Managing infrastructure transitions : a complex adaptive systems perspective

Engineering assets such as roads, rail, bridges and other forms of public works are vital to the effective functioning of societies {Herder, 2006 #128}. Proficient provision of this physical infrastructure is therefore one of the key activities of government {Lædre, 2006 #123}. In order to ensure engineering assets are procured and maintained on behalf of citizens, government needs to devise the appropriate policy and institutional architecture for this purpose. The changing institutional arrangements around the procurement of engineering assets are the focus of this paper. The paper describes and analyses the transition to new, more collaborative forms of procurement arrangements which are becoming increasingly prevalent in Australia and other OECD countries. Such fundamental shifts from competitive to more collaborative approaches to project governance can be viewed as a major transition in procurement system arrangements. In many ways such changes mirror the shift from New Public Management, with its emphasis on the use of market mechanisms to achieve efficiencies {Hood, 1991 #166}, towards more collaborative approaches to service delivery, such as those under network governance arrangements {Keast, 2007 #925}. However, just as traditional forms of procurement in a market context resulted in unexpected outcomes for industry, such as a fragmented industry afflicted by chronic litigation {Dubois, 2002 #9}, the change to more collaborative forms of procurement is unlikely to be a panacea to the problems of procurement, and may well also have unintended consequences. This paper argues that perspectives from complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory can contribute to the theory and practice of managing system transitions. In particular the concept of emergence provides a key theoretical construct to understand the aggregate effect that individual project governance arrangements can have upon the structure of specific industries, which in turn impact individual projects. Emergence is understood here as the macro structure that emerges out of the interaction of agents in the system {Holland, 1998 #100; Tang, 2006 #51}.

Infrastructure transitions toward sustainability : a complex adaptive systems perspective

To ensure infrastructure assets are procured and maintained by government on behalf of citizens, appropriate policy and institutional architecture is needed, particularly if a fundamental shift to more sustainable infrastructure is the goal. The shift in recent years from competitive and resource-intensive procurement to more collaborative and sustainable approaches to infrastructure governance is considered a major transition in infrastructure procurement systems. In order to better understand this transition in infrastructure procurement arrangements, the concept of emergence from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) theory is offered as a key construct. Emergence holds that micro interactions can result in emergent macro order. Applying the concept of emergence to infrastructure procurement, this research examines how interaction of agents in individual projects can result in different industry structural characteristics. The paper concludes that CAS theory, and particularly the concept of ‘emergence’, provides a useful construct to understand infrastructure procurement dynamics and progress towards sustainability.

Truth in complex adaptive systems models should be based on truth by constructive verification

It is argued that the truth status of emergent properties of complex adaptive systems models should be based on an epistemology of proof by constructive verification and therefore on the ontological axioms of a non-realist logical system such as constructivism or intuitionism. ‘Emergent’ properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS) models create particular epistemological and ontological challenges. These challenges bear directly on current debates in the philosophy of mathematics and in theoretical computer science. CAS research, with its emphasis on computer simulation, is heavily reliant on models which explore the entailments of Formal Axiomatic Systems (FAS). The incompleteness results of Gödel, the incomputability results of Turing, and the Algorithmic Information Theory results of Chaitin, undermine a realist (platonic) truth model of emergent properties. These same findings support the hegemony of epistemology over ontology and point to alternative truth models such as intuitionism, constructivism and quasi-empiricism.

Change escalation processes and complex adaptive systems: from incremental reconfigurations to discontinuous restructuring

This study examines when “incremental” change is likely to trigger “discontinuous” change, using the lens of complex adaptive systems theory. Going beyond the simulations and case studies through which complex adaptive systems have been approached so far, we study the relationship between incremental organizational reconfigurations and discontinuous organizational restructurings using a large-scale database of U.S. Fortune 50 industrial corporations. We develop two types of escalation process in organizations: accumulation and perturbation. Under ordinary conditions, it is perturbation rather than the accumulation that is more likely to trigger subsequent discontinuous change. Consistent with complex adaptive systems theory, organizations are more sensitive to both accumulation and perturbation in conditions of heightened disequilibrium. Contrary to expectations, highly interconnected organizations are not more liable to discontinuous change. We conclude with implications for further research, especially the need to attend to the potential role of managerial design and coping when transferring complex adaptive systems theory from natural systems to organizational systems.

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategic development process and complex adaptive systems

The two areas of theory upon which this research was based were „strategy development process?(SDP) and „complex adaptive systems? (CAS), as part of complexity theory, focused on human social organisations. The literature reviewed showed that there is a paucity of empirical work and theory in the overlap of the two areas, providing an opportunity for contributions to knowledge in each area of theory, and for practitioners. An inductive approach was adopted for this research, in an effort to discover new insights to the focus area of study. It was undertaken from within an interpretivist paradigm, and based on a novel conceptual framework. The organisationally intimate nature of the research topic, and the researcher?s circumstances required a research design that was both in-depth and long term. The result was a single, exploratory, case study, which included use of data from 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, from 36 people, involving all the top management team members and significant other staff members; observations, rumour and grapevine (ORG) data; and archive data, over a 5½ year period (2005 – 2010). Findings confirm the validity of the conceptual framework, and that complex adaptive systems theory has potential to extend strategy development process theory. It has shown how and why the strategy process developed in the case study organisation by providing deeper insights to the behaviour of the people, their backgrounds, and interactions. Broad predictions of the „latent strategy development? process and some elements of the strategy content are also possible. Based on this research, it is possible to extend the utility of the SDP model by including peoples? behavioural characteristics within the organisation, via complex adaptive systems theory. Further research is recommended to test limits of the application of the conceptual framework and improve its efficacy with more organisations across a variety of sectors.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

How does complex adaptive system theory inform innovation in complex project based organisations?

Innovation enables organisations to endure by responding to emergence and to improve efficiency. Innovation in a complex organisation can be difficult due to complexities contributing to slow decision-making. Complex projects fail due to an inability to respond to emergence which consumes finances and impacts on resources and organisational success. Therefore, for complex organisations to improve on performance and resilience, it would be advantageous to understand how to improve the management of innovation and thus, the ability to respond to emergence. The benefits to managers are an increase in the number of successful projects and improved productivity. This study will explore innovation management in a complex project based organisation. The contribution to the academic literature will be an in-depth, qualitative exploration of innovation in a complex project based organisation using a comparative case study approach.

“Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems”

Title: Boundary-setting as a core activity in complex public systems
Authors: Joanne Murphy & Mary Lee Rhodes

The definition of the boundary of a system is at the core of any systems approach (Midgley 2000; 2003). By defining boundaries we enable – and delimit – the range of outcomes sought and the actions and resources that can be brought to bear. In complex adaptive systems (CAS) analysis, the conceptualisaion and definition of boundaries is particularly challenging as they are constantly undergoing redefinition through agent action, interaction and entry/exit. (Rhodes et al 2011). The concept of ‘boundaries’ appears regularly in a wide range of literature around public management, administration, geopolitics, regeneration and organisational development. Discussions around boundaries focus on many things from concrete physical manifestations and barriers, to virtual interfaces between one organisational unit and another, or even entirely theoretical demarcations between different schools of thought (Kaboolian, 1998, Levi-Faur, 2004, Agranoff & McGuire, 2004).

However, managing ‘beyond’ such boundaries is a routinely recurring aspiration that transcends sectors and local concerns. Unsurprisingly then, there is an increasing understanding of the need to acknowledge and manage such boundaries (whether they be physical, social or organisational) within public management as a discipline (Currie et al 2007, Fitzsimmons and White, 1997, Murtagh, 2002). This paper explores the impact of boundaries on public management strategic decision-making in the sectors of urban regeneration and healthcare. In particular, it focuses on demarcations to physical space, communal identity and within professional relationships in these sectors.

The first section describes the research that gave rise to the paper and the cases examined. Next we briefly define what we mean by boundaries. We explore issues that have emerged from our analysis of urban regeneration and health care singularly, before looking at how the concept of boundaries is a recurrent concern across the sectors. The main contribution of the paper is an exploration of how a CAS lens can bring a new insight into the concept of boundaries and decision-making in the two sets of case studies. This discussion will concentrate on initial conditions, bifurcation and adaptation as key CAS factors in relation to boundaries. We conclude with a brief discussion on the benefits of a CAS lens to an analysis of boundaries in public management decision-making.
References:

Agranoff, R. and McGuire, M. (2003) Collaborative Public Management: Strategies for Local Government. Washington, DC: Georgetown Univ. Press.

Currie, G., Lockett, A. (2007) “A critique of transformational leadership: moral, professional & contingent dimensions of leadership within public services organizations”. Human Relations 60: 341-370.

Fitzsimmons and White, (1997) "Crossing boundaries: communication between professional groups", Journal of Management in Medicine, Vol. 11 Iss: 2, pp.96 – 101

Kaboolian, L. (1998) “The New Public Management: Challenging the Boundaries of the Management vs. Administration Debate” Public Administration Review Vol. 58, No. 3 pp.189-193

Levi-Faur D. and Vigoda-Gadot Eran (eds) (2004) International Public Policy and Management: Policy Learning Beyond Regional, Cultural and Political Boundaries, Marcel Dekker,
Midgley, G. (ed) (2003) Systems Thinking. London: Sage Publications

Midgley, G. (2000) Systemic Intervention: Philosophy, Methodology and Practice. New York, NY: Kluwer.

Murtagh, B. (2002). The Politics of Territory: Policy and Segregation in Northern Ireland. Basingstoke, Palgrave.

Rhodes, ML, Joanne Murphy, Jenny Muir, John Murray (2011) Public Management & Complexity Theory: Richer Decision Making in Irish Public Services, UK: Routledge

An Evaluation of Complex Adaptive Evolvable System Simulation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-03

The theory of complexity adapted to international relations: the behaviour of the visegrad-ukraine complex adaptive system since November 2013

La teoría de la complejidad, propia del estudio de fenómenos relativos a las ciencias naturales, se muestra como un marco alternativo para comprender los eventos emergentes que surgen en el sistema internacional. Esta monografía correlaciona el lenguaje de la complejidad con las relaciones internacionales, enfocándose en la relación Visegrad—Ucrania, ya que ha sido escenario de una serie de eventos emergentes e inesperados desde las protestas civiles de noviembre de 2013 en Kiev. El sistema complejo que existe entre el Grupo Visegrad y Ucrania se ve , desde entonces, en la necesidad de adaptarse ante los recurrentes eventos emergentes y de auto organizarse. De ese modo, podrá comportarse en concordancia con escenarios impredecibles, particularmente en lo relacionado con sus interacciones energéticas y sus interconexiones políticas.

Understanding IT value : a multilevel, complex, and adaptive system perspective

One remaining difficulty in the Information Technology (IT) business value evaluation domain is the direct linkage between IT value and the underlying determinants of IT value or surrogates of IT value. This paper proposes a research that examines the interacting effects of the determinants of IT value, and their influences on IT value. The overarching research question is how those determinants interact with each other and affect the IT value at organizational value. To achieve this, this research embraces a multilevel, complex, and adaptive system view, where the IT value emerges from the interacting of underlying determinants. This research is theoretically grounded on three organizational theories – multilevel theory, complex adaptive systems theory, and adaptive structuration theory. By integrating those theoretical paradigms, this research proposes a conceptual model that focuses on the process where IT value is created from interactions of those determinants. To answer the research question, agent-based modeling technique is used in this research to build a computational representation based on the conceptual model. Computational experimentation will be conducted based on the computational representation. Validation procedures will be applied to consolidate the validity of this model. In the end, hypotheses will be tested using computational experimentation data.

Molecular Breeding for Complex Adaptive Traits: How Integrating Crop Ecophysiology and Modelling Can Enhance Efficiency

Progress in crop improvement is limited by the ability to identify favourable combinations of genotypes (G) and management practices (M) in relevant target environments (E) given the resources available to search among the myriad of possible combinations. To underpin yield advance we require prediction of phenotype based on genotype. In plant breeding, traditional phenotypic selection methods have involved measuring phenotypic performance of large segregating populations in multi-environment trials and applying rigorous statistical procedures based on quantitative genetic theory to identify superior individuals. Recent developments in the ability to inexpensively and densely map/sequence genomes have facilitated a shift from the level of the individual (genotype) to the level of the genomic region. Molecular breeding strategies using genome wide prediction and genomic selection approaches have developed rapidly. However, their applicability to complex traits remains constrained by gene-gene and gene-environment interactions, which restrict the predictive power of associations of genomic regions with phenotypic responses. Here it is argued that crop ecophysiology and functional whole plant modelling can provide an effective link between molecular and organism scales and enhance molecular breeding by adding value to genetic prediction approaches. A physiological framework that facilitates dissection and modelling of complex traits can inform phenotyping methods for marker/gene detection and underpin prediction of likely phenotypic consequences of trait and genetic variation in target environments. This approach holds considerable promise for more effectively linking genotype to phenotype for complex adaptive traits. Specific examples focused on drought adaptation are presented to highlight the concepts.