Controling delayed transitions with applications to prevent single species extinctions

A new method is proposed to control delayed transitions towards extinction in single population theoretical models with discrete time undergoing saddle-node bifurcations. The control method takes advantage of the delaying properties of the saddle remnant arising after the bifurcation, and allows to sustain populations indefinitely. Our method, which is shown to work for deterministic and stochastic systems, could generally be applied to avoid transitions tied to one-dimensional maps after saddle-node bifurcations.

Detecting patterns of species diversification in the presence of both rate shifts and mass extinctions.

BACKGROUND: Recent methodological advances allow better examination of speciation and extinction processes and patterns. A major open question is the origin of large discrepancies in species number between groups of the same age. Existing frameworks to model this diversity either focus on changes between lineages, neglecting global effects such as mass extinctions, or focus on changes over time which would affect all lineages. Yet it seems probable that both lineages differences and mass extinctions affect the same groups. RESULTS: Here we used simulations to test the performance of two widely used methods under complex scenarios of diversification. We report good performances, although with a tendency to over-predict events with increasing complexity of the scenario. CONCLUSION: Overall, we find that lineage shifts are better detected than mass extinctions. This work has significance to assess the methods currently used to estimate changes in diversification using phylogenetic trees. Our results also point toward the need to develop new models of diversification to expand our capabilities to analyse realistic and complex evolutionary scenarios.

Extinctions of living things.

Se estudia la evolución de los seres vivos y la desaparición de especies, también, se evalúa la responsabilidad de los seres humanos en las extinciones. Se destaca el esfuerzo de los científicos por proteger las especies amenazadas por cambios ecológicos catastróficos. Al final del libro hay una pequeña bibliografía y direcciones de páginas web.

Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

Debate over the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important drivers of extinction, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following minor improvements or changes in the dates of extinctions and human colonisation.

Diversification events and the effects of mass extinctions on Crocodyliformes evolutionary history

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Book Review of Twilight of the Mammoths: Ice Age Extinctions and the Rewilding of America by Paul S. Martin

Applying ecological studies to the adaptations of prehistoric human hunter-gatherer groups has greatly increased our abilities to interpret effects of an ever-changing environment and our access to critical resources on these populations. The Pleistocene/Holocene transition, its climate and human genesis in the new world, draws intensive interest from a number of scientific communities. In Twilight of the Mammoths, Paul Martin adds his views, which are of no surprise, on the megafaunal extirpations during a cultural period referred to in North America as Clovis.

Mass extinctions, galactic orbits in the solar neighborhood and the Sun: a connection?

The orbits of the stars in the disk of the Galaxy, and their passages through the Galactic spiral arms, are a rarely mentioned factor of biosphere stability which might be important for long-term planetary climate evolution, with a possible bearing on mass extinctions. The Sun lies very near the co-rotation radius, where stars revolve around the Galaxy in the same period as the density wave perturbations of the spiral arms. conventional wisdom generally considers that this status makes for few passages through the spiral arms. Controversy still surrounds whether time spent inside or around spiral arms is dangerous to biospheres and conductive to mass extinctions. Possible threats include giant molecular clouds disturbing the Oort comet cloud and provoking heavy bombardment: a higher exposure to cosmic rays near star forming regions triggering increased cloudiness in Earth atmosphere and ice ages; and the desctruction of Earth's ozone layer posed by supernova explosiosn. We present detailed calculations of the history of spiral arm passages for all 212 solar-type stars nearer than 20 parsecs, including the total time spent inside armsin the last 500 Myr, when the spiral arm position can be traced with good accuracy. We found that there is a large diversity of stellar orbits in the solar neighborhood, and the time fraction spent inside spiral arms can vary from a few percent to nearly half the time. The Sun, despite its proximity to the galactic co-rotation radius, has exceptionally low eccentricity and a low vertical velocity component, and therefore spends 30% of its lifetime crossing the spiral arms, more than most nearby stars. We discuss the possible implications of this fact to the long-term habitability of the Earth, and possible correlations of the Sun's passage through the spiral arms with the five great mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere from the Late Ordovician to the Cretaceous-Tertiary.

Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

In terms of atmospheric impact, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991) is the best characterized large eruption on record. We investigate here the model-derived stratospheric warming following the Pinatubo eruption as derived from SAGE II extinction data including recent improvements in the processing algorithm. This method, termed SAGE_4λ, makes use of the four wavelengths (385, 452, 525 and 1024 nm) of the SAGE II data when available, and uses a data-filling procedure in the opacity-induced "gap" regions. Using SAGE_4λ, we derived aerosol size distributions that properly reproduce extinction coefficients also at much longer wavelengths. This provides a good basis for calculating the absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation and the resulting stratospheric heating. However, we also show that the use of this data set in a global chemistry–climate model (CCM) still leads to stronger aerosol-induced stratospheric heating than observed, with temperatures partly even higher than the already too high values found by many models in recent general circulation model (GCM) and CCM intercomparisons. This suggests that the overestimation of the stratospheric warming after the Pinatubo eruption may not be ascribed to an insufficient observational database but instead to using outdated data sets, to deficiencies in the implementation of the forcing data, or to radiative or dynamical model artifacts. Conversely, the SAGE_4λ approach reduces the infrared absorption in the tropical tropopause region, resulting in a significantly better agreement with the post-volcanic temperature record at these altitudes.

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

Physiological advantages of dwarfing in surviving extinctions in high-CO2 oceans

Excessive CO2 in the present-day ocean-atmosphere system is causing ocean acidification, and is likely to cause a severe biodiversity decline in the future, mirroring effects in many past mass extinctions. Fossil records demonstrate that organisms surviving such events were often smaller than those before, a phenomenon called the Lilliput effect. Here, we show that two gastropod species adapted to acidified seawater at shallow-water CO2 seeps were smaller than those found in normal pH conditions and had higher mass-specific energy consumption but significantly lower whole-animal metabolic energy demand. These physiological changes allowed the animals to maintain calcification and to partially repair shell dissolution. These observations of the long-term chronic effects of increased CO2 levels forewarn of changes we can expect in marine ecosystems as CO2 emissions continue to rise unchecked, and support the hypothesis that ocean acidification contributed to past extinction events. The ability to adapt through dwarfing can confer physiological advantages as the rate of CO2 emissions continues to increase.

Benthic foraminifera extinctions in the Cenozoic record

In the late Pliocene-middle Pleistocene a group of 95 species of elongate, cylindrical, deep-sea (lower bathyal-abyssal) benthic foraminifera became extinct. This Extinction Group (Ext. Gp), belonging to three families (all the Stilostomellidae and Pleurostomellidae, some of the Nodosariidae), was a major component (20-70%) of deep-sea foraminiferal assemblages in the middle Cenozoic and subsequently declined in abundance and species richness before finally disappearing almost completely during the mid-Pleistocene Climatic Transition (MPT). So what caused these declines and extinction? In this study 127 Ext. Gp species are identified from eight Cenozoic bathyal and abyssal sequences in the North Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans. Most species are long-ranging with 80% originating in the Eocene or earlier. The greatest abundance and diversity of the Ext. Gp was in the warm oceanic conditions of the middle Eocene-early Oligocene. The group was subjected to significant changes in the composition of the faunal dominants and slightly enhanced species turnover during and soon after the rapid Eocene-Oligocene cooling event. Declines in the relative abundance and flux of the Ext. Gp, together with enhanced species loss, occurred during middle-late Miocene cooling, particularly at abyssal sites. The overall number of Ext. Gp species present began declining earlier at mid abyssal depths (in middle Miocene) than at upper abyssal (in late Pliocene-early Pleistocene) and then lower bathyal depths (in MPT). By far the most significant Ext. Gp declines in abundance and species loss occurred during the more severe glacial stages of the late Pliocene-middle Pleistocene. Clearly, the decline and extinction of this group of deep-sea foraminifera was related to the function of their specialized apertures and the stepwise cooling of global climate and deep water. We infer that the apertural modifications may be related to the method of food collection or processing, and that the extinctions may have resulted from the decline or loss of their specific phytoplankton or prokaryote food source, that was more directly impacted than the foraminifera by the cooling temperatures.