Does Money Matter in the Euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia Index. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/12, 6 November 2014

The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible role of money shocks on output and prices in the euro area. Since no Divisia monetary aggregates are available for the euro area, we first create and make available a database on euro-area Divisia monetary aggregates. We plan to update the dataset in the future and keep it publicly available. Using different SVAR models, we find sensible and statistically significant responses to Divisia money shocks, while the responses to simple-sum measures of money and interest rates are not statistically significant, and sometimes even the point estimates are not sensible.

Methylation index of Branched Tetraethers (MBT) and Cyclization ratio of Branched Tetraethers (CBT), annual mean air temperature and soil pH of sediment core GeoB6518-1 in the Congo River basin

We analyzed the distribution of branched tetraether membrane lipids derived from soil bacteria in a marine sediment record that was recovered close to the Congo River outflow, and the results enabled us to reconstruct large-scale continental temperature changes in tropical Africa that span the past 25,000 years. Tropical African temperatures gradually increased from ~21° to 25°C over the last deglaciation, which is a larger warming than estimated for the tropical Atlantic Ocean. A direct comparison with sea-surface temperature estimates from the same core revealed that the land-sea temperature difference was, through the thermal pressure gradient, an important control on central African precipitation patterns.

Detection of coronary artery disease based on the calcification index obtained by helical computed tomography

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between coronary artery disease and the calcification index on helical computed tomography. METHOD: We studied 22 patients (ages ranging from 40 to 70 years) who underwent coronary angiography because of chest pain suggestive of angina pectoris. Findings on coronary angiography were classified as follows: significant obstructive disease (stenosis > or = 50%), nonobstructive disease (stenosis <50%), and no disease. With no previous knowledge of the results of the coronary angiography and within 7 days, helical computed tomography of the chest was performed. Then, data of the coronary angiography were correlated with the calcification index obtained by helical computed tomography. RESULTS: The sensitivity of helical computed tomography to the presence of significant obstructive lesions on coronary angiography was 87.5%, specificity was 100%, and negative and positive predictive values were 75% and 100%, respectively. The mean calcification index was greater in patients with severe coronary lesions, mainly when involvement of 2 or 3 vessels occurred, than that in patients with no coronary artery disease or with nonobstructive coronary artery lesions (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Helical computed tomography is an effective method for detecting and quantifying coronary artery calcification, and it has proved to be sensitive to and specific for the noninvasive diagnosis of coronary artery stenosis.

An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits

This paper builds on Lucas (2000) and on Cysne (2003) to derive and order six alternative measures of the welfare costs of inflation (five of which already existing in the literature) for any vector of opportunity costs. The ordering of the functions is carried out for economies with or without interestbearing deposits. We provide examples and closed-form solutions for the log-log money demand both in the unidimensional and in the multidimensional setting (when interest-bearing monies are present). An estimate of the maximum relative error a researcher can incur when using any particular measure is also provided.

Divisia indexes, money and welfare

We suggest the use of a particular Divisia index for measuring welfare losses due to interest rate wedges and in‡ation. Compared to the existing options in the literature: i) when the demands for the monetary assets are known, closed-form solutions for the welfare measures can be obtained at a relatively lower algebraic cost; ii) less demanding integrability conditions allow for the recovery of welfare measures from a larger class of demand systems and; iii) when the demand speci…cations are not known, using an index number entitles the researcher to rank di¤erent vectors of opportunity costs directly from market observations. We use two examples to illustrate the method.

(Figure 2) Organic carbon content, stable isotope ratios, TEX86 index and sea surface temperature reconstruction for the early Aptian of ODP Hole 198-1207B

The Cretaceous has long been recognized as a time when greenhouse conditions were fueled by elevated atmospheric CO2 and accompanied by perturbations of the global carbon cycle described as oceanic anoxic events (OAEs). Yet, the magnitude and frequency of temperature change during this interval of warm and equable climate are poorly constrained. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) reconstructed using the TEX86 paleothermometer for a sequence of early Aptian organic-rich sediments deposited during the first Cretaceous OAE (OAE1a) at Shatsky Rise in the tropical Pacific. SSTs range from ~30 to ~36 °C and include two prominent cooling episodes of ~4 °C. The cooler temperatures reflect significant temperature instability in the tropics likely triggered by changes in carbon cycling induced by enhanced burial of organic matter. SST instability recorded during the early Aptian in the Pacific is comparable to that reported for the late Albian-early Cenomanian in the Atlantic, suggesting that such climate perturbations may have recurred during the Cretaceous with concomitant consequences for biota and the marine environment.

Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Visual outcomes after bilateral trifocal diffractive intraocular lens implantation

Background In recent years new models of intraocular lenses are appearing on the market to reduce requirements for additional optical correction. The purpose of this study is to assess visual outcomes following bilateral cataract surgery and the implant of a FineVision® trifocal intraocular lens (IOL). Methods Prospective, nonrandomized, observational study. Vision was assessed in 44 eyes of 22 patients (mean age 68.4 ± 5.5 years) before and 3 months after surgery. Aberrations were determined using the Topcon KR-1 W wave-front analyzer. LogMAR visual acuity was measured at distance (corrected distance visual acuity, CDVA 4 m), intermediate (distance corrected intermediate visual acuity, DCIVA 60 cm) and near (distance corrected near visual acuity, DCNVA 40 cm). The Pelli-Robson letter chart and the CSV-1000 test were used to estimate contrast sensitivity (CS). Defocus curve testing was performed in photopic and mesopic conditions. Adverse photic phenomena were assessed using the Halo v1.0 program. Results Mean aberration values for a mesopic pupil diameter were: total HOA RMS: 0.41 ± 0.30 μm, coma: 0.32 ± 0.22 μm and spherical aberration: 0.21 ± 0.20 μm. Binocular logMAR measurements were: CDVA −0.05 ± 0.05, DCIVA 0.15 ± 0.10, and DCNVA 0.06 ± 0.10. Mean Pelli-Robson CS was 1.40 ± 0.14 log units. Mean CSV100 CS for the 4 frequencies examined (A: 3 cycles/degree (cpd), B: 6 cpd, C: 12 cpd, D: 18 cpd) were 1.64 ± 0.14, 1.77 ± 0.18, 1.44 ± 0.24 and 0.98 ± 0.24 log units, respectively. Significant differences were observed in defocus curves for photopic and mesopic conditions (p < 0.0001). A mean disturbance index of 0.28 ± 0.22 was obtained. Conclusions Bilateral FineVision IOL implant achieved a full range of adequate vision, satisfactory contrast sensitivity, and a lack of significant adverse photic phenomena. Trial registration Eudract Clinical Trials Registry Number: 2014-003266-2.

Efeito de medicamentos indicados para a prevenção da mastite bovina no período seco sobre a função fagocítica in vitro de leucócitos do leite de caprinos

O uso de medicamentos antimamíticos específicos para vacas no período seco é indicado para prevenção de infecções na lactação seguinte. Não obstante, a ação das células envolvidas no período de secagem tem fundamental importância para a involução da glândula mamária e seu restabelecimento para a lactação subseqüente. A indisponibilidade de tais medicamentos para uso em cabras tem resultado na extrapolação do uso de produtos recomendados para vacas sem que se considerem as particularidades e diferenças anátomo-fisiológicas entre as espécies bovina e caprina. O presente estudo teve por objetivo avaliar a influência de cinco antimamíticos específicos para vacas secas sobre a função dos fagócitos provenientes de leite caprino. Para tal, fez-se o isolamento de células somáticas de 20 amostras de leite provenientes de 10 cabras lactantes, sem antecedentes de tratamento de mamite nos últimos 30 dias, sob condições higiênico-sanitárias de colheita e com resultados negativos ao cultivo microbiológico do leite. As células aderidas a lamínulas de vidro foram confrontadas com formulações contendo princípios ativos disponíveis no mercado como Gentamicina (M1), Cefalônio Anidro (M2), Ampicilina (M3), Cloxacilina Benzatínica (M4) e Cefapirina Benzatínica (M5). Avaliou-se, por microscopia, a fagocitose de partículas de Zymosan. As médias dos índices de fagocitose das células submetidas ao tratamento com M2 (15,12% ± 16,22), M3 (6,02% ± 7,96), M4 (4,54% ± 5,45) e M5 (2,47% ± 4,64) foram menores (p<0,001) que a média dos índices de fagocitose do grupo controle (40,67% ± 19,68). A média dos índices de fagocitose das células submetidas ao tratamento com M2 foi maior (p<0,05) que as médias dos tratamentos com M3, M4 e M5 enquanto estas foram estatisticamente iguais entre si. As amostras celulares submetidas ao medicamento M1 exibiram adesão insuficiente ou ausente às lamínulas, inviabilizando a avaliação da fagocitose por meio da técnica utilizada. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que os medicamentos estudados exerceram influência negativa sobre os fagócitos do leite, porém, esta interferência sobre as funções das células somáticas não pode por si só determinar o insucesso da terapia proposta para o período seco, pois deve ser considerada, outrossim, a eficácia do princípio ativo sobre o patógeno causador do processo infeccioso.

Coactivation of the shoulder and arm muscles during closed kinetic chain exercises on an unstable surface

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare the electromyography index of muscle coactivation of the following muscle pairs: posterior deltoid and pectoralis major (PD/PM); triceps brachii and biceps brachii (TB/BB); and serratus anterior and upper trapezius (SA/UT) during three different closed kinetic chain exercises (wall-press, bench-press and push-up) on an unstable surface at the maximal load. Methods: A total of 20 healthy sedentary men participated in the study. Integral linear values were obtained from three sustained contractions of six seconds each for the three proposed exercises. Mean coactivation index values were compared using the mixed-effects linear model, with a five percent significance level. Results: Electromyography indexes of muscle coactivation showed significant differences for the PD/PM and TB/BB muscle pairs. No differences were found between exercises for the SA/UT muscle pair. Conclusion: Our results seem to differ from those of previous studies, which reported that the similarity in exercises performed is responsible for the comparable muscle activation levels.