Medindo a credibilidade do banco central brasileiro

Este trabalho busca medir a credibilidade do Banco Central Brasileiro. Utiliza-se como medida da credibilidade, a variação do prêmio de risco de inflação em função de surpresas inflacionárias de curto prazo no índice IPCA. Primeiro evidencia-se que as expectativas inflacionárias de médio prazo são afetadas pelas surpresas inflacionárias, este efeito é causado por dois motivos, a indexação da economia e/ou a falta de credibilidade da autoridade monetária. Em seguida verifica-se que as surpresas inflacionárias também tem efeito sobre o premio de risco de inflação o que indica falta de credibilidade do banco central.

Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a Post Keynesian economy

This paper examines the compatibility of inflation targeting with an economy that is Post Keynesian in character. We show that in a Post Keynesian environment, policymakers can both set and achieve an inflation target without adverse consequences for the real economy, as long as an appropriate policy mix is chosen. The latitude that policymakers have in making this choice is investigated. One of our key results is that orthodox policy regimes do not provide appropriate policy mixes. Indeed, the more orthodox the policy regime becomes, the less viable is inflation targeting in a Post Keynesian economy.

Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies` Sacrifice Ratios

Using data from OECD economies, we show that inflation targeters suffered smaller output losses during disinflations when compared to nontargeters. We also study why some countries choose to inflation target while others do not and find that higher average inflation and smaller debt levels render the adoption of the regime more likely. Applying Heckman`s procedure to control for selection bias does not alter the link between inflation targeting and less costly disinflations.

Who chooses to inflation target?

In this article, we seek what are the factors behind a country`s decision to move to Inflation Targeting. We find that high past inflation, low debt levels and the absence of a nominal exchange rate anchor increase the probability that a country will end up opting for it. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Political conditions for successful inflation stabilization: comparing Brazil and Argentina

This study tries to understand how Brazil and Argentina, two countries with chronically high inflation, achieved permanent stabilization by looking at political factors necessary for stabilization. It suggests that, although state autonomy or political unity may contribute to successful price stabilization, reconciling the interests of different stakeholders and thereby building a broad political support base is more essential for stabilization to succeed. Political skills of the leaders and compensatory policies may help raise such support and they are more crucial where other political conditions are less favorable. Also, rapid improvement in the economy is important for sustained political support, and thus, for successful stabilization.

Surprises of the transformer as a coupled oscillator system

We study a system of two RLC oscillators coupled through a variable mutual inductance. The system is interesting because it exhibits some peculiar features of coupled oscillators: (i) there are two natural frequencies; (ii) in general, the resonant frequencies do not coincide with the natural frequencies; (iii) the resonant frequencies of both oscillators differ; (iv) for certain choices of parameters, there is only one resonant frequency, instead of the two expected.

Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods, every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of ten percent instead of zero inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to one percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different preferences, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Rebalancing frequency and the welfare cost of inflation

Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different references, to different compositions of income in bonds or money, and to the introduction of capital and labor.

Microstructural changes befor macroeconomic announcements: Predictability of economic surprises in the U.S. market

Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Influence of balloon pressure inflation in patients undergoing primary coronary stent implantation during acute myocardial infarction: a quantitative coronary angiography analysis

OBJECTIVE:To verify the influence of moderate- or high-pressure balloon inflation during primary coronary stent implantation for acute myocardial infarction. METHODS: After successful coronary stent implantation, 82 patients were divided into 2 groups according to the last balloon inflation pressure: group 1 (³12 to <16 atm) and group 2 (³16 to 20 atm), each with 41 cases. All patients underwent late coronary angiography. RESULTS: In group 1, the mean stent deployment pressure was 13.58±0.92 atm, and in the group 2 it was 18.15±1.66 atm. Stents implanted with moderate pressures (³12 to <16 atm) had a significantly smaller postprocedural minimal lumen diameter, compared to with those with higher pressure, with lesser acute gain (2.7± 0.4 mm vs 2.9±04 mm; p=0.004), but the late lumen loss (0,9±0,8 mm vs 0,9±0,6 mm) and the restenosis (22% vs. 17.1%) and target-vessel revascularization rates (9.8% vs 7.3%) were similar between the groups. CONCLUSION: During AMI stenting, the use of high pressures (³16 atm) did not cause a measurable improvement in late outcome, either in the late loss, its index, and the net gain, or in clinical and angiographic restenosis rates.