Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Self-exciting threshold binomial autoregressive processes

We introduce a new class of integer-valued self-exciting threshold models, which is based on the binomial autoregressive model of order one as introduced by McKenzie (Water Resour Bull 21:645–650, 1985. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985. tb05379.x). Basic probabilistic and statistical properties of this class of models are discussed. Moreover, parameter estimation and forecasting are addressed. Finally, the performance of these models is illustrated through a simulation study and an empirical application to a set of measle cases in Germany.

Coagulation/flocculation/flotation/nanofiltration processes using Moringa Oleifera as coagulant of Eutrophized river

This study investigated the efficiency of Moringa oleifera (MO) seeds as natural coagulant in coagulation/flocculation/dissolved air flotation (C/F/DAF), followed by nanofiltration (NF) for Microcystis protocystis and microcystin-LR removal. The methodology adopted in this work was performed in two steps: 1) coagulation/flocculation/dissolved air flotation (C/F/DAF) process using the MO extracted in saline solution of potassium chloride (KCl-1M) and sodium chloride (NaCl-1M) in optimum dosage 50 mg·L-1; 2) nanofiltration process using NF90 and NF270 membrane provided Dow Chemical Company®. A working pressure of 8 bar was applied. In all samples were analyzed color, turbidity, pH, cyanobacterial cells count and microcystin concentration. The use of MO seeds as natural coagulant, obtained satisfactory results in the M. protocystis, color and turbidity removal. NF was able to completely remove cyanobacterial cells and microcystins (100 %) from M. protocystis (always under the quantification limit). Therefore, C/F/DAF+NF sequence is a safe barrier against M. protocystis and microcystins in drinking water.

Using Mastitis Records and Somatic Cell Count Data

On-farm records are essential for managing mastitis in dairy herds. Mastitis records are a useful tool for caring for an individual cow, to monitor compliance of farm personnel working with groups of animals, to understand the epidemiology of mastitis in the herd, to ensure responsible drug utilization, and to document accountability in care of the cow. Herds have become larger and more people are involved with individual animal care. This article describes a records plan that can be used to monitor mastitis at the herd level, aid in decision-making processes for individual cows, and improve drug use on dairy herds.

Qualitatitive and quantitative analysis of fish spoilage processes for development of new food monitoring systems

This study investigates the growth and metabolite production of microorganisms causing spoilage of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) fillets packaged under air and modified atmosphere (60 % CO2, 40 % O2). Samples were provided by two different retailers (A and B). Storage of packaged fillets occurred at 4 °C and 8 °C. Microbiological quality and metabolite production of cod fillets stored in MAP 4 °C, MAP 8 °C and air were monitored during 13 days, 7 days and 3 days of storage, respectively. Volatile compounds concentration in the headspace were quantified by Selective ion flow tube mass spectrometry and a correlation with microbiological spoilage was studied. The onset of volatile compounds detection was observed to be mostly around 7 log cfu/g of total psychrotrophic count. Trimethylamine and dimethyl sulfide were found to be the dominant volatiles in all of the tested storage conditions, nevertheless there was no close correlation between concentrations of each main VOC and percentages of rejection based on sensory evaluation. According to results it was concluded that they cannot be considered as only indicators of the quality of cod fillets stored in modified atmosphere and air.  

Analyzing Panel Count Data with Informative Observation Times

In this paper, we study panel count data with informative observation times. We assume nonparametric and semiparametric proportional rate models for the underlying recurrent event process, where the form of the baseline rate function is left unspecified and a subject-specific frailty variable inflates or deflates the rate function multiplicatively. The proposed models allow the recurrent event processes and observation times to be correlated through their connections with the unobserved frailty; moreover, the distributions of both the frailty variable and observation times are considered as nuisance parameters. The baseline rate function and the regression parameters are estimated by maximizing a conditional likelihood function of observed event counts and solving estimation equations. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed estimation procedures perform well for moderate sample sizes. An application to a bladder tumor study is presented to illustrate the use of the proposed methods.

Independent association of sleep quality, fatigue, and vital exhaustion with platelet count in patients with a previous venous thromboembolic event

Elevated platelet count might reflect increased inflammation as an etiological factor for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Poor sleep, fatigue, and exhaustion are all associated with inflammation and are also common sequelae of chronic psychological stress that previously predicted increased risk of VTE. We hypothesized that platelet count would be high in patients with VTE who sleep poorly and who are fatigued and exhausted. We investigated 205 patients scheduled for thrombophilia work-up > or =3 months after an objectively diagnosed venous thromboembolic event. They completed the Jenkins Sleep Questionnaire to rate subjective sleep quality and the short forms of the Multidimensional Fatigue Symptom Inventory and Maastricht Vital Exhaustion Questionnaire. Platelet count was determined by a mechanical Coulter counter. Analyses controlled for age, sex, body mass index, time since the index event, and medication. After taking into account these covariates, poorer sleep quality (p = 0.001; DeltaR(2)= 0.046), high fatigue (p = 0.008; DeltaR(2)= 0.032), and vital exhaustion (p = 0.050; DeltaR(2)= 0.017) were all associated with elevated platelet count. In addition, high level of fatigue mediated the relationship between poor sleep quality and elevated platelet count (p = 0.046). Poor sleep quality, high levels of fatigue, and vital exhaustion were identified as correlates of an elevated platelet count in patients with a previous episode of VTE. Given the emerging role of inflammatory processes in VTE, the findings suggest a mechanism through which behavioral and chronic psychological stressors might contribute to incident and recurrent venous thrombotic events.

The Chemical Mechanism of a Brown-Rot Decay Mimtic System and its Application in Paper Recycling Processes

This work is aimed at improving our current knowledge of the non-enzymatic inecl~anisins involved in brown-rot decay, as well as the exploration of potential applications of a brown-rot mimetic model system in paper recycling processes. The study was divided into two parts. The first part focussed on the chemical mechanisms involved in chelation and reduction of iron by a low molecular weight chelator (isolated from the brown-rot fungus Gloeophyllz~m tmbeum) and its model compound 2,3- dihydroxybenzoic acid (2,3-DHBA). Chelation as well as free radical generation mediated by this system were studied by ESR measurement. The results indicate that the effects of the chelator/iron ratio, the pH, and other reaction parameters on hydroxyl radical generation by a Fenton type system could be determined using ESR spin-trapping techniques. The results also support the hypothesis that superoxide radicals are involved in the chelator-mediated Fenton process. In the second part of the study, the effect of a chelator-mediated Fenton system for the improvement of deinking efficiency and the n~odification of fiber and paper properties was studied. For the deinking study, copy paper was laser printed with an identical standard pattern. Then repulping and flotation operations were performed to remove ink particles. Under properly controlled deinking conditions, the chelator mediated treatment (CMT) resulted in a reduction in dirt count over that of conventional deinking procedures with no significant loss of pulp strength. To study the effect of the chelator system treatment on the quality of pulp with different fines content, a fully bleached hardwood kraft pulp was beaten to different freeness levels and treated with the chelator-mediated free radical system. The result shows that virgin fiber and heavily beaten fiber respond differently to the free radical treatment. Unbeaten fibers become more flexible and easier to collapse after free radical treatment, while beaten fibers show a reduction in fines and small materials after mild free radical treatment.

On the improvement of urban regeneration processes from more than thirty years of rehabilitation experiences

At this moment of extended economic, social and environmental crisis within which new interventions on the consolidated city are being set out, it is essential to count on the acquired experience in urban rehabilitation processes that were carried out in Spain during the last thirty years. Despite the complexity of this kind of processes and the diversity of the situations and actions that happened, this paper addresses the analysis of common patterns in twenty urban rehabilitation experiences. Different stages of the processes were studied, from the management to the regenerated areas in order to ease the design of new intervention initiatives.

Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Oil Flow Rate Measurements Using 198au And Total Count Technique

In industrial plants, oil and oil compounds are usually transported by closed pipelines with circular cross-section. The use of radiotracers in oil transport and processing industrial facilities allows calibrating flowmeters, measuring mean residence time in cracking columns, locate points of obstruction or leak in underground ducts, as well as investigating flow behavior or industrial processes such as in distillation towers. Inspection techniques using radiotracers are non-destructive, simple, economic and highly accurate. Among them, Total Count, which uses a small amount of radiotracer with known activity, is acknowledged as an absolute technique for flow rate measurement. A viscous fluid transport system, composed by four PVC pipelines with 13m length (12m horizontal and 1m vertical) and ½, ¾, 1 and 2-inch gauges, respectively, interconnected by maneuvering valves was designed and assembled in order to conduct the research. This system was used to simulate different flow conditions of petroleum compounds and for experimental studies of flow profile in the horizontal and upward directions. As 198Au presents a single photopeak (411,8 keV), it was the radioisotope chosen for oil labeling, in small amounts (6 ml) or around 200 kBq activity, and it was injected in the oil transport lines. A NaI scintillation detector 2”x 2”, with well-defined geometry, was used to measure total activity, determine the calibration factor F and, positioned after a homogenization distance and interconnected to a standardized electronic set of nuclear instrumentation modules (NIM), to detect the radioactive cloud.

Cleavage Politics in Changing Times. Political Realignment Processes in Western European Countries

The dissertation fits the political realignment literature and aims to pro-vide further insights into cleavage politics by investigating voting behaviour in the Western European countries’ national elections. In particular, the dis-sertation focuses on the class and value voting patterns and on the change of these patterns in different countries and over the course of time. Peculiar pro-cesses affected all Western European party systems: whilst the «traditional» cleavage theory accounts for National and Industrial revolutions, those pro-cesses assumed to constitute the «societal modernization» determined chang-es in electoral competitions that questioned the relevance of individuals’ so-cial positions to study electoral preferences. Since the associations between social positions and voting behaviour underpin the so-called political cleav-age, the dealignment perspective assumes them to have been eroding since the second half of the XX century. On the other hand, the realignment perspective argues that the cleavage theory still accounts for individuals’ vote choices: of the four «traditional» cleavages, this perspective hypothesizes new class vot-ing patterns and alignments between electoral preferences and a new line of conflict, that is based on values. The dissertation provides a theoretical ac-count of the realignment of the class cleavage and a new conceptualization of value voting. Then, class and value voting patterns are explored. The analyses employ European Social Survey data and detect general and country-specific patterns. The dissertation adopts a mediation perspective and aims to observe how class voting patterns change when controlling for value orientations. The results are provided with a sensitivity analysis, indeed two versions of the measures computed for value orientations are compared. The findings show that social class continues to affect voting behaviour and that value orienta-tions both mediate this effect and affect electoral preferences.

Geochemistry Of Acid Mine Drainage From A Coal Mining Area And Processes Controlling Metal Attenuation In Stream Waters, Southern Brazil.

Acid drainage influence on the water and sediment quality was investigated in a coal mining area (southern Brazil). Mine drainage showed pH between 3.2 and 4.6 and elevated concentrations of sulfate, As and metals, of which, Fe, Mn and Zn exceeded the limits for the emission of effluents stated in the Brazilian legislation. Arsenic also exceeded the limit, but only slightly. Groundwater monitoring wells from active mines and tailings piles showed pH interval and chemical concentrations similar to those of mine drainage. However, the river and ground water samples of municipal public water supplies revealed a pH range from 7.2 to 7.5 and low chemical concentrations, although Cd concentration slightly exceeded the limit adopted by Brazilian legislation for groundwater. In general, surface waters showed large pH range (6 to 10.8), and changes caused by acid drainage in the chemical composition of these waters were not very significant. Locally, acid drainage seemed to have dissolved carbonate rocks present in the local stratigraphic sequence, attenuating the dispersion of metals and As. Stream sediments presented anomalies of these elements, which were strongly dependent on the proximity of tailings piles and abandoned mines. We found that precipitation processes in sediments and the dilution of dissolved phases were responsible for the attenuation of the concentrations of the metals and As in the acid drainage and river water mixing zone. In general, a larger influence of mining activities on the chemical composition of the surface waters and sediments was observed when enrichment factors in relation to regional background levels were used.

Construction Of A Manual Of Work Processes And Techniques From Centro De Dispensação De Medicamentos De Alto Custo (cedmac), Hospital De Clínicas, Unicamp.

The Centers for High Cost Medication (Centros de Medicação de Alto Custo, CEDMAC), Health Department, São Paulo were instituted by project in partnership with the Clinical Hospital of the Faculty of Medicine, USP, sponsored by the Foundation for Research Support of the State of São Paulo (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP) aimed at the formation of a statewide network for comprehensive care of patients referred for use of immunobiological agents in rheumatological diseases. The CEDMAC of Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (HC-Unicamp), implemented by the Division of Rheumatology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, identified the need for standardization of the multidisciplinary team conducts, in face of the specificity of care conducts, verifying the importance of describing, in manual format, their operational and technical processes. The aim of this study is to present the methodology applied to the elaboration of the CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual as an institutional tool, with the aim of offering the best assistance and administrative quality. In the methodology for preparing the manuals at HC-Unicamp since 2008, the premise was to obtain a document that is participatory, multidisciplinary, focused on work processes integrated with institutional rules, with objective and didactic descriptions, in a standardized format and with electronic dissemination. The CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual was elaborated in 10 months, with involvement of the entire multidisciplinary team, with 19 chapters on work processes and techniques, in addition to those concerning the organizational structure and its annexes. Published in the electronic portal of HC Manuals in July 2012 as an e-Book (ISBN 978-85-63274-17-5), the manual has been a valuable instrument in guiding professionals in healthcare, teaching and research activities.

Understanding Red Blood Cell Parameters In The Context Of The Frailty Phenotype: Interpretations Of The Fibra (frailty In Brazilian Seniors) Study.

Frailty and anemia in the elderly appear to share a common pathophysiology associated with chronic inflammatory processes. This study uses an analytical, cross-sectional, population-based methodology to investigate the probable relationships between frailty, red blood cell parameters and inflammatory markers in 255 community-dwelling elders aged 65 years or older. The frailty phenotype was assessed by non-intentional weight loss, fatigue, low grip strength, low energy expenditure and reduced gait speed. Blood sample analyses were performed to determine hemoglobin level, hematocrit and reticulocyte count, as well as the inflammatory variables IL-6, IL-1ra and hsCRP. In the first multivariate analysis (model I), considering only the erythroid parameters, Hb concentration was a significant variable for both general frailty status and weight loss: a 1.0g/dL drop in serum Hb concentration represented a 2.02-fold increase (CI 1.12-3.63) in an individual's chance of being frail. In the second analysis (model II), which also included inflammatory cytokine levels, hsCRP was independently selected as a significant variable. Each additional year of age represented a 1.21-fold increase in the chance of being frail, and each 1-unit increase in serum hsCRP represented a 3.64-fold increase in the chance of having the frailty phenotype. In model II reticulocyte counts were associated with weight loss and reduced metabolic expenditure criteria. Our findings suggest that reduced Hb concentration, reduced RetAbs count and elevated serum hsCRP levels should be considered components of frailty, which in turn is correlated with sarcopenia, as evidenced by weight loss.