loss in harvest through reservation can be minimal, and is likely to be compensated by the potential environmental and economic benefits of the reserve.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

The scope of Baker's law.

656 I. 657 II. 658 III. 660 IV. 661 V. 663 VI. 663 VII. 664 VIII. 664 665 References 665 SUMMARY: Baker's law refers to the tendency for species that establish on islands by long-distance dispersal to show an increased capacity for self-fertilization because of the advantage of self-compatibility when colonizing new habitat. Despite its intuitive appeal and broad empirical support, it has received substantial criticism over the years since it was proclaimed in the 1950s, not least because it seemed to be contradicted by the high frequency of dioecy on islands. Recent theoretical work has again questioned the generality and scope of Baker's law. Here, we attempt to discern where the idea is useful to apply and where it is not. We conclude that several of the perceived problems with Baker's law fall away when a narrower perspective is adopted on how it should be circumscribed. We emphasize that Baker's law should be read in terms of an enrichment of a capacity for uniparental reproduction in colonizing situations, rather than of high selfing rates. We suggest that Baker's law might be tested in four different contexts, which set the breadth of its scope: the colonization of oceanic islands, metapopulation dynamics with recurrent colonization, range expansions with recurrent colonization, and colonization through species invasions.

Mother-offspring competition promotes colonization success.

Colonization is the crucial process underlying range expansions, biological invasions, and metapopulation dynamics. Which individuals leave their natal population to colonize empty habitats is a crucial question and is presently unresolved. Dispersal is the first step in colonization. However, not all dispersing individuals are necessarily good colonizers. Indeed, in some species, the phenotype of dispersers differs depending on the selective pressures that induce dispersal. In particular, kin-based interactions, a factor driving social evolution, should induce different social response profiles in nondispersing and dispersing individuals. Kin competition (defined here as between the mother and offspring) has been proven to produce dispersers with a particular phenotype that may enhance their colonizing ability. By using the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara), we conducted a multipopulation experiment to study the effect of kin competition on dispersal and colonization success. We manipulated mother-offspring interactions, which are the most important component of kin competition in the studied species, at the family and population levels and measured the consequences on colonization success. We demonstrate that mother-offspring competition at the population level significantly influences colonization success. Increased competition at the population level enhanced the colonization rate of the largest juveniles as well as the growth and survival of the colonizers. Based on these results, we calculated that kin-induced colonization halves the extinction probability of a newly initiated population. Because interactions between relatives are likely to affect the ability of a species to track habitat modifications, kin-based dispersal should be considered in the study of invasion dynamics and metapopulation functioning.