Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns.

Photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7

We present a catalogue of galaxy photometric redshifts and k-corrections for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS-DR7), available on the World Wide Web. The photometric redshifts were estimated with an artificial neural network using five ugriz bands, concentration indices and Petrosian radii in the g and r bands. We have explored our redshift estimates with different training sets, thus concluding that the best choice for improving redshift accuracy comprises the main galaxy sample (MGS), the luminous red galaxies and the galaxies of active galactic nuclei covering the redshift range 0 < z < 0.3. For the MGS, the photometric redshift estimates agree with the spectroscopic values within rms = 0.0227. The distribution of photometric redshifts derived in the range 0 < z(phot) < 0.6 agrees well with the model predictions. k-corrections were derived by calibration of the k-correct_v4.2 code results for the MGS with the reference-frame (z = 0.1) (g - r) colours. We adopt a linear dependence of k-corrections on redshift and (g - r) colours that provide suitable distributions of luminosity and colours for galaxies up to redshift z(phot) = 0.6 comparable to the results in the literature. Thus, our k-correction estimate procedure is a powerful, low computational time algorithm capable of reproducing suitable results that can be used for testing galaxy properties at intermediate redshifts using the large SDSS data base.

Galaxy triplets in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7-I. Catalogue

We present a new catalogue of galaxy triplets derived from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7. The identification of systems was performed considering galaxies brighter than Mr=-20.5 and imposing constraints over the projected distances, radial velocity differences of neighbouring galaxies and isolation. To improve the identification of triplets, we employed a data pixelization scheme, which allows us to handle large amounts of data as in the SDSS photometric survey. Using spectroscopic and photometric data in the redshift range 0.01 =z= 0.40, we obtain 5901 triplet candidates. We have used a mock catalogue to analyse the completeness and contamination of our methods. The results show a high level of completeness ( 80 per cent) and low contamination ( 5 per cent). By using photometric and spectroscopic data, we have also addressed the effects of fibre collisions in the spectroscopic sample. We have defined an isolation criterion considering the distance of the triplet brightest galaxy to the closest neighbour cluster, to describe a global environment, as well as the galaxies within a fixed aperture, around the triplet brightest galaxy, to measure the local environment. The final catalogue comprises 1092 isolated triplets of galaxies in the redshift range 0.01 =z= 0.40. Our results show that photometric redshifts provide very useful information, allowing us to complete the sample of nearby systems whose detection is affected by fibre collisions, as well as extending the detection of triplets to large distances, where spectroscopic redshifts are not available.

VVV DR1: The first data release of the Milky Way bulge and southern plane from the near-infrared ESO public survey VISTA variables in the Via Lactea

Context. The ESO public survey VISTA variables in the Via Lactea (VVV) started in 2010. VVV targets 562 sq. deg in the Galactic bulge and an adjacent plane region and is expected to run for about five years. Aims. We describe the progress of the survey observations in the first observing season, the observing strategy, and quality of the data obtained. Methods. The observations are carried out on the 4-m VISTA telescope in the ZYJHK(s) filters. In addition to the multi-band imaging the variability monitoring campaign in the K-s filter has started. Data reduction is carried out using the pipeline at the Cambridge Astronomical Survey Unit. The photometric and astrometric calibration is performed via the numerous 2MASS sources observed in each pointing. Results. The first data release contains the aperture photometry and astrometric catalogues for 348 individual pointings in the ZYJHK(s) filters taken in the 2010 observing season. The typical image quality is similar to 0 ''.9-1 ''.0. The stringent photometric and image quality requirements of the survey are satisfied in 100% of the JHK(s) images in the disk area and 90% of the JHK(s) images in the bulge area. The completeness in the Z and Y images is 84% in the disk, and 40% in the bulge. The first season catalogues contain 1.28 x 10(8) stellar sources in the bulge and 1.68 x 10(8) in the disk area detected in at least one of the photometric bands. The combined, multi-band catalogues contain more than 1.63 x 10(8) stellar sources. About 10% of these are double detections because of overlapping adjacent pointings. These overlapping multiple detections are used to characterise the quality of the data. The images in the JHK(s) bands extend typically similar to 4 mag deeper than 2MASS. The magnitude limit and photometric quality depend strongly on crowding in the inner Galactic regions. The astrometry for K-s = 15-18 mag has rms similar to 35-175 mas. Conclusions. The VVV Survey data products offer a unique dataset to map the stellar populations in the Galactic bulge and the adjacent plane and provide an exciting new tool for the study of the structure, content, and star-formation history of our Galaxy, as well as for investigations of the newly discovered star clusters, star-forming regions in the disk, high proper motion stars, asteroids, planetary nebulae, and other interesting objects.

Galaxy triplets in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7: II. A connection with compact groups?

We analyse a sample of 71 triplets of luminous galaxies derived from the work of O’Mill et al. We compare the properties of triplets and their members with those of control samples of compact groups, the 10 brightest members of rich clusters and galaxies in pairs. The triplets are restricted to have members with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.01 ≤ z ≤ 0.14 and absolute r-band luminosities brighter than Mr = −20.5. For these member galaxies, we analyse the stellar mass content, the star formation rates, the Dn(4000) parameter and (Mg − Mr) colour index. Since galaxies in triplets may finally merge in a single system, we analyse different global properties of these systems. We calculate the probability that the properties of galaxies in triplets are strongly correlated. We also study total star formation activity and global colours, and define the triplet compactness as a measure of the percentage of the system total area that is filled by the light of member galaxies. We concentrate in the comparison of our results with those of compact groups to assess how the triplets are a natural extension of these compact systems. Our analysis suggests that triplet galaxy members behave similarly to compact group members and galaxies in rich clusters. We also find that systems comprising three blue, star-forming, young stellar population galaxies (blue triplets) are most probably real systems and not a chance configuration of interloping galaxies. The same holds for triplets composed of three red, non-star-forming galaxies, showing the correlation of galaxy properties in these systems. From the analysis of the triplet as a whole, we conclude that, at a given total stellar mass content, triplets show a total star formation activity and global colours similar to compact groups. However, blue triplets show a high total star formation activity with a lower stellar mass content. From an analysis of the compactness parameter of the systems we find that light is even more concentrated in triplets than in compact groups. We propose that triplets composed of three luminous galaxies, should not be considered as an analogous of galaxy pairs with a third extra member, but rather they are a natural extension of compact groups.

THE SLOAN BRIGHT ARCS SURVEY: DISCOVERY OF SEVEN NEW STRONGLY LENSED GALAXIES FROM z=0.66-2.94

We report the discovery of seven new, very bright gravitational lens systems from our ongoing gravitational lens search, the Sloan Bright Arcs Survey (SBAS). Two of the systems are confirmed to have high source redshifts z = 2.19 and z = 2.94. Three other systems lie at intermediate redshift with z = 1.33, 1.82, 1.93 and two systems are at low redshift z = 0.66, 0.86. The lensed source galaxies in all of these systems are bright, with i-band magnitudes ranging from 19.73 to 22.06. We present the spectrum of each of the source galaxies in these systems along with estimates of the Einstein radius for each system. The foreground lens in most systems is identified by a red sequence based cluster finder as a galaxy group; one system is identified as a moderately rich cluster. In total, SBAS has now discovered 19 strong lens systems in the SDSS imaging data, 8 of which are among the highest surface brightness z similar or equal to 2-3 galaxies known.

THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY CO-ADD: A GALAXY PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT CATALOG

We present and describe a catalog of galaxy photometric redshifts (photo-z) for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Co-add Data. We use the artificial neural network (ANN) technique to calculate the photo-z and the nearest neighbor error method to estimate photo-z errors for similar to 13 million objects classified as galaxies in the co-add with r < 24.5. The photo-z and photo-z error estimators are trained and validated on a sample of similar to 83,000 galaxies that have SDSS photometry and spectroscopic redshifts measured by the SDSS Data Release 7 (DR7), the Canadian Network for Observational Cosmology Field Galaxy Survey, the Deep Extragalactic Evolutionary Probe Data Release 3, the VIsible imaging Multi-Object Spectrograph-Very Large Telescope Deep Survey, and the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey. For the best ANN methods we have tried, we find that 68% of the galaxies in the validation set have a photo-z error smaller than sigma(68) = 0.031. After presenting our results and quality tests, we provide a short guide for users accessing the public data.

Intercluster filaments of galaxies programme: Pilot study survey and results

We present results from a pilot study of a new wide-field, multicolour (BVR) CCD imaging project, designed to examine galaxy evolution along large-scale filaments that connect clusters of galaxies at intermediate redshifts (0.07 < z < 0.20). Our pilot data set is based on 0.56 deg(2) of observations targeted on Abell 1079 and Abell 1084 using the Wide Field Imager on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. We describe our data reduction pipeline and show that our photometric error is 0.04 mag. By selecting galaxies that lie on the colour-magnitude relation of the two clusters we verify the existence of a low-density (similar to3-4 Mpc(-2)) filament population, conjoining them at a distance of > 3r(Abell) from either cluster. By applying a simple field correction, we characterize this filament population by examining their colour distribution on a (V-R)-(B-V) plane. We confirm the galaxian filament detection at a 7.5 sigma level using a cut at M-V = -18 and we discuss their broad properties.

The 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO (2SLAQ) survey: the z < 2.1 quasar luminosity function from 5645 quasars to g=21.85

We have used the Two-Degree Field (2dF) instrument on the Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT) to obtain redshifts of a sample of z < 3 and 18.0 < g < 21.85 quasars selected from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) imaging. These data are part of a larger joint programme between the SDSS and 2dF communities to obtain spectra of faint quasars and luminous red galaxies, namely the 2dF-SDSS LRG and QSO (2SLAQ) Survey. We describe the quasar selection algorithm and present the resulting number counts and luminosity function of 5645 quasars in 105.7 deg(2). The bright-end number counts and luminosity functions agree well with determinations from the 2dF QSO Redshift Survey (2QZ) data to g similar to 20.2. However, at the faint end, the 2SLAQ number counts and luminosity functions are steeper (i.e. require more faint quasars) than the final 2QZ results from Croom et al., but are consistent with the preliminary 2QZ results from Boyle et al. Using the functional form adopted for the 2QZ analysis ( a double power law with pure luminosity evolution characterized by a second-order polynomial in redshift), we find a faint-end slope of beta =-1.78 +/- 0.03 if we allow all of the parameters to vary, and beta =-1.45 +/- 0.03 if we allow only the faint-end slope and normalization to vary (holding all other parameters equal to the final 2QZ values). Over the magnitude range covered by the 2SLAQ survey, our maximum-likelihood fit to the data yields 32 per cent more quasars than the final 2QZ parametrization, but is not inconsistent with other g > 21 deep surveys for quasars. The 2SLAQ data exhibit no well-defined 'break' in the number counts or luminosity function, but do clearly flatten with increasing magnitude. Finally, we find that the shape of the quasar luminosity function derived from 2SLAQ is in good agreement with that derived from Type I quasars found in hard X-ray surveys.

Calibrating photometric redshifts of luminous red galaxies

We discuss the construction of a photometric redshift catalogue of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), emphasizing the principal steps necessary for constructing such a catalogue: (i) photometrically selecting the sample, (ii) measuring photometric redshifts and their error distributions, and (iii) estimating the true redshift distribution. We compare two photometric redshift algorithms for these data and find that they give comparable results. Calibrating against the SDSS and SDSS-2dF (Two Degree Field) spectroscopic surveys, we find that the photometric redshift accuracy is sigma similar to 0.03 for redshifts less than 0.55 and worsens at higher redshift (similar to 0.06 for z < 0.7). These errors are caused by photometric scatter, as well as systematic errors in the templates, filter curves and photometric zero-points. We also parametrize the photometric redshift error distribution with a sum of Gaussians and use this model to deconvolve the errors from the measured photometric redshift distribution to estimate the true redshift distribution. We pay special attention to the stability of this deconvolution, regularizing the method with a prior on the smoothness of the true redshift distribution. The methods that we develop are applicable to general photometric redshift surveys.

A new algorithm for the detection of intercluster galaxy filaments using galaxy orientation alignments

We present a new algorithm for detecting intercluster galaxy filaments based upon the assumption that the orientations of constituent galaxies along such filaments are non-isotropic. We apply the algorithm to the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey catalogue and find that it readily detects many straight filaments between close cluster pairs. At large intercluster separations (> 15 h(-1) Mpc), we find that the detection efficiency falls quickly, as it also does with more complex filament morphologies. We explore the underlying assumptions and suggest that it is only in the case of close cluster pairs that we can expect galaxy orientations to be significantly correlated with filament direction.

A field study to describe diel, tidal and semilunar rhythms of larval release in an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs

Available information on the larval release rhythms of brachyurans is biased to temperate estuarine species and outcomes resulting from some sort of artificial manipulation of ovigerous females. In this study we applied field methods to describe the larval release rhythms of an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs. Sampling the broods of ovigerous females of Pachygrapsus transversus at two different shores indicated a spatially consistent semilunar pattern, with larval release maxima around the full and new moon. Yet, synchronism between populations varied considerably, with the pattern obtained at the site exposed to a lower wave action far more apparent. Breeding cohorts at one of the sampled shores apparently belonged to actual age groups composing the ovigerous population. The data suggest that these breeding groups release their larvae in alternate syzygy periods, responding to a lunar cycle instead of the semilunar pattern observed for the whole population. For the description of shorter-term rhythms, temporal series at hour intervals were obtained by sampling the plankton and confinement boxes where ovigerous females were held. Unexpectedly, diurnal release activity prevailed over nocturnal hatching. Yet, only grapsids living higher on the shore exhibited strong preferences over the diel cycle, with P. transversus releasing their larvae during the day and Geograpsus lividus during the night. The pea crab Dissodactylus crinitichelis, the spider crab Epialtus brasiliensis and a suite of xanthoids undertook considerable releasing activity in both periods. Apart from the commensal pea crab D. crinitichelis, all other taxa revealed tide-related rhythms of larval release, with average estimates of the time of maximum hatching always around the time of high tides; usually during the flooding and slack, rather than the ebbing tide. Data obtained for P. transversus females held in confinement boxes indicated that early larval release is mostly due to nocturnal hatching, while zoeal release in diurnal groups took place at the time of high tide. Since nocturnal high tides at the study area occurred late, sometimes close to dusk, early release would allow more time for offshore transport of larvae when the action of potential predators is reduced.

Factors in the selection of patients for conditional release from their first psychiatric hospitalization

Objective: This study examined a sample of patients in Victoria, Australia, to identify factors in selection for conditional release from an initial hospitalization that occurred within 30 days of entry into the mental health system. Methods: Data were from the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register. All patients first hospitalized and conditionally released between 1990 and 2000 were identified (N = 8,879), and three comparison groups were created. Two groups were hospitalized within 30 days of entering the system: those who were given conditional release and those who were not. A third group was conditionally released from a hospitalization that occurred after or extended beyond 30 days after system entry. Logistic regression identified characteristics that distinguished the first group. Ordinary least-squares regression was used to evaluate the contribution of conditional release early in treatment to reducing inpatient episodes, inpatient days, days per episode, and inpatient days per 30 days in the system. Results: Conditional release early in treatment was used for 11 percent of the sample, or more than a third of those who were eligible for this intervention. Factors significantly associated with selection for early conditional release were those related to a better prognosis ( initial hospitalization at a later age and having greater than an 11th grade education), a lower likelihood of a diagnosis of dementia or schizophrenia, involuntary status at first inpatient admission, and greater community involvement ( being employed and being married). When the analyses controlled for these factors, use of conditional release early in treatment was significantly associated with a reduction in use of subsequent inpatient care.

A field study to describe diel, tidal and semilunar rhythms of larval release in an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs

Available information on the larval release rhythms of brachyurans is biased to temperate estuarine species and outcomes resulting from some sort of artificial manipulation of ovigerous females. In this study we applied field methods to describe the larval release rhythms of an assemblage of tropical rocky shore crabs. Sampling the broods of ovigerous females of Pachygrapsus transversus at two different shores indicated a spatially consistent semilunar pattern, with larval release maxima around the full and new moon. Yet, synchronism between populations varied considerably, with the pattern obtained at the site exposed to a lower wave action far more apparent. Breeding cohorts at one of the sampled shores apparently belonged to actual age groups composing the ovigerous population. The data suggest that these breeding groups release their larvae in alternate syzygy periods, responding to a lunar cycle instead of the semilunar pattern observed for the whole population. For the description of shorter-term rhythms, temporal series at hour intervals were obtained by sampling the plankton and confinement boxes where ovigerous females were held. Unexpectedly, diurnal release activity prevailed over nocturnal hatching. Yet, only grapsids living higher on the shore exhibited strong preferences over the diel cycle, with P. transversus releasing their larvae during the day and Geograpsus lividus during the night. The pea crab Dissodactylus crinitichelis, the spider crab Epialtus brasiliensis and a suite of xanthoids undertook considerable releasing activity in both periods. Apart from the commensal pea crab D. crinitichelis, all other taxa revealed tide-related rhythms of larval release, with average estimates of the time of maximum hatching always around the time of high tides; usually during the flooding and slack, rather than the ebbing tide. Data obtained for P. transversus females held in confinement boxes indicated that early larval release is mostly due to nocturnal hatching, while zoeal release in diurnal groups took place at the time of high tide. Since nocturnal high tides at the study area occurred late, sometimes close to dusk, early release would allow more time for offshore transport of larvae when the action of potential predators is reduced.