USING GPS DATA TO EXPLORE DEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTORS OF LIFE-SPACE: A POOLED ANALYSIS

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Using epidemiological survey data to infer geographic distributions of leishmaniasis vector species

An important aspect of tropical medicine is analysis of geographic aspects of risk of disease transmission, which for lack of detailed public health data must often be reduced to an understanding of the distributions of critical species such as vectors and reservoirs. We examine the applicability of a new technique, ecological niche modeling, to the challenge of understanding distributions of such species based on municipalities in the state of São Paulo in which a group of 5 Lutzomyia sandfly species have been recorded. The technique, when tested based on independent occurrence data, yielded highly significant predictions of species' distributions; minimum sample sizes for effective predictions were around 40 municipalities.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Analysis of pedigree and conformation data to explain genetic variability of the horse breed Franches-Montagnes

Franches-Montagnes is the only native horse breed in Switzerland, therefore special efforts should be made for ensuring its survival. The objectives of this study were to characterize the structure of this population as well as genetic variability with pedigree data, conformation traits and molecular markers. Studies were focused to clarify if this population is composed of a heavy- and a light-type subpopulation. Extended pedigree records of 3-year-old stallions (n = 68) and mares (n = 108) were available. Evaluations of body conformation traits as well as pedigree data and molecular markers did not support the two-subpopulation hypothesis. The generation interval ranged from 7.8 to 9.3 years. The complete generation equivalent was high (>12). The number of effective ancestors varied between 18.9 and 20.1, whereof 50% of the genetic variability was attributed to seven of them. Genetic contribution of Warmblood horses ranged from 36% to 42% and that of Coldblood horses from 4% to 6%. The average inbreeding coefficient reached 6%. Inbreeding effective population size was 114.5 when the average increase of the inbreeding coefficient per year since 1910 was taken. Our results suggest that bottleneck situations occurred because of selection of a small number of sire lines. Promotion of planned matings between parents that are less related is recommended in order to avoid a reduction of the genetic diversity.

Data to investigate the role of Pomatoschistus microps in intertidal food webs, sampled off the island of Sylt

Ecological network analysis (ENA) was used to study the effects of Pomatoschistus microps on energy transport through the food web, its impact on other compartments and its possible role as a keystone species in the trophic webs of an Arenicola tidal flat ecosystem and a sparse Zostera noltii bed ecosystem. Three ENA models were constructed: (a) model 1 contains data of the original food web from prior research in the investigated area by Baird et al. (2007), (b) an updated model 2 which included biomass and diet data of P. microps from recent sampling, and (c) model 3 simulating a food web without P. microps. A comparison of energy transport between the different models revealed that more energy is transported from lower trophic levels up the food chain, in the presence of P. microps (models 1 and 2) than in its absence (model 3). Calculations of the keystone index (KSi) revealed the high overall impact (measured as eps_i) of this fish species on food webs. In model 1, P. microps was assigned a low KSi in the Arenicola flat and in the sparse Z. noltii bed. Calculations in model 2 ranked P. microps first for keystoneness and eps_i in both communities, the Arenicola flat and the sparse Z. noltii bed. Taken together, our results give insight into the role of P. microps when considering a whole food web and reveal direct and indirect trophic interactions of this small-sized fish species. These results might illustrate the impact and importance of abundant, widespread species in food webs and facilitate further investigations.

Analysis of Madison County vehicle data to evaluate the effect of Autocheck program on vehicle accident rates. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Using register data to assess the impact of response enhancement methods on the risk of nonresponse bias and survey costs

The pursuit of high response rates to minimise the threat of nonresponse bias continues to dominate decisions about resource allocation in survey research. Yet a growing body of research has begun to question this practice. In this study, we use previously unavailable data from a new sampling frame based on population registers to assess the value of different methods designed to increase response rates on the European Social Survey in Switzerland. Using sampling data provides information about both respondents and nonrespondents, making it possible to examine how changes in response rates resulting from the use of different fieldwork methods relate to changes in the composition and representativeness of the responding sample. We compute an R-indicator to assess representativity with respect to the sampling register variables, and find little improvement in the sample composition as response rates increase. We then examine the impact of response rate increases on the risk of nonresponse bias based on Maximal Absolute Bias (MAB), and coefficients of variation between subgroup response rates, alongside the associated costs of different types of fieldwork effort. The results show that increases in response rate help to reduce MAB, while only small but important improvements to sample representativity are gained by varying the type of effort. These findings lend further support to research that has called into question the value of extensive investment in procedures aimed at reaching response rate targets and the need for more tailored fieldwork strategies aimed both at reducing survey costs and minimising the risk of bias.

Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Regular visual observations of persistent contrails over Reading, UK, have been used to evaluate radiosonde measurements of temperature and humidity defining cold ice-supersaturated atmospheric regions which are assumed to be a necessary condition for persistent condensation trails (contrails) to form. Results show a good correlation between observations and predictions using data from Larkhill, 63 km from Reading. A statistical analysis of this result and the forecasts using data from four additional UK radiosonde stations are presented. The horizontal extent of supersaturated layers could be inferred from this to be several hundred kilometres. The necessity of bias corrections to radiosonde humidity measurements is discussed and an analysis of measured ice-supersaturated atmospheric layers in the troposphere is presented. It is found that ice supersaturation is more likely to occur in winter than in summer, with frequencies of 17.3% and 9.4%, respectively, which is mostly due to the layers being thicker in winter than in summer. The most probable height for them to occur is about 10 km.

Using floating car data to analyse the effects of ITS measures and eco-driving

The road transportation sector is responsible for around 25% of total man-made CO2 emissions worldwide. Considerable efforts are therefore underway to reduce these emissions using several approaches, including improved vehicle technologies, traffic management and changing driving behaviour. Detailed traffic and emissions models are used extensively to assess the potential effects of these measures. However, if the input and calibration data are not sufficiently detailed there is an inherent risk that the results may be inaccurate. This article presents the use of Floating Car Data to derive useful speed and acceleration values in the process of traffic model calibration as a means of ensuring more accurate results when simulating the effects of particular measures. The data acquired includes instantaneous GPS coordinates to track and select the itineraries, and speed and engine performance extracted directly from the on-board diagnostics system. Once the data is processed, the variations in several calibration parameters can be analyzed by comparing the base case model with the measure application scenarios. Depending on the measure, the results show changes of up to 6.4% in maximum speed values, and reductions of nearly 15% in acceleration and braking levels, especially when eco-driving is applied.