La Hipótesis del Estancamiento Secular: Análisis del Caso Español

Una economía necesita una fuerte inversión para mantener una situación de pleno empleo. La hipótesis del estancamiento secular se plantea cuando una inversión deficiente impide el crecimiento económico. El importante impacto de estos desajustes ha provocado que la hipótesis haya ganado importancia en los últimos años. Summers (2014a) expone una serie de evidencias a su favor en el contexto actual de la economía estadounidense. Tomando su estudio como referencia, en este trabajo se intenta replicar el análisis en la economía española. Este descenso en la propensión a invertir se refleja en un cambio en el equilibrio de la economía y se vincula a la caída del tipo de interés real de equilibrio. Por tanto, se analizará la caída en los tipos de interés reales a partir de una estimación de la tasa de inflación en España. Reuniendo los resultados obtenidos, se extrae una conclusión sobre la hipótesis principal y se aportan y discuten otras teorías alternativas relevantes.

The new Golden Legend: Patrick Nicholas's secular saints

The work of Italian-based photo-artist Patrick Nicholas is analysed to show how his re-workings of classic ‘old-master’ paintings can be seen as the art of ‘redaction,’ shedding new light on the relationship between originality and copying. I argue that redactional creativity is both highly productive of new meanings and a reinvention of the role of the medieval Golden Legend. (Lives of the Saints).

International epidemiology of prostate cancer : geographical distribution and secular trends

This review outlines current international patterns in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates and survival, including recent trends and a discussion of the possible impact of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing on the observed data. Internationally, prostate cancer is the second most common cancer diagnosed among men (behind lung cancer), and is the sixth most common cause of cancer death among men. Prostate cancer is particularly prevalent in developed countries such as the United States and the Scandinavian countries, with about a six-fold difference between high-incidence and low-incidence countries. Interpretation of trends in incidence and survival are complicated by the increasing impact of PSA testing, particularly in more developed countries. As Western influences become more pronounced in less developed countries, prostate cancer incidence rates in those countries are tending to increase, even though the prevalence of PSA testing is relatively low. Larger proportions of younger men are being diagnosed with prostate cancer and living longer following diagnosis of prostate cancer, which has many implications for health systems. Decreasing mortality rates are becoming widespread among more developed countries, although it is not clear whether this is due to earlier diagnosis (PSA testing), improved treatment, or some combination of these or other factors.

Secular changes in BMI and obesity risk in Japanese children: Considerations from a morphologic perspective

The increasing prevalence of childhood obesity is a global health issue. Past studies in Japan have reported an increase in both body mass index (BMI) and risk of obesity among children and adolescents. However, changes in body size and proportion in this population over time have also influenced BMI. To date, no study of secular changes in childhood obesity has considered the impact of changes in morphological factors. The current study explored the secular changes in BMI and childhood obesity risk among Japanese children from 1950 to 2000 with consideration of changes in body size and the proportions using The Statistical Report of the School Health Survey (SHS). The age of peak velocity (PV) occurred approximately two years earlier in both genders across this period. While the increments in height, sitting height and sub-ischial leg length relative to height levelled off by 1980, weight gain continued in boys. Between 1980 and 2000, the rate of the upper body weight gain in boys and girls were 0.7-1.3 kg/decade and 0.2-1.0 kg/decade, respectively. After considering body proportions, increments in body weight were small. It could be suggested that the increments in weight and BMI across the 50-year period may be due to a combination of changes including the tempo of growth and body size due to lifestyle factors.

Secular series and renormalization group for amplitude equations

We have developed a technique that circumvents the process of elimination of secular terms and reproduces the uniformly valid approximations, amplitude equations, and first integrals. The technique is based on a rearrangement of secular terms and their grouping into the secular series that multiplies the constants of the asymptotic expansion. We illustrate the technique by deriving amplitude equations for standard nonlinear oscillator and boundary-layer problems. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Secular and religious moral grounds resonating across state schools in Indonesia

This paper describes moral education in Indonesia, more particularly, how teachers have implemented the Character Education policy issued by the Ministry of Education and Culture (MOEC) in 2010. This policy required teachers to instil certain values in every lesson, including EFL lessons, to contribute towards building a shared national moral character. Drawing on Durkheim's distinction between secular and religious morality, this paper considers how state schools accommodated and promoted this ‘rational moral education' or secular morality (Durkheim, 1925) in government schools, and how it interacted with religious moral education. This paper uses Bernstein's concepts of pedagogic discourse, instructional and regulative discourses to analyse how teachers have recontextualised this policy in the micro pedagogic settings of their EFL classes. Three types of data were collected for this study: interviews, class observations and teachers' lesson plans. In this way, four EFL teachers working in state schools were interviewed on two occasions and three of their classes were observed. The first interview identified teachers' beliefs and perceptions regarding the Character Education policy. Their classroom and lesson plans were observed to augment this information. Then the final interview asked about the teacher's thinking behind their actions in the observed classes. Since character education was issued within the broader frame of school based curriculum that offered schools and teachers more choices to develop the local curriculum and its intent, the analysis will focus on what moral premises were evident in their school and classes, and how such morality was transmitted through the EFL lessons. The conclusion suggests that teachers' implementation of moral education in their classes was dominated by their school communities and the teachers' own preferred value of religiosity. Such value played out in the classes through both the regulative discourse and the instructional discourse.

Field imperfection induced axial secular frequency shifts in nonlinear ion traps

This article develops a simple analytical expression that relates ion axial secular frequency to field aberration in ion trap mass spectrometers. Hexapole and octopole aberrations have been considered in the present computations. The equation of motion of the ions in a pseudopotential well with these superpositions has the form of a Duffing-like equation and a perturbation method has been used to obtain the expression for ion secular frequency as a function of field imperfections. The expression indicates that the frequency shift is sensitive to the sign of the octopole superposition and insensitive to the sign of the hexapole superposition. Further, for weak multipole superposition of the same magnitude, octopole superposition causes a larger frequency shift in comparison to hexapole superposition.

Third post-Newtonian angular momentum flux and the secular evolution of orbital elements for inspiralling compact binaries in quasi-elliptical orbits

The angular-momentum flux from an inspiralling binary system of compact objects moving in quasi-elliptical orbits is computed at the third post-Newtonian (3PN) order using the multipolar post-Minkowskian wave generation formalism. The 3PN angular-momentum flux involves the instantaneous, tail, and tail-of-tails contributions as for the 3PN energy flux, and in addition a contribution due to nonlinear memory. We average the angular-momentum flux over the binary's orbit using the 3PN quasi-Keplerian representation of elliptical orbits. The averaged angular-momentum flux provides the final input needed for gravitational-wave phasing of binaries moving in quasi-elliptical orbits. We obtain the evolution of orbital elements under 3PN gravitational radiation reaction in the quasi-elliptic case. For small eccentricities, we give simpler limiting expressions relevant for phasing up to order e(2). This work is important for the construction of templates for quasi-eccentric binaries, and for the comparison of post-Newtonian results with the numerical relativity simulations of the plunge and merger of eccentric binaries.

Bioética y trascendencia : la perspectiva cristiana en el mundo secular

El mundo actual se caracteriza por la diversidad de justificaciones morales, por lo que resulta arriesgado referirse a una única Bioética. Esta diversidad lleva a muchos autores a defender la necesidad de establecer una bioética secular, que ignora el pensamiento religioso y las manifestaciones de la cultura. El artículo analiza los caminos que atraviesa la bioética secular, en el contexto de creciente secularización del mundo actual para, finalmente, hacer referencia a los aportes que puede ofrecer una bioética cristiana.

A rock-magnetic and geomagnetic secular variation record from late-Pleistocene Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Exposed sediments of Late Pleistocene Lake Estancia contain a high resolution record of regional climate variability for the period about 12,000 to 32,000 years. A detailed rock-magnetic study is being performed on this well-dated, well-preserved sedimentary sequence to determine how the magnetic signature of sediments responded to regional climate change.

Temporal behaviour of marine landings along coastal Karnataka 1. Relative distribution and secular trends

Landing data of 21 fisheries from Karnataka (quarterly landings for the period 1956 to 1978 and annual landings for the period 1979 to 1981) were analysed to study the te111poral behaviour of the landings. The relative distribution and secular trends in each of the fisheries are reported. On an average, mackerel and oil sardine together account for about 70% of the annual landings. The fluctuation in the landings in all the fisheries was very high with the coefficient of variation attaining a minimum value of 61.53%. The inverse relationship between the landings of oil sardine and mackerel was found to be statistically significant. It is suggested that fishing effort be further increased in fisheries that have demonstrated a rising trend (about 73% of the total annual landings) as also in the case of the fisheries whose trends appear stagnant (about 21% of the annual landings). However, there seems to be some evidence of a need for regulating fishing in Hemirhamphus and Belone, Caranx and penaeid prawns. Regulations need to be made authentic with the help of sufficient information on not merely the fishery but on the whole population.