A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Continuation of limit cycles near saddle homoclinic points using splines in phase space

We present a new algorithm for continuation of limit cycles of autonomous systems as a system parameter is varied. The algorithm works in phase space with an ordered set of points on the limit cycle, along with spline interpolation. Currently popular algorithms in bifurcation analysis packages compute time-domain approximations of limit cycles using either shooting or collocation. The present approach seems useful for continuation near saddle homoclinic points, where it encounters a corner while time-domain methods essentially encounter a discontinuity (a relatively short period of rapid variation). Other phase space-based algorithms use rescaled arclength in place of time, but subsequently resemble the time-domain methods. Compared to these, we introduce additional freedom through a variable stretching of arclength based on local curvature, through the use of an auxiliary index-based variable. Several numerical examples are presented. Comparisons with results from the popular package, MATCONT, are favorable close to saddle homoclinic points.

Semi-Classical Mechanics in Phase Space: A Study of Wigner's Function

We explore the semi-classical structure of the Wigner functions ($\Psi $(q, p)) representing bound energy eigenstates $|\psi \rangle $ for systems with f degrees of freedom. If the classical motion is integrable, the classical limit of $\Psi $ is a delta function on the f-dimensional torus to which classical trajectories corresponding to ($|\psi \rangle $) are confined in the 2f-dimensional phase space. In the semi-classical limit of ($\Psi $ ($\hslash $) small but not zero) the delta function softens to a peak of order ($\hslash ^{-\frac{2}{3}f}$) and the torus develops fringes of a characteristic 'Airy' form. Away from the torus, $\Psi $ can have semi-classical singularities that are not delta functions; these are discussed (in full detail when f = 1) using Thom's theory of catastrophes. Brief consideration is given to problems raised when ($\Psi $) is calculated in a representation based on operators derived from angle coordinates and their conjugate momenta. When the classical motion is non-integrable, the phase space is not filled with tori and existing semi-classical methods fail. We conjecture that (a) For a given value of non-integrability parameter ($\epsilon $), the system passes through three semi-classical regimes as ($\hslash $) diminishes. (b) For states ($|\psi \rangle $) associated with regions in phase space filled with irregular trajectories, ($\Psi $) will be a random function confined near that region of the 'energy shell' explored by these trajectories (this region has more than f dimensions). (c) For ($\epsilon \neq $0, $\hslash $) blurs the infinitely fine classical path structure, in contrast to the integrable case ($\epsilon $ = 0, where $\hslash $ )imposes oscillatory quantum detail on a smooth classical path structure.

A lower bound to the survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution for Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics in phase space

We derive a very general expression of the survival probability and the first passage time distribution for a particle executing Brownian motion in full phase space with an absorbing boundary condition at a point in the position space, which is valid irrespective of the statistical nature of the dynamics. The expression, together with the Jensen's inequality, naturally leads to a lower bound to the actual survival probability and an approximate first passage time distribution. These are expressed in terms of the position-position, velocity-velocity, and position-velocity variances. Knowledge of these variances enables one to compute a lower bound to the survival probability and consequently the first passage distribution function. As examples, we compute these for a Gaussian Markovian process and, in the case of non-Markovian process, with an exponentially decaying friction kernel and also with a power law friction kernel. Our analysis shows that the survival probability decays exponentially at the long time irrespective of the nature of the dynamics with an exponent equal to the transition state rate constant.

Electron-Paramagnetic-Res study of LiKSO4 in phase IV below -138 degrees C

A detailed single-crystal EPR study of phase IV of lithium potassium sulphate below -138 degrees C has been carried out using NH3+, which substitutes for K+, as the paramagnetic probe. The spin-Hamiltonian parameters have been evaluated at -140 degrees C and yield an isotropic g=2.0034; (AH)XX=(AH)YY=25.3 G and (AH)ZZ=23.8 G; (AN)XX=8.1 G, (AN)YY=21.2 G and (AN)ZZ=25.9 G. In this phase there are 12 magnetically inequivalent K+ sites and their occurrence is ascribed to the loss of a c glide.

Dimple and nose coalescences in phase-separation processes

Coalescence processes are investigated during phase separation in a density-matched liquid mixture (partially deuterated cyclohexane and methanol) under near-critical conditions. As a result of the interplay between capillary and lubrication forces, ''nose'' coalescence appears to be always associated with the slow growth of isolated droplets (exponent almost-equal-to 1/3), whereas ''dimple'' coalescence corresponds to the fast growth of interconnected droplets (exponent almost-equal-to 1). At each stage of growth, the distribution of droplets trapped during dimple coalescence is reminiscent of all of the previous coalescence events.

Correspondence between neutron depolarization and higher order magnetic susceptibility to investigate ferromagnetic clusters in phase separated systems

It is a tough task to distinguish a short-range ferromagnetically correlated cluster-glass phase from a canonical spin-glass-like phase in many magnetic oxide systems using conventional magnetometry measurements. As a case study, we investigate the magnetic ground state of La0.85Sr0.15CoO3, which is often debated based on phase separation issues. We report the results of two samples of La0.85Sr0.15CoO3 (S-1 and S-2) prepared under different conditions. Neutron depolarization, higher harmonic ac susceptibility and magnetic relaxation studies were carried out along with conventional magnetometry measurements to differentiate subtle changes at the microscopic level. There is no evidence of ferromagnetic correlation in the sample S-2 attributed to a spin-glass phase, and this is compounded by the lack of existence of a second order component of higher harmonic ac susceptibility and neutron depolarization. A magnetic relaxation experiment at different temperatures complements the spin glass characteristic in S-2. All these signal a sharp variance when we consider the cluster-glass-like phase (phase separated) in S-1, especially when prepared from an improper chemical synthesis process. This shows that the nonlinear ac susceptibility is a viable tool to detect ferromagnetic clusters such as those the neutron depolarization study can reveal.

Targeting the dopamine receptor in schizophrenia: investigational drugs in Phase III trials

Introduction: Antipsychotic drugs date back to the 1950s and chlorpromazine. Soon after, it was established that blockade of dopamine and, in particular, the D-2 receptor was central to this effect. Dopamine continues to represent a critical line of investigation, although much of the work now focuses on its potential in other symptom domains. Areas covered: A search was carried out for investigational drugs using the key words `dopamine', `schizophrenia' and `Phase III' in an American clinical trial registry (clinicaltrials.gov), published articles using the National Library of Medicine's PubMed database, and supplemented results with a manual search of cross-references and conference abstracts. Drugs were excluded that were already FDA approved. Expert opinion: There remains interest, albeit diminished, in developing better antipsychotic compounds. The greatest enthusiasm currently centres on dopamine's role in negative and cognitive symptom domains. With theories conceptualising hypodopaminergic activity as underlying these deficits, considerable effort is focused on drug strategies that will enhance dopamine activity. Finally, a small body of research is investigating dopaminergic compounds vis-a-vis side-effect treatments. In domains beyond psychosis, however, dopamine arguably is not seen as so central, reflected in considerable research following other lines of investigation.

Goldstone modes and bifurcations in phase-separated binary condensates at finite temperature

We show that the third Goldstone mode, which emerges in binary condensates at phase separation, persists to higher interspecies interaction for density profiles where one component is surrounded on both sides by the other component. This is not the case with symmetry-broken density profiles where one species is entirely to the left and the other is entirely to the right. We, then, use Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov theory with Popov approximation to examine the mode evolution at T not equal 0 and demonstrate the existence of mode bifurcation near the critical temperature. The Kohn mode, however, exhibits deviation from the natural frequency at finite temperatures after the phase separation. This is due to the exclusion of the noncondensate atoms in the dynamics.

Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8% surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications. (C) 2015 Author(s).