Dynamic Criteria: a Longitudinal Analysis of Professional Basketball Players" Outcomes

This paper describes the fluctuations of temporal criteria dynamics in the context of professional sport. Specifically, we try to verify the underlying deterministic patterns in the outcomes of professional basketball players. We use a longitudinal approach based on the analysis of the outcomes of 94 basketball players over ten years, covering practically players" entire career development. Time series were analyzed with techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. These techniques analyze the underlying patterns in outcomes without previous shape assumptions (linear or nonlinear). These techniques are capable of detecting an intermediate situation between randomness and determinism, called chaos. So they are very useful for the study of dynamic criteria in organizations. We have found most players (88.30%) have a deterministic pattern in their outcomes, and most cases are chaotic (81.92%). Players with chaotic patterns have higher outcomes than players with linear patterns. Moreover, players with power forward and center positions achieve better results than other players. The high number of chaotic patterns found suggests caution when appraising individual outcomes, when coaches try to find the appropriate combination of players to design a competitive team, and other personnel decisions. Management efforts must be made to assume this uncertainty.

An examination of the dynamic validities of cognitive ability and personality measures with performance

Prior research shows that both cognitive ability (Schmidt & Hunter, 1998) and personality measures (Poropat, 2009; Hough & Furnham, 2003) are valid predictors of job performance. The dynamic nature of the relationships between cognitive ability and personality measures with performance over time spent on the job is less understood and thus this paper explores their relationships. Although there is much research to suggest that the predictive relationship between cognitive ability and performance decreases over years of tenure (e.g., Hulin, Henry, & Noon, 1990), other research suggests that the relationship between cognitive ability and performance will increase over time (Kolz, McFarland, & Silverman, 1988). In regard to personality, this study provides a critical test of two competing theories. The first position holds that the validity of personality degrades over time. Support for this position comes from the “ubiquitous” nature of the simplex pattern in individual differences (Humphreys, 1985). It follows that personality validities should perform like cognitive ability in this respect, and thus decline over time. In contrast to this viewpoint, the alternative position contends that the predictive relationship between personality variables and performance increases over time, with the correlation becoming larger in magnitude and more positive in direction over years of tenure. The results of this study support the latter position; personality validities predicted long term performance outcomes.

Variable threshold algorithm for division of labor analyzed as a dynamical system

Division of labor is a widely studied aspect of colony behavior of social insects. Division of labor models indicate how individuals distribute themselves in order to perform different tasks simultaneously. However, models that study division of labor from a dynamical system point of view cannot be found in the literature. In this paper, we define a division of labor model as a discrete-time dynamical system, in order to study the equilibrium points and their properties related to convergence and stability. By making use of this analytical model, an adaptive algorithm based on division of labor can be designed to satisfy dynamic criteria. In this way, we have designed and tested an algorithm that varies the response thresholds in order to modify the dynamic behavior of the system. This behavior modification allows the system to adapt to specific environmental and collective situations, making the algorithm a good candidate for distributed control applications. The variable threshold algorithm is based on specialization mechanisms. It is able to achieve an asymptotically stable behavior of the system in different environments and independently of the number of individuals. The algorithm has been successfully tested under several initial conditions and number of individuals.

Criteria for acceptable representation of airplane dynamic responses in simulators used for pilot training.

"Contract no. N61339-1146."

Parallel Dynamic Optimization of Steel Risers

This paper addresses the use of optimization techniques in the design of a steel riser. Two methods are used: the genetic algorithm, which imitates the process of natural selection, and the simulated annealing, which is based on the process of annealing of a metal. Both of them are capable of searching a given solution space for the best feasible riser configuration according to predefined criteria. Optimization issues are discussed, such as problem codification, parameter selection, definition of objective function, and restrictions. A comparison between the results obtained for economic and structural objective functions is made for a case study. Optimization method parallelization is also addressed. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4001955]

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Simultaneous steady state and dynamic design of process systems using structural indicators

The simultaneous design of the steady-state and dynamic performance of a process has the ability to satisfy much more demanding dynamic performance criteria than the design of dynamics only by the connection of a control system. A method for designing process dynamics based on the use of a linearised systems' eigenvalues has been developed. The eigenvalues are associated with system states using the unit perturbation spectral resolution (UPSR), characterising the dynamics of each state. The design method uses a homotopy approach to determine a final design which satisfies both steady-state and dynamic performance criteria. A highly interacting single stage forced circulation evaporator system, including control loops, was designed by this method with the goal of reducing the time taken for the liquid composition to reach steady-state. Initially the system was successfully redesigned to speed up the eigenvalue associated with the liquid composition state, but this did not result in an improved startup performance. Further analysis showed that the integral action of the composition controller was the source of the limiting eigenvalue. Design changes made to speed up this eigenvalue did result in an improved startup performance. The proposed approach provides a structured way to address the design-control interface, giving significant insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system such that a systematic design or redesign of an existing system can be undertaken with confidence.

The insulin hypoglycemia test: Hypoglycemic criteria and reproducibility

The insulin hypoglycemia test (IHT) is widely regarded as the 'gold standard' for dynamic stimulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. This study aimed to investigate the temporal relationship between a rapid decrease in plasma glucose and the corresponding rise in plasma adenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), and to assess the reproducibility of hormone responses to hypoglycemia in normal humans. Ten normal subjects underwent IHTs, using an insulin dose of 0.15 U/kg. Of these, eight had a second IHT (IHT2) and three went on to a third test (IHT3). Plasma ACTH and cortisol were measured at 15-min intervals and, additionally, in four IHT2s and the three IHT3s, ACTH was measured at 2.5- or 5-min intervals. Mean glucose nadirs and mean ACTH and cortisol responses were not significantly different between IHT1, IHT2 and IHT3. Combined data from all 21 tests showed the magnitude of the cortisol responses, but not the ACTH responses, correlated significantly with the depth and duration of hypoglycemia. All subjects achieved glucose concentrations of of less than or equal to 1.6 mmol/l before any detectable rise in ACTH occurred. In the seven tests performed with frequent sampling, an ACTH rise never preceeded the glucose nadir, but occurred at the nadir, or up to 15 min after. On repeat testing, peak ACTH levels varied markedly within individuals, whereas peak cortisol levels were more reproducible (mean coefficient of variation 7%). In conclusion, hypoglycemia of less than or equal to 1.6 mmol/l was sufficient to cause stimulation of the HPA axis in all 21 IHTs conducted in normal subjects. Nonetheless; our data cannot reveal whether higher glucose nadirs would stimulate increased HPA axis activity in all subjects. Overall, the cortisol response to hypoglycemia is more reproducible than the ACTH response but, in an individual subject, the difference in peak cortisol between two IHTs may exceed 100 nmol/l.

Focal Malignant Liver Lesions: Diagnosis by Dynamic Incremental CT, Early Phase

The purpose of our study was to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic incremental bolus-enhanced conventional CT (DICT) with intravenous contrast administration, early phase, in the diagnosis of malignancy of focal liver lesions. A total of 122 lesions were selected in 74 patients considering the following criteria: lesion diameter 10 mm or more, number of lesions less than six per study, except in multiple angiomatosis and the existence of a valid criteria of definitive diagnosis. Lesions were categorized into seven levels of diagnostic confidence of malignancy compared with the definitive diagnosis for acquisition of a receiver-operator-characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the technique. Forty-six and 70 lesions were correctly diagnosed as malignant and benign, respectively; there were 2 false-positive and 4 false-negative diagnoses of malignancy and the sensitivity and specificity obtained were 92 and 97%. The DICT early phase was confirmed as a highly accurate method in the characterization and diagnosis of malignancy of focal liver lesions, requiring an optimal technical performance and judicious analysis of existing semiological data.

Dynamic stiffness of the piled foundation of a onshore wind turbine

One of today's biggest concerns is the increase of energetic needs, especially in the developed countries. Among various clean energies, wind energy is one of the technologies that assume greater importance on the sustainable development of humanity. Despite wind turbines had been developed and studied over the years, there are phenomena that haven't been yet fully understood. This work studies the soil-structure interaction that occurs on a wind turbine's foundation composed by a group of piles that is under dynamic loads caused by wind. This problem assumes special importance when the foundation is implemented on locations where safety criteria are very demanding, like the case of a foundation mounted on a dike. To the phenomenon of interaction between two piles and the soil between them it's given the name of pile-soil-pile interaction. It is known that such behavior is frequency dependent, and therefore, on this work evaluation of relevant frequencies for the intended analysis is held. During the development of this thesis, two methods were selected in order to assess pile-soil-pile interaction, being one of analytical nature and the other of numerical origin. The analytical solution was recently developed and its called Generalized pile-soil-pile theory, while for the numerical method the commercial nite element software PLAXIS 3D was used. A study of applicability of the numerical method is also done comparing the given solution by the nite element methods with a rigorous solution widely accepted by the majority of the authors.

Dynamic group formation in mobile computer supported collaborative learning environment

Forming suitable learning groups is one of the factors that determine the efficiency of collaborative learning activities. However, only a few studies were carried out to address this problem in the mobile learning environments. In this paper, we propose a new approach for an automatic, customized, and dynamic group formation in Mobile Computer Supported Collaborative Learning (MCSCL) contexts. The proposed solution is based on the combination of three types of grouping criteria: learner’s personal characteristics, learner’s behaviours, and context information. The instructors can freely select the type, the number, and the weight of grouping criteria, together with other settings such as the number, the size, and the type of learning groups (homogeneous or heterogeneous). Apart from a grouping mechanism, the proposed approach represents a flexible tool to control each learner, and to manage the learning processes from the beginning to the end of collaborative learning activities. In order to evaluate the quality of the implemented group formation algorithm, we compare its Average Intra-cluster Distance (AID) with the one of a random group formation method. The results show a higher effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in forming homogenous and heterogeneous groups compared to the random method.

DINAMICA MICROBIANA Y CALIDAD DE LA MATERIA ORGANICA DEL SUELO COMO INDICADORES DE SUSTENTABILIDAD EN EL CHACO ARIDO DE LA PROVINCIA DE CORDOBA Microbial dynamic and organic matter quality as indicators of soil sustainability in Dry Chaco of Córdoba Province

Se propone analizar el efecto del uso productivo en el Chaco Árido de la provincia de Córdoba, mediante la aplicación de indicadores de sustentabilidad relacionados con la calidad de la materia orgánica y la liberación de nutrientes en el suelo, con la finalidad de aportar a un tema de suma interes para la provincia de Córdoba como es la formulación de criterios y pautas de manejo para la implementación de la Ley de Bosques (N° 26331). Se trabajará en la localidad de San Miguel en el departamento Pocho, en un sitio de bosque no disturbado y en tres sistemas productivos: desmonte selectivo con implantación de pasturas; desmonte total con agricultura bajo riego y desmonte total sobrepastoreado. En cada sitio se medirá “in situ” la emisión de CO2 y se tomaran muestras de suelo a las que se les determinará: a) contenido de materia orgánica total (MO), b) contenido de sustancias húmicas (SH), diferenciando ácidos húmicos (AH) y fúlvicos (AF), c) abundancia y actividad de microorganismos nitrificadores y d) propiedades químicas de los AH y AF. Se calcularán los siguientes índices de sustentabilidad a) materia orgánica biodisponible (MOB=MO–SH); b) índice de humificación (IH=SH/MO); c) tipo de humus (TH=AF/AH; d) índice de mineralización de C (IMC=CO2/MO); e) índice de nitrificación (IN=actividad/abundancia); y f) índice de estabilidad de las fracciones humificadas: compuestos aromáticos/ alifáticos. Los datos serán analizados estadísticamente mediante ANOVA y comparación de medias por LSD (P<0.05) y tests multivariados. We proposed analyze the effect of land use in Arid Chaco of Cordoba province, using sustainability indicators related to organic matter quality and nutrient release in soil, with the aim to formulate management criteria for the implementation of the Ley de Bosques (N° 26331) in Córdoba province. The study will be conducted in San Miguel village in Pocho department, in one undisturbed forest site and three productive systems: selective clearing with grass sowing; total clearing with irrigation agriculture and total clearing with overgrazed. In each site "in situ" CO2 emission will be measured and soil samples will be taken, in which the following parameters will be determined: a) total organic matter content (MO), b) humic substances content (SH), in humic acids (AH) and fulvic acids (AF), c) abundance and activity of nitrifier microorganisms and d) chemical properties of AH and AF. The sustainability indexes will be calculated: biodisponible organic matter (MOB=MO–SH); b) humification index (IH=SH/MO); c) humus type (TH=AF/AH; d) C mineralization index (IMC=CO2/MO); e) nitrifying index (IN=activity/abundance); and f) humic fractions stability index: aromatic/aliphatic compounds. The data will be statistically analyzed by ANOVA and the means will be compared by LSD (P<0.05) and multivariate tests.

Encoding dysfunctions in a dynamic-static paradigm for visuospatial working memory in first-episode psychosis patients: a 2-year follow-up study.

Aim: To investigate static and dynamic visuospatial working memory (VSWM) processes in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients and explore the validity of such measures as specific trait markers of schizophrenia. Methods: Twenty FEP patients and 20 age-, sex-, laterality- and education-matched controls carried out a dynamic and static VSWM paradigm. At 2-year follow up 13 patients met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (of Mental Health Disorders) - Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) criteria for schizophrenia, 1 for bipolar disorder, 1 for brief psychotic episode and 5 for schizotypal personality disorder. Results: Compared with controls, the 20 FEP patients showed severe impairment in the dynamic VSWM condition but much less impairment in the static condition. No specific bias in stimulus selection was detected in the two tasks. Two-year follow-up evaluations suggested poorer baseline scores on the dynamic task clearly differentiated the 13 FEP patients who developed schizophrenia from the seven who did not. Conclusions: Results suggest deficits in VSWM in FEP patients. Specific exploratory analyses further suggest that deficit in monitoring-manipulation VSWM processes, especially involved in our dynamic VSWM task, can be a reliable marker of schizophrenia.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.