Landscape Pattern – Marl Prairie/Slough Gradient: Vegetation Composition along the Gradient and Decadal Vegetation Change Pattern in Shark Slough: Annual Report 2012

In the southern Everglades, vegetation in both the marl prairie and ridge and slough landscapes is sensitive to large-scale restoration activities associated with the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) authorized by the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) 2000 to restore the south Florida ecosystem. More specifically, changes in hydrologic regimes at both local and landscape scales are likely to affect vegetation composition along marl prairie-slough gradient resulting in a shift in boundary between plant communities in these landscapes. To strengthen our ability to assess how vegetation would respond to changes in underlying ecosystem drivers along the gradient, an improved understanding of reference conditions of plant community structure and function, and their responses to major stressors is important. In this regard, a study of vegetation structure and composition in relation to physical and biological processes along the marl prairie-slough gradient was initiated in 2005, and has continued through 2012 with funding from US Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE) (Cooperative Agreement # W912HZ-09-2-0018 Modification No.: P00002). This study addresses the hypothesis with respect to RECOVER-MAP monitoring item 3.1.3.5 – “Marl Prairie/Slough Gradients; patterns and trends in Shark Slough marshes and associated marl prairies”.

Attribution of the spatial pattern of CO2-forced sea level change to ocean surface flux changes

Climate models taking part in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) all predict a global mean sea level rise for the 21st century. Yet the sea level change is not spatially uniform and differs among models. Here we evaluate the role of air–sea fluxes of heat, water and momentum (windstress) to find the spatial pattern associated to each of them as well as the spread they can account for. Using one AOGCM to which we apply the surface flux changes from other AOGCMs, we show that the heat flux and windstress changes dominate both the pattern and the spread, but taking the freshwater flux into account as well yields a sea level change pattern in better agreement with the CMIP5 ensemble mean. Differences among the CMIP5 control ocean temperature fields have a smaller impact on the sea level change pattern.

Change propagation analysis in complex technical systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the "ripple" change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the "Grain for Green" policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of "Western Development", "Revitalization of Northeast", coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO2. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO2, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

岷江上游人工针叶、阔叶林土壤可溶性有机物质特征及其对凋落物分解的响应

土壤可溶性有机物质（Dissolved organic matter，DOM）作为土壤有机质的活性组分，在陆地生态系统物质循环中扮演非常重要的角色。土壤DOM的主要成分可溶性有机碳（Dissolved organic carbon，DOC）和氮（Dissolved organic nitrogen，DON）参与C、N循环过程。为深入揭示全球C、N循环过程机制，在未开展DOC和DON的地区进行相关研究是有必要的。森林土壤（包括枯枝落叶层）DOC、DON动态及调控机理的研究是目前国际上森林生态系统C、N循环研究热点之一。本研究立足于暖温带岷江上游茂县地区人工林植被，对土壤DOC和DON的库容量，季节动态及其与其它养分之间的关系进行了系统研究，旨在了解DOC和DON在该区生态系统中的重要作用，并探讨作为DOM主要来源的叶凋落物对DOC和DON的动态影响，研究有助于更加详细地了解该区生态系统C和N循环过程。本论文主要研究结论如下： 1研究了岷江上游地区两大主要土壤类型（棕壤和褐土）不同植物群落下土壤的DOC和DON含量及特征，结果表明：DOC和DON在两种土壤类型中均有库容量存在，DOC在0-10cm和10-20cm土层的含量幅度分别111.96~159.95 mg kg-1和69.02~100.84 mg kg-1。DON在0-10cm和10-20cm土层的含量幅度分别11.88~23.08 mg kg-1和4.70~10.77 mg kg-1。游离氨基酸在0-10cm和10-20cm土层的含量幅度分别0.84~1.66 mg kg-1和0.39~0.73 mg kg-1。DOC、DON与土壤中的一些养分因子表现出了显著的相关关系，共同反映了土壤的状况和质量，在该区开展DOC和DON的系统研究是有必要的。 2 对油松与连香树林地土壤DOC、DON以及其它化学指标的季节动态进行了研究，结果表明：油松与连香树林地土壤DOC和DON的季节动态变化表现了类似的规律，DOC和DON的含量均以秋季最高。DOC和DON的季节动态变化主要受凋落物生物因素的影响，但其微生物活力的生物因素以及降雨、温度等非生物因素也是控制土壤DOC和DON含量的重要因素。土壤DON在土壤中的行为不同于矿质氮，其季节动态不同于NO3--N和NH4+-N的季节动态，在研究N循环过程中，应考虑DON的变化情况。 3 对油松与连香树林地分解层和表层土壤（0-10cm）氨基酸周转动态进行了研究，结果表明：油松林地和连香树林地均以分解层的氨基酸含量高于矿质表层土壤的含量。每个取样时期，油松林地内各层次的氨基酸含量高于连香树林地内相应层次的含量。两林地各层次无机氮含量均超过了氨基酸的含量，并且室内培养30天后无机N的含量仍然高于氨基酸的含量，所以可以认为该区立地条件下无论是在有机分解层还是矿质土层植物吸收利用的氮素仍是以无机N为主。 4 松林下松针凋落物易于累积，这与松针凋落物分解缓慢有关，从而导致松林内养分周转缓慢。通过用不同性质凋落物和灌丛地土壤构建微生态系统，比较油松、辐射松、连香树、灌丛虎榛子凋落物分解对C、N循环过程的影响，结果显示油松和辐射松针叶凋落物比连香树、虎榛子凋落物分解更慢，减缓了养分循环过程。然而将针叶凋落物与阔叶凋落物混合后，油松和辐射松针叶凋落物的分解加快，C、N元素的循环过程也加速。此结果表明在松林内维持具有高质量凋落物的灌丛植被或在松林内栽植一些阔叶树种如连香树对维持和增进松树人工林的土壤肥力有重大的作用。室内培养的结果还显示添加凋落物后土壤DOC和DON的含量显著增加，表明凋落物是土壤DOM的直接来源。然而不同物种凋落物处理下土壤DOC和DON的含量有所不同，并随时间发生改变。混合凋落物处理下土壤DOC和DON的含量均高于松针凋落物单独处理下土壤DOC和DON的含量。DON是一个主要的水溶性N库，随时间的变化趋势与无机N的变化趋势不同，在土壤N循环过程中起到了中间N库的作用。 As a labile fraction of soil organic matter, dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a very important role in material cycling of terrestrial ecosystem. The turnover of DOM is now being considered as main components in nutrient cycling. DOM mainly includes dissolved organic carbon (DOC), -nitrogen (DON), -phosphorous (DOP) and –sulfur (DOS). Among these constituents, DOC and DON directly participate in C and N cycling. It is essential to study DOC and DON dynamics and their controlling factors in the areas where no related study has ever been carried out. Study about them can provide data supports on understanding the mechanism of the global C and N cycling. DOC and DON dynamics and their controlling factors have been focused on in the research of C and N cycling of forest ecosystems. Based on forest plantations of Maoxian, Minjiang River in warm temperate zone, soil DOC and DON pool size, their seasonal dynamics, and the correlation between DOC, DON and other nutrients were studied in order to understand the importance of DOC and DON in the study area. Soil DOC and DON dynamics induced by leaf litter decomposition were also studied. The study contributed to comprehensively understanding C and N cycling processes and providing baseline data for including DOC and DON into the indices system of evaluating nutrient conditions. The results were as follows: 1 Several different plant communities under brown soil and Cinnamon soil were chosen as sampling plots. The contents and features of soil DOC and DON were evaluated. The results showed that DOC and DON were present under the two soil types. DOC contents in the top soil (0-10 cm) and the subsoil (10-20 cm) respectively varied from 111.96 mg kg-1to 159.95 mg kg-1, and 69.02 mg kg-1 to 100.84 mg kg-1. DON contents in the top soil (0-10 cm) and the subsoil (10-20 cm) respectively varied from 11.88 mg kg-1to 23.08 mg kg-1, and 4.70 mg kg-1 to 10.77 mg kg-1. Free amino acid contents in the top soil (0-10 cm) and the subsoil (10-20 cm) respectively varied from 0.84 mg kg-1to 1.66 mg kg-1, and 0.39 mg kg-1 to 0.73 mg kg-1. Significant correlations were found between DOC, DON and some nutrient indices, which together reflected soil condition and quality. It was hence essential to study DOC and DON in the study area. 2 Seasonal dynamics of DOC, DON, inorganic N, microbial biomass C and N were studied under Pinus tabulaeformis and Cercidiphyllum japonicum plantation. The results indicated that seasonal dynamics of soil DOC and DON under the two plantations performed similar change pattern, with the highest values in autumn. The seasonal dynamics of soil DOC and DON were mainly influenced by the litterfall. However, biotic factors such as soil microbial activities and abiotic factors such as precipitation and temperature also controlled the dynamics of soil DOC and DON. The seasonal dynamic of DON was different from that of NO3--N and NH4+-N, which showed that the behavioral differences between DON and inorganic nitrogen. And hence, it was proposed to include DON into soil N cycling in the study area. 3 Amino acid dynamics in Oa and topsoil (0-10 cm) under P. tabulaeformis and C. japonicum plantation were studied. The results showed that amino acid content in Oa was significantly higher than that in mineral soil. At each sampling time, significantly higher amino acid contents were found in P. tabulaeformis plantation than in C. japonicum plantation. The content of inorganic nitrogen was much higher than the content of amino acid in each sampling layer at each sampling time. After a 30-days laboratory incubation the content of amino acid was still lower than the content of inorganic nitrogen. The results implicated that the form of N absorbed by plants in these study sites were mainly inorganic nitrogen. 4 Usually needle litter is more resistant to decomposition, which leads to needle litter accumulation in pure coniferous stands and slows down the rate of nutrient circulation. By constructing microcosms with local shrubland soil and containing the four single-species (P. tabulaeformis, P. radiata, C. japonicum, Ostryopsis davidiana) litters, the decomposition rates and related C and N dynamics of needle litters and broadleaved litters during the early stage were compared. The results showed that the decomposition rates of pine needles were lower than those of broadleaved litters, which descended C and N cycling processes. However, the presence of C. japonicum or O. davidiana litter into pine needles increased the decomposition rates of pine needles and also dramatically promoted C and N cycling processes. It should be appropriate for plantation managers to consider C. japonicum as an ameliorative species or remain O. davidiana in pine plantations to improve soil conditions and help maintain soil fertility. The laboratory incubation still showed that DOC and DON contents in all litter-amended treatments were significantly higher than no litter-amended treatment, which proved that litter could be a direct source of DOM in soils. Different species litters induced different soil DOC and DON contents, which correspondingly changed over time. DOC and DON contents in mixed litter treatments were higher than those in pine needle litter treatments. As a major soluble N pool, DON developed a different changing pattern over time compared with inorganic N and played a role of interim N pool in soil N cycling.

栽培模式、施氮和品种对冬小麦冠层结构和产量的影响

在黄土高原南部半湿润易旱区土垫旱耕人为土上进行大田试验,研究氮肥、品种和栽培模式对冬小麦叶面积指数(LAI)和透光率(DIFN)及产量的影响。结果表明,小麦生长过程中LAI先增大后减小,在开花期最大,成熟期最小,施氮能够显著增加LAI;DIFN的变化规律与LAI相反。不同品种间LAI和DIFN差异显著。全程覆膜和覆膜150 d的LAI极显著大于常规栽培、集雨面栽培和三密一稀栽培模式,DIFN与此相反;施氮后籽粒产量极显著增加。在不同栽培模式下,以全程覆膜、覆膜150 d和集雨面栽培模式的产量较高,但从维持土壤质量角度考虑,则覆膜150 d和集雨面2种栽培模式优于其它几种栽培模式;从冠层结构特征分析,这2种栽培模式更有利于增加群体光合能力。

Analysing artefacts dependencies to evolving software systems

Les logiciels sont en constante évolution, nécessitant une maintenance et un développement continus. Ils subissent des changements tout au long de leur vie, que ce soit pendant l'ajout de nouvelles fonctionnalités ou la correction de bogues. Lorsque les logiciels évoluent, leurs architectures ont tendance à se dégrader et deviennent moins adaptables aux nouvelles spécifications des utilisateurs. En effet, les architectures de ces logiciels deviennent plus complexes et plus difficiles à maintenir à cause des nombreuses dépendances entre les artefacts. Par conséquent, les développeurs doivent comprendre les dépendances entre les artefacts des logiciels pour prendre des mesures proactives qui facilitent les futurs changements et ralentissent la dégradation des architectures des logiciels. D'une part, le maintien d'un logiciel sans la compréhension des les dépendances entre ses artefacts peut conduire à l'introduction de défauts. D'autre part, lorsque les développeurs manquent de connaissances sur l'impact de leurs activités de maintenance, ils peuvent introduire des défauts de conception, qui ont un impact négatif sur l'évolution du logiciel. Ainsi, les développeurs ont besoin de mécanismes pour comprendre comment le changement d'un artefact impacte le reste du logiciel. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons trois contributions principales : La spécification de deux nouveaux patrons de changement et leurs utilisations pour fournir aux développeurs des informations utiles concernant les dépendances de co-changement. La spécification de la relation entre les patrons d'évolutions des artefacts et les fautes. La découverte de la relation entre les dépendances des anti-patrons et la prédisposition des différentes composantes d'un logiciel aux fautes.

An optimized ERP brain–computer interface based on facial expression changes

Objective. Interferences from spatially adjacent non-target stimuli are known to evoke event-related potentials (ERPs) during non-target flashes and, therefore, lead to false positives. This phenomenon was commonly seen in visual attention-based brain–computer interfaces (BCIs) using conspicuous stimuli and is known to adversely affect the performance of BCI systems. Although users try to focus on the target stimulus, they cannot help but be affected by conspicuous changes of the stimuli (such as flashes or presenting images) which were adjacent to the target stimulus. Furthermore, subjects have reported that conspicuous stimuli made them tired and annoyed. In view of this, the aim of this study was to reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue using a new stimulus presentation pattern based upon facial expression changes. Our goal was not to design a new pattern which could evoke larger ERPs than the face pattern, but to design a new pattern which could reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue, and evoke ERPs as good as those observed during the face pattern. Approach. Positive facial expressions could be changed to negative facial expressions by minor changes to the original facial image. Although the changes are minor, the contrast is big enough to evoke strong ERPs. In this paper, a facial expression change pattern between positive and negative facial expressions was used to attempt to minimize interference effects. This was compared against two different conditions, a shuffled pattern containing the same shapes and colours as the facial expression change pattern, but without the semantic content associated with a change in expression, and a face versus no face pattern. Comparisons were made in terms of classification accuracy and information transfer rate as well as user supplied subjective measures. Main results. The results showed that interferences from adjacent stimuli, annoyance and the fatigue experienced by the subjects could be reduced significantly (p < 0.05) by using the facial expression change patterns in comparison with the face pattern. The offline results show that the classification accuracy of the facial expression change pattern was significantly better than that of the shuffled pattern (p < 0.05) and the face pattern (p < 0.05). Significance. The facial expression change pattern presented in this paper reduced interference from adjacent stimuli and decreased the fatigue and annoyance experienced by BCI users significantly (p < 0.05) compared to the face pattern.

An optimized ERP Brain-computer interface based on facial expression changes

OBJECTIVE: Interferences from spatially adjacent non-target stimuli are known to evoke event-related potentials (ERPs) during non-target flashes and, therefore, lead to false positives. This phenomenon was commonly seen in visual attention-based brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) using conspicuous stimuli and is known to adversely affect the performance of BCI systems. Although users try to focus on the target stimulus, they cannot help but be affected by conspicuous changes of the stimuli (such as flashes or presenting images) which were adjacent to the target stimulus. Furthermore, subjects have reported that conspicuous stimuli made them tired and annoyed. In view of this, the aim of this study was to reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue using a new stimulus presentation pattern based upon facial expression changes. Our goal was not to design a new pattern which could evoke larger ERPs than the face pattern, but to design a new pattern which could reduce adjacent interference, annoyance and fatigue, and evoke ERPs as good as those observed during the face pattern. APPROACH: Positive facial expressions could be changed to negative facial expressions by minor changes to the original facial image. Although the changes are minor, the contrast is big enough to evoke strong ERPs. In this paper, a facial expression change pattern between positive and negative facial expressions was used to attempt to minimize interference effects. This was compared against two different conditions, a shuffled pattern containing the same shapes and colours as the facial expression change pattern, but without the semantic content associated with a change in expression, and a face versus no face pattern. Comparisons were made in terms of classification accuracy and information transfer rate as well as user supplied subjective measures. MAIN RESULTS: The results showed that interferences from adjacent stimuli, annoyance and the fatigue experienced by the subjects could be reduced significantly (p < 0.05) by using the facial expression change patterns in comparison with the face pattern. The offline results show that the classification accuracy of the facial expression change pattern was significantly better than that of the shuffled pattern (p < 0.05) and the face pattern (p < 0.05). SIGNIFICANCE: The facial expression change pattern presented in this paper reduced interference from adjacent stimuli and decreased the fatigue and annoyance experienced by BCI users significantly (p < 0.05) compared to the face pattern.

Thickness Changes on Whillans Ice Stream and Ice Stream C, West Antarctica, Derived from Laser Altimeter Measurements

Repeat airborne laser altimeter measurements are used to derive surface elevation changes on parts of Whillans Ice Stream and Ice Stream C, West Antarctica. Elevation changes are converted to estimates of ice equivalent thickness change using local accumulation rates, surface snow densities and vertical bedrock motions. The surveyed portions of two major tributaries of Whillans Ice Stream are found to be thinning almost uniformly at an average rate of similar to 1 m a(-1). Ice Stream C has a complicated elevation-change pattern, but is generally thickening. These results are used to estimate the contribution of each surveyed region to the current rate of global sea-level rise.

Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Habitat Monitoring and Assessment - 2010 Final Report

For the last two decades, the Cape Sable seaside sparrow (CSSS), a federally endangered species, has been a pivot point for water management operations in the Everglades, primarily because a decline in sparrow population in the early 1990s was attributed in part to managementinduced alterations in hydrologic regimes. With a goal of understanding the response of landscape-level processes to hydrological restoration and its interaction with fire, a study intended to monitor vegetation structure and composition throughout the marl prairie landscape has been conducted since 2003 with funding from U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). In the first three years (2003-2005), vegetation structure and composition was characterized in relation to the existing hydrologic regime and fire history. During 2006-2010, vegetation was resampled to assess vegetation change within the sparrow habitat. This document summarizes the vegetation change pattern observed between the two sampling periods in sub-population A, C, E and F, emphasizing the work accomplished in FY 2010.

Can a change in the spawning pattern of Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) affect its recruitment?

Argentine hake (Merluccius hubbsi) inhabit waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean between 22° and 55°S, at depths ranging from 50 to 500 m (Cousseau and Perrota, 1998). This species has historically been among the more abundant fish resources in the Argentine Sea, where its biomass has ranged between one and two million metric tons annually since 1986 (Aubone et al., 2000). In this area, there are two identified fishing stocks, limited by the 41°S parallel. The southern group (Patagonian stock) is the more important with an abundance of about 85% of the total biomass estimated for this species in 1999 (Aubone et al., 2000). During the late 1990s, the spawning biomass of both stocks and their recruitment indices declined drastically, both of which were attributed to an increase in exploitation (Aubone et al., 2000).