International transmission mechanisms and contagion in housing markets

This paper explores international transmission mechanism and its role in contagion effect in the housing markets across six major Asian cities. The analysis is based on the identification of house price diffusion effects through a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model estimated using quarterly data for six major Asian cities (Hong Kong, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Bangkok) from 1991Q1 to 2011Q2. The empirical results indicate that the open economies heavily relying on international trade such as Singapore, Japan (Tokyo), Taiwan (Taipei) and Thailand (Bangkok) show positive correlations between the economy's openness and house prices, which is consistent with the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis. Interestingly, some region-specific conditions also appear to play important roles as determinants of house price movements, which may be driven by restrictive housing policies and demand–supply imbalances such as Singapore and Bangkok. These results are reasonably robust across several model specifications. The findings bear significant implications for formulation of investment strategy and public policies.

Economic cycles, asymmetric crises and tourism competitiveness: emerging versus mature destinations

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on tourism destinations competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing a period of forty years, the differential permanent or temporary effects that economic crises has on competitiveness of mature and emerging destinations are observed. Furthermore, it identifies the economic transmission mechanisms operating within this context, analysing them using the framework of the most relevant explanatory models of tourism destination competitiveness. The preliminary results obtained suggest that the effects of these shocks on competitiveness are not neutral. In mature destinations the negative effects are more persistent in highly intensive crises. In emerging destinations with a growing natural trend on tourism demand, the effects of the economic crises are softer and limited, reinforcing the process of convergence between destinations. This effect works through two basic transmission mechanisms: the reduction of internal and external tourism demand and the decrease on investment.

The effects of economic crises on tourism success: an integrated model

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Mechanisms of long-term modulation of synaptic transmission in crayfish

Please consult the paper edition of this thesis to read. It is available on the 5th Floor of the Library at Call Number: Z 9999 B56 M68 2007

Economic crises and tourism competitiveness: A Markov swtiching regression approach

Authors discuss the effects that economic crises generate on the global market shares of tourism destinations, through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the previous literature using a non-linear approach. Specifically a Markov Switching Regression approach is used to estimate the effect of two basic transmission mechanisms: reductions of internal and external tourism demands and falling investment.

The Effect of Transmission Design on Force-Controlled Manipulator Performance

Previous research in force control has focused on the choice of appropriate servo implementation without corresponding regard to the choice of mechanical hardware. This report analyzes the effect of mechanical properties such as contact compliance, actuator-to-joint compliance, torque ripple, and highly nonlinear dry friction in the transmission mechanisms of a manipulator. A set of requisites for high performance then guides the development of mechanical-design and servo strategies for improved performance. A single-degree-of-freedom transmission testbed was constructed that confirms the predicted effect of Coulomb friction on robustness; design and construction of a cable-driven, four-degree-of- freedom, "whole-arm" manipulator illustrates the recommended design strategies.

Asymmetries in Business Cycles

Esta disertación busca estudiar los mecanismos de transmisión que vinculan el comportamiento de agentes y firmas con las asimetrías presentes en los ciclos económicos. Para lograr esto, se construyeron tres modelos DSGE. El en primer capítulo, el supuesto de función cuadrática simétrica de ajuste de la inversión fue removido, y el modelo canónico RBC fue reformulado suponiendo que des-invertir es más costoso que invertir una unidad de capital físico. En el segundo capítulo, la contribución más importante de esta disertación es presentada: la construcción de una función de utilidad general que anida aversión a la pérdida, aversión al riesgo y formación de hábitos, por medio de una función de transición suave. La razón para hacerlo así es el hecho de que los individuos son aversos a la pérdidad en recesiones, y son aversos al riesgo en auges. En el tercer capítulo, las asimetrías en los ciclos económicos son analizadas junto con ajuste asimétrico en precios y salarios en un contexto neokeynesiano, con el fin de encontrar una explicación teórica de la bien documentada asimetría presente en la Curva de Phillips.

União monetária Européia : diferenças no mecanismo de transmissão monetária

This study identifies differences in the monetary policy transmission mechanism across countries in the euro area. It is argued that part of the differences in the response of economic activity to monetary policy during the pre-EMU period reflected differences in monetary policy reaction functions, rather than different transmission mechanisms. In particular, monetary policy appears to have been more persistent in Germany and in those countries closely following Germany (such as Netherlands and Austria) in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Monetary policy in these countries appears to have had significant effects on domestic output. The corollary is that under EMU other countries—in particular France, Italy, Ireland, and Finland—are expected to see more sensitivity of output to monetary policy under EMU. Nevertheless, a common monetary policy is still found to bring about heterogeneous output responses across countries, reflecting variations in the strength of the interest, credit, and exchange rate channels that remain under EMU.

Trade and sustainable development: spatial distribution of trade policies impacts on agriculture

Incluye Bibliografía

Identificação e caracterização de isolado de Bidens mosaic virus e triagem de alface para resistência

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Combining spatial-temporal and phylogenetic analysis approaches for improved understanding on global H5N1 transmission

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds.

Transmission mode and distribution of parasites among groups of the social lizard Egernia stokesii

We explored patterns of infection of three apicomplexan blood parasites with different transmission mechanisms in 46 social groups across seven populations of the Australian lizard, Egernia stokesii. There was higher aggregation of infections within social groups for Hemolivia, transmitted by ticks, and Schellackia, either tick-transmitted or directly transmitted from mother to offspring, than for Plasmodium, with more mobile dipteran vectors. Prevalence was not related to group size, proximity to other groups or spatial overlap with adjacent groups for any of the parasites. However, for Hemolivia, groups with higher levels of relatedness among adults had higher parasite prevalence. Living in social groups leads to higher risk of infection for parasites with low transmission mobility. An unanswered question is why so few lizard species tolerate these risks to form stable social aggregations.

Essays on international macroeconomics and conflict analysis

This dissertation addressed two broad problems in international macroeconomics and conflict analysis. The first problem in the first chapter looked at the behavior of exchange rate and its interaction with industry-level tradable goods prices for three countries, USA, UK and Japan. This question has important monetary policy implications. Here, I computed to what extent changes in exchange rate affected prices of consumer, producer, and export goods. I also studied the timing of these changes in these prices. My results, based on thirty-four industrial prices for USA, UK and Japan, supported the view that changes in exchange rates significantly affect prices of industrial and consumer goods. It also provided an insight to the underlying economic process that led to changes in relative prices. ^ In the second chapter, I explored the predictability of future inflation by incorporating shocks to exchange rates and clearly specified the transmission mechanisms that link exchange rates to industry-level consumer and producer prices. Employing a variety of linear and state-of-the-art nonlinear models, I also predicted growth rates of future prices. Comparing levels of inflation obtained from the above approaches showed superiority of the structural model incorporating the exchange rate pass-through effect. ^ The second broad issue addressed in the third chapter of the dissertation investigated the economic motives for conflict, manifested by rebellion and civil war for seventeen Latin American countries. Based on the analytical framework of Garfinkel, Skaperdas and Syropoulos (2004), I employed ordinal regressions and Markov switching for a panel of seventeen countries to identify trade and openness factors responsible for conflict occurrence and intensity. The results suggested that increased trade openness reduced high intensity domestic conflicts but overdependence on agricultural exports, along with a lack of income earning opportunities lead to more conflicts. Thereafter, using the Cox Proportional Hazard model I studied “conflict duration” and found that over-reliance on agricultural exports explained a major part of the length of conflicts in addition to various socio-political factors. ^

Desenvolvimento de um instrumento de avaliação da vulnerabilidade de pacientes imunodeprimidos a infecções zoonóticas a partir de animais de estimação.

Os animais de estimação podem ser fonte de infecções, principalmente para seres humanos imunocomprometidos, em especial, pacientes portadores do vírus HIV. Considerando que o contato com animais pode prover benefícios emocionais, profissionais da área da saúde, em particular médicos e médicos veterinários, devem estar conscientes do papel potencial destes animais na transmissão de doenças de forma a preconizar medidas profiláticas para que esta transmissão não ocorra. As circunstâncias que favorecem a transmissão de doenças a partir dos animais de estimação ainda não são totalmente conhecidas, principalmente na realidade brasileira. Faltam estudos com o objetivo de investigar o risco de doenças de origem zoonótica decorrentes do contato com estes animais, hoje também chamados de animais pet. Ademais, ressente-se da falta de um instrumento devidamente elaborado e validado com a finalidade de captar as informações necessárias para a realização de estudos deste tipo ou mesmo para servir como ferramenta de rastreio de situações de vulnerabilidade de pacientes imunodeprimidos com vistas ao aconselhamento sobre medidas de prevenção. Desta maneira, o objetivo deste estudo é elaborar um instrumento para averiguar a vulnerabilidade de pacientes imunodeprimidos a infecções zoonóticas a partir de animais de estimação. Inicialmente, foram mapeados os animais de estimação mais encontrados no ambiente doméstico e as principais infecções que podem ser transmitidas a partir deles. Selecionaram-se, então, os possíveis mecanismos de transmissão a serem abordados. Dentre as espécies de animais de estimação elencadas, os cães, gatos, aves, répteis e os pequenos roedores foram os selecionados para a confecção deste instrumento. As infecções selecionadas foram: Salmonelose; Criptosporidíase; Giardíase; Dermatofitoses, Esporotricose, Bartonelose; Ancilostomíase; Toxocaríase; Psitacose; Toxoplasmose; Escabiose; Campilobacteriose; Criptococose e Histoplasmose. Considerando as diferentes formas de transmissão de cada infecção foram identificados os possíveis atos e comportamentos no contato com animais de estimação, bem como características destes animais, que poderiam aumentar a probabilidade de transmissão. O instrumento desenvolvido foi composto de uma primeira parte abarcando os critérios de elegibilidade, e de outra envolvendo o escopo principal do instrumento. Como as características de contato e as infecções variam de acordo com a espécie de animal, o instrumento abordou cada um dos cinco grupos de animais separadamente. O instrumento aqui proposto concerne à etapa inicial de um processo de desenvolvimento formal para utilização em futuras pesquisas sobre o papel dos animais de estimação na transmissão de infecções para pacientes imunodeprimidos. Estudos que explorem a confiabilidade e validade do instrumento proposto, assim como sua aceitabilidade, são necessários antes que seu uso seja recomendado.

A identidade social : trajectória de um discurso ideológico em José Saramago e Miguel Otero Silva

Tese de doutoramento, Estudos de Literatura e de Cultura (Estudos Comparatistas), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2014