The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.

How does credit access affect children's time allocation? Evidence from rural India

Using a unique dataset obtained from rural Andhra Pradesh, India that contains direct observations of household access to credit and detailed time use, results of this study indicate that credit market failures lead to a substantial reallocation of time used by children for activities such as schooling, household chores, remunerative work, and leisure. The negative effects of credit constraints on schooling amount to a 60% decrease of average schooling time. However, the magnitude of decrease due to credit constraints is about half that of the increase in both domestic and remunerative child labor, the other half appearing to come from a reduction in leisure.

Aspiration levels and educational choices: An experimental study

The explanation of social inequalities in education is still a debated issue in economics. Recent empirical studies tend to downplay the potential role of credit constraint. This article tests a different potential explanation of social inequalities in education, specifically that social differences in aspiration level result in different educational choices. Having existed for a long time in the sociology of education, this explanation can be justified if aspiration levels are seen as reference points in a prospect theory framework. In order to test this explanation, this article applies the method of experimental economics to the issue of education choice and behaviour. One hundred and twenty-nine individuals participated in an experiment in which they had to perform a task over 15 stages grouped in three blocks or levels. In order to continue through the experiment, a minimum level of success was required at the end of each level. Rewards were dependent on the final level successfully reached. At the end of each level, participants could either choose to stop and take their reward or to pay a cost to continue further in order to possibly receive higher rewards. To test the impact of aspiration levels, outcomes were either presented as gains or losses relative to an initial sum. In accordance with the theoretical predictions, participants in the loss framing group choose to go further in the experiment. There was also a significant and interesting gender effect in the loss framing treatment, such that males performed better and reached higher levels.

Restrição ao crédito educacional e investimentos em capital humano no Brasil: evidências através dos retornos à educação

Este artigo procura identificar o papel de restrição ao crédito sobre a decisão de investimento em capital humano no Brasil. Para tanto é usada a hipótese de que custos diretos e de oportunidade de estudar afetam pessoas restritas e não restritas por crédito de forma diferente. Enquanto o custo de oportunidade afeta a todos de forma similar, o custo direto afeta mais fortemente aqueles restritos ao crédito. A partir da estimação de taxas de retorno à educação com o uso de diferentes variáveis instrumentais é possível lançar luz sobre o papel da restrição ao crédito sobre escolaridade. Ao comparar as taxas de retorno utilizando como instrumento a oferta relativa de professores (Proxy dos custos diretos) e salário mediano dos jovens (variável de custo de oportunidade), encontramos uma acentuada diferença no ponto estimado, indicando a existência de efeito da restrição sobre escolaridade. Entretanto, o mau desempenho do segundo instrumento no segundo estágio torna problemática a comparação.

DSGE model with banking sector for emerging economies : estimated using Bayesian methodology for Brazil

Economias emergentes sofrem importantes restrições de crédito quando comparadas com economias desenvolvidas, entretanto, modelos estocásticos de equilíbrio geral (DSGE) desenhados para economias emergentes ainda precisam avançar nessa discussão. Nós propomos um modelo DSGE que pretende representar uma economia emergente com setor bancário baseado em Gerali et al. (2010). Nossa contribuição é considerar uma parcela da renda esperada como colateral para empréstimos das famílias. Nós estimamos o modelo proposto para o Brasil utilizando estimação Bayesiana e encontramos que economias que sofrem restrição de colateral por parte das famílias tendem a sentir o impacto de choques monetários mais rapidamente devido a exposição do setor bancário a mudanças no salário esperado.

Restrição financeira, tangibilidade e capital de giro : como as empresas brasileiras investem

Utilizando dados em Painel sobre mais de 15.000 observações de empresas brasileiras, tanto de capital aberto quanto de capital fechado no período entre 2010 a 2014, o presente estudo examinou a existência de restrição ao crédito e sua relação com investimentos em ativos fixos e o papel desempenhado pelo capital de giro enquanto ferramenta gerencial nas decisões de investimentos em ativos fixos. Para tanto, foram utilizadas duas metodologias-base: o estudo desenvolvido por Almeida e Campello (2007), que inovou ao incluir variáveis que controlam algumas das maiores críticas aos estudos relacionados à restrição ao crédito e o estudo de Ding, Guariglia e Knight (2011) que testou a relação de investimentos em capital de giro com investimentos em ativos fixos. Os resultados encontrados neste trabalho apontam que, de maneira geral, as empresas brasileiras sofrem com restrições ao crédito e também, que as empresas que investem mais em capital de giro demonstram menor sensibilidade do investimento em ativo fixo ao fluxo de caixa, porém, não conseguem traduzir isso em taxas maiores de investimentos.

Impactos do Crédito Rural na produtividade da terra e do trabalho nas regiões brasileiras

O objetivo deste trabalho é mensurar os impactos do crédito rural sobre a produtividade da terra e do trabalho nas grandes regiões brasileiras. A abordagem metodológica é baseada em modelo de restrição de crédito e no método do propensity score. Foram utilizados microdados do Censo Agropecuário de 2006. Os resultados mostram que o crédito não foi efetivo para aumentar a produtividade dos fatores no setor agrícola, exceto para a região nordeste do Brasil. Os resultados apontam para a necessidade de melhorias na política de crédito rural no Brasil.

FDI and Export Participation of Local Firms in Africa: The Case of the Kenyan Garment Industry

FDI in the garment sector has been the single case of large-scale manufacturing investment in African low-income countries since the 1990s. While FDI has triggered the development of local industries in many developing countries, it has not yet been realized in Africa. This paper describes the spillover process in the Kenyan garment industry and investigates the background of local firms' behavior through firm interviews and simulation of expected profits in export market. It shows that credit constraint, rather than absorptive capacity, is a primary source of inactive participation in export opportunity. Only firms which afford additional production facilities without sacrificing stable domestic supply may be motivated to start exporting. However, in comparison with successful Asian exporters, those firms were not as motivated as Asian firms due to the large gap in expected profits.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Domain-driven classification based on multiple criteria and multiple constraint-level programming for intelligent credit scoring

Extracting knowledge from the transaction records and the personal data of credit card holders has great profit potential for the banking industry. The challenge is to detect/predict bankrupts and to keep and recruit the profitable customers. However, grouping and targeting credit card customers by traditional data-driven mining often does not directly meet the needs of the banking industry, because data-driven mining automatically generates classification outputs that are imprecise, meaningless, and beyond users' control. In this paper, we provide a novel domain-driven classification method that takes advantage of multiple criteria and multiple constraint-level programming for intelligent credit scoring. The method involves credit scoring to produce a set of customers' scores that allows the classification results actionable and controllable by human interaction during the scoring process. Domain knowledge and experts' experience parameters are built into the criteria and constraint functions of mathematical programming and the human and machine conversation is employed to generate an efficient and precise solution. Experiments based on various data sets validated the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods. © 2006 IEEE.

Liquidity Constraint and Child Labor In India: Is Market Really Incapable Of Eradicating It From Wage-Labor Households?

One way to measure the lower steady state equilibrium outcome in human capital development is the incidence of child labor in most of the developing countries. With the help of Indian household level data in an overlapping generation framework, we show that production loans under credit rationing are not optimally extended towards firms because of issues with adverse selection. More stringent rationing in the credit market creates a distortion in the labor market by increasing adult wage rate and the demand for child labor. Lower availability of funds under stringent rationing coupled with increased demand for loans induces the high risk firms to replace adult labor by child labor. A switch of regime from credit rationing to revelation regime can clear such imperfections in the labor market. The equilibrium higher wage rate elevates the household consumption to a significantly higher level than the subsistence under credit rationing and therefore higher level of human capital development is assured leading to no supply of child labor.

Ex ante bargaining and ex post enforcement in trade credit supply: theory and evidence from China

If payment of goods is easily default, economic transaction may deeply suffer from the risk. This risky environment formed a mechanism that governs how economic transaction is realized, subsequently how trade credit is given. This paper distinguished ex ante bargaining and ex post enforcement, then modeled that bargaining power reduces trade credit ex ante, and ex post enforcement power and cash in hand of buyer can enhances both trade amount and trade credit in a presence of default risk. We modeled this relationship in order to organize findings from previous literature and from our original micro data on detailed transaction in China to consistently understand the mechanism governing trade credit. Then empirically tested a structure from the theoretical prediction with data. Results show that ex post enforcement power of seller mainly determines size of trade credit and trade amount, cash in hand of buyer can substitute with enforcement power; Bargaining power of seller is exercised to reduces trade credit and trade amount for avoiding default risk, but it simultaneously improves enforcement power as well. We found that ex post enforcement power consists of (ex ante) bargaining power on between two parties and intervention from the third party. However, its magnitude is far smaller than the direct impact to reduce trade credit and trade amount.

A puha költségvetési korlát szindrómája a kórházi szektorban = The soft budget constraint syndrome in the hospital sector

A kutatások eddig főképpen azt vizsgálták, hogyan jelenik meg a puha költségvetési korlát szindrómája a vállalati szférában és a hitelrendszerben. A jelen cikk a kórházi szektorra összpontosítja a figyelmet. Leírja az események öt főszereplőjének, a betegnek, az orvosnak, a kórházigazgatónak, a politikusnak és a kórház tulajdonosának motivációit és magatartásuk ellentmondásos jellegét. A motivációk magyarázzák, miért olyan erőteljes a túlköltési hajlam és a költségvetési korlát felpuhulásának tendenciája. A döntési és finanszírozási folyamatok minden szintjén felfelé hárítják a túlköltés és eladósodás terheit. A cikk kitér a különböző tulajdonformák (állami, nonprofit és forprofit nem állami tulajdonformák) és a puha költségvetési korlát szindrómájának kapcsolatára. Végül normatív szempontból vizsgálja a jelenséget: melyek a költségvetési korlát megkeményítésének kedvező és kedvezőtlen következményei, és hogyan tükröződnek a normatív dilemmák az események résztvevőinek tudatában. ___________ Researches so far have examined mainly how the soft budget constraint syndrome appears in the corporate sphere and the credit system. This article concentrates on the hospital sector. It describes the motivations and the contradictory behaviour of the five main types of participant in the events: patients, doctors, hospital managers, politicians, and hospital owners. The motivations explain why the propensity to overspend and the tendency to soften the budget constraint are so strong. The burdens of overspending and indebtedness are pushed upwards at every level of the decision-making and funding processes. The article considers the connection between the soft budget constraint syn-drome and the various forms of ownership (state ownership and the non-profit and for-profit forms of non-state ownership). Finally, the phenomenon is examined from the normative point of view: what are the favourable and unfavourable consequences of hardening the budget constraint and how these are reflected in the consciousness of the participants in the normative dilemmas and events.

The economics of credit markets: theory and evidence.

Doutoramento em Economia.

The EU ban on uncovered sovereign credit default swaps: assessing impacts on liquidity, volatility and price discovery

This article addresses the effects of the prohibition against naked CDS buying implemented by the European Union in November 2012. Three aspects of market quality are analyzed: liquidity, volatility, and price informativeness. Overall, our results suggest that the ban produced negative effects on liquidity and price informativeness. First, we find that in territories within the scope of the EU regulation, the bid–ask spreads on sovereign CDS contracts rose after the ban, but fell for countries outside its bounds. Open interest declined for both groups of CDS reference entities in our sample, but significantly more in the constraint group. Price delay increased more prominently for countries affected by the ban, whereas price precision decreased for these countries while increasing for CDSs written on other sovereign reference entities. Most notably, our findings indicate that hese negative effects were more pronounced amid reference entities exhibiting lower credit risk. With respect to volatility, the evidence suggests that the ban was successful in stabilizing the CDS market in that volatility decreased, particularly for contracts written on riskier CDS entities.