Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under 21st-century climate change

Quantitative estimates of the range loss of mountain plants under climate change have so far mostly relied on static geographical projections of species' habitat shifts(1-3). Here, we use a hybrid model(4) that combines such projections with simulations of demography and seed dispersal to forecast the climate-driven spatio-temporal dynamics of 150 high-mountain plant species across the European Alps. This model predicts average range size reductions of 44-50% by the end of the twenty-first century, which is similar to projections from the most 'optimistic' static model (49%). However, the hybrid model also indicates that population dynamics will lag behind climatic trends and that an average of 40% of the range still occupied at the end of the twenty-first century will have become climatically unsuitable for the respective species, creating an extinction debt(5,6). Alarmingly, species endemic to the Alps seem to face the highest range losses. These results caution against optimistic conclusions from moderate range size reductions observed during the twenty-first century as they are likely to belie more severe longer-term effects of climate warming on mountain plants.

Evaluating the legacy of landscape history: extinction debt and species credit in bird and small mammal assemblages in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

Beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Functional biogeography of oceanic islands and the scaling of functional diversity in the Azores

Analyses of species-diversity patterns of remote islands have been crucial to the development of biogeographic theory, yet little is known about corresponding patterns in functional traits on islands and how, for example, they may be affected by the introduction of exotic species. We collated trait data for spiders and beetles and used a functional diversity index (FRic) to test for nonrandomness in the contribution of endemic, other native (also combined as indigenous), and exotic species to functional-trait space across the nine islands of the Azores. In general, for both taxa and for each distributional category, functional diversity increases with species richness, which, in turn scales with island area. Null simulations support the hypothesis that each distributional group contributes to functional diversity in proportion to their species richness. Exotic spiders have added novel trait space to a greater degree than have exotic beetles, likely indicating greater impact of the reduction of immigration filters and/or differential historical losses of indigenous species. Analyses of species occurring in native-forest remnants provide limited indications of the operation of habitat filtering of exotics for three islands, but only for beetles. Although the general linear (not saturating) pattern of trait-space increase with richness of exotics suggests an ongoing process of functional enrichment and accommodation, further work is urgently needed to determine how estimates of extinction debt of indigenous species should be adjusted in the light of these findings.

Limiting factors in the restoration of UK grassland beetle assemblages

Grasslands restoration is a key management tool contributing to the long-term maintenance of insect populations, providing functional connectivity and mitigating against extinction debt across landscapes. As knowledge of grassland insect communities is limited, the lag between the initiation of restoration and the ability of these new habitats to contribute to such processes is unclear. Using ten data sets, ranging from 3 to 14 years, we investigate the lag between restoration and the establishment of phytophagous beetle assemblages typical of species rich grasslands. We used traits and ecological characteristics to determine factors limiting beetle colonisation, and also considered how food-web structure changed during restoration. For sites where seed addition of host-plants occurred the success in replicating beetle assemblages increased over time following a negative exponential function. Extrapolation beyond the existing data set tentatively suggested that success would plateau after 20 years, representing a c. 60% increase in assemblage similarity to target grasslands. In the absence of seed addition, similarity to the target grasslands showed no increase over time. Where seed addition was used the connectance of plant-herbivore food webs decreased over time, approaching values typical of species rich grasslands after c. 7 years. This trend was, however, dependent on the inclusion of a single site containing data in excess of 6 years of restoration management. Beetles not capable of flight, those showing high degrees of host-plant specialisation and species feeding on nationally rare host plants take between 1 and 3 years longer to colonise. Successful grassland restoration is underpinned by the establishment of host-plants, although individual species traits compound the effects of poor host-plant establishment to slow colonisation. The use of pro-active grassland restoration to mitigate against future environmental change should account for lag periods in excess of 10 years if the value of these habitats is to be fully realised.

Limiting factors in the restoration of grassland insects

Grasslands restoration is a key management tool contributing to the long-term maintenance of insect populations, providing functional connectivity and mitigating against extinction debt across landscapes. As knowledge of grassland insect communities is limited, the lag between the initiation of restoration and the ability of these new habitats to contribute to the successful enhancement of native biodiversity is unclear. Using two long term data sets, we investigate differences in successional trajectories during the establishment of butterfly (11 years) and phytophagous beetle (13 years) communities during the recreation of calcareous grassland. Overall restoration success was higher for the butterflies than the beetles. However, both shared a general pattern of rapidly increasing restoration success over the first five years, awhich approached an asymptote after c. 10 years. The use of pro-active grassland restoration to mitigate against future environmental change therefore needs to account for such time lag if the value of these habitats is to be fully realised.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O efeito da fragmentação insular na paisagem e comunidade arbórea em ilhas na Amazônia

A construção de usinas hidrelétricas tem sido um novo vetor de fragmentação florestal no globo, sobretudo na Amazônia, que possui várias barragens em fase de construção atualmente, além das planejadas. A formação de reservatórios em usinas hidrelétricas proporciona paisagens fragmentadas, com a criação de ilhas artificiais (fragmentos), que possuem a peculiaridade de estarem cercada por uma matriz mais resistente para a maioria das espécies, diferente dos fragmentos terrestres, tendo um efeito direto na redução da biodiversidade. Esta pesquisa buscou avaliar a paisagem insular do Lago de Tucuruí, por meio da quantificação da estrutura da paisagem, como subsidio para implicações de conservação. Concomitantemente, avaliou-se os efeitos da fragmentação insular sobre a comunidade arbórea, através da estrutura da paisagem e efeito de borda, ambos têm sido um dos processos ecológicos mais impactantes na diversidade biológica em paisagens fragmentadas. Os resultados indicaram o arranjo espacial pode ser uma abordagem utilizada para os mecanismos de conservação em barragens, mas devendo considerar aspectos específicos das ilhas. Por sua vez, a vegetação ainda não estar respondendo a estrutura da paisagem atual, estando em uma fase de débito de extinção, sendo o efeito de borda o principal fator para formação das comunidades vegetais.

Land-use and land-cover change in Atlantic Forest landscapes

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened tropical biomes, with much of the standing forest in small (less than 50 ha), disturbed and isolated patches. The pattern of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) which has resulted in this critical scenario has not yet been fully investigated. Here, we describe the LULCC in three Atlantic Forest fragmented landscapes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1960-1980s and 1980-2000s. The three studied landscapes differ in the current proportion of forest cover, having 10%, 30% and 50% respectively. Between the 1960s and 1980s. forest cover of two landscapes was reduced while the forest cover in the third landscape increased slightly. The opposite trend was observed between the 1980s and 2000s: forest regeneration was greater than deforestation at the landscapes with 10% and 50% of forest cover and, as a consequence, forest cover increased. By contrast, the percentage of forest cover at the landscape with 30% of forest cover was drastically reduced between the 1980s and 2000s. LULCC deviated from a random trajectory, were not constant through time in two study landscapes and were not constant across space in a given time period. This landscape dynamism in single locations over small temporal scales is a key factor to be considered in models of LULCC to accurately simulate future changes for the Atlantic Forest. In general, forest patches became more isolated when deforestation was greater than forest regeneration and became more connected when forest regeneration was greater than deforestation. As a result of the dynamic experienced by the study landscapes, individual forest patches currently consist of a mosaic of different forest age classes which is likely to impact bio-diversity. Furthermore, landscape dynamics suggests the beginning of a forest transition in some Atlantic Forest regions, what could be of great importance for biodiversity conservation due to the potential effects of young secondary forests in reducing forest isolation and maintaining a significant amount of the original biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Life in the end-Permian dead zone

The fossil record of land plants is an obvious source of information on the dynamics of mass extinctions in the geological past. In conjunction with the end-Permian ecological crisis, ≈250 million years ago, palynological data from East Greenland reveal some unanticipated patterns. We document the significant time lag between terrestrial ecosystem collapse and selective extinction among characteristic Late Permian plants. Furthermore, ecological crisis resulted in an initial increase in plant diversity, instead of a decrease. Paradoxically, these floral patterns correspond to a “dead zone” in the end-Permian faunal record, characterized by a paucity of marine invertebrate megafossils. The time-delayed, end-Permian plant extinctions resemble modeled “extinction debt” responses of multispecies metapopulations to progressive habitat destruction.

A community-based wildlife survey: the knowledge and attitudes of residents of suburban Brisbane, with a focus on bandicoots

Within the expanding city of Brisbane in south-east Queensland, numerous fragments of native and regrowth vegetation are scattered across the largely urbanised landscape. These fragments provide refuge to a great diversity of native wildlife, and, provide residents with the opportunity to experience nature on their doorstep. To assess the diversity and abundance of this wildlife, recent changes in these parameters, and the value of wildlife and bushland fragments to residents of Brisbane, a questionnaire survey was distributed to 300 households each located adjacent to one of 38 urban bushland fragments. A total of 172 surveys (57%) were returned, producing 768 records of 83 fauna species, dominated by birds and mammals; bandicoots were widely reported from the 38 fragments. Several historical records provided evidence of recent local extinctions within fragments, highlighting the continuing declines in various species of native wildlife within Brisbane. Several human-wildlife conflicts were identified, but overall residents were tolerant of such conflicts. Bandicoots were disliked by a small minority (3%) of residents owing to the holes they dig in lawns and gardens in search of food. and their potential as vectors of ticks. Most respondents expressed ail appreciation for the presence of native wildlife (96%) and bushland fragments (97%) in their local area, emphasising the importance of incorporating human dimension values into the management of this urban biodiversity.

Development And Characterization Of Microsatellite Loci For Ocotea Species (lauraceae) Threatened With Extinction.

The Atlantic rainforest species Ocotea catharinensis, Ocotea odorifera, and Ocotea porosa have been extensively harvested in the past for timber and oil extraction and are currently listed as threatened due to overexploitation. To investigate the genetic diversity and population structure of these species, we developed 8 polymorphic microsatellite markers for O. odorifera from an enriched microsatellite library by using 2 dinucleotide repeats. The microsatellite markers were tested for cross-amplification in O. catharinensis and O. porosa. The average number of alleles per locus was 10.2, considering all loci over 2 populations of O. odorifera. Observed and expected heterozygosities for O. odorifera ranged from 0.39 to 0.93 and 0.41 to 0.92 across populations, respectively. Cross-amplification of all loci was successfully observed in O. catharinensis and O. porosa except 1 locus that was found to lack polymorphism in O. porosa. Combined probabilities of identity in the studied Ocotea species were very low ranging from 1.0 x 10-24 to 7.7 x 10-24. The probability of exclusion over all loci estimated for O. odorifera indicated a 99.9% chance of correctly excluding a random nonparent individual. The microsatellite markers described in this study have high information content and will be useful for further investigations on genetic diversity within these species and for subsequent conservation purposes.

Colonization and extinction of land planarians (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida) in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest regrowth remnant

Long-term assessments of species assemblages are valuable tools for detecting species ecological preferences and their dispersal tracks, as well as for assessing the possible effects of alien species on native communities. Here we report a 50-year-long study on population dynamics of the four species of land flatworms (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida, Terricola) that have colonized or become extinct in a 70-year-old Atlantic Forest regrowth remnant through the period 1955-2006. On the one hand, the two initially most abundant species, which are native to the study site, Notogynaphallia ernesti and Geoplana multicolor have declined over decades and at present do not exist in the forest remnant. The extinction of these species is most likely related with their preference for open vegetation areas, which presently do not exist in the forest remnant. On the other hand, the neotropical Geoplaninae 1 and the exotic Endeavouria septemlineata were detected in the forest only very recently. The long-term study allowed us to conclude that Geoplaninae 1 was introduced into the study area, although it is only known from the study site. Endeavouria septemlineata, an active predator of the exotic giant African snail, is originally known from Hawaii. This land flatworm species was observed repeatedly in Brazilian anthropogenic areas, and this is the first report of the species in relatively well preserved native forest, which may be evidence of an ongoing adaptive process. Monitoring of its geographic spread and its ecological role would be a good practice for preventing potential damaging effects, since it also feeds on native mollusk fauna, as we observed in lab conditions.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Is affective learning really resistant to extinction? Stimulus ratings and affective priming give different answers

Affective learning, the learning of likes and dislikes, is proposed to differ from signal learning, the learning of relationships between events. However, affective learning research varies in the methodology used, and in addition, researchers concerned primarily with affective learning tend to use different paradigms from those concerned with signal learning. The current research used an affective priming task in addition to verbal ratings to assess changes in the valence of neutral geometric shapes in an aversive differential conditioning procedure. After acquisition, affective learning was present as indexed by ratings and affective priming, whereas after extinction, affective learning remained significant only in the ratings. This study suggests that different measures of affective learning may be differentially sensitive to valence, which has implications for studies that employ verbal ratings as the sole measure of affective learning. Moreover, there is no evidence from the current study that affective learning differs from signal learning.