Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Evaluation of air quality impacts with an integrated assessment model for Spain

The present paper describes the advancement and evaluation of air quality-related impacts with the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS). In its current version, AERIS is able to provide estimates on the impacts of air quality over human health (PM2.5 and O3), crops and vegetation (O3). The modules that allow quantifying the before mentioned impacts were modeled by applying different approaches (mostly for the European context) present in scientific literature to the conditions of the Iberian Peninsula. This application was supported by reliable data sources, as well as by the good predictive capacity of AERIS for ambient concentrations. For validation purposes, the estimates of AERIS for impacts on human health (change in the statistical life expectancy-PM2.5) and vegetation (loss of wheat crops-O3) were compared against results from the SERCA project and GAINS estimates for two emission scenarios. In general, good results evidenced by reasonable correlation coefficients were obtained, therefore confirming the adequateness of the followed modeling approaches and the quality of AERIS predictions.

An integrated assessment model for cross-country pipelines

The cross-country petroleum pipelines are environmentally sensitive because they traverse through varied terrain covering crop fields, forests, rivers, populated areas, desert, hills and offshore. Any malfunction of these pipelines may cause devastating effect on the environment. Hence, the pipeline operators plan and design pipelines projects with sufficient consideration of environment and social aspects along with the technological alternatives. Traditionally, in project appraisal, optimum technical alternative is selected using financial analysis. Impact assessments (IA) are then carried out to justify the selection and subsequent statutory approval. However, the IAs often suggest alternative sites and/or alternate technology and implementation methodology, resulting in revision of entire technical and financial analysis. This study addresses the above issues by developing an integrated framework for project feasibility analysis with the application of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique. The model considers technical analysis (TA), socioeconomic IA (SEIA) and environmental IA (EIA) in an integrated framework to select the best project from a few alternative feasible projects. Subsequent financial analysis then justifies the selection. The entire methodology has been explained here through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Development and implementation of an air quality integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula

La mejora de la calidad del aire es una tarea eminentemente interdisciplinaria. Dada la gran variedad de ciencias y partes involucradas, dicha mejora requiere de herramientas de evaluación simples y completamente integradas. La modelización para la evaluación integrada (integrated assessment modeling) ha demostrado ser una solución adecuada para la descripción de los sistemas de contaminación atmosférica puesto que considera cada una de las etapas involucradas: emisiones, química y dispersión atmosférica, impactos ambientales asociados y potencial de disminución. Varios modelos de evaluación integrada ya están disponibles a escala continental, cubriendo cada una de las etapas antesmencionadas, siendo el modelo GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) el más reconocido y usado en el contexto europeo de toma de decisiones medioambientales. Sin embargo, el manejo de la calidad del aire a escala nacional/regional dentro del marco de la evaluación integrada es deseable. Esto sin embargo, no se lleva a cabo de manera satisfactoria con modelos a escala europea debido a la falta de resolución espacial o de detalle en los datos auxiliares, principalmente los inventarios de emisión y los patrones meteorológicos, entre otros. El objetivo de esta tesis es presentar los desarrollos en el diseño y aplicación de un modelo de evaluación integrada especialmente concebido para España y Portugal. El modelo AERIS (Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain) es capaz de cuantificar perfiles de concentración para varios contaminantes (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2,5, NH3 y O3), el depósito atmosférico de especies de azufre y nitrógeno así como sus impactos en cultivos, vegetación, ecosistemas y salud como respuesta a cambios porcentuales en las emisiones de sectores relevantes. La versión actual de AERIS considera 20 sectores de emisión, ya sea equivalentes a sectores individuales SNAP o macrosectores, cuya contribución a los niveles de calidad del aire, depósito e impactos han sido modelados a través de matrices fuentereceptor (SRMs). Estas matrices son constantes de proporcionalidad que relacionan cambios en emisiones con diferentes indicadores de calidad del aire y han sido obtenidas a través de parametrizaciones estadísticas de un modelo de calidad del aire (AQM). Para el caso concreto de AERIS, su modelo de calidad del aire “de origen” consistió en el modelo WRF para la meteorología y en el modelo CMAQ para los procesos químico-atmosféricos. La cuantificación del depósito atmosférico, de los impactos en ecosistemas, cultivos, vegetación y salud humana se ha realizado siguiendo las metodologías estándar establecidas bajo los marcos internacionales de negociación, tales como CLRTAP. La estructura de programación está basada en MATLAB®, permitiendo gran compatibilidad con software típico de escritorio comoMicrosoft Excel® o ArcGIS®. En relación con los niveles de calidad del aire, AERIS es capaz de proveer datos de media anual y media mensual, así como el 19o valor horario más alto paraNO2, el 25o valor horario y el 4o valor diario más altos para SO2, el 36o valor diario más alto para PM10, el 26o valor octohorario más alto, SOMO35 y AOT40 para O3. En relación al depósito atmosférico, el depósito acumulado anual por unidad de area de especies de nitrógeno oxidado y reducido al igual que de azufre pueden ser determinados. Cuando los valores anteriormente mencionados se relacionan con características del dominio modelado tales como uso de suelo, cubiertas vegetales y forestales, censos poblacionales o estudios epidemiológicos, un gran número de impactos puede ser calculado. Centrándose en los impactos a ecosistemas y suelos, AERIS es capaz de estimar las superaciones de cargas críticas y las superaciones medias acumuladas para especies de nitrógeno y azufre. Los daños a bosques se calculan como una superación de los niveles críticos de NO2 y SO2 establecidos. Además, AERIS es capaz de cuantificar daños causados por O3 y SO2 en vid, maíz, patata, arroz, girasol, tabaco, tomate, sandía y trigo. Los impactos en salud humana han sido modelados como consecuencia de la exposición a PM2,5 y O3 y cuantificados como pérdidas en la esperanza de vida estadística e indicadores de mortalidad prematura. La exactitud del modelo de evaluación integrada ha sido contrastada estadísticamente con los resultados obtenidos por el modelo de calidad del aire convencional, exhibiendo en la mayoría de los casos un buen nivel de correspondencia. Debido a que la cuantificación de los impactos no es llevada a cabo directamente por el modelo de calidad del aire, un análisis de credibilidad ha sido realizado mediante la comparación de los resultados de AERIS con los de GAINS para un escenario de emisiones determinado. El análisis reveló un buen nivel de correspondencia en las medias y en las distribuciones probabilísticas de los conjuntos de datos. Las pruebas de verificación que fueron aplicadas a AERIS sugieren que los resultados son suficientemente consistentes para ser considerados como razonables y realistas. En conclusión, la principal motivación para la creación del modelo fue el producir una herramienta confiable y a la vez simple para el soporte de las partes involucradas en la toma de decisiones, de cara a analizar diferentes escenarios “y si” con un bajo coste computacional. La interacción con políticos y otros actores dictó encontrar un compromiso entre la complejidad del modeladomedioambiental con el carácter conciso de las políticas, siendo esto algo que AERIS refleja en sus estructuras conceptual y computacional. Finalmente, cabe decir que AERIS ha sido creado para su uso exclusivo dentro de un marco de evaluación y de ninguna manera debe ser considerado como un sustituto de los modelos de calidad del aire ordinarios. ABSTRACT Improving air quality is an eminently inter-disciplinary task. The wide variety of sciences and stakeholders that are involved call for having simple yet fully-integrated and reliable evaluation tools available. Integrated AssessmentModeling has proved to be a suitable solution for the description of air pollution systems due to the fact that it considers each of the involved stages: emissions, atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, environmental impacts and abatement potentials. Some integrated assessment models are available at European scale that cover each of the before mentioned stages, being the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model the most recognized and widely-used within a European policy-making context. However, addressing air quality at the national/regional scale under an integrated assessment framework is desirable. To do so, European-scale models do not provide enough spatial resolution or detail in their ancillary data sources, mainly emission inventories and local meteorology patterns as well as associated results. The objective of this dissertation is to present the developments in the design and application of an Integrated Assessment Model especially conceived for Spain and Portugal. The Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated system for Spain (AERIS) is able to quantify concentration profiles for several pollutants (NO2, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, NH3 and O3), the atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species and their related impacts on crops, vegetation, ecosystems and health as a response to percentual changes in the emissions of relevant sectors. The current version of AERIS considers 20 emission sectors, either corresponding to individual SNAP sectors or macrosectors, whose contribution to air quality levels, deposition and impacts have been modeled through the use of source-receptor matrices (SRMs). Thesematrices are proportionality constants that relate emission changes with different air quality indicators and have been derived through statistical parameterizations of an air qualitymodeling system (AQM). For the concrete case of AERIS, its parent AQM relied on the WRF model for meteorology and on the CMAQ model for atmospheric chemical processes. The quantification of atmospheric deposition, impacts on ecosystems, crops, vegetation and human health has been carried out following the standard methodologies established under international negotiation frameworks such as CLRTAP. The programming structure isMATLAB ® -based, allowing great compatibility with typical software such as Microsoft Excel ® or ArcGIS ® Regarding air quality levels, AERIS is able to provide mean annual andmean monthly concentration values, as well as the indicators established in Directive 2008/50/EC, namely the 19th highest hourly value for NO2, the 25th highest daily value and the 4th highest hourly value for SO2, the 36th highest daily value of PM10, the 26th highest maximum 8-hour daily value, SOMO35 and AOT40 for O3. Regarding atmospheric deposition, the annual accumulated deposition per unit of area of species of oxidized and reduced nitrogen as well as sulfur can be estimated. When relating the before mentioned values with specific characteristics of the modeling domain such as land use, forest and crops covers, population counts and epidemiological studies, a wide array of impacts can be calculated. When focusing on impacts on ecosystems and soils, AERIS is able to estimate critical load exceedances and accumulated average exceedances for nitrogen and sulfur species. Damage on forests is estimated as an exceedance of established critical levels of NO2 and SO2. Additionally, AERIS is able to quantify damage caused by O3 and SO2 on grapes, maize, potato, rice, sunflower, tobacco, tomato, watermelon and wheat. Impacts on human health aremodeled as a consequence of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 and quantified as losses in statistical life expectancy and premature mortality indicators. The accuracy of the IAM has been tested by statistically contrasting the obtained results with those yielded by the conventional AQM, exhibiting in most cases a good agreement level. Due to the fact that impacts cannot be directly produced by the AQM, a credibility analysis was carried out for the outputs of AERIS for a given emission scenario by comparing them through probability tests against the performance of GAINS for the same scenario. This analysis revealed a good correspondence in the mean behavior and the probabilistic distributions of the datasets. The verification tests that were applied to AERIS suggest that results are consistent enough to be credited as reasonable and realistic. In conclusion, the main reason thatmotivated the creation of this model was to produce a reliable yet simple screening tool that would provide decision and policy making support for different “what-if” scenarios at a low computing cost. The interaction with politicians and other stakeholders dictated that reconciling the complexity of modeling with the conciseness of policies should be reflected by AERIS in both, its conceptual and computational structures. It should be noted however, that AERIS has been created under a policy-driven framework and by no means should be considered as a substitute of the ordinary AQM.

RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Assessment of aquatic plants in the reservoirs of AES-Tiete and development of an integrated control model for the most important species

The general objective of this work was to develop a monitoring and management model for aquatic plants that could be used in reservoir cascades in Brazil, using the reservoirs of AES-Tiete as a study case. The investigations were carried out at the reservoirs of Barra-Bonita, Bariri, Ibitinga, Promissao, and Nova-Avanhandava, located in the Tiete River Basin; Agua Vermelha, located in the Grande River Basin; Caconde, Limoeiro, and Euclides da Cunha, which are part of the Pardo River Basin; and the Mogi-Guacu reservoir, which belongs to the Mogi-Guacu River basin. The main products of this work were: development of techniques using satellite-generated images for monitoring and planning aquatic plant control; planning and construction of a boat to move floating plant masses and an airboat equipped with a DGPS navigation and application flow control system. Results allowed to conclude that the occurrence of all types of aquatic plants is directly associated with sedimentation process and, consequently, with nutrient and light availability. Reservoirs placed at the beginning of cascades are more subject to sedimentation and occurrence of marginal, floating and emerged plants, and are the priority when it comes to controlling these plants, since they provide a supply of weeds for the other reservoirs. Reservoirs placed downstream show smaller amounts of water-suspended solids, with greater transmission of light and occurrence of submerged plants.

Efficiency analysis of information technology and online social networks management : an integrated DEA-Model assessment

This paper analyses the relationship between productive efficiency and online-social-networks (OSN) in Spanish telecommunications firms. A data-envelopment-analysis (DEA) is used and several indicators of business ?social Media? activities are incorporated. A super-efficiency analysis and bootstrapping techniques are performed to increase the model?s robustness and accuracy. Then, a logistic regression model is applied to characterise factors and drivers of good performance in OSN. Results reveal the company?s ability to absorb and utilise OSNs as a key factor in improving the productive efficiency. This paper presents a model for assessing the strategic performance of the presence and activity in OSN.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Development of a modelling framework in support of an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change in the Caribbean: the ECLAC – CIAM Model

The Caribbean region remains highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In order to assess the social and economic consequences of climate change for the region, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean( ECLAC) has developed a model for this purpose. The model is referred to as the Climate Impact Assessment Model (ECLAC-CIAM) and is a tool that can simultaneously assess multiple sectoral climate impacts specific to the Caribbean as a whole and for individual countries. To achieve this goal, an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) with a Computable General Equilibrium Core was developed comprising of three modules to be executed sequentially. The first of these modules defines the type and magnitude of economic shocks on the basis of a climate change scenario, the second module is a global Computable General Equilibrium model with a special regional and industrial classification and the third module processes the output of the CGE model to get more disaggregated results. The model has the potential to produce several economic estimates but the current default results include percentage change in real national income for individual Caribbean states which provides a simple measure of welfare impacts. With some modifications, the model can also be used to consider the effects of single sectoral shocks such as (Land, Labour, Capital and Tourism) on the percentage change in real national income. Ultimately, the model is envisioned as an evolving tool for assessing the impact of climate change in the Caribbean and as a guide to policy responses with respect to adaptation strategies.

Implementation of a module for risk of ozone impacts assessment to vegetation in the integrated assessment modelling system for the Iberian peninsula. Evaluation for wheat and holm oak

A module to estimate risks of ozone damage to vegetation has been implemented in the Integrated Assessment Modelling system for the Iberian Peninsula. It was applied to compute three different indexes for wheat and Holm oak; daylight AOT40 (cumulative ozone concentration over 40 ppb), cumulative ozone exposure index according to the Directive 2008/50/EC (AOT40-D) and PODY (Phytotoxic Ozone Dose over a given threshold of Y nmol m−2 s−1). The use of these indexes led to remarkable differences in spatial patterns of relative ozone risks on vegetation. Ozone critical levels were exceeded in most of the modelling domain and soil moisture content was found to have a significant impact on the results. According to the outputs of the model, daylight AOT40 constitutes a more conservative index than the AOT40-D. Additionally, flux-based estimations indicate high risk areas in Portugal for both wheat and Holm oak that are not identified by AOT-based methods.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.