Modeling the effectiveness of counterterrorism interventions

After the terrorist attacks in the United States on 11 September 2001, terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts moved to the front of popular consciousness and became the focus of national security for governments worldwide. With this increased attention came an urgent interest in understanding and identifying what works in fighting terrorism (Belasco 2010). For Australia, understanding the relative effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts in nearby neighbours of Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines is highly relevant for our country's national security. Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are all countries that are important to Australia not just because of geographic proximity, but also because of a history of economic ties and the role these countries play as Australia’s regional partners...

Neocolonialism and international law, with specific reference to customary counterterrorism obligations and the principle of self-defence

Has international law ever, and, if it has not, can it ever, truly freed itself from the strictures of neocolonialism and the drive by a privileged elite to dominate the world scene? This article begins by inquiring into the nature of neocolonialism and, in so doing, pays particular attention to the writings of former Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah. It then proceeds to determine how neocolonialist designs surface in international law today by briefly looking at two aspects of international law in particular, namely customary international law, with specific reference to the counterterrorism context, and the principle of self-defence. In the final analysis, this article argues for a necessary and eternal scepticism of international law and the agendas of its privileged gatekeepers. Like classic State power, it opens itself to, and often operates as, neocolonial overreach, and to quote Nkrumah, “[t]he cajolement, the wheedlings, the seductions and the Trojan horses of neo-colonialism must be stoutly resisted, for neo-colonialism is a latter-day harpy, a monster which entices its victims with sweet music.”

Fighting Al-Qaeda in Yemen? Rethinking the nature of the Islamist threat and the effectiveness of US counterterrorism strategy

This paper evaluates the US’ perception of and response to al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) operating in Yemen. It evaluates the empirical evidence on which the present understanding of the group is based, the implications of the socio-political context in which it operates, and the uneasy position of the Yemeni government in the war against terror as it has been affected by US policy from the early 1990s to the present. In the contested Yemeni state, AQAP is competing for political legitimacy and is increasingly dependent on public support. The US’ kill-or-capture response, the “on-off” nature of its support that has made Yemen vulnerable to the influence of al-Qaeda in the past, and the actions of the Yemeni government itself, which depends on the continued existence of the threat to secure financial support vital for political survival, means that none of the measures being taken has the potential to defeat AQAP.

Analogical Reasoning Techniques in Intelligent Counterterrorism Systems

The paper develops a set of ideas and techniques supporting analogical reasoning throughout the life-cycle of terrorist acts. Implementation of these ideas and techniques can enhance the intellectual level of computer-based systems for a wide range of personnel dealing with various aspects of the problem of terrorism and its effects. The method combines techniques of structure-sensitive distributed representations in the framework of Associative-Projective Neural Networks, and knowledge obtained through the progress in analogical reasoning, in particular the Structure Mapping Theory. The impact of these analogical reasoning tools on the efforts to minimize the effects of terrorist acts on civilian population is expected by facilitating knowledge acquisition and formation of terrorism-related knowledge bases, as well as supporting the processes of analysis, decision making, and reasoning with those knowledge bases for users at various levels of expertise before, during, and after terrorist acts.

From Empire to Iraq and the "War on Terror": The Transplanation and Commodification of the (Northern) Irish Policing Experience

Charting the enduring export appeal of policing models from (Northern) Ireland, this article sheds some light on the processes by which policing models are communicated and actively promoted to the global policing environment. The authors demonstrate how the transplantation of the Irish colonial model (ICM) represents an early example of the globalization of policing. The legacy of counterinsurgency expertise embedded within the ICM remains a historical constant and is a key factor in relation to the increasing commodification of the contemporary Northern Irish policing model, a model that successfully blends counterterrorism experience with a template for democratic policing reform. By juxtaposing these models, the authors provide a conceptual framework through which to assess the contemporary substance of policing transfer. The authors conclude by suggesting that the seductiveness of these policing models is largely attributable to lessons in counterinsurgency and notions of "Ireland as the solution" to a host of complex security scenarios.

From Counter-terrorism to Criminal Justice: Transformation or Business as Usual?

The article explores the extent to which criminal justice in Northern Ireland has been reconstructed over the past fifteen years. The focus is on the framework provided in the Good Friday Agreement (1998) and the range of transition processes that followed. Post-Agreement Inquiries are reviewed and the findings demonstrate the institutional rigidities facing the transformation of criminal justice. While the ideologies and practices of counter-terrorism no longer dominate the business of criminal justice, the extent of change in terms of social representativeness, scale and expenditure is variable, with the prison service proving the least changed.

Towards an Acceptable Level of Violence: Institutional Lessons from Northern Ireland

Institutional and economic development has recently returned to the forefront of economic analysis. The use of case studies (both historical and contemporary) has been important in this revival. Likewise, it has been argued recently by economic methodologists that historical context provides a kind of ‘‘laboratory’’ for the researcher interested in real world economic phenomena. Counterterrorism economics, in contrast with much of the rest of the literature on terrorism, has all too rarely drawn upon detailed contextual case studies. This article seeks to help remedy this problem. Archival evidence, including previously unpublished material on the DeLorean case, is an important feature of this article. The article examines how an inter-related strategy, which traded-off economic, security, and political considerations, operated during the Troubles. Economic repercussions of this strategy are discussed. An economic analysis of technical and organizational change within paramilitarism is also presented. A number of institutional lessons are discussed including: the optimal balance between carrot versus stick, centralization relative to decentralization, the economics of intelligence operations, and tit-for-tat violence. While existing economic models are arguably correct in identifying benefits from politico-economic decentralization, they downplay the element highlighted by institutional analysis.

Considering Just-World Thinking in Counter-Terrorism Cases: Miscarriages of Justice in Northern Ireland

Recent literature has drawn a parallel between the discriminatory application of counterterrorism legislation to the Irish population in the United Kingdom during the Northern Ireland conflict and the targeting of Muslims after September 2001. Less attention has been paid to lessons that can be drawn from judicial decision making in terrorism-related cases stemming from the Northern Ireland conflict. This Article examines Northern Ireland Court of Appeal (“NICA”) jurisprudence on miscarriages of justice in cases regarding counterterrorism offenses. In particular, the Article focuses on cases referred after the 1998 peace agreements in Northern Ireland from the Criminal Cases Review Commission (“CCRC”), a relatively new entity that investigates potential wrongful convictions in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Although the NICA’s human rights jurisprudence has developed significantly in recent years, the study of CCRC-referred cases finds that judges have retained confidence in the integrity of the conflict-era counterterrorism system even while acknowledging abuses and procedural irregularities that occurred. This study partially contradicts contentions that judicial deference to the executive recedes in a post-conflict or post-emergency period. Despite a high rate of quashed convictions, the NICA’s decisions suggest that it seeks to limit a large number of referrals and demonstrate a judicial predisposition to defend the justness of the past system’s laws and procedure. This perspective is consistent with what social psychologists have studied as “just-world thinking,” in which objective observers, although motivated by a concern with justice, believe—as a result of cognitive bias—that individuals “got what they deserved.” The Article considers other potential interpretations of the jurisprudence and contends that conservative decision making is particularly dangerous in the politicized realm of counterterrorism and in light of the criminalization of members of suspect communities.

Forgoing primacy: Damaging democratic policing in the West Bank

Since the Oslo Accords were signed between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) in September 1993, the international community has supported civil policing programmes. It has done so as part of its development commitments to Palestinian state-building. Such programmes were, until the outbreak of the second Intifada in 2000, largely regarded as successful in terms of supporting the establishment of a Palestinian civil police (PCP). Such programmes were essentially Western imported models which loosely mixed community and public order policing approaches. With re-engagement in the Palestinian security sector (PSS) in the West Bank in 2007, the international community has once again sought to play a major role in PSS reform. This role includes supporting rehabilitation and retraining of the PCP as a principal institution of state-building. Such activities alongside the so-called transformation efforts within the wider realm of the PSS have re-established as their goal law and order. Within the transformation agenda, there are inherent demands with respect to Israel and the Palestinian National Authority's security and counterterrorism agendas. This analysis examines these activities, and accompanying political intent to contend that such approaches are undermining principles of democratic policing including civil police primacy (CPP). CPP reinforces police universality and means supporting rule of law by putting security under governmental control with proper mechanisms of accountability. This article argues that support to the security sector in the West Bank has increasingly only paid lip service or sought to subvert normative approaches to democratic policing.

Death for life : a study of targeted killing by States in international law

"Mémoire présenté à la faculté des études supérieures en vue de l'obtention du grade de Maîtrise en droit (LL.M.)". Ce mémoire a été accepté à l'unanimité et classé parmi les 10% des mémoires de la discipline.

Les assassinats ciblés, facette méconnue de la guerre israélo-palestinienne

L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’analyser les impacts et l’efficacité de la politique d’assassinats ciblés d’Israël dans le cadre du conflit israélo-palestinien. Pour ce faire, trois angles d’approches sont utilisés; militaire, légale et politique. Pour cette raison, l’hypothèse de départ soutient que la politique compromet la résolution du conflit et se divise en trois sections. Tout d’abord, les assassinats ciblés nuisent au règlement du conflit car ils engendrent un cycle de représailles contre Israël. Deuxièmement, ils représentent une violation du droit international ainsi que du droit national israélien. Finalement, ils sont un sérieux obstacle à la résolution politique du conflit dû au climat de violence et de méfiance qu’ils instaurent. Dans la conclusion, il est retenu que, bien que la politique d’assassinats ciblés ne soit pas efficace pour lutter contre les organisations terroristes, elle n’engendre cependant pas d’effet contreproductif de cycle de violence. Dans un second temps, la politique va à l’encontre de lois internationales mais elle peut cependant être justifiée par certains articles issus de ces mêmes textes alors que la Cour suprême israélienne a reconnu que certaines opérations pouvaient s’avérées légales. Troisièmement, elle nuit bel et bien à la résolution politique du conflit israélopalestinien en exacerbant les tensions de par le climat qu’elle instaure. Finalement, les nombreux impacts de celle-ci sur le conflit n’en font pas une politique efficace.

Análisis de las relaciones político-militares colombo-estadounidenses y su incidencia en la política de seguridad y defensa venezolana durante el periodo 2006-2010

Las relaciones político-militares entre Colombia y Estados Unidos (EE.UU.) se han orientado desde la década de los ochenta a la solución de dos asuntos fundamentales de la agenda bilateral, como son: por un lado, la Lucha contra las Drogas, y desde los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2001, la Lucha Global contra el Terrorismo Internacional. A partir de esto, la alianza formada entre ambas naciones se ha manifestado, en términos materiales, en el incremento de ayudas económicas, material armamentístico, inteligencia, tropas y contratistas estadounidenses en Colombia, lo cual, acompañado de la alineación colombiana al discurso antiterrorista estadounidense han permitido que Colombia sea considerado por EE.UU. como un aliado estratégico en la región. Ante el escenario de las relaciones colombo-estadounidenses, la administración de Hugo Chávez Frías inició un programa de reorientación de la política de seguridad y defensa venezolana con el fin de garantizar la defensa integral del Estado, a partir del incremento en la adquisición de material bélico y reequipamiento militar, la profundización de las relaciones cívico-militares y el involucramiento directo de la sociedad civil en la defensa del Estado. Por lo anterior, este estudio se centra particularmente, en determinar en qué medida la reorientación de la doctrina de seguridad venezolana durante el gobierno de Chávez, en especial durante el periodo 2006-2010, hace parte de una estrategia defensiva frente a la amenaza identificada en la relación político-militar entre Colombia y Estados Unidos.

Análisis de las relaciones bilaterales entre Pakistán y Estados Unidos en materia de seguridad (Periodo 2007 - 2010)

Después de los ataques del 11 de septiembre de 2001, Pakistán se ha convertido en uno de los principales aliados de Estados Unidos para combatir las fuerzas terroristas de Al-Qaeda y los talibán en el centro y sur de Asia. La alianza bilateral no ha manifestado resultados determinantes para aliviar los problemas de seguridad en Pakistán, por el contrario, la yihad islámica se ha fortalecido en su población y los ataques terroristas que atentan contra la población civil y el aparato estatal se vuelven cada vez mas frecuentes, en razón de lo anterior, los grupos insurgentes en Pakistán han fortalecido su capacidad operativa y expandido su escenario de influencia.

Trouble Ahead: The Cocaleros of Peru

Este artículo es una versión reducida del original publicado en la Revista Current History, Vol. 105, No. 688, febrero, 2006, pp. 79-86. La revista Desafíos ha decidido publicar apartes por considerarlo de interés para la discusión sobre los efectos y resultados de la política de erradicación de cultivos ilícitos en Colombia. – This article is an abbreviated reproduction of the article published in the Current History Journal, Vol. 105, Nr. 688, Februrary, 2006, pp. 79-86. Desafíos Journal decided to publish parts of it due to the consideration of its interest for the discussion on consequences and results of the eradication policy of ilegal crops in Colombia.An anti-narcotics policy that ignores the social consequences of drug crops eradication only manages to further radicalize and isolate the population in areas in which lawlessness and potential terrorist activity thrive. It also strengthens the bond between disaffected social groups and guerrilla organizations in these areas. Washington cannot continue to be blind to the fact that the three current US policies on counterterrorism, anti-narcotics, and democratization in Peru and elsewhere in Latin America, are not working in harmony. Paradoxically, the eradication of drug crops —the core of Peru’s US-sponsored anti-narcotics policy— enlarges pockets of poverty and fuels anger against the government. It also perpetuates the proverbial quagmire of alienation in which terrorism breeds. Instead of strengthening the State, drug eradication, particularly in the way it is currently carried out in the Andean countries, increases the risk of State failure.-----El efecto de una política antinarcóticos que ignora las consecuencias de la erradicación de cultivos de coca es radicalizar y aislar aún más la población en aquellas zonas donde prosperan la anarquía y el terrorismo. Además, fortalece los lazos entre los descontentos sociales y los grupos guerrilleros en esas mismas áreas. Washington no puede seguir ciega al hecho de que las tres políticas actuales de Estados Unidos —antiterrorismo, antinarcóticos y democratización en el Perú y otras regiones en América Latina— no están funcionando armónicamente. Resulta paradójico que la erradicación de cultivos de coca -eje de la política antinarcóticos peruana respaldada por Estados Unidos- ensanche las bolsas de miseria y aliente la ira contra el gobierno, además de perpetuar los proverbiales miasmas de marginación en las que se engendra el terrorismo. En vez de fortalecer al Estado, la erradicación de cultivos de coca, tal y como se está llevando a cabo en los países andinos, incrementa las posibilidades de su fracaso.

Securitización en el desierto: Una respuesta al terrorismo en Malí y en Níger, 2009 - 2013.

Este es un estudio sobre las dinámicas de seguridad en Malí durante el periodo de 2009 a 2013. La investigación busca explicar de qué manera se ha dado un proceso de securitización de los grupos insurgentes frente a la amenaza generada por la proliferación de grupos armados no estatales en el territorio comprendido entre Malí y Níger. Se toma a Níger con el ánimo de ver la existencia de un subcomplejo regional de seguridad entre este país y Malí. De esta manera se afirma que el aumento de las actividades insurgentes y terroristas en la zona compuesta por Malí y Níger se da por la proliferación de actores armados no estatales, entre los cuales se encuentran los grupos seculares e insurgentes Tuareg, las agrupaciones islamistas fundamentalistas y los grupos que se componen entre rebeldes Tuareg, criminales e islamistas, éstos actores han afectado la percepción que tiene Malí sobre su seguridad.