兴山龙门河地区的植物群落与物种多样性研究

龙门河地区地处湖北省的西部，神农架的南坡，处于中亚热带向北亚热带过渡的地带。对其植物与植物群落的研究得到如下结果： 龙门河地区共有维管植物160科724属1737种，其中种了植物140科692属共1686种。其植物区系有显著的温带性，温带分布属共380属，占总属数的54.9%，这可能和该地区的地理位置，海拔及人为活动的影响有关，该地区的植物区系还具有古老性，特有属丰富特点，且有较多的珍稀濒危植物分布。 龙门河地区的植被共划分三个自然植被型共16个群系。在高海拔地区保存有较原始的落叶阔叶林，低海拔地区多为人为破坏后的次生类型。这些植被类型随环境条件的变化呈现较有规律的分布，依照其垂直分布的情况，可以将该地区植被划为三个带，即常绿阔叶林带低于海拔900(-1300)m;常绿落叶阔叶混交林位于海拔900(-1300)-600m之间;落叶阔叶林带在海拔1600(-1300)-2200m之间，无针叶林带在龙门河地区分布。应用TWINSPAN和DCA程序对各调查样地进行数量分类和排序结果说明，植物群落的分布与环境因子明显相关，但排序轴不能用海拔等单个的因子来解释。对各群落乔木层的Gleason丰富度指数，Shannon-Wiener指数及Pielou均匀度指数对比后发现，各种指数在不同的群落之间及不同海拔高度上没有明显的规律，这可能是由于人类活动混淆了群落成分及结构的结果。 锐齿槲栎林是神农架地区一种重要的落叶阔叶林，其分布广泛，保存较好。通过对锐齿槲栎种群大小结构的研究发现，中等大小的锐齿槲栎个体数量较多，幼苗与幼树的数量在不同样地间变化很大，其大小结构分布图中多有一定程度的缺失。锐齿槲栎种群多呈现聚集分布，不同的尺度下其聚集程序不同。在大多数尺度下，幼苗幼树的聚集程度比相同尺度下成体的聚集程序高。幼苗更新是锐齿槲栎更新的一种主要形式，其幼苗的出现与林窗的形成有密切的关系。在锐齿槲栎幼苗成长为幼树的过程中，同于种内与种间竞争的影响。导致了许多幼树的死亡。正是由于林窗形成等干扰因素的影响才使锐齿槲栎幼树得以进入群落上层。

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Power law distributions in pattern dynamics of attacker-defender dyads in the team sport of Rugby Union : phenomena in a region of self-organized criticality?

In the region of self-organized criticality (SOC) interdependency between multi-agent system components exists and slight changes in near-neighbor interactions can break the balance of equally poised options leading to transitions in system order. In this region, frequency of events of differing magnitudes exhibits a power law distribution. The aim of this paper was to investigate whether a power law distribution characterized attacker-defender interactions in team sports. For this purpose we observed attacker and defender in a dyadic sub-phase of rugby union near the try line. Videogrammetry was used to capture players’ motion over time as player locations were digitized. Power laws were calculated for the rate of change of players’ relative position. Data revealed that three emergent patterns from dyadic system interactions (i.e., try; unsuccessful tackle; effective tackle) displayed a power law distribution. Results suggested that pattern forming dynamics dyads in rugby union exhibited SOC. It was concluded that rugby union dyads evolve in SOC regions suggesting that players’ decisions and actions are governed by local interactions rules.

How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.