System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Rare canopy species in communities within the Atlantic Coastal Forest in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil

Rare species are one of the principal components of the species richness and diversity encountered in Dense Ombrophilous Tropical Forests. This study sought to analyze the rare canopy species within the Atlantic Coastal Forest in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Six different communities were examined: Dense Ombrophilous alluvial Forest; Dense sub-montane Ombrophilous Forest; Dense Montane Ombrophilous in Serra do Mar and Serra da Mantiqueira. In each area the vegetation was sampled within forty 10 x 25 m plots alternately distributed along a linear transect. All trees with DBH (1.3 m above ground level) a parts per thousand yen5 cm were sampled. The canopy was characterized using the allometric relationship between diameter and height, and included all trees with BDH a parts per thousand yen10 cm and height a parts per thousand yen10 m. A total of 64 families, 206 genera, and 542 species were sampled, of which 297 (54.8%) represented rare species (less than one individual per hectare). The percentage of rare species varied from 34 to 50% in each of the different communities sampled. A majority of these rare trees belonged to the Rosidae, and a smaller proportion to the Dilleniidae. It was concluded that there was no apparent pattern to rarity among families, that rarity was probably derived from a number of processes (such as gap formation), and that a great majority of the rare species sampled were consistently rare. This indicates that the restricted geographic distribution and high degree of endemism of many arboreal taxa justifies the conservation of even small fragments of Atlantic Forest.

The new research centre of the Brazilian Petroleum Company in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The achievements in the thermal performance of air-conditioned buildings in the tropics

The study on the thermal performance of the air-conditioned buildings of the new research centre of the Brazilian Petroleum Company, in the tropical climate of Rio de Janeiro, was part of a bigger research and consultancy, project involving environmental issues. The architectural design was the subject of a national competition in 2004, encompassing over 100,000 m(2). According to the design brief, out of the 10 buildings of the new research centre, 7 have to be either completely or partially air-conditioned, due to specific occupation requirements. The challenge for better thermal performance was related to systems` energy efficiency, to the introduction of natural ventilation and to the notion of adaptive comfort, which were verified with the support of thermal dynamic simulations. At the early stages of the assessments, the potential for natural ventilation in the working spaces considering the mixed-mode strategy achieved 30% of occupation hours. However, the development of the design project led to fully air-conditioned working spaces, due to users` references regarding the conventional culture of the office environment. Nevertheless, the overall architectural approach in accordance to the climatic conditions still showed a contribution to the buildings` energy efficiency. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of social structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo

This article presents the results of a comparative study on socio-spatial structures in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo in 2000. We drew on data from the national Demographic Census by weighted areas to construct the Erikson, Goldthorpe, and Portocarrero (EGP) classification and the International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI), both widely used in social stratification studies. This information was then submitted to group analyses for the two cities, allowing comparison of the presence of social groups in each city. Next, using spatial statistics, we assessed the spatial distribution of the socio-economic classes and the presence of social segregation in the two metropolitan areas. The results suggest the presence of strong similarity between the social structures in the two cities, also marked by similarly intense patterns of social segregation at the metropolitan level.

Drug-resistant tuberculosis in six hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

SETTING: Tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance survey in six hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To estimate resistance to at least one drug (DR) and multidrug resistance (MDR) and identify associated factors. DESIGN: One-year cross-sectional survey. Hospitals were included as a convenience sample. RESULTS: Of 595 patients investigated, 156 (26.2%) had previously undergone anti-tuberculosis treatment, 433 (72.8%) were not previously treated and information on the remaining 6 was not available. Overall, DR and MDR rates were high, at respectively 102 (17.1%, 95%CI 14.3-20.5) and 44 (7.4%, 95%CI 5.5-9.9) cases. Among individuals not previously treated, 17 had MDR (3.9%, 95%CI 2.4-6.3) and diagnosis in a TB reference hospital was independently associated with MDR (prevalence ratio [PR] 3.3, 95%CI 1.2-8.7) after multivariate analysis. Among previously treated individuals, 27 had MDR (17.3%, 95%CI 11.7-24.2). MDR-TB was independently associated with diagnosis in a TB reference hospital (PR 3.6, 95%CI 1.5-8.7), male sex (PR 2.3,95%CI 1.2-4.4) and dyspnoea (PR 0.3, 95%CI 0.1-0.7). CONCLUSION: We found high levels of DR- and MDR-TB. Our study design did not permit us to determine the contribution of community versus nosocomial transmission. Further studies are needed to establish this. Nevertheless, hospitals should be recognised as a potential source of transmission of resistant TB strains and urgent measures to avoid nosocomial TB transmission should be taken.

Knowledge and practices of medical students to prevent tuberculosis transmission in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Objectives. To describe knowledge, practices, and associated factors of medical students to prevent transmission of tuberculosis (TB) in five medical schools. Methods. Cross-sectional survey of undergraduate medical students in preclinical and in early and late clinical years. Information was obtained on sociodemographic profile, previous lectures on TB, knowledge about TB transmission, exposure to patients with active pulmonary TB, and use of respiratory protective masks. Results. Among 1 094 respondents, 575 (52.6%) correctly answered that coughing, speaking, and sneezing can transmit TB. Early [adjusted odds ratio = 4.0 (3.0, 5.5)] and late [adjusted odds ratio = 4.2 (3.1, 5.8)] clinical years were associated with correct answers, but having had previous lectures on TB was not. Among those who had previous lectures on TB, the rate of correct answers increased from 42.1% to 61.6%. Among 332 medical students who reported exposure to TB patients, 194 (58.4%) had not used protective masks. More years of clinical experience was associated with the use of masks [adjusted odds ratio = 2.9 (1.4, 6.1)], while knowledge was inversely associated with the use of masks [adjusted odds ratio = 0.4 (0.2, 0.6)]. Conclusions. Many medical students are not aware of the main routes of TB infection, and lectures on TB are not sufficient to change knowledge and practices. Regardless of knowledge about TB transmission, students engage in risky behaviors: more than two-thirds do not use a protective mask when examining an active TB case. We suggest innovative, effective active learning experiences to change this scenario.

The relationships between selected anthropometric and socio-economic data in schoolchildren from different social strata in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The nutritional status according to anthropometric data was assessed in 756 schoolchildren from 5 low-income state schools and in one private school in the same part of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The prevalence of stunting and wasting (cut-off point: <90% ht/age and <80% wt/ht) ranged in the public schools from 6.2 to 15.2% and 3.3 to 24.0%, respectively, whereas the figures for the private school were 2.3 and 3.5%, respectively. Much more obesity was found in the private school (18.0%) than in the state schools (0.8 - 6.2%). Nutritional problems seem to develop more severely in accordance with the increasing age of the children. Therefore it appears advisable to assess schoolchildren within the context of a nutritional surveillance system.

Pregnancy rates and predictors in women with HIV/AIDS in Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence and predictors of first pregnancy among women with HIV/AIDS. METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1996 and 2003. This study comprised 225 women with HIV/AIDS followed up until their first pregnancy or first censored event (hysterectomy, tubal ligation, menopause, 50 years of age, loss to follow-up, death or the end of December 2003). Pregnancy and abortion rates were estimated, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify baseline characteristics associated with pregnancy risk. RESULTS: The women were followed up for 565 person/years with a median follow-up of 3 years per women. The mean age was 32 years (SD: 7), and 54.7% were white. There were 60 pregnancies in 39 women, and 18 were terminated (induced abortions), accounting for a rate of 6.9% and 2.1% women/year, respectively. Repeated pregnancies occurred in 33.3% of the women (13/39). Higher pregnancy risk was seen among younger women (HR=3.42; 95%CI: 1.69;6.95) and those living with their partners (HR=1.89; 95%CI: 1.00;3.57). Lower pregnancy risk was associated with higher education level (HR=0.43; 95%CI: 0.19;0.99) and use of antiretroviral therapy (HR=061; 95%CI: 0.31;1.17). CONCLUSIONS: Lower pregnancy rates were found in our cohort than in the general population. Sociodemographic characteristics should be taken into consideration in the management of reproductive health in HIV-positive childbearing age women. Reproductive and family planning counseling must be incorporated into HIV/AIDS programs for women to help preventing HIV transmission to their partners and offspring.

Spatial distribution and socioeconomic context of tuberculosis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of risk for tuberculosis and its socioeconomic determinants in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.METHODS An ecological study on the association between the mean incidence rate of tuberculosis from 2004 to 2006 and socioeconomic indicators of the Censo Demográfico (Demographic Census) of 2000. The unit of analysis was the home district registered in the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Notifiable Diseases Information System) of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil. The rates were standardized by sex and age group, and smoothed by the empirical Bayes method. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated by Moran’s I. Multiple linear regression models were studied and the appropriateness of incorporating the spatial component in modeling was evaluated.RESULTS We observed a higher risk of the disease in some neighborhoods of the port and north regions, as well as a high incidence in the slums of Rocinha and Vidigal, in the south region, and Cidade de Deus, in the west. The final model identified a positive association for the variables: percentage of permanent private households in which the head of the house earns three to five minimum wages; percentage of individual residents in the neighborhood; and percentage of people living in homes with more than two people per bedroom.CONCLUSIONS The spatial analysis identified areas of risk of tuberculosis incidence in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro and also found spatial dependence for the incidence of tuberculosis and some socioeconomic variables. However, the inclusion of the space component in the final model was not required during the modeling process.

A serological investigation of rotavirus infections in a shanty town population in Rio de Janeiro

The presence of antibodies against rotavirus was investigated by enzyme immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in two distinct groups of children living in a shanty town in Rio de Janeiro. One hundred and thirty six plasma samples were randomly collected from children of 0 to 33 months (first group) and 255 serum samples were collected from other 85 children at ages of 2, 6 and 9 months (second group). A high percentage of antibodies were found in the newborn children and this rate decreased progressively until the age of 11 months, after which it increased again. At the age of 7 months, geometric mean antibody titers increased indicating that infection had occurred.

The prevalence of antibody to human parvovirus B19 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

During 1985 and 1986 serum samples were collected from the Rio de Janeiro population and examined for the presence of IgG antibody to human parvovirus B19. No difference in prevalence was found between males and females. Antibody prevalence rose from 35% in children less than five years old to almost 80% in children aged eleven to fifteen years. The antibody prevalence in individuals over 50 years old was over 90%.

Longitudinal study of acute respiratory diseases in Rio de Janeiro: occurrence of respiratory viruses during four consecutive years

The occurrence of different viruses in nasopharyngeal secretions from children less than 5 years old with acute respiratory infections (ARI) was investigated over a period of 4 years (1982-1985) in Rio de Janeiro. Of the viruses known to be associated with ARI, all but influenza C and parainfluenza types 1, 2 and 4 were found. Viruses were found more frequently in children attending emergency or pediatric wards than in outpatients. This was clearly related to the high incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the more severe cases of ARI. RSV positive specimens appeared mainly during the fall, over four consecutive years, showing a clear seasonal ocurrence of this virus. Emergency wards provide the best source of data for RSV surveillance, showing sharp increase in the number of positive cases coinciding with increased incidence of ARI cases. Adenovirus were the second most frequent viruses isolated and among these serotypes 1,2 and 7 were predominant. Influenza virus and parainfluenza virus type 3 were next in frequency. Influenza A virus were isolated with equal frequency in outpatient departments, emergency and pediatric wards. Influenza B was more frequent among outpatients. Parainfluenza type 3 caused outbreaks in the shanty town population annually during the late winter or spring and were isolated mainly from outpatients. Herpesvirus, enterovi-rus and rhinovirus were found less frequently. Other viruses than RSV and parainfluenza type 3 did not show a clear seasonal incidence.

High prevalence of hepatitis C infection among Brazilian hemodialysis patients in Rio de Janeiro: a one-year follow-up study

Nearly 400 hemodialysis patients treated at 5 different hemodialysis units in Rio de Janeiro were tested for one year for the presence of hepatitis C and B markers. During the same period, samples were also obtained from 35 continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) patients and from 242 health care workers. Depending on the hemodialysis unit studied, anti-HCV prevalence rates ranging from 47% to 82% (mean 65%) were detected. CAPD patients showed a lower prevalence of 17%. The prevalence of antibodies against hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) among health care workers was 2.9%. We observed a hepatitis C attack rate of 11.5% per year in the anti-HCV-negative hemodialysis patient population. An average of 9.4% of the hemodialysis patients were chronic carriers of hepatitis B virus (HBV) (range 1.8% - 20.4%), while 48.9% showed markers of previous HBV infection. The HBV attack rate was 4.5% per year (range 0% - 6%). These results indicate an alarming high prevalence of anti-HCV among hemodialysis patients of this studied region.