One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Effect of Coldfog on the Corona Induced Degradation of Silicone Rubber Samples

Corona is an unavoidable phenomena in high voltage power transmission system, in spite of suitably designed insulator accessories and transmission line hardware. It is a proven fact that the continuous occurrence of corona can subject the polymeric insulator to a severe degradation. Further, moisture in the air has a positive influence on the corona activity. This paper presents the methodology to evaluate the corona performance of the silicone rubber housing material with simultaneous application of cold fog. Analysis conducted after corona treatment by the Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) present an interesting results showing a higher hydroxylation of sample surface under the moisture application than in the normal condition for both AC and DC excitation. FTIR spectrum also indicates the presence of nitric acid on the treated surface with coldfog application. Results obtained from SEM analysis are also presented.

Effect of sampling interval on estimates of larval supply

Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

Effect of temporal separation on synchronization in rhythmic performance

A variety of short time delays inserted between pairs of subjects were found to affect their ability to synchronize a musical task. The subjects performed a clapping rhythm together from separate sound-isolated rooms via headphones and without visual contact. One-way time delays between pairs were manipulated electronically in the range of 3 to 78 ms. We are interested in quantifying the envelope of time delay within which two individuals produce synchronous per- formances. The results indicate that there are distinct regimes of mutually coupled behavior, and that `natural time delay'o¨delay within the narrow range associated with travel times across spatial arrangements of groups and ensembleso¨supports the most stable performance. Conditions outside of this envelope, with time delays both below and above it, create characteristic interaction dynamics in the mutually coupled actions of the duo. Trials at extremely short delays (corresponding to unnaturally close proximity) had a tendency to accelerate from anticipation. Synchronization lagged at longer delays (larger than usual physical distances) and produced an increasingly severe deceleration and then deterioration of performed rhythms. The study has implications for music collaboration over the Internet and suggests that stable rhythmic performance can be achieved by `wired ensembles' across distances of thousands of kilometers.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

Perceptions of high involvement work practices, person-organization fit and burnout: a time lagged study of health care employees

Previous research demonstrates that high-involvement work practices (HIWPs) may be associated with burnout (emotional exhaustion and depersonalization); however, to date, the process through which HIWPs influence burnout is not clear. This article examined the impact of HIWPs on long-term burnout (emotional exhaustion and depersonalization) by considering the mediating role of person-organization fit (P-O fit) in this relationship. The study used a time-lagged design and was conducted in a Canadian general hospital among health care personnel. Findings from structural equation modeling (N = 185) revealed that perceived HIWPs were positively associated with P-O fit. There was no direct effect of HIWPs on burnout; rather, P-O fit fully mediated the relationship between employee perceptions of HIWPs and burnout. This study fills a void in the HR and burnout literature by demonstrating the role that P-O fit has in explaining how HIWPs alleviate emotional exhaustion and depersonalization. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

El Niño southern oscillation and its effect on fog oases along the Peruvian and Chilean coastal deserts

Fog oases, locally named Lomas, are distributed in a fragmented way along the western coast of Chile and Peru (South America) between ~6°S and 30°S following an altitudinal gradient determined by a fog layer. This fragmentation has been attributed to the hyper aridity of the desert. However, periodically climatic events influence the ‘normal seasonality’ of this ecosystem through a higher than average water input that triggers plant responses (e.g. primary productivity and phenology). The impact of the climatic oscillation may vary according to the season (wet/dry). This thesis evaluates the potential effect of climate oscillations, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), through the analysis of vegetation of this ecosystem following different approaches: Chapters two and three show the analysis of fog oasis along the Peruvian and Chilean deserts. The objectives are: 1) to explain the floristic connection of fog oases analysing their taxa composition differences and the phylogenetic affinities among them, 2) to explore the climate variables related to ENSO which likely affect fog production, and the responses of Lomas vegetation (composition, productivity, distribution) to climate patterns during ENSO events. Chapters four and five describe a fog-oasis in southern Peru during the 2008-2010 period. The objectives are: 3) to describe and create a new vegetation map of the Lomas vegetation using remote sensing analysis supported by field survey data, and 4) to identify the vegetation change during the dry season. The first part of our results show that: 1) there are three significantly different groups of Lomas (Northern Peru, Southern Peru, and Chile) with a significant phylogenetic divergence among them. The species composition reveals a latitudinal gradient of plant assemblages. The species origin, growth-forms typologies, and geographic position also reinforce the differences among groups. 2) Contradictory results have emerged from studies of low-cloud anomalies and the fog-collection during El Niño (EN). EN increases water availability in fog oases when fog should be less frequent due to the reduction of low-clouds amount and stratocumulus. Because a minor role of fog during EN is expected, it is likely that measurements of fog-water collection during EN are considering drizzle and fog at the same time. Although recent studies on fog oases have shown some relationship with the ENSO, responses of vegetation have been largely based on descriptive data, the absence of large temporal records limit the establishment of a direct relationship with climatic oscillations. The second part of the results show that: 3) five different classes of different spectral values correspond to the main land cover of Lomas using a Vegetation Index (VI). The study case is characterised by shrubs and trees with variable cover (dense, semi-dense and open). A secondary area is covered by small shrubs where the dominant tree species is not present. The cacti area and the old terraces with open vegetation were not identified with the VI. Agriculture is present in the area. Finally, 4) contrary to the dry season of 2008 and 2009 years, a higher VI was obtained during the dry season of 2010. The VI increased up to three times their average value, showing a clear spectral signal change, which coincided with the ENSO event of that period.

Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Altered resting-state EEG source functional connectivity in schizophrenia:the effect of illness duration

Despite the increasing body of evidence supporting the hypothesis of schizophrenia as a disconnection syndrome, studies of resting-state EEG Source Functional Connectivity (EEG-SFC) in people affected by schizophrenia are sparse. The aim of the present study was to investigate resting-state EEG-SFC in 77 stable, medicated patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) compared to 78 healthy volunteers (HV). In order to study the effect of illness duration, SCZ were divided in those with a short duration of disease (SDD; n = 25) and those with a long duration of disease (LDD; n = 52). Resting-state EEG recordings in eyes closed condition were analyzed and lagged phase synchronization (LPS) indices were calculated for each ROI pair in the source-space EEG data. In delta and theta bands, SCZ had greater EEG-SFC than HV; a higher theta band connectivity in frontal regions was observed in LDD compared with SDD. In the alpha band, SCZ showed lower frontal EEG-SFC compared with HV whereas no differences were found between LDD and SDD. In the beta1 band, SCZ had greater EEG-SFC compared with HVs and in the beta2 band, LDD presented lower frontal and parieto-temporal EEG-SFC compared with HV. In the gamma band, SDD had greater connectivity values compared with LDD and HV. This study suggests that resting state brain network connectivity is abnormally organized in schizophrenia, with different patterns for the different EEG frequency components and that EEG can be a powerful tool to further elucidate the complexity of such disordered connectivity.