Conditioning information in mutual fund performance evaluation: Portuguese evidence

We estimate and compare the performance of Portuguese-based mutual funds that invest in the domestic market and in the European market using unconditional and conditional models of performance evaluation. Besides applying both partial and full conditional models, we use European information variables, instead of the most common local ones, and consider stochastically detrended conditional variables in order to avoid spurious regressions. The results suggest that mutual fund managers are not able to outperform the market, presenting negative or neutral performance. The incorporation of conditioning information in performance evaluation models is supported by our findings, as it improves the explanatory power of the models and there is evidence of both time-varying betas and alphas related to the public information variables. It is also shown that the number of lags to be used in the stochastic detrending procedure is a critical choice, as it will impact the significance of the conditioning information. In addition, we observe a distance effect, since managers who invest locally seem to outperform those who invest in the European market. However, after controlling for public information, this effect is slightly reduced. Furthermore, the results suggest that survivorship bias has a small impact on performance estimates.

Measuring fund performance using multi-factor models: evidence for the Portuguese market

This paper examines the performance of Portuguese equity funds investing in the domestic and in the European Union market, using several unconditional and conditional multi-factor models. In terms of overall performance, we find that National funds are neutral performers, while European Union funds under-perform the market significantly. These results do not seem to be a consequence of management fees. Overall, our findings are supportive of the robustness of conditional multi-factor models. In fact, Portuguese equity funds seem to be relatively more exposed to smallcaps and more value-oriented. Also, they present strong evidence of time-varying betas and, in the case of the European Union funds, of time-varying alphas too. Finally, in terms of market timing, our tests suggest that mutual fund managers in our sample do not exhibit any market timing abilities. Nevertheless, we find some evidence of timevarying conditional market timing abilities but only at the individual fund level.

DISPOSITION EFFECT AMONG BRAZILIAN EQUITY FUND MANAGERS

The disposition effect predicts that investors tend to sell winning stocks too soon and ride losing stocks too long. Despite the wide range of research evidence about this issue, the reasons that lead investors to act this way are still subject to much controversy between rational and behavioral explanations. In this article, the main goal was to test two competing behavioral motivations to justify the disposition effect: prospect theory and mean reversion bias. To achieve it, an analysis of monthly transactions for a sample of 51 Brazilian equity funds from 2002 to 2008 was conducted and regression models with qualitative dependent variables were estimated in order to set the probability of a manager to realize a capital gain or loss as a function of the stock return. The results brought evidence that prospect theory seems to guide the decision-making process of the managers, but the hypothesis that the disposition effect is due to mean reversion bias could not be confirmed.

The effects Ishares IBovespa index fund creation on the liquidity of underlying stocks

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Indexing and active fund management: International evidence

Author's pre-print