Evaluating Risks of Dam-Reservoir Systems Using Efficient Importance Sampling

The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

Study of seasonal plankton communities changes in the Karoun dam reservoir and their relationship with water quality parameters

This study was under taken at Karoun Lake Dam No.4. (Southwest of Iran). Water samples were collected from March 2012 to February 2013 in three selected silts. Environmental parameters and chlorophyll a concentration were measured, as well as identification and abundance of Phytoplankton communities were studied. According to this study, 30 species of Phytoplankton were identified at four seasons. Most abundance was related to the phyla Bcillariphyta (17 species), Chlorophyta (6 species), Crysophyra (4 species), Dinophyta (2 species) and Cyanophyta (1 species) respectively. The results showed, the maximum rate of chlorophyll a concentration was measured in the warm with minimum level measured in the cold months. The rate of chlorophyll a concentration showed an oligotrophic condition in the lake of karoon 4 dam. positive significant correlation were seen between the parameters of COD,NO3,temperature, pH, turbidity, chlorophyll a and phytoplankton abundance (P<0.01). The chlorophyll a concentration and phytoplankton community had a significant negative correlation with transparency (-P < 0.01). According to this research, 4 phyla of zooplankton was identified, include Rotifera, Protozoa, Cladocera and Copepoda. Overal 43 species were identified at four seasons. Most abundance was related to the phyla Rotifera (27 species), Copepoda (7 species), Cladocera (5 species) and Protozoa (4 species) respectively. The chlorophyll a concentration, amount of phosphate and zooplankton indicator spesies, showed an oligotrophic condition in the lake of karoon 4 dam. A positive significant correlation was seen between all groups of zooplanktons abundance and temperature, as well as chlorophyll a concentration. (P<0.01) , whereas, there was negative correlation whith no significant between DO and zooplankton communities (P>0.05).

DISTRIBUTION OF Cr, Pb, Cu, Cd AND Zn IN SEDIMENTS OF THE DOBCZYCE DAM RESERVOIR (SOUTHERN POLAND)

Sediments play a fundamental role in the behaviour of contaminants in aquatic systems. Various processes in sediments, eg adsorption-desorption, oxidation-reduction, ion exchange or biological activities, can cause accumulation or release of metals and anions from the bottom of reservoirs, and have been recently studied in Polish waters [1-3]. Sediment samples from layer A: (1 divided by 6 cm depth in direct contact with bottom water); layer B: (7 divided by 12 cm depth moderate contact); and layer C: (12+ cm depth, in theory an inactive layer) were collected in September 2007 from six sites representing different types of hydrological conditions along the Dobczyce Reservoir (Fig. l). Water depths at the sampling points varied from 3.5 to 21 m. We have focused on studying the distribution and accumulation of several heavy metals (Cr, Pb, Cd, Cu and Zn) in the sediments. The surface, bottom and pore water (extracted from sediments by centrifugation) samples were also collected. Possible relationships between the heavy-metal distribution in sediments and the sediment characteristics (mineralogy, organic matter) as well as the Fe, Mn and Ca content of sediments, have been studied. The 02 concentrations in water samples were also measured. The heavy metals in sediments ranged from 19.0 to 226.3 mg/kg of dry mass (ppm). The results show considerable variations in heavy-metal concentrations between the 6 stations, but not in the individual layers (A, B, C). These variations are related to the mineralogy and chemical composition of the sediments and their pore waters.

Tendency towards homogenization in fish assemblages in the cascade reservoir system of the Tiete river basin, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Economic evaluation of reservoir system accomplishments /

Mode of access: Internet.

Reservoir system analysis, conservation : Hydrologic Engineering Center computer program 23-J2-L253.

At head of cover title: Generalized computer program.

Fifty years of reservoir fisheries in Mettur Dam, India: some lessons

The paper outlines briefly the history of the fishery in a dam reservoir in India. The reservoir was very productive in its early years, with support from a seed farm, ice plant, cold storage and regulated entry of fishery. However, once entry restrictions were relaxed and closed fishing seasons no longer enforced, the yield of fish from the reservoir declined.

Geochemical study of the rehabilitation of a shallow anoxic reservoir, in volcanic terrains, under semi-arid climate, in Cape Verde Archipelago

Poilão dam reservoir (Cape Verde Archipelago) is in critical conditions, owing the excessive silting up, the high concentration of nitrates and the pronounced anoxia all over the lake. Considering that the most suitable remediation strategy is the removal of the bottom sediments where nutrients are preferentially concentrated, we have done a geochemical study, in order of evaluating their suitability to agricultural use. Analyses indicate that sediments are rich in a few key nutrients, when compared with parent soils. Thus, adding suitable sediments to nearby degraded soils can improve food crops for smallholder farmers living in close proximity to this system.

Changes in abiotic characteristics of water in the Paranapanema River and three lateral lagoons at mouth zone of the Jurumirim Reservoir during the flood period, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The influence of particles recycling on the geochemistry of sediments in a large tropical dam lake in the Amazonian region, Brazil

The influence of particles recycling on the geochemistry of sediments in a large tropical dam lake in the Amazonian region, Brazil. Article in Journal of South American Earth Sciences 72 · December 2016 DOI: 10.1016/j.jsames.2016.09.012 1st Rita Fonseca 16.85 · Universidade de Évora 2nd Catarina Pinho 3rd Manuela Oliveira 22.6 · Universidade de Évora Abstract As a result of over-erosion of soils, the fine particles, which contain the majority of nutrients, are easily washed away from soils, which become deficient in a host of components, accumulating in lakes. On one hand, the accumulation of nutrients-rich sediments are a problem, as they affect the quality of the overlying water and decrease the water storage capacity of the system; on the other hand, sediments may constitute an important resource, as they are often extremely rich in organic and inorganic nutrients in readily available forms. In the framework of an extensive work on the use of rock related materials to enhance the fertility of impoverish soils, this study aimed to evaluate the role on the nutrients cycle, of particles recycling processes from the watershed to the bottom of a large dam reservoir, at a wet tropical region under high weathering conditions. The study focus on the mineralogical transformations that clay particles undergo from the soils of the drainage basin to their final deposition within the reservoir and their influence in terms of the geochemical characteristics of sediments. We studied the bottom sediments that accumulate in two distinct seasonal periods in Tucuruí reservoir, located in the Amazonian Basin, Brazil, and soils from its drainage basin. The surface layers of sediments in twenty sampling points with variable depths, are representative of the different morphological sections of the reservoir. Nineteen soil samples, representing the main soil classes, were collected near the margins of the reservoir. Sediments and soils were subjected to the same array of physical, mineralogical and geochemical analyses: (1) texture, (2) characterization and semi-quantification of the clay fraction mineralogy and (3) geochemical analysis of the total concentration of major elements, organic compounds (organic C and nitrogen), soluble fractions of nutrients (P and K), exchangeable fractions (cation exchange capacity, exchangeable bases and acidity) and pH(H2O).

Optimal reservoir operation for irrigation of multiple crops using genetic algorithms

This paper presents a genetic algorithm (GA) model for obtaining an optimal operating policy and optimal crop water allocations from an irrigation reservoir. The objective is to maximize the sum of the relative yields from all crops in the irrigated area. The model takes into account reservoir inflow, rainfall on the irrigated area, intraseasonal competition for water among multiple crops, the soil moisture dynamics in each cropped area, the heterogeneous nature of soils. and crop response to the level of irrigation applied. The model is applied to the Malaprabha single-purpose irrigation reservoir in Karnataka State, India. The optimal operating policy obtained using the GA is similar to that obtained by linear programming. This model can be used for optimal utilization of the available water resources of any reservoir system to obtain maximum benefits.

Real-time multipurpose reservoir operation: a case study / Exploitation en temps reacuteel d'un reservoir agrave buts multiples: eacutetude d'un cas

A real-time operational methodology has been developed for multipurpose reservoir operation for irrigation and hydropower generation with application to the Bhadra reservoir system in the state of Karnataka, India. The methodology consists of three phases of computer modelling. In the first phase, the optimal release policy for a given initial storage and inflow is determined using a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model. Streamflow forecasting using an adaptive AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model constitutes the second phase. A real-time simulation model is developed in the third phase using the forecast inflows of phase 2 and the operating policy of phase 1. A comparison of the optimal monthly real-time operation with the historical operation demonstrates the relevance, applicability and the relative advantage of the proposed methodology.

Modeling reservoir irrigation in uncertain hydrologic environment

In a detailed model for reservoir irrigation taking into account the soil moisture dynamics in the root zone of the crops, the data set for reservoir inflow and rainfall in the command will usually be of sufficient length to enable their variations to be described by probability distributions. However, the potential evapotranspiration of the crop itself depends on the characteristics of the crop and the reference evaporation, the quantification of both being associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a mathematical programming model to determine the annual relative yield of crops and to determine its reliability, for a single reservoir meant for irrigation of multiple crops, incorporating variations in inflow, rainfall in the command area, and crop consumptive use. The inflow to the reservoir and rainfall in the reservoir command area are treated as random variables, whereas potential evapotranspiration is modeled as a fuzzy set. The model's application is illustrated with reference to an existing single-reservoir system in Southern India.

Integrated Reservoir Operation Modeling for Irrigation Systems - A Multi-Objective Approach

An integrated reservoir operation model is presented for developing effective operational policies for irrigation water management. In arid and semi-arid climates, owing to dynamic changes in the hydroclimatic conditions within a season, the fixed cropping pattern with conventional operating policies, may have considerable impact on the performance of the irrigation system and may affect the economics of the farming community. For optimal allocation of irrigation water in a season, development of effective mathematical models may guide the water managers in proper decision making and consequently help in reducing the adverse effects of water shortage and crop failure problems. This paper presents a multi-objective integrated reservoir operation model for multi-crop irrigation system. To solve the multi-objective model, a recent swarm intelligence technique, namely elitist-mutated multi-objective particle swarm optimisation (EM-MOPSO) has been used and applied to a case study in India. The method evolves effective strategies for irrigation crop planning and operation policies for a reservoir system, and thereby helps farming community in improving crop benefits and water resource usage in the reservoir command area.