Using the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to resolve ABox inconsistencies

Automated ontology population using information extraction algorithms can produce inconsistent knowledge bases. Confidence values assigned by the extraction algorithms may serve as evidence in helping to repair inconsistencies. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is a formalism, which allows appropriate interpretation of extractors’ confidence values. This chapter presents an algorithm for translating the subontologies containing conflicts into belief propagation networks and repairing conflicts based on the Dempster-Shafer plausibility.

The optimum quantity of money: Theory and evidence

In this paper we propose a simple and general model for computing the Ramsey optimal inflation tax, which includes several models from the previous literature as special cases. We show that it cannot be claimed that the Friedman rule is always optimal (or always non--optimal) on theoretical grounds. The Friedman rule is optimal or not, depending on conditions related to the shape of various relevant functions. One contribution of this paper is to relate these conditions to {\it measurable} variables such as the interest rate or the consumption elasticity of money demand. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money when there are economies of scale in the demand for money (the scale elasticity is smaller than one) and/or when money is required for the payment of consumption or wage taxes. We find that it tends to be optimal to tax money more heavily when the interest elasticity of money demand is small. We present empirical evidence on the parameters that determine the optimal inflation tax. Calibrating the model to a variety of empirical studies yields a optimal nominal interest rate of less than 1\%/year, although that finding is sensitive to the calibration.

The Effect of Public Spending on Consumption: Reconciling Theory and Evidence

Recent empirical evidence from vector autoregressions (VARs) suggests that public spending shocks increase (crowd in) private consumption. Standard general equilibrium models predict the opposite. We show that a standard real business cycle (RBC) model in which public spending is chosen optimally can rationalize the crowding-in effect documented in the VAR literature. When such a model is used as a data-generating process, a VAR estimated using the artificial data yields a positive consumption response to an increase in public spending, consistent with the empirical findings. This result holds regardless of whether private and public purchases are complements or substitutes.

Finite size effects on the electrical properties of sol–gel synthesized CoFe2O4 powders: deviation from Maxwell–Wagner theory and evidence of surface polarization effects

Fine particles of cobalt ferrite were synthesized by the sol–gel method. Subsequent heat treatment at different temperatures yielded cobalt ferrites having different grain sizes. X-ray diffraction studies were carried out to elucidate the structure of all the samples. Dielectric permittivity and ac conductivity of all the samples were evaluated as a function of frequency, temperature and grain size. The variation of permittivity and ac conductivity with frequency reveals that the dispersion is due to Maxwell–Wagner type interfacial polarization in general, with a noted variation from the expected behaviour for the cold synthesized samples. High permittivity and conductivity for small grains were explained on the basis of the correlated barrier-hopping model

Features of the Atlantic diet and its healthiness: Theory and evidence from social science

In order to understand diets, why and how they change and can be influenced, it is important to understand how food choices are made. The has been the subject of, considerable study within many of the social science disciplines and the humanities. The paper draws on the theoretical and empirical work of psychologists, sociologists, economists, market researchers, anthropologists, geographers and historians to understand better the forces behind food choice, derive some general empirical messages from the literature, to shed light on food choice in a European context and to address the question of whether there is, or has been, a recognisably Atlantic diet. The paper proceeds to analyse the characteristics of the food consumption patterns in the Atlantic diet countries, examines whether their food consumption patterns are homogenous (i.e. similar across the countries of this group), whether they are specific (i.e. different from the ones in other country groups) and finally evaluates the nutritional composition of the Atlantic diet against the WHO/FAO recommendations for a healthy and wholesome diet.

Commodity futures prices: more evidence on forecast power, risk premia and the theory of storage

In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying parameters or structural breaks in these pricing relationships. Compared to previous studies, we find stronger evidence of seasonality in the basis, which supports the theory of storage. The power of the basis to forecast subsequent price changes is also strengthened, while results on the presence of a risk premium are inconclusive. In addition, we show that the forecasting power of commodity futures cannot be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality. We find that in most cases where structural breaks occur, only changes in the intercepts and not the slopes are detected, illustrating that the forecast power of the basis is stable over different economic environments.

The determinants of a cross market arbitrage opportunity: theory and evidence for the European bond market

This paper examines the determinants of cross-platform arbitrage profits. We develop a structural model that enables us to decompose the likelihood of an arbitrage opportunity into three distinct factors: the fixed cost to trade the opportunity, the level at which one of the platforms delays a price update and the impact of the order flow on the quoted prices (inventory and asymmetric information effects). We then investigate the predictions from the theoretical model for the European Bond market with the estimation of a probit model. Our main finding is that the results found in the empirical part corroborate strongly the predictions from the structural model. The event of a cross market arbitrage opportunity has a certain degree of predictability where an optimal ex ante scenario is represented by a low level of spreads on both platforms, a time of the day close to the end of trading hours and a high volume of trade.

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development: theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements to analyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our main hypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitive currencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the anufacturing sector in the economy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existence of increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating echnological change and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paper is empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chile and Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currency overvaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is being inflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demand and prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrial sector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrialization if there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

The economics of demand-led growth: theory and evidence for Brazil

Includes bibliography

Evidence against the exon theory of genes derived from the triose-phosphate isomerase gene.

The exon theory of genes proposes that the introns of protein-encoding nuclear genes are remnants of the DNA spacers between ancient minigenes. The discovery of an intron at a predicted position in the triose-phosphate isomerase (EC 5.3.1.1) gene of Culex mosquitoes has been hailed as an evidential pillar of the theory. We have found that that intron is also present in Aedes mosquitoes, which are closely related to Culex, but not in the phylogenetically more distant Anopheles, nor in the fly Calliphora vicina, nor in the moth Spodoptera littoralis. The presence of this intron in Culex and Aedes is parsimoniously explained as the result of an insertion in a recent common ancestor of these two species rather than as the remnant of an ancient intron. The absence of the intron in 19 species of very diverse organisms requires at least 10 independent evolutionary losses in order to be consistent with the exon theory.

The theory of the law of evidence as established in the United States, and of the conduct of the examination of witnesses.

Mode of access: Internet.

The effect of deficits on prices of financial assets : theory and evidence /

"March 1984."