Baltic Sea : security tomorrow - three future scenarios

Aineisto on Keskustakampuksen kirjaston digitoimaa ja kirjasto vastaa aineiston käyttöluvista.

Rural community in the Mediterranean Region in 2030 : projections and future scenarios : climate change and social change. ' Comunidades rurales en 2030 : proyecciones y escenarios futuros : cambio climático y cambio social.

Resumen en español

Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios

Wine production is strongly affected by weather and climate and thus highly vulnerable to climate change. In Portugal, viticulture and wine production are an important economic activity. In the present study, current bioclimatic zoning in Portugal (1950–2000) and its projected changes under future climate conditions (2041–2070) are assessed through the analysis of an aggregated, categorized bioclimatic index (CatI) at a very high spatial resolution (near 1 km). CatI incorporates the most relevant bioclimatic characteristics of a given region, thus allowing the direct comparison between different regions. Future viticultural zoning is achieved using data from 13 climate model transient experiments following the A1B emission scenario. These data are downscaled using a two-step method of spatial pattern downscaling. This downscaling approach allows characterizing mesoclimatic influences on viticulture throughout Portugal. Results for the recent past depict the current spatial variability of Portuguese viticultural regions. Under future climate conditions, the current viticultural zoning is projected to undergo significant changes, which may represent important challenges for the Portuguese winemaking sector. The changes are quite robust across the different climate models. A lower bioclimatic diversity is also projected, resulting from a more homogeneous warm and dry climate in most of the wine regions. This will lead to changes in varietal suitability and wine characteristics of each region.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

The Panama Canal turns 100: history and possible future scenarios

This issue of the FAL Bulletin sets out a brief history of the Panama Canal, its construction and its social and political impact on Panama, within the context of international trade at the time. This issue also reviews the recovery of the canal by the Republic of Panama and subsequent major events, including the decision to expand the canal and the start-up of work on the expansion project.

Migration and asylum: The movement of people in the Mediterranean Region - Future scenarios and the EU response. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper No. 11/2014

Introduction. In recent years, the global discussion on migration and asylum has evolved from polarization of perspectives and mistrust, to improving partnerships and fostering cooperation between countries and regions. The paradigm has shifted from control and security exclusively to an increased awareness of the ramifications of migration in development and labour markets, the increasing demographic gap1 and the dangers of exclusion faced by migrant workers (regular or irregular). Eastern Europe will suffer the biggest population decline in the coming years, and Nigeria’s population will reach one billion by 2100. In Europe, the work replacement ratio will be two pensioners for one active worker. It has become clear that these facts cannot be ignored and that there is a need for greater convergence of policies (migration/mobility, fundamental rights, and economic growth), with a migrant-centred approach.2. The assumption that Europe will remain a geopolitical and economic hub that attracts immigrants at all skill levels might not hold water in the long run. The evolving demographic and economic changes have made it evident that the competitiveness of the EU (Europe 2020 Strategy) is also at stake, particularly if an adaptable workforce with the necessary skills is not secured in view of shortfalls in skill levels and because of serious labour mismatches. Therefore, it is the right moment to develop more strategic and long-term migration policies that take into account the evolving position of Europe and its neighbours in the world. By the same token, labour market strategies that meet needs and promote integration of regular migrants are still a pending task for the Member States (MS) in terms of the free movement of people, but also in relation with neighbouring and partner countries.

UK business schools : historical contexts and future scenarios:summary report from an EBK/AIM Management Research Forum

This report begins with an analysis of the historical development of management education in Britain since 1945. It provides a context for understanding conflicting themes in current debates about business schools and examines how the different types of business school have evolved in the UK within very different education institutions. It places the current challenges faced by business schools in context, offers guidance on the strategic options available, and discusses some of the practical implications of the different paths outlined.

Simulating everglades national park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. ^ As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. ^ Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.^

Simulating Everglades National Park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.