A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .

Dynamic Modelling of Circulating Fluidized Bed Plant with Gas Turbine Repowering

Increasing amount of renewable energy source based electricity production has set high load control requirements for power grid balance markets. The essential grid balance between electricity consumption and generation is currently hard to achieve economically with new-generation solutions. Therefore conventional combustion power generation will be examined in this thesis as a solution to the foregoing issue. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology is known to have sufficient scale to acts as a large grid balancing unit. Although the load change rate of the CFB unit is known to be moderately high, supplementary repowering solution will be evaluated in this thesis for load change maximization. The repowering heat duty is delivered to the CFB feed water preheating section by smaller gas turbine (GT) unit. Consequently, steam extraction preheating may be decreased and large amount of the gas turbine exhaust heat may be utilized in the CFB process to reach maximum plant electrical efficiency. Earlier study of the repowering has focused on the efficiency improvements and retrofitting to maximize plant electrical output. This study however presents the CFB load change improvement possibilities achieved with supplementary GT heat. The repowering study is prefaced with literature and theory review for both of the processes to maximize accuracy of the research. Both dynamic and steady-state simulations accomplished with APROS simulation tool will be used to evaluate repowering effects to the CFB unit operation. Eventually, a conceptual level analysis is completed to compare repowered plant performance to the state-of-the-art CFB performance. Based on the performed simulations, considerably good improvements to the CFB process parameters are achieved with repowering. Consequently, the results show possibilities to higher ramp rate values achieved with repowered CFB technology. This enables better plant suitability to the grid balance markets.

A simplified heat pump model for use in solar plus heat pump system simulation studies

Solar plus heat pump systems are often very complex in design, with sometimes special heat pump arrangements and control. Therefore detailed heat pump models can give very slow system simulations and still not so accurate results compared to real heat pump performance in a system. The idea here is to start from a standard measured performance map of test points for a heat pump according to EN 14825 and then determine characteristic parameters for a simplified correlation based model of the heat pump. By plotting heat pump test data in different ways including power input and output form and not only as COP, a simplified relation could be seen. By using the same methodology as in the EN 12975 QDT part in the collector test standard it could be shown that a very simple model could describe the heat pump test data very accurately, by identifying 4 parameters in the correlation equation found. © 2012 The Authors.

Neural Network-Based Approach for Identification of the Harmonic Content of a Nonlinear Load in a Single-Phase System

In this paper an alternative method based on artificial neural networks is presented to determine harmonic components in the load current of a single-phase electric power system with nonlinear loads, whose parameters can vary so much in reason of the loads characteristic behaviors as because of the human intervention. The first six components in the load current are determined using the information contained in the time-varying waveforms. The effectiveness of this method is verified by using it in a single-phase active power filter with selective compensation of the current drained by an AC controller. The proposed method is compared with the fast Fourier transform.

Pumps in the power plant ...

Mode of access: Internet.

A method for heat rejection from space power plants,

Mode of access: Internet.

A study in the application of domestic solar assisted heat pumps for heating and cooling

In the present work, the more important parameters of the heat pump system and of solar assisted heat pump systems were analysed in a quantitative way. Ideal and real Rankine cycles applied to the heat pump, with and without subcooling and superheating were studied using practical recommended values for their thermodynamics parameters. Comparative characteristics of refrigerants here analysed looking for their applicability in heat pumps for domestic heating and their effect in the performance of the system. Curves for the variation of the coefficient of performance as a function of condensing and evaporating temperatures were prepared for R12. Air, water and earth as low-grade heat sources and basic heat pump design factors for integrated heat pumps and thermal stores and for solar assisted heat pump-series, parallel and dual-systems were studied. The analysis of the relative performance of these systems demonstrated that the dual system presents advantages in domestic applications. An account of energy requirements for space and hater heating in the domestic sector in the O.K. is presented. The expected primary energy savings by using heat pumps to provide for the heating demand of the domestic sector was found to be of the order of 7%. The availability of solar energy in the U.K. climatic conditions and the characteristics of the solar radiation here studied. Tables and graphical representations in order to calculate the incident solar radiation over a tilted roof were prepared and are given in this study in section IV. In order to analyse and calculate the heating load for the system, new mathematical and graphical relations were developed in section V. A domestic space and water heating system is described and studied. It comprises three main components: a solar radiation absorber, the normal roof of a house, a split heat pump and a thermal store. A mathematical study of the heat exchange characteristics in the roof structure was done. This permits to evaluate the energy collected by the roof acting as a radiation absorber and its efficiency. An indication of the relative contributions from the three low-grade sources: ambient air, solar boost and heat loss from the house to the roof space during operation is given in section VI, together with the average seasonal performance and the energy saving for a prototype system tested at the University of Aston. The seasonal performance as found to be 2.6 and the energy savings by using the system studied 61%. A new store configuration to reduce wasted heat losses is also discussed in section VI.

HVDC Power Transmission Simulation for Offshore Wind System with Three-Level Converter

An integrated mathematical model for the simulation of an offshore wind system performance is presented in this paper. The mathematical model considers an offshore variable-speed turbine in deep water equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator using multiple point full-power clamped three-level converter, converting the energy of a variable frequency source in injected energy into the electric network with constant frequency, through a HVDC transmission submarine cable. The mathematical model for the drive train is a concentrate two mass model which incorporates the dynamic for the blades of the wind turbine, tower and generator due to the need to emulate the effects of the wind and the floating motion. Controller strategy considered is a proportional integral one. Also, pulse width modulation using space vector modulation supplemented with sliding mode is used for trigger the transistors of the converter. Finally, a case study is presented to access the system performance.

Simulation of a-Si PV system grid connected by boost and inverter

This paper is about a PV system connected to the electric grid by power electronic converters, using classical PI controller. The modelling for the converters emulates the association of a DC-DC boost with a two-level power inverter (TwLI) or three-level power inverter (ThLI) in order to follow the performance of a testing experimental system. Pulse width modulation (PWMo) by sliding mode control (SMCo) associated with space vector modulation (SVMo) is applied to the boost and the inverter. The PV system is described by the five parameters equivalent circuit. Parameter identification and simulation studies are performed for comparison with the testing experimental system.

Analysis of energy efficiency of gas driven heat pumps

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2011

Simulation of thermal performance of horizontal slinky-loop heat exchangers for ground source heat pumps

This paper presents results obtained from a numerical simulation for the horizontal slinky-loop heat exchanger of a ground-source heat pump system. A three-dimensional numerical model was developed and the results of the thermal performance of various heat exchanger configurations are presented. The investigation was carried out on five types of loop pitch (loop spacing), three types of loop diameter, three values of soil thermal properties, and allowing continuous and intermittent operation. Comparison was made for the heat transfer rate, the amount of pipe material needed, as well as excavation work required for the horizontal slinky-loop heat exchanger. The results indicate that system parameters have a significant effect on the thermal performance of the system

Six-Day System Test and Component test and System Simulation for Combitanks with Internal heat Exchangers

An international standard, ISO/DP 9459-4 has been proposed to establish a uniform standard of quality for small, factory-made solar heating systerns. In this proposal, system components are tested separatelyand total system performance is calculated using system simulations based on component model parameter values validated using the results from the component tests. Another approach is to test the whole system in operation under representative conditions, where the results can be used as a measure of the general system performance. The advantage of system testing of this form is that it is not dependent on simulations and the possible inaccuracies of the models. Its disadvantage is that it is restricted to the boundary conditions for the test. Component testing and system simulation is flexible, but requires an accurate and reliable simulation model.The heat store is a key component conceming system performance. Thus, this work focuses on the storage system consisting store, electrical auxiliary heater, heat exchangers and tempering valve. Four different storage system configurations with a volume of 750 litre were tested in an indoor system test using a six -day test sequence. A store component test and system simulation was carried out on one of the four configurations, applying the proposed standard for stores, ISO/DP 9459-4A. Three newly developed test sequences for intemalload side heat exchangers, not in the proposed ISO standard, were also carried out. The MULTIPORT store model was used for this work. This paper discusses the results of the indoor system test, the store component test, the validation of the store model parameter values and the system simulations.

Computational simulations of latent heat thermal energy storage systems - with innovative and first-principles based simulation for the underlying unsteady melting (and solidification) processes

This thesis develops an effective modeling and simulation procedure for a specific thermal energy storage system commonly used and recommended for various applications (such as an auxiliary energy storage system for solar heating based Rankine cycle power plant). This thermal energy storage system transfers heat from a hot fluid (termed as heat transfer fluid - HTF) flowing in a tube to the surrounding phase change material (PCM). Through unsteady melting or freezing process, the PCM absorbs or releases thermal energy in the form of latent heat. Both scientific and engineering information is obtained by the proposed first-principle based modeling and simulation procedure. On the scientific side, the approach accurately tracks the moving melt-front (modeled as a sharp liquid-solid interface) and provides all necessary information about the time-varying heat-flow rates, temperature profiles, stored thermal energy, etc. On the engineering side, the proposed approach is unique in its ability to accurately solve – both individually and collectively – all the conjugate unsteady heat transfer problems for each of the components of the thermal storage system. This yields critical system level information on the various time-varying effectiveness and efficiency parameters for the thermal storage system.