'The Aftermath of the Annan Plan Referendums' Cross-Voting Moderation for Cyprus

This article examines recent developments in the Cyprus negotiations and suggests a number of changes to the proposed electoral system. Specifically, cross-voting and other electoral methods that encourage coalition-building across ethnic communities might add significantly to the functionality of the Annan Plan. Combined with other innovative mechanisms already in the plan, cross-voting could force political parties to seriously take into account the interests and concerns of the two Cypriot communities, an element that is currently missing from both the Turkish Cypriot (TC) and Greek Cypriot (GC) political systems. Special conditions on the island, as well as the way most political parties operated in the critical pre-April 2004 referendum period, suggest the need for this amendment. Although this study respects the consociational logic of the Annan Plan, it supplements consociationalism with elements that foster integration and inter-dependence between the two communities and their voters. The article also reviews the postreferendum developments in Cyprus which might have worrisome future implications, not only for its two communities, but also for EU enlargement in general. Cyprus both holds one of the keys to Turkey's entrance into the EU and is a litmus test for the Euro-Atlantic nexus and its capacity to pacify and integrate ethnically divided societies in Europe and elsewhere.

Emotions and voting in EU referendums

There is an emerging scholarship on the emotional bases of political opinion and behaviour and, in particular, the contrasting implications of two distinct negative emotions - anger and anxiety. I apply the insights in this literature to the previously unresearched realm of the emotional bases of voting in EU referendums. I hypothesise that anxious voters rely on substantive EU issues and angry voters rely on second-order factors relating to domestic politics (partisanship and satisfaction with government). Focusing on the case of Irish voting in the Fiscal Compact referendum, and using data from a representative sample of voters, I find support for the hypotheses and discuss the implications of the findings for our understanding of the emotional conditionality of EU referendum voting. 

Independence referendums: who should vote and who should be offered citizenship?

In this EUDO CITIZENSHIP Forum Debate, several authors consider the interrelations between eligibility criteria for participation in independence referendum (that may result in the creation of a new independent state) and the determination of putative citizenship ab initio (on day one) of such a state. The kick-off contribution argues for resemblance of an independence referendum franchise and of the initial determination of the citizenry, critically appraising the incongruence between the franchise for the 18 September 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and the blueprint for Scottish citizenship ab initio put forward by the Scottish Government in its 'Scotland's Future' White Paper. Contributors to this debate come from divergent disciplines (law, political science, sociology, philosophy). They reflect on and contest the above claims, both generally and in relation to regional settings including (in addition to Scotland) Catalonia/Spain, Flanders/Belgium, Quebec/Canada, Post-Yugoslavia and Puerto-Rico/USA.

Ballot Initiatives, Constitutional Referendums and Effects on Various Groups

Direct legislation in the United States is a subject that has received a great deal of attention recently. A large proportion of this attention however has been focused on the potential for direct legislation to harm minority groups. An example of this negative potential can be seen in a group of ballot propositions that were presented to California voters in the 1990s. These initiatives can all be interpreted as targeting various minority groups in California. As California is the state which makes use of the ballot initiative more frequently than any other, this is a cause for concern. There are however several other factors that make it unclear whether direct legislation will more often lead to negative outcomes for minorities. There is also a noticeable effect of direct democracy generally on political participation. Several studies have found a positive correlation between the extent that a state uses ballot initiatives and referenda with political participation indexes such as voting rates. These findings complicate the negative attention that ballot initiatives have recently received.

Die EU-Volksabstimmungen in Österreich, Finnland, Schweden und Norwegen. Verlauf, Ergebnisse Motive und Folgen = The EU referendums in Austria, Finland, Sweden and Norway. Results, motives and consequences. Institute for Advanced Studies Political Science Series No. 23, 1995

This paper analysis the 1994 EU referenda in Austria, Finland, Sweden and Norway in a comparative perspective. It shows that the results were, to some extent at least, related to how pronounced the respective elite consensus was on the necessity or desirability of EU membership. It also shows that in all cases the main motivation of the Yes voters was economic. The paper goes on to analyse the regional and social variations in voting patterns. In the concluding chapter some of the medium- and longterm effects of the referenda debates and results on Austrian, Finnish and Swedish government policy within the EU are outlined.

Beitrage zur kenntnis des bundnerischen referendums.

Thesis (doctoral)--

Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

Direct Democracy and Regional Integration::Citizens' Perceptions of Treaty Implications and the Irish Reversal on Lisbon

Analyses of voting in European Union referendums typically distinguish between ‘second-order’ effects and the impact of substantive ‘issues’. In order to explain change in referendum outcome, two types of substantive issues are distinguished in this article. Focusing on Irish voting in the Lisbon Treaty referendums and using data from post-referendum surveys, it is found that perceptions of treaty implications outperform underlying attitudes to EU integration in predicting vote choice at both referendums, and perceptions of treaty implications are strong predictors of vote change between the referendums. The findings have broadly positive implications for normative assessments of the usefulness of direct democracy as a tool for legitimising regional integration advance.

Tanzanian scepticism of a militarised East African Federation and underlying military concerns

Attitudes towards a regional military force are of paramount importance when exploring public support for regional integration. Until now, however, scholarly research has not considered the influence of attitudes towards a regional military mechanism in the sub-Saharan African context. Using Afrobarometer data, we demonstrate that military concerns are vital when exploring Tanzanian attitudes towards the proposed political federation of the East African Community (EAC), the East African Federation (EAF). More specifically, opposition to military cooperation strongly influences Tanzanian scepticism of the EAF. This finding is highly relevant given that referendums in the participating member states must be passed to facilitate political integration. Heightened opposition towards military cooperation raises the possibility of the public rejecting a politically integrated EAC. This poses a potential obstacle to the implementation of joint security policies and crucial mechanisms to provide a more stable region at large. We account for alternative explanations of Tanzanian opinion formation and reflect on the strength of military-orientated concerns for investigating public support for the East African project specifically and regional integration in sub-Saharan Africa more widely.

La démocratie et la Loi sur la clarté : réflexions sur la règle de la majorité dans le cadre d'un référendum

"Mémoire présenté à la faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de maîtrise en droit (LL.M.)"

Les représentations sociales du politique: une analyse sémantique de l'idéologie nationale fédéraliste québécoise durant les deux périodes référendaires

Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons l’étude des représentations sociales du politique dans la presse quotidienne. Notre objet d’étude est le sens de la nation au Québec dans une période historique où la notion idéologique de nation s’avère un cadre de référence en profonde mutation dans de nombreuses sociétés. Plus particulièrement, nous voulons nous situer au centre des tensions à propos de la représentation sociale nationale en prenant comme observatoire un travail idéologique fédéraliste par des Québécois, qui à la fois se posent comme promoteurs de la nation, et visent une intégration dans un autre espace national et juridique : le Canada. Les résultats de cette étude qualitative sont issus d’une analyse sémantique du discours éditorial du journal La Presse. Nous avons ainsi examiné les différentes catégories de connaissance mobilisées lors de l’évocation de l’espace national, ainsi que la façon dont elles sont organisées au sein du discours lors des deux périodes référendaires, soit en 1980 et 1995. C’est donc dans le cadre d’une sociologie de la connaissance journalistique que nous menons cette étude. Le discours social, à partir de l’étude des théories des représentations sociales et de la sociologie des contenus médiatiques, ne peut se considérer qu’à travers l’ensemble des relations sociales dont il est le produit. Nous nous attachons ici à définir d’une part les spécificités du discours éditorial, et d’autre part les différentes catégories de connaissances utilisées dans notre corpus qui font sens. On perçoit alors, grâce à une description diachronique, l’évolution des représentations sociales ayant a trait à l’espace national québécois entre les deux périodes étudiées. Après avoir défini ce dont on parle lorsqu’il est question de l’espace national, nous nous emploierons à analyser la façon dont ce discours est organisé. Ainsi, nous mettons en avant d’une part, les différentes formes discursives, rhétoriques et argumentatives, mises en place dans le but de persuader et de justifier l’action (le rejet des deux référendums, et l’adhésion aux promesses de renouvellement du fédéralisme), et d’autre part la logique discursive mobilisée consistant à placer la nation comme un objet politique rationnel ou non. En effet, le discours éditorial nous permet de mettre au jour une organisation cognitive de la connaissance, qui à quelques nuances près, est structurée de façon manichéenne entre le rationnel (l’éditorialiste, le fédéralisme, l’économique, l’universalisme, la raison de sens commun) et l’irrationnel (le souverainisme, ses dirigeants n’étant que des rêveurs et des passionnés), se plaçant dès lors dans un rapport de communication politique, plus proche de la propagande que de l’exemplarité réflexive que pose le discours éditorial.