Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

Shelf-life of a 2.5% sodium hypochlorite solution as determined by arrhenius equation

Accelerated stability tests are indicated to assess, within a short time, the degree of chemical degradation that may affect an active substance, either alone or in a formula, under normal storage conditions. This method is based on increased stress conditions to accelerate the rate of chemical degradation. Based on the equation of the straight line obtained as a function of the reaction order (at 50 and 70 ºC) and using Arrhenius equation, the speed of the reaction was calculated for the temperature of 20 ºC (normal storage conditions). This model of accelerated stability test makes it possible to predict the chemical stability of any active substance at any given moment, as long as the method to quantify the chemical substance is available. As an example of the applicability of Arrhenius equation in accelerated stability tests, a 2.5% sodium hypochlorite solution was analyzed due to its chemical instability. Iodometric titration was used to quantify free residual chlorine in the solutions. Based on data obtained keeping this solution at 50 and 70 ºC, using Arrhenius equation and considering 2.0% of free residual chlorine as the minimum acceptable threshold, the shelf-life was equal to 166 days at 20 ºC. This model, however, makes it possible to calculate shelf-life at any other given temperature.

Existence Results for Abstract Partial Neutral Integro-differential Equation with Unbounded Delay

In this paper we study the existence and regularity of mild solutions for a class of abstract partial neutral integro-differential equations with unbounded delay.

Equation of state for the magnetic-color-flavor-locked phase and its implications for compact star models

Using the solutions of the gap equations of the magnetic-color-flavor-locked (MCFL) phase of paired quark matter in a magnetic field, and taking into consideration the separation between the longitudinal and transverse pressures due to the field-induced breaking of the spatial rotational symmetry, the equation of state of the MCFL phase is self-consistently determined. This result is then used to investigate the possibility of absolute stability, which turns out to require a field-dependent ""bag constant"" to hold. That is, only if the bag constant varies with the magnetic field, there exists a window in the magnetic field vs bag constant plane for absolute stability of strange matter. Implications for stellar models of magnetized (self-bound) strange stars and hybrid (MCFL core) stars are calculated and discussed.

Entropy production in irreversible systems described by a Fokker-Planck equation

We analyze the irreversibility and the entropy production in nonequilibrium interacting particle systems described by a Fokker-Planck equation by the use of a suitable master equation representation. The irreversible character is provided either by nonconservative forces or by the contact with heat baths at distinct temperatures. The expression for the entropy production is deduced from a general definition, which is related to the probability of a trajectory in phase space and its time reversal, that makes no reference a priori to the dissipated power. Our formalism is applied to calculate the heat conductance in a simple system consisting of two Brownian particles each one in contact to a heat reservoir. We show also the connection between the definition of entropy production rate and the Jarzynski equality.

Equivalence between Redfield- and master-equation approaches for a time-dependent quantum system and coherence control

We present a derivation of the Redfield formalism for treating the dissipative dynamics of a time-dependent quantum system coupled to a classical environment. We compare such a formalism with the master equation approach where the environments are treated quantum mechanically. Focusing on a time-dependent spin-1/2 system we demonstrate the equivalence between both approaches by showing that they lead to the same Bloch equations and, as a consequence, to the same characteristic times T(1) and T(2) (associated with the longitudinal and transverse relaxations, respectively). These characteristic times are shown to be related to the operator-sum representation and the equivalent phenomenological-operator approach. Finally, we present a protocol to circumvent the decoherence processes due to the loss of energy (and thus, associated with T(1)). To this end, we simply associate the time dependence of the quantum system to an easily achieved modulated frequency. A possible implementation of the protocol is also proposed in the context of nuclear magnetic resonance.

A coupled boundary element/differential equation method formulation for plate-beam interaction analysis

In this work, a new boundary element formulation for the analysis of plate-beam interaction is presented. This formulation uses a three nodal value boundary elements and each beam element is replaced by its actions on the plate, i.e., a distributed load and end of element forces. From the solution of the differential equation of a beam with linearly distributed load the plate-beam interaction tractions can be written as a function of the nodal values of the beam. With this transformation a final system of equation in the nodal values of displacements of plate boundary and beam nodes is obtained and from it, all unknowns of the plate-beam system are obtained. Many examples are analyzed and the results show an excellent agreement with those from the analytical solution and other numerical methods. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Darcy`s law and the differential equation of motion

This note addresses the relation between the differential equation of motion and Darcy`s law. It is shown that, in different flow conditions, three versions of Darcy`s law can be rigorously derived from the equation of motion.

Scaling of structures subject to impact loads when using a power law constitutive equation

It is well known that structures subjected to dynamic loads do not follow the usual similarity laws when the material is strain rate sensitive. As a consequence, it is not possible to use a scaled model to predict the prototype behaviour. In the present study, this problem is overcome by changing the impact velocity so that the model behaves exactly as the prototype. This exact solution is generated thanks to the use of an exponential constitutive law to infer the dynamic flow stress. Furthermore, it is shown that the adopted procedure does not rely on any previous knowledge of the structure response. Three analytical models are used to analyze the performance of the technique. It is shown that perfect similarity is achieved, regardless of the magnitude of the scaling factor. For the class of material used, the solution outlined has long been sought, inasmuch as it allows perfect similarity for strain rate sensitive structures subject to impact loads. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AN ASSESSMENT ON THE USE OF THE DEBYE-HUCKEL EQUATION FOR THE THERMODYNAMIC MODELING OF AQUEOUS SYSTEMS CONTAINING POLYMERS AND SALTS

In this work, a study on the role of the long-range term of excess Gibbs energy models in the modeling of aqueous systems containing polymers and salts is presented. Four different approaches on how to account for the presence of polymer in the long-range term were considered, and simulations were conducted considering aqueous solutions of three different salts. The analysis of water activity curves showed that, in all cases, a liquid-phase separation may be introduced by the sole presence of the polymer in the long-range term, regardless of how it is taken into account. The results lead to the conclusion that there is no single exact solution for this problem, and that any kind of approach may introduce inconsistencies.

An extension of the Pitzer equation for the excess Gibbs energy of aqueous electrolyte systems to aqueous polyelectrolyte solutions

Pitzer`s equation for the excess Gibbs energy of aqueous solutions of low-molecular electrolytes is extended to aqueous solutions of polyelectrolytes. The model retains the original form of Pitzer`s model (combining a long-range term, based on the Debye-Huckel equation, with a short-range term similar to the virial equation where the second osmotic virial coefficient depends on the ionic strength). The extension consists of two parts: at first, it is assumed that a constant fraction of the monomer units of the polyelectrolyte is dissociated, i.e., that fraction does not depend on the concentration of the polyelectrolyte, and at second, a modified expression for the ionic strength (wherein each charged monomer group is taken into account individually) is introduced. This modification is to account for the presence of charged polyelectrolyte chains, which cannot be regarded as punctual charges. The resulting equation was used to correlate osmotic coefficient data of aqueous solutions of a single polyelectrolyte as well as of binary mixtures of a single polyelectrolyte and a salt with low-molecular weight. It was additionally applied to correlate liquid-liquid equilibrium data of some aqueous two-phase systems that might form when a polyelectrolyte and another hydrophilic but neutral polymer are simultaneously dissolved in water. A good agreement between the experimental data and the correlation result is observed for all investigated systems. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extension of a Recent Method for Obtaining Exact Solutions of the Bruce and Klute Equation

A method based on a specific power-law relationship between the hydraulic head and the Boltzmann variable was recently presented. We generalized this relationship to a range of powers and extended the solution to include the saturated zone. As a result, the new solution satisfies the Bruce and Klute equation exactly.