Hydrologic models for emergency decision support using Bayesian networks

In the presence of a river flood, operators in charge of control must take decisions based on imperfect and incomplete sources of information (e.g., data provided by a limited number sensors) and partial knowledge about the structure and behavior of the river basin. This is a case of reasoning about a complex dynamic system with uncertainty and real-time constraints where bayesian networks can be used to provide an effective support. In this paper we describe a solution with spatio-temporal bayesian networks to be used in a context of emergencies produced by river floods. In the paper we describe first a set of types of causal relations for hydrologic processes with spatial and temporal references to represent the dynamics of the river basin. Then we describe how this was included in a computer system called SAIDA to provide assistance to operators in charge of control in a river basin. Finally the paper shows experimental results about the performance of the model.

Fox River Watershed investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River, Phase II : hydrologic models and water quality simulation models, part 2 : Blackberry and Poplar Creek HSPF models, calibration and initial simulation results /

"June 2007."

Fox River Watershed investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River, phase II : hydrologic and water quality simulation models, part 1, methodology and procedure for development of HSPF models /

"May 2007"--T.p.

Fox River Watershed Investigation : Stratton Dam to the Illinois River : Phase II : Blackberry Creek and Poplar Creek hydrologic and water quality simulation models : executive summary.

"June 2007."

Georeferenced database generation with the purpose of hydrologic molding in reservoirs of the hydrographic basin of Jaguaribe river in the state of Ceará, Brazil

The edafoclimatic conditions of the Brazilian semiarid region favor the water loss by surface runoff. The state of Ceará, almost completely covered by semiarid, has developed public policies for the construction of dams in order to attend the varied water demand. Several hydrological models were developed to support decisive processes in the complex management of reservoirs. This study aimed to establish a methodology for obtaining a georeferenced database suitable for use as input data in hydrological modeling in the semiarid of Ceará. It was used images of Landsat satellite and SRTM Mission, and soil maps of the state of Ceará. The Landsat images allowed the determination of the land cover and the SRTM Mission images, the automatic delineation of hydrographic basins. The soil type was obtained through the soil map. The database was obtained for Jaguaribe River hydrographic basin, in the state of Ceará, and is applicable to hydrological modeling based on the Curve Number method for estimating the surface runoff.

Hydraulic and fluvial geomorphological models for a bedrock channel reach of the Twenty Mile Creek /

Bedrock channels have been considered challenging geomorphic settings for the application of numerical models. Bedrock fluvial systems exhibit boundaries that are typically less mobile than alluvial systems, yet they are still dynamic systems with a high degree of spatial and temporal variability. To understand the variability of fluvial systems, numerical models have been developed to quantify flow magnitudes and patterns as the driving force for geomorphic change. Two types of numerical model were assessed for their efficacy in examining the bedrock channel system consisting of a high gradient portion of the Twenty Mile Creek in the Niagara Region of Ontario, Canada. A one-dimensional (1-D) flow model that utilizes energy equations, HEC RAS, was used to determine velocity distributions through the study reach for the mean annual flood (MAF), the 100-year return flood and the 1,000-year return flood. A two-dimensional (2-D) flow model that makes use of Navier-Stokes equations, RMA2, was created with the same objectives. The 2-D modeling effort was not successful due to the spatial complexity of the system (high slope and high variance). The successful 1 -D model runs were further extended using very high resolution geospatial interpolations inherent to the HEC RAS extension, HEC geoRAS. The modeled velocity data then formed the basis for the creation of a geomorphological analysis that focused upon large particles (boulders) and the forces needed to mobilize them. Several existing boulders were examined by collecting detailed measurements to derive three-dimensional physical models for the application of fluid and solid mechanics to predict movement in the study reach. An imaginary unit cuboid (1 metre by 1 metre by 1 metre) boulder was also envisioned to determine the general propensity for the movement of such a boulder through the bedrock system. The efforts and findings of this study provide a standardized means for the assessment of large particle movement in a bedrock fluvial system. Further efforts may expand upon this standardization by modeling differing boulder configurations (platy boulders, etc.) at a high level of resolution.

RWater – A Cyber Enabled Tool For Hydrologic Modeling And Analysis

Existing distributed hydrologic models are complex and computationally demanding for using as a rapid-forecasting policy-decision tool, or even as a class-room educational tool. In addition, platform dependence, specific input/output data structures and non-dynamic data-interaction with pluggable software components inside the existing proprietary frameworks make these models restrictive only to the specialized user groups. RWater is a web-based hydrologic analysis and modeling framework that utilizes the commonly used R software within the HUBzero cyber infrastructure of Purdue University. RWater is designed as an integrated framework for distributed hydrologic simulation, along with subsequent parameter optimization and visualization schemes. RWater provides platform independent web-based interface, flexible data integration capacity, grid-based simulations, and user-extensibility. RWater uses RStudio to simulate hydrologic processes on raster based data obtained through conventional GIS pre-processing. The program integrates Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) algorithm for parameter optimization. Moreover, RWater enables users to produce different descriptive statistics and visualization of the outputs at different temporal resolutions. The applicability of RWater will be demonstrated by application on two watersheds in Indiana for multiple rainfall events.

Hydrologic monitoring of an integrated low impact development (LID) underdrained stormwater management system

In 2005, Wetland Studies and Solutions, Inc. (WSSI) installed an extensive Low Impact Development (LID) stormwater management system on their new office site in Gainesville, Virginia. The 4-acre site is serviced by a network of LID components: permeable pavements (two proprietary and one gravel type), bioretention cell / rain garden, green roof, vegetated swale, rainwater harvesting and drip irrigation, and slow-release underground detention. The site consists of heavy clay soils, and the LID components are mostly integrated by a series of underdrain pipes. A comprehensive monitoring system has been designed and installed to measure hydrologic performance throughout the LID, underdrained network. The monitoring system measures flows into and out of each LID component independently while concurrently monitoring rainfall events. A sensitivity analysis and laboratory calibration has been performed on the flow measurement system. Field data has been evaluated to determine the hydrologic performance of the LID features. Finally, hydrologic models amenable to compact, underdrained LID sites have been reviewed and recommended for future modeling and design.

Testing of crop Models for Accurate Predictions of Evapotranspiration and crop Water Use

All crop models, whether site-specific or global-gridded and regardless of crop, simulate daily crop transpiration and soil evaporation during the crop life cycle, resulting in seasonal crop water use. Modelers use several methods for predicting daily potential evapotranspiration (ET), including FAO-56, Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, full energy balance, and transpiration water efficiency. They use extinction equations to partition energy to soil evaporation or transpiration, depending on leaf area index. Most models simulate soil water balance and soil-root water supply for transpiration, and limit transpiration if water uptake is insufficient, and thereafter reduce dry matter production. Comparisons among multiple crop and global gridded models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) show surprisingly large differences in simulated ET and crop water use for the same climatic conditions. Model intercomparisons alone are not enough to know which approaches are correct. There is an urgent need to test these models against field-observed data on ET and crop water use. It is important to test various ET modules/equations in a model platform where other aspects such as soil water balance and rooting are held constant, to avoid compensation caused by other parts of models. The CSM-CROPGRO model in DSSAT already has ET equations for Priestley-Taylor, Penman-FAO-24, Penman-Monteith-FAO-56, and an hourly energy balance approach. In this work, we added transpiration-efficiency modules to DSSAT and AgMaize models and tested the various ET equations against available data on ET, soil water balance, and season-long crop water use of soybean, fababean, maize, and other crops where runoff and deep percolation were known or zero. The different ET modules created considerable differences in predicted ET, growth, and yield.

Hydrologic simulation on solid waste disposal sites (HSSWDS) /

"SW-868"--Cover.

HYMO : problem-oriented computer language for hydrologic modeling : users manual /

Bibliography: p. 53.

Application of digital mapping technology to the display of hydrologic information : a proof-of-concept test in the Fox-Wolf River Basin, Wisconsin /

Mode of access: Internet.

Hydrologic and hydraulic modeling and analyses for the Cache River for the purposes of evaluating current conditions and alternative restoration measures.

Prepared for the Cache River Joint Venture Partnership (JVP): Illinois Department of Natural Resources, The Nature Conservancy, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited, Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Technical memorandum on hydrologic hydraulic and benefits analysis for the Elmhurst Quarry Flood Control Facility Design.

Caption title.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.