Long-term Forecasting of Frame Alignment Losses for Circuit Emulation Implementation

The article provides a method for long-term forecast of frame alignment losses based on the bit-error rate monitoring for structure-agnostic circuit emulation service over Ethernet in a mobile backhaul network. The developed method with corresponding algorithm allows to detect instants of probable frame alignment losses in a long term perspective in order to give engineering personnel extra time to take some measures aimed at losses prevention. Moreover, long-term forecast of frame alignment losses allows to make a decision about the volume of TDM data encapsulated into a circuit emulation frame in order to increase utilization of the emulated circuit. The developed long-term forecast method formalized with the corresponding algorithm is recognized as cognitive and can act as a part of network predictive monitoring system.

Assessing the effects of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations: the Brazilian experience

Eucalyptus is the dominant and most productive planted forest in Brazil, covering around 3.4 million ha for the production of charcoal, pulp, sawtimber, timber plates, wood foils, plywood and for building purposes. At the early establishment of the forest plantations, during the second half of the 1960s, the eucalypt yield was 10 m(3) ha(-1) y(-1). Now, as a result of investments in research and technology, the average productivity is 38 m3 ha(-1) y(-1). The productivity restrictions are related to the following environmental factors, in order of importance: water deficits > nutrient deficiency > soil depth and strength. The clonal forests have been fundamental in sites with larger water and nutrient restrictions, where they out-perform those established from traditional seed-based planting stock. When the environmental limitations are small the productivities of plantations based on clones or seeds appear to be similar. In the long term there are risks to sustainability, because of the low fertility and low reserves of primary minerals in the soils, which are, commonly, loamy and clayey oxisols and ultisols. Usually, a decline of soil quality is caused by management that does not conserve soil and site resources, damages soil physical and chemical characteristics, and insufficient or unbalanced fertiliser management. The problem is more serious when fast-growing genotypes are planted, which have a high nutrient demand and uptake capacity, and therefore high nutrient output through harvesting. The need to mobilise less soil by providing more cover and protection, reduce the nutrient and organic matter losses, preserve crucial physical properties as permeability ( root growth, infiltration and aeration), improve weed control and reduce costs has led to a progressive increase in the use of minimum cultivation practices during the last 20 years, which has been accepted as a good alternative to keep or increase site quality in the long term. In this paper we provide a synthesis and critical appraisal of the research results and practical implications of early silvicultural management on long-term site productivity of fast-growing eucalypt plantations arising from the Brazilian context.

Impact of Balanced or Unbalanced Karyotype At Diagnosis On Prognosis of CML: Long-Term Observation From 1346 Patients of the Randomized CML Study IV

Introduction: Acquired genetic instability in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a consequence of the translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and the resulting BCR-ABL fusion causes the continuous acquisition of additional chromosomal aberrations and mutations and thereby progression to accelerated phase (AP) and blast crisis (BC). At least 10% of patients in chronic phase (CP) CML show additional alterations at diagnosis. This proportion rises during the course of the disease up to 80% in BC. Acquisition of chromosomal changes during treatment is considered as a poor prognostic indicator, whereas the impact of chromosomal aberrations at diagnosis depends on their type. Patients with major route additional chromosomal alterations (major ACA: +8, i(17)(q10), +19, +der(22)t(9;22)(q34;q11) have a worse outcome whereas patients with minor route ACA show no difference in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared to patients with the standard translocation, a variant translocation or the loss of the Y chromosome (Fabarius et al., Blood 2011). However, the impact of balanced vs. unbalanced (gains or losses of chromosomes or chromosomal material) karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML is not clear yet. Patients and methods: Clinical and cytogenetic data of 1346 evaluable out of 1544 patients with Philadelphia and BCR-ABL positive CP CML randomized until December 2011 to the German CML-Study IV, a randomized 5-arm trial to optimize imatinib therapy by combination, or dose escalation and stem cell transplantation were investigated. There were 540 females (40%) and 806 males (60%). Median age was 53 years (range, 16-88). The impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations in combination with an unbalanced or balanced karyotype at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic and major molecular remission (CCR, MMR), PFS and OS was investigated. Results: At diagnosis 1174/1346 patients (87%) had the standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only and 75 patients (6%) had a variant t(v;22). In 64 of 75 patients with t(v;22), only one further chromosome was involved in the translocation; In 8 patients two, in 2 patients three, and in one patient four further chromosomes were involved. Ninety seven patients (7%) had additional cytogenetic aberrations. Of these, 44 patients (3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 53 patients (4%) had major or minor ACA. Thirty six of the 53 patients (2.7%) had an unbalanced karyotype (including all patients with major route ACA and patients with other unbalanced alterations like -X, del(1)(q21), del(5)(q11q14), +10, t(15;17)(p10;p10), -21), and 17 (1.3%) a balanced karyotype with reciprocal translocations [e.g. t(1;21); t(2;16); t(3;12); t(4;6); t(5;8); t(15;20)]. After a median observation time of 5.6 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, balanced and unbalanced karyotype with ACA median times to CCR were 1.05, 1.05, 1.03, 2.58 and 1.51 years, to MMR 1.31, 1.51, 1.65, 2.97 and 2.07 years. Time to CCR and MMR was longer in patients with balanced karyotypes (data statistically not significant). 5-year PFS was 89%, 78%, 87%, 94% and 69% and 5-year OS 91%, 87%, 89%, 100% and 73%, respectively. In CML patients with unbalanced karyotype PFS (p<0.001) and OS (p<0.001) were shorter than in patients with standard translocation (or balanced karyotype; p<0.04 and p<0.07, respectively). Conclusion: We conclude that the prognostic impact of additional cytogenetic alterations at diagnosis of CML is heterogeneous and consideration of their types may be important. Not only patients with major route ACA at diagnosis of CML but also patients with unbalanced karyotypes identify a group of patients with shorter PFS and OS as compared to all other patients. Therefore, different therapeutic options such as intensive therapy with the most potent tyrosine kinase inhibitors or stem cell transplantation are required.

Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú

This paper provides empirical evidence of the persistent effect of exposure to political violence on humancapital accumulation. I exploit the variation in conflict location and birth cohorts to identify the longandshort-term effects of the civil war on educational attainment. Conditional on being exposed toviolence, the average person accumulates 0.31 less years of education as an adult. In the short-term,the effects are stronger than in the long-run; these results hold when comparing children within thesame household. Further, exposure to violence during early childhood leads to permanent losses. I alsoexplore the potential causal mechanisms.

Residual effect of soil tillage on water erosion from a Typic Paleudalf under long-term no-tillage and cropping systems

Soil erosion is one of the chief causes of agricultural land degradation. Practices of conservation agriculture, such as no-tillage and cover crops, are the key strategies of soil erosion control. In a long-term experiment on a Typic Paleudalf, we evaluated the temporal changes of soil loss and water runoff rates promoted by the transition from conventional to no-tillage systems in the treatments: bare soil (BS); grassland (GL); winter fallow (WF); intercrop maize and velvet bean (M+VB); intercrop maize and jack bean (M+JB); forage radish as winter cover crop (FR); and winter cover crop consortium ryegrass - common vetch (RG+CV). Intensive soil tillage induced higher soil losses and water runoff rates; these effects persisted for up to three years after the adoption of no-tillage. The planting of cover crops resulted in a faster decrease of soil and water loss rates in the first years after conversion from conventional to no-tillage than to winter fallow. The association of no-tillage with cover crops promoted progressive soil stabilization; after three years, soil losses were similar and water runoff was lower than from grassland soil. In the treatments of cropping systems with cover crops, soil losses were reduced by 99.7 and 66.7 %, compared to bare soil and winter fallow, while the water losses were reduced by 96.8 and 71.8 % in relation to the same treatments, respectively.

Role of fat oxidation in the long-term stabilization of body weight in obese women.

Two studies were performed to investigate the association between body fat mass and fat oxidation. The first, a cross-sectional study of 106 obese women maintaining stable body weight, showed that these two variables were significantly correlated (r = 0.56, P less than 0.001) and the regression coefficient indicated that a 10-kg change in fat mass corresponded to a change in fat oxidation of approximately 20 g/d. The second, a prospective study, validated this estimate and quantifies the long-term adaptations in fat oxidation resulting from body fat loss. Twenty-four moderately obese women were studied under controlled dietary conditions at stable weight before and after mean weight and fat losses of 12.7 and 9.8 kg, respectively. The reduction in fat oxidation was identical to that predicted by the above regression. We conclude that changes in fat mass significantly affect fat oxidation and that this process may contribute to the long-term regulation of fat and energy balance in obese individuals.

Long-term loss of color vision after exposure to mercury vapor

We evaluated the color vision of 24 subjects (41.6 ± 6.5 years; 6 females) who worked in fluorescent lamp industries. They had been occupationally exposed to mercury vapor (10.6 ± 5.2 years) and had been away from the source of exposure for 6.4 ± 4.04 years. Mean urinary concentration of mercury was 40.6 ± 36.4 µg/g creatinine during or up to 1 year after exposure and 2.71 ± 1.19 µg/g creatinine at the time of color vision testing or up to 1 year thereafter. All patients were diagnosed with chronic mercury intoxication, characterized by clinical symptoms and neuropsychological alterations. A control group (N = 36, 48.6 ± 11.9 years, 10 females, 1.5 ± 0.47 µg mercury/g creatinine) was subjected to the same tests. Inclusion criteria for both groups were Snellen VA 20/30 or better and absence of known ophthalmologic pathologies. Color discrimination was assessed with the Farnsworth D-15 test (D-15) and with the Lanthony D-15d test (D-15d). Significant differences were found between the two eyes of the patients (P < 0.001) in both tests. Results for the worst eye were also different from controls for both tests: P = 0.014 for D-15 and P < 0.001 for D-15d. As shown in previous studies, the D-15d proved to be more sensitive than the D-15 for the screening and diagnosis of the color discrimination losses. Since color discrimination losses were still present many years after the end of exposure, they may be considered to be irreversible, at least under the conditions of the present study.

Effect of manure application on crop yield and soil chemical properties in a long-term field trial of semi-arid Kenya

The sustainability of cereal/legume intercropping was assessed by monitoring trends in grain yield, soil organic C (SOC) and soil extractable P (Olsen method) measured over 13 years at a long-term field trial on a P-deficient soil in semi-arid Kenya. Goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1) and trends in grain yield were not identifiable because of season-to-season variations. SOC and Olsen P increased for the first seven years of manure application and then remained constant. The residual effect of manure applied for four years only lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P. Mineral fertilizers provided the same annual rates of N and P as in 5 t ha(-1) manure and initially ,gave the same yield as manure, declining after nine years to about 80%. Therefore, manure applications could be made intermittently and nutrient requirements topped-up with fertilizers. Grain yields for sorghum with continuous manure were described well by correlations with rainfall and manure input only, if data were excluded for seasons with over 500 mm rainfall. A comprehensive simulation model should correctly describe crop losses caused by excess water.

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite's association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant 'type B' has become established in these colonies and that the lethal 'type A' DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.The ISME Journal advance online publication, 27 October 2015; doi:10.1038/ismej.2015.186.

Phosphorus Availability in an Oxisol Amended with Biosolids in a Long-Term Field Experiment

Many extractors are used to quantify available P in soils, but few studies have assessed the availability of P in soils of the wet tropics amended with high rates of biosolids. In this study, ion exchange resin, Mehlich-1 solution, and Fe-impregnated strips were used to quantify available P in samples from an Oxisol amended with surface-applied biosolids in a long-term field experiment. The soil's maximum capacity for P adsorption was also estimated. Experimental design consisted of randomized blocks, with four treatments and three replicates. Samples of biosolids were collected every year during the experiment, from 1999 to 2002. In 1999, two applications were made before growing maize (Zea mays L.) in austral summer and winter. Treatments were: Control (no biosolids added); B (biosolids added at rates based on their total N content); B2 (biosolids added at twice the rate of B), and B4 (biosolids added at four times the rate of B). Soil samples were collected at 0- to 0.1-, 0.1- to 0.2-, and 0.2- to 0.4-m depths. Biosolids were broadcast applied and incorporated into the soil to a depth of 0.2 m using a rotary hoe. The Oxisol had a high P-adsorption capacity (around 2450 mg kg(-1)) because of its high contents of clay and Fe and Al oxides. All the extractors were effective at assessing P availability and were positively correlated among themselves. Available P soil contents correlated positively with P content in maize leaves and grains, and the resin method yielded the highest correlation with P contents in leaves and grains.

Long-Term Occupational Exposure to Organic Solvents Affects Color Vision, Contrast Sensitivity and Visual Fields

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the visual outcome of chronic occupational exposure to a mixture of organic solvents by measuring color discrimination, achromatic contrast sensitivity and visual fields in a group of gas station workers. We tested 25 workers (20 males) and 25 controls with no history of chronic exposure to solvents (10 males). All participants had normal ophthalmologic exams. Subjects had worked in gas stations on an average of 9.6 +/- 6.2 years. Color vision was evaluated with the Lanthony D15d and Cambridge Colour Test (CCT). Visual field assessment consisted of white-on-white 24-2 automatic perimetry (Humphrey II-750i). Contrast sensitivity was measured for sinusoidal gratings of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0 and 20.0 cycles per degree (cpd). Results from both groups were compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. The number of errors in the D15d was higher for workers relative to controls (p<0.01). Their CCT color discrimination thresholds were elevated compared to the control group along the protan, deutan and tritan confusion axes (p<0.01), and their ellipse area and ellipticity were higher (p<0.01). Genetic analysis of subjects with very elevated color discrimination thresholds excluded congenital causes for the visual losses. Automated perimetry thresholds showed elevation in the 9 degrees, 15 degrees and 21 degrees of eccentricity (p<0.01) and in MD and PSD indexes (p<0.01). Contrast sensitivity losses were found for all spatial frequencies measured (p<0.01) except for 0.5 cpd. Significant correlation was found between previous working years and deutan axis thresholds (rho = 0.59; p<0.05), indexes of the Lanthony D15d (rho = 0.52; p<0.05), perimetry results in the fovea (rho = -0.51; p<0.05) and at 3, 9 and 15 degrees of eccentricity (rho = -0.46; p<0.05). Extensive and diffuse visual changes were found, suggesting that specific occupational limits should be created.

Long-term decomposition of sugarcane harvest residues in Sao Paulo state, Brazil

Crop residues returned to the soil are important to preserve fertility and sustainability. This research addressed the long-term decomposition of sugarcane post-harvest residues (trash) under reduced tillage, therefore field renewal was performed with herbicide followed by subsoiling and ratoons were deprived of interrow scarification. The trial was conducted in the northern Sao Paulo State, Brazil during four consecutive crops (2005-2008) where litter bags containing N-15-labeled trash were disposed in the field attempting to simulate two distinct situations: the previous crop trash (PCT) or residues incorporated in the field after tillage, and post-harvest trash (PHT) or the remains of plant-cane harvest. Decomposition rates regarding dry matter (DM), carbon (C), root growth, plant nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg and S), lignin (LIG) cellulose (CEL) and hemicellulose (HCEL) contents were assessed for PCT (2005 ndash;2008) and for PHT (2006-2008). There were significant reductions on DM and C:N ratio due to C losses and root growth within the litter bags over time. The DM from PCT and PHT decreased 96% and 73% after four and three crops, respectively, and the higher nutrients release were found for K, Ca and N. The LIG, CEL and HCEL concentrations in PCT decreased 60%, 29%, 70% after four crops and 47%, 35%, 70% from PHT after three crops, respectively. Trash decomposition was driven mainly by residues biochemical composition, root growth within the trash blanket and the climatic conditions during the crop cycles. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite’s association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant ‘type B’ has become established in these colonies and that the lethal ‘type A’ DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite’s association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant ‘type B’ has become established in these colonies and that the lethal ‘type A’ DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.