Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Model Based Estimating System for Civil Concrete Structures

An earlier CRC-CI project on ‘automatic estimating’ (AE) has shown the key benefit of model-based design methodologies in building design and construction to be the provision of timely quantitative cost evaluations. Furthermore, using AE during design improves design options, and results in improved design turn-around times, better design quality and/or lower costs. However, AEs for civil engineering structures do not exist; and research partners in the CRC-CI expressed interest in exploring the development of such a process. This document reports on these investigations. The central objective of the study was to evaluate the benefits and costs of developing an AE for concrete civil engineering works. By studying existing documents and through interviews with design engineers, contractors and estimators, we have established that current civil engineering practices (mainly roads/bridges) do not use model-based planning/design. Drawings are executed in 2D and only completed at the end of lengthy planning/design project management lifecycle stages. We have also determined that estimating plays two important, but different roles. The first is part of project management (which we have called macro level estimating). Estimating in this domain sets project budgets, controls quality delivery and contains costs. The second role is estimating during planning/design (micro level estimating). The difference between the two roles is that the former is performed at the end of various lifecycle stages, whereas the latter is performed at any suitable time during planning/design.

A feasibility study for model based estimating for concrete bridges.

Designing and estimating civil concrete structures is a complex process which to many practitioners is tied to manual or semi-manual processes of 2D design and cannot be further improved by automated, interacting design-estimating processes. This paper presents a feasibility study for the development an automated estimator for concrete bridge design. The study offers a value proposition: an efficient automated model-based estimator can add value to the whole bridge design-estimating process, i.e., reducing estimation errors, shortening the duration of success estimates, and increasing the benefit of doing cost estimation when compared with the current practice. This is then followed by a description of what is in an efficient automated model-based estimator and how it should be used. Finally the process of model-based estimating is compared with the current practice to highlight the values embedded in the automated processes.

Estimating indoor air quality using integrated 3D CAD building models

The indoor air quality (IAQ) in buildings is currently assessed by measurement of pollutants during building operation for comparison with air quality standards. Current practice at the design stage tries to minimise potential indoor air quality impacts of new building materials and contents by selecting low-emission materials. However low-emission materials are not always available, and even when used the aggregated pollutant concentrations from such materials are generally overlooked. This paper presents an innovative tool for estimating indoor air pollutant concentrations at the design stage, based on emissions over time from large area building materials, furniture and office equipment. The estimator considers volatile organic compounds, formaldehyde and airborne particles from indoor materials and office equipment and the contribution of outdoor urban air pollutants affected by urban location and ventilation system filtration. The estimated pollutants are for a single, fully mixed and ventilated zone in an office building with acceptable levels derived from Australian and international health-based standards. The model acquires its dimensional data for the indoor spaces from a 3D CAD model via IFC files and the emission data from a building products/contents emissions database. This paper describes the underlying approach to estimating indoor air quality and discusses the benefits of such an approach for designers and the occupants of buildings.

Estimating total cross sections from neutron-nucleus collisions using a simple functional form

Total cross sections for neutron scattering from nuclei, with energies ranging from 10 to 600 MeV and from many nuclei spanning the mass range 6Li to 238U, have been analyzed using a simple, three-parameter, functional form. The calculated cross sections are compared with results obtained by using microscopic (g-folding) optical potentials as well as with experimental data. The functional form reproduces those total cross sections very well. When allowance is made for Ramsauer-like effects in the scattering, the parameters of the functional form required vary smoothly with energy and target mass. They too can be represented by functions of energy and mass.

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

Estimating interactive coefficients for analysing interactive failures

Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.