Accidental tetanus: prognosis evaluation in a historical series at a hospital in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil

A total of 868 (84.89%) patients diagnosed with tetanus were studied, out of the 1,024 tetanus patients hospitalized at Couto Maia Hospital (Salvador, Bahia, Brazil), during the period between 1986 and 1997. Of this group (n = 868), 63.5% (n = 551) were discharged, 35.4% (n = 307) died, and 1.1% (n = 10) were transferred. The average age of the deceased patients (38.73 ± 23.31 years) was significantly greater (p < 0.0001) than the age of those who survived (29.21 ± 20.05 years). Analyzing the variables of the logistic regression model with statistic significance (p £ 0.25) for univariate analysis, we observed a greater association of risk for worst prognosis (death) in patients aged ³ 51 years; time of illness < 48 hours; time of incubation < 168 hours; neck rigidity; spasms; opisthotonos; body temperature ³ 37.7 ºC; heart beat ³ 111 beats/minute; sympathetic hyperactivity and association with pneumonia. Among the group of those who survived, patients with 1 to 5 of those variables (n = 398; 76.8%) were more frequent, while among patients of the group of the deceased, 70.3% (n = 206) presented 6 to 10 of those variables, with a highly significant difference (p < 10-8). In conclusion, the indicators described provide early information that may guide the prognosis and medical and nurse care.

HISTORICAL SERIES OF PATIENTS WITH VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS TREATED WITH MEGLUMINE ANTIMONIATE IN A HOSPITAL FOR TROPICAL DISEASES, MACEIÓ-AL, BRAZIL

Introduction: Visceral leishmaniasis is an endemic protozoan found in Brazil. It is characterized by fever, pallor, hepatosplenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, and progressive weakness in the patient. It may lead to death if untreated. The drug of choice for treatment is meglumine antimoniate (Glucantime®). The aim of this study was to evaluate patients with visceral leishmaniasis according to criteria used for diagnosis, possible reactions to Glucantime® and blood pressure measured before and after treatment. Methods: 89 patients admitted to the Teaching Hospital Dr. Hélvio Auto (HEHA) in Maceió-AL, in the period from May 2006 to December 2009 were evaluated. Data were collected on age, sex, origin, method of diagnosis, adverse effects of drugs, duration of hospitalization, duration of treatment and dosage up to the onset of adverse effects. Results: There was a predominance of child male patients, aged between one and five years old, from the interior of the State of Alagoas. Parasitological diagnosis was made by bone marrow aspirate; three (3.37%) patients died, 12 (13.48%) had adverse reactions and treatment was changed to amphotericin B, and 74 (83.14%) were cured. Changes that led to replacing Glucantime® were persistent fever, jaundice, rash, bleeding and cyanosis. Conclusion: During the study, 89 patients hospitalized for VL were analyzed: 74 were healed, 12 were replaced by amphotericin B treatment and three died. Most of them were under five years old, male and came from the interior. The dosage and duration of treatment with Glucantime® were consistent with that advocated by the Ministry of Health. Persistence of fever, jaundice, rash, cyanosis and bleeding were the reactions that led the physician to modify treatment. No change was observed in blood pressure before and after treatment. This study demonstrated the work of a hospital, a reference in the treatment of leishmaniasis, which has many patients demanding its services in this area. It demonstrates that this disease is still important today, and needs to be addressed properly to prevent injury and death due to the disease.

Historical series.

No more published.

A guide to collecting, describing, and summarizing price data, with particular reference to historical series of local market prices.

At head of title: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics.

The Nations of the world. An historical series.

v.1-8. France / M. Guizot and Madame Guizot de Witt. -- v.9-12. England / J.R. Green. -- v.13-15. United States, from the landing of Columbus to the signing of the peace protocol with Spain / Julian Hawthorne. -- v.16-17. Russia / Alfred Rambaud. -- v. 18-19. Mexico and the life of the conqueror Fernando Cortes / W.H. Prescott. -- v.20-21. Peru / W.H. Prescott. -- v. 22. Spain and her colonies / Archibald Wilberforce. -- v. 23. Germany / S. Baring-Gould. -- v.24. Austria: its rise and present power / J.S.C. Abbott. -- v.25. Italy / J.S.C. Abbott. -- v.26. Turkey / E.L. Clark. -- v.27. Egypt / J.C. McCoan. -- v.28. China / D.C. Boulger. -- v.29. Japan / Walter Dickson. -- v.30. Ancient history from the remotest times to the overthrow of the western empire, A.D. 476 / Leonhard Schmitz.

Publications. Historical Series

Mode of access: Internet.

The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

Estudio de la aplicabilidad de las aproximaciones uniformes al análisis de series históricas : aplicación al caso de los precios del cobre

El objetivo de este proyecto de investigación es comparar dos técnicas matemáticas de aproximación polinómica, las aproximaciones según el criterio de mínimos cuadrados y las aproximaciones uniformes (“minimax”). Se describen tanto el mercado actual del cobre, con sus fluctuaciones a lo largo del tiempo, como los distintos modelos matemáticos y programas informáticos disponibles. Como herramienta informática se ha seleccionado Matlab®, cuya biblioteca matemática es muy amplia y de uso muy extendido y cuyo lenguaje de programación es suficientemente potente para desarrollar los programas que se necesiten. Se han obtenido diferentes polinomios de aproximación sobre una muestra (serie histórica) que recoge la variación del precio del cobre en los últimos años. Se ha analizado la serie histórica completa y dos tramos significativos de ella. Los resultados obtenidos incluyen valores de interés para otros proyectos. Abstract The aim of this research project is to compare two mathematical models for estimating polynomial approximation, the approximations according to the criterion of least squares approximations uniform (“Minimax”). Describes both the copper current market, fluctuating over time as different computer programs and mathematical models available. As a modeling tool is selected main Matlab® which math library is the largest and most widely used programming language and which is powerful enough to allow you to develop programs that are needed. We have obtained different approximating polynomials, applying mathematical methods chosen, a sample (historical series) which indicates the fluctuation in copper prices in last years. We analyzed the complete historical series and two significant sections of it. The results include values that we consider relevant to other projects

Historical atlas

Imprint varies: 1911-29, New York, H. Holt.-1956-57, Pikesville, Md., Colonial Offset Co.

Tendências da internação e da mortalidade infantil por diarréia: Brasil, 1995 a 2005

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência das internações e da mortalidade por diarréia em crianças menores de um ano. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico de séries temporais entre 1995 e 2005, para o Brasil e para as capitais dos estados. Foram utilizados dados secundários do Ministério da Saúde, obtidos do Sistema de Informação Hospitalar e do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Durante o período de estudo foram registradas 1.505.800 internações e 39.421 mortes por diarréia de crianças menores de um ano de idade. Para as análises das tendências da taxa de internação e de mortalidade foram utilizados modelos de regressão polinomial. RESULTADOS: Houve redução tanto nas internações por diarréia quanto na mortalidade infantil por diarréia no País e em 13 capitais. Oito capitais tiveram queda somente na mortalidade por diarréia, enquanto três apresentaram decréscimo somente nas taxas de internação por diarréia. Na análise conjunta dos indicadores de diarréia e dos indicadores gerais, observou-se que houve decréscimo em todas as séries históricas somente no Brasil e em quatro capitais. CONCLUSÕES: A redução nas taxas de internações e mortalidade por diarréia observada pelas séries temporais podem ser resultado das medidas de prevenção e controle empregadas

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

THE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE RIO DE JANEIRO STATE, BRAZIL: SEASONALITY AND TREND

The objective of this work was to carry a descriptive analysis in the monthly precipitation of rainfall stations from Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, using data of position and dispersion and graphical analyses, and to verify the presence of seasonality and trend in these data, with a study about the application of models of time series. The descriptive statistics was to characterize the general behavior of the series in three stations selected which present consistent historical series. The methodology of analysis of variance in randomized blocks and the determination of models of multiple linear regression, considering years and months as predictors variables, disclosed the presence of seasonality, what allowed to infer on the occurrence of repetitive natural phenomena throughout the time and absence of trend in the data. It was applied the methodology of multiple linear regression to removal the seasonality of these time series. The original data had been deducted from the estimates made by the adjusted model and the analysis of variance in randomized blocks for the residues of regression was preceded again. With the results obtained it was possible to conclude that the monthly rainfall present seasonality and they don`t present trend, the analysis of multiple regression was efficient in the removal of the seasonality, and the rainfall can be studied by means of time series.

A geografia dos acidentes de trânsito na Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória (RMGV) – ES

Esta dissertação aborda a espacialização dos acidentes de trânsito notificados entre os anos de 2005 e 2013 nos municípios de Fundão, Serra, Vitória, Cariacica, Vila Velha, Viana e Guarapari, que juntos compõem a Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória (RMGV). Para o cumprimento deste propósito, realizou-se um diagnóstico temporal e espacial dos acidentes de trânsito ocorridos nessa região, analisando-se o acelerado crescimento da frota veicular, a situação da atual infraestrutura viária e o crescimento demográfico. Além disso, foram listadas as principais variáveis de risco responsáveis por ocasionar acidentes de trânsito. Quanto à fundamentação teórica, foi construída a partir da Geografia dos Transportes, que forneceu subsídios para contextualizar a importância da análise espacial geográfica sobre o fenômeno aqui tratado. Na sequência, estimaram-se os custos gerados por esse fenômeno, chegando à cifra de mais de R$ 900 milhões de custos associados aos acidentes de trânsito da RMGV em 2013. Utilizando-se de técnicas de geoestatística e de geoprocessamento, identificaram-se as áreas de concentração de acidentes de trânsito na RMGV, conforme as tipologias de colisões e choques, capotamentos e tombamentos e atropelamentos. Logrou-se, como conclusão, que 1) além do crescimento em quantidade e concentração das ocorrências, houve também, no decorrer da série histórica, o espraiamento dos registros de acidentes de trânsito na RMGV, e 2) os acidentes, conforme sua tipologia, concentram-se em diferentes áreas da região estudada.

Demographic profile and health conditions of the elderly in a community in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

Some specific characteristics of the aging of the Brazilian population in different areas, states and communities all over the country, have shown significant variations. Historical series of demographic and health indicators for the population in their sixties and over in Brazil, state of S. Paulo and in the municipal district of Araraquara are listed as follows: level of education and urban population growth rate, income distribution, mortality rates and main causes of death. In 1991 the aged constituled were 7,8% of the Brazilian population and 9,7% in Araraquara community. The elderly population (of 70 years of aged and above) as a proportion of the whole, has increased and already stands for 40%. The same trend holds good for both the proportion of aged within the urban population and their level of education wich increased to 90% in 1991. The main causes of death are chronic degenerative diseases which have replaced the infectious illness: firts, the diseases of the circulatory sistem (which account for more than 40% of all deaths) and the neoplasms (which let to 15% of the deaths). On the basis of these health and demographic data relating to people of 60 years of age and over, this study suggests some procedures for the improvement of the quality of the assistance given to the target population: a) the assistance give to the aged should be improved by providing gerontological training for general physicians and nurses, both of public and private clinics; b) the already exixting educational activities for the aged, for health workers and for teachers of secundary education should be further developed; c) the number of day-hospitals should be increased for the purpose of avoiding unnecessary confinement so as maintain the low rate of institutionalization in homes for the elderly (0,7% in Araraquara). It is reported that at least 35% of the aged population in this area is entitled to private health assistance, wich brings out the importance of including such services in the local health programs for this group.

Dengue: clinical forms and risk groups in a high incidence city in the southeastern region of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The article describes the epidemiologic profile of dengue cases in Vitória, the capital of Espírito Santo, Brazil, from 2000 to 2009, aimed at identifying risk groups regarding the incidence and severity of the disease. METHODS: Confirmed cases of dengue among city residents during ten years were classified as dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome and dengue with complications, and analyzed according to sex, age, race-color and education. RESULTS: The proportion of dengue cases was highest among women aged 20 to 29 years-old and similar between whites and blacks. A gradual decrease occurred in the percentage of dengue cases in the population aged 15 years-old or more, in the historical series of 10 years, and a growing increase in individuals less than 15 years-old, showing statistical significance. The fatality rate ranged from zero to 0.3% for all forms of dengue and from 0.2% to 18.2% for severe forms. CONCLUSIONS: The profile of those affected by the disease in the municipality is similar to those affected in Brazil. The increasing number of cases in individuals under 15 years-old corroborates the results of recent studies in other Brazilian municipalities.