The Cambridge Equation with government activity revisited

Neste artigo faz-se uma análise das características distributivas do processo Kaldor-Pasinetti, assumindo-se que o setor governamental incorre em persistentes déficits que podem ser financiados através de diferentes instrumentos, como a emissão de títulos e de moeda. Através dessa abordagem é possível estudar como a atividade governamental afeta a distribuição de renda entre capitalistas e trabalhadores e assim obter generalizações do Teorema de Cambridge em que versões anteriores como as de Steedman (1972), Pasinetti (1989), Dalziel (1991) e Faria (2000) surgem como casos particulares. _________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT

La sociedad civil global. Una respuesta a la guerra -de Mary Kaldor-

--

Periodicity in a delayed version of the kaldor trade cycle model

We are concerned with the Kaldor's trade cycle model under the effect of a delay which represents a gestation lag between a decision of investment and its effect on the capital stock. Taking the adjustment coefficient in the goods market as a bifurcation parameter, we achieve global branches of periodic solutions. In our setting the delay is a constant inherent to the specific economy. Copyright © 2013 Watam Press.

O pólo industrial de Manaus como modelo de desenvolvimento econômico avaliado sob o enfoque da Lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn

Este estudo tem como objetivo mensurar e avaliar a dinâmica econômica do Pólo Industrial de Manaus como um modelo de desenvolvimento sob o enfoque da Lei de kaldor-Verdoorn. Especificamente, analisar a relação entre produção e produtividade, sob as condições preconizadas por esta lei, aplicadas às indústrias do Pólo Industrial de Manaus. A Lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn propõe que à medida que a produção aumenta, há uma forte tendência, ao longo do tempo, de crescimento da produtividade. Economias de escala são geradas endogenamente por mudança técnica e aprendizagem tecnológica (learning by doing), fruto do crescimento da demanda que permite que se explore as economias de escala dinâmicas presentes, principalmente, no setor manufatureiro. Dessa forma, estima-se a produtividade total de fatores e a produtividade parcial. Analisa-se a dinâmica dessa economia efetuando-se teste empírico para a indústria do Pólo Industrial de Manaus, no período de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2004, através de um modelo de correção de erros, teste de causalidade de Granger e modelo VAR estrutural,. Os resultados obtidos indicam um razoável grau de dinamismo dessa economia, dado que a combinação de efeitos de curto e longo prazo fez com que a produtividade crescesse num ritmo mais acelerado, com respostas rápidas no curto prazo, da produtividade a choques de mudanças no valor total da produção e emprego. Comprovam também a existência de fontes endógenas de crescimento da produtividade, evidenciando economias de escala crescente.

Política econômica brasileira frente à crise mundial recente : uma análise baseada nas contribuições de Kaldor

Neste trabalho avaliamos os resultados macroeconômicos recentes da economia brasileira por meio de um instrumental analítico baseado em uma extensão geométrica e algébrica do artigo seminal de Kaldor (1971), que levou à criação do quadrado mágico. Essa abordagem permite a comparação do desempenho pré-crise (2007-2008) e durante a crise (2009-2010). Nossa análise levanta algumas dúvidas sobre as medidas de política econômica adotadas na busca por contornar a presente crise e reduzir obstáculos estruturais no processo de desenvolvimento econômico no Brasil. Concluímos que a complexidade da gestão macroeconômica tem sido subestimada. No que tange às estratégias econômicas, nossa abordagem está centrada na controvérsia entre export-led growth vs consumption-led growth. _________________________________________________________________________________ RESUMEN

Stockholm Syndrome : architecture, politics and the human body

The exchange between the body and architecture walks a fine line between violence and pleasure. It is through the body that the subject engages with the architectural act, not via thought or reason, but through action. The materiality of architecture is the often the catalyst for some intense association; the wall that defines gender or class, the double bolted door that incarcerates, the enclosed privacy of the bedroom to the love affair. Architecture is the physical manifestation of Lefebvre’s inscribed space. It enacts the social and political systems through bodily occupation. Architecture, when tested by the occupation of bodies, anchors ideology in both space and time. The architect’s script can be powerful when rehearsed honestly to the building’s intentions and just as beautiful when rebuked by the act of protest or unfaithful occupation. This research examines this fine line of violence and pleasure in architecture through performance, in the work of Bryony Lavin’s play Stockholm and Revolving Door by Allora & Calzadilla as part of the recent Kaldor Public Art Projects exhibition 13 Rooms in Sydney. The research is underpinned by the work of Architect and theorist, Bernard Tschumi in his two essays, Violence of Architecture and The Pleasure of Architecture. Studying architecture through the lens of performance shifts the focus of examination from pure thought to the body; because architecture is occupied through the body and not the mind.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

Doctrina Social de la Iglesia y Teoría Económica : dos enfoques divergentes para un mundo en transformación

Resumen: El artículo tiene por tema central la importancia de la intervención de la Iglesia en asuntos socio-económicos. El autor parte de dos interrogantes: el motivo por el cual se instauró la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia a finales del siglo XIX y no anteriormente, y las razones que condujeron al quiebre entre la Doctrina Social de la Iglesia y la teoría económica dominante. Para dar respuesta a estas cuestiones, Pasinetti se remonta a los inicios del Cristianismo, y realiza un análisis histórico del desarrollo de la teoría económica hasta la proclamación de la encíclica Rerum Novarum en 1891. El autor explica que ese corpus doctrinal surgió como resultado de tres eventos históricos: la Revolución Industrial, el impacto de la obra de Karl Marx, y la falla en formular una teoría económica capaz de resolver los problemas de un mundo nuevo. La Doctrina Social de la Iglesia, entonces, está llamada a superar estas dificultades ya que posee las herramientas necesarias para lograrlo.

Expression of C5a receptor in mouse brain: Role in signal transduction and neurodegeneration

In this study we explored the potential role of the complement derived anaphylatoxin C5a and the expression of its receptor in mouse brain. Using in situ hybridization, we found that C5a receptor messenger RNA is expressed in mouse brain. In response to intraventricular kainic acid injection, there was marked increase in the C5a receptor messenger RNA expression, particularly in hippocampal formation and cerebral cortex. C5a ligand-binding autoradiography confirmed the functional expression and elevation of the C5a receptor post-lesioning. The expression of Cia receptor messenger RNA in brain was confirmed by northern blot hybridization of total RNA from neuronal and glial cells in vitiro. Based on these findings we explored the role of C5a in mechanisms of signal transduction in brain cells. Treatment of primary cultures of mouse astrocytes with human recombinant C5a resulted in the activation of mitogen-activated extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase. This response appeared to be mediated by the C5a receptor since astrocyte cultures derived from C5a receptor knockout mice were not responsive to the treatment. Understanding the regulation of C5a receptor in brain and mechanisms by which pro-inflammatory C5a modulates specific signal transduction pathways in brain cells is crucial to studies of inflammatory mechanisms in neurodegeneration. (C) 1998 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

La problemática de los “residuos humanos” a partir del análisis de la situación de los refugiados en la frontera entre Liberia y Sierra Leona en el periodo 2000-2003 a la luz del concepto de seguridad humana

Esta monografía está dedicada a estudiar dos conflictos que tuvieron lugar en África tal como fueron los conflictos de Liberia y Sierra Leona, los cuales se prolongaron por muchos años y se caracterizaban por el uso de la fuerza en contra de la población civil como método de terror que en términos de Mary Kaldor pueden ser caracterizados como Nuevas Guerras, y como resultado de estos temores infundados, la población civil se convierte en desplazados o refugiados a causa de la violencia, los cuales no encuentran una fácil acogida en los países o lugares en los que buscan refugio y protección y así Zygmunt Bauman los caracteriza como Residuos Humanos como sinónimo del rechazo que recibe esta población y de las condiciones poco dignas humanamente a las que se enfrentan para sobrevivir ya que parecieran no tener cabida en las sociedades de acogida.