Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study.

To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity. Multicenter cross-sectional study. Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010. A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications. The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women. The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome. Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death). Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

Contribution Of Antepartum And Intrapartum Hemorrhage To The Burden Of Maternal Near Miss And Death In A National Surveillance Study

Objective To evaluate the occurrence of severe obstetric complications associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage among women from the Brazilian Network for Surveillance of Severe Maternal Morbidity.Design Multicenter cross-sectional study.Setting Twenty-seven obstetric referral units in Brazil between July 2009 and June 2010.Population A total of 9555 women categorized as having obstetric complications.Methods The occurrence of potentially life-threatening conditions, maternal near miss and maternal deaths associated with antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was evaluated. Sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics and the use of criteria for management of severe bleeding were also assessed in these women.Main outcome measures The prevalence ratios with their respective 95% confidence intervals adjusted for the cluster effect of the design, and multiple logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors independently associated with the occurrence of severe maternal outcome.Results Antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage occurred in only 8% (767) of women experiencing any type of obstetric complication. However, it was responsible for 18.2% (140) of maternal near miss and 10% (14) of maternal death cases. On multivariate analysis, maternal age and previous cesarean section were shown to be independently associated with an increased risk of severe maternal outcome (near miss or death).Conclusion Severe maternal outcome due to antepartum and intrapartum hemorrhage was highly prevalent among Brazilian women. Certain risk factors, maternal age and previous cesarean delivery in particular, were associated with the occurrence of bleeding.

What are the similarities between stress, sudden cardiac death in Gallus gallus and sudden unexpected death in people with epilepsy

Individuals with epilepsy are at higher risk of sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), responsible for 7.5% to 17% of all deaths in epilepsy. Many factors are current associated with SUDEP and possible effect of stress and cardiac arrhythmia are still not clear. Sudden death syndrome (SDS) in chickens is a disease characterized by an acute death of well-nourished and seeming healthy Gallus gallus after abrupt and brief flapping of their wings, similar to an epileptic seizure, with an incidence estimated as 0.5 to 5% in broiler chickens. A variety of nutritional and environmental factors have been included: but the exactly etiology of SDS is unknown. Studies had suggested that the hearts of broiler chickens are considerably more susceptible to arrhythmias and stress may induce ventricular arrhythmia and thus, sudden cardiac death. In this way, SDS in Gallus gallus could be an interesting model to study SUDEP.

Low-Level Laser Irradiation (InGaAlP-660 nm) Increases Fibroblast Cell Proliferation and Reduces Cell Death in a Dose-Dependent Manner

Background and Objective: Impaired cell metabolism and increased cell death in fibroblast cells are physiological features of chronic tendinopathy. Although several studies have shown that low-level laser therapy (LLLT) at certain parameters has a biostimulatory effect on fibroblast cells, it remains uncertain if LLLT effects depend on the physiological state. Study Design/Material and Methods: High-metabolic immortal cell culture and primary human keloid fibroblast cell culture were used in this study. Trypan blue exclusion and the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) test were used to determine cell viability and proliferation. Propidium iodide stain was used for cell-cycle analysis by flow cytometry. Laser irradiation was performed daily on three consecutive days with a GaAlAs 660-nm laser (mean output: 50 mW, spot size 2 mm(2), power density = 2.5 W/cm(2)) and a typical LLLT dose and a high LLLT dose (irradiation times: 60 or 420 s; fluences: 150 or 1050 J/cm(2); energy delivered: 3 or 21 J). Results: Primary fibroblast cell culture from human keloids irradiated with 3 J showed significant proliferation by the trypan blue exclusion test (p < 0.05), whereas the 3T3 cell culture showed no difference using this method. Propidium iodide staining flow cytometry data showed a significant decrease in the percentage of cells being in proliferative phases of the cell cycle (S/g(2)/M) when irradiated with 21 J in both cell types (hypodiploid cells increased). Conclusions: Our data support the hypothesis that the physiological state of the cells affects the LLLT results, and that high-metabolic rate and short-cell-cycle 3T3 cells are not responsive to LLLT. In conclusion, LLLT with a dose of 3 J reduced cell death significantly, but did not stimulate cell cycle. A LLLT dose of 21 J had negative effects on the cells, as it increased cell death and inhibited cell proliferation.

Incidence of dementia and cause of death in elderly Japanese emigrants to Brazil before World War II

In 1997 we examined the prevalence of dementia among the Japanese elderly immigrants living in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (n = 166). Herein, we followed up on these subjects for causes of death and dementia incidence. We were able to contact 108 subjects: 54 were already dead. The most common cause of death was cardiac disease. For dementia, 31.6% of the dead subjects were found to have developed dementia before they died, and 20.8% of the living subjects were demented. As for the baseline the clinical dementia rating (CDR), 20.8% of CDR 0 and 50.0% of CDR 0.5 subjects developed dementia in the dead group; whereas in the living group, 23.9% of CDR 0 and 52.6% of CDR 0.5 developed dementia. As a whole, the incidence was 34.2% per 1000 person-years. Cardiac disease as the most common cause of death was probably due to the higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus. Compared with the previous study, the lower incidence of dementia from the CDR 0.5 group may have been due to a higher mortality rate. This is the first study on the incidence of dementia in elderly Japanese immigrants in Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sudden death in psychiatric patients

Background The present study investigated histories of prior psychiatric treatment in cases of sudden death reported to the coroner Methods A matching survey linked the register of deaths reported to the coroner with a comprehensive statewide psychiatric case register covering both inpatient and community-based services. Results Sudden death was five times higher in people with histories of psychiatric contact. Suicide accounted for part of this excess mortality but deaths from natural causes and accidents were also elevated. Schizophrenic and affective disorders had similar suicide rates. Comorbid substance misuse doubled the risk of sudden death in affective and schizophrenic disorders. Conclusions The rates of sudden death are sufficiently elevated to raise questions about current priorities in mental health care. There is a need both for greater attention to suicide risk, most notably among young people with schizophrenia, to the early detection of cardiovascular disorders and to the vigorous management of comorbid substance misuse.

Altered adhesion, proliferation and death in neural cultures from adults with schizophrenia

The causes of schizophrenia are unknown, but there is evidence linking subtle deviations in neural development with schizophrenia. Embryonic brain development cannot be studied in an adult with schizophrenia, but neurogenesis and early events in neuronal differentiation can be investigated throughout adult life in the human olfactory epithelium. Our past research has demonstrated that neuronal cultures can be derived from biopsy of the human adult olfactory epithelium. In the present study, we examined mechanisms related to neurogenesis and neuronal differentiation in adults with schizophrenia versus well controls. Forty biopsies were collected under local anaesthesia from ten individuals with DSM III-R schizophrenia and ten age- and sex-matched well controls. All patients, except one, were receiving antipsychotic medication at the time of the biopsy, Immunostaining for neuronal markers indicated that neurogenesis occurred in the biopsies from both patients and controls since all contained cells expressing tubulin and/or olfactory marker protein. The major findings of this study are: 1. biopsies from patients with schizophrenia showed a significantly reduced ability to attach to the culture slide: 29.9% of patient biopsies attached compared to 73.5% of control biopsies; 2. biopsies from patients with schizophrenia had a significantly greater proportion of cells undergoing mitosis: 0.69% in the patients compared to 0.29% in the controls; and 3. dopamine (10 mu M) significantly increased the proportion of apoptotic cells in the control cultures but significantly decreased the proportion in patients' cultures. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men

Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.

Unexplained sudden death in patients on the waiting list for renal transplantation

Background. The incidence of unexplained sudden death (SD) and the factors involved in its occurrence in patients with chronic kidney disease are not well known. Methods. We investigated the incidence and the role of co-morbidities in unexplained SD in 1139 haemodialysis patients on the renal transplant waiting list. Results. Forty-four patients died from SD of undetermined causes (20% of all deaths; 3.9 deaths/1000 patients per year), while 178 died from other causes and 917 survived. SD patients were older and likely to have diabetes, hypertension, past/present cardiovascular disease, higher left ventricular mass index, and lower ejection fraction. Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular disease of any type was the only independent predictor of SD (P = 0.0001, HR = 2.13, 95% CI 1.46-3.22). Alterations closely associated with ischaemic heart disease like angina, previous myocardial infarction and altered myocardial scan were not independent predictors of SD. The incidence of unexplained SD in these haemodialysis patients is high and probably a consequence of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Conclusions. Factors influencing SD in dialysis patients are not substantially different from factors in the general population. The role played by ischaemic heart disease in this context needs further evaluation.

Immediate early gene expression and delayed cell death in limbic areas of the rat brain after kainic acid treatment and recovery in the cold

Systemic injection of kainic acid (KA) results in characteristic behaviors and programmed cell death in some regions of the rat brain. We used KA followed by recovery at 4 degrees C to restrict damage to limbic structures and compared patterns of immediate early gene (IEG) expression and associated DNA binding activity in these damaged areas with that in spared brain regions. Male Wistar rats were injected with BA (12 mg/kg, ip) and kept at 4 degrees C for 5 h. This treatment reduced the severity of behaviors and restricted damage (observed by Nissl staining) to the CA1 and CA3 regions of the hippocampus and an area including the entorhinal cortex. DNA laddering, characteristic of apoptosis, was first evident in the hippocampus and the entorhinal cortex 18 and 22 h after RA, respectively. The pattern of IEG mRNA induction fell into three classes: IEGs that were induced in both damaged and spared areas (c-fos, fos B, jun B, and egr-1), IEGs that were induced specifically in the damaged areas (fra-2 and c-jun), and an IEG that was significantly induced by saline injection and/or the cold treatment (jun D). The pattern of immunoreactivity closely followed that of mRNA expression. Binding to the AP-1 and EGR DNA consensus sequences increased in all three regions studied. This study describes a unique modification of the animal model of ICA-induced neurotoxicity which may prove a useful tool for dissecting the molecular cascade that ultimately results in programmed cell death. (C) 1997 Academic Press.