Optimal Climate Change Policies When Governments Cannot Commit

This paper examines the optimal design of climate change policies in the context where governments want to encourage the private sector to undertake significant immediate investment in developing cleaner technologies, but the carbon taxes and other environmental policies that could in principle stimulate such investment will be imposed over a very long future. The conventional claim by environmental economists is that environmental policies alone are sufficient to induce firms to undertake optimal investment. However this argument requires governments to be able to commit to these future taxes, and it is far from clear that governments have this degree of commitment. We assume instead that governments cannot commit, and so both they and the private sector have to contemplate the possibility of there being governments in power in the future that give different (relative) weights to the environment. We show that this lack of commitment has a significant asymmetric effect. Compared to the situation where governments can commit it increases the incentive of the current government to have the investment undertaken, but reduces the incentive of the private sector to invest. Consequently governments may need to use additional policy instruments – such as R&D subsidies – to stimulate the required investment.

Welfare Maximizing Contest Success Functions when the Planner Cannot Commit

We analyze how a contest organizer chooses optimally the winner when the contestants' efforts are already exerted and commitment to the use of a given contest success function is not possible. We de…ne the notion of rationalizability in mixed-strategies to capture such a situation. Our approach allows to derive different contest success functions depending on the aims and attitudes of the decider. We derive contest success functions which are closely related to commonly used functions providing new support for them. By taking into account social welfare considerations our approach bridges the contest literature and the recent literature on political economy. Keywords: Endogenous Contests, Contest Success Function, Mixed-Strategies. JEL Classi…cation: C72 (Noncooperative Games), D72 (Economic Models of Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Elections), D74 (Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances)

Why Public Health Agencies Cannot Depend on Good Laboratory Practices as a Criterion for Selecting Data: The Case of Bisphenol A

In their safety evaluations of bisphenol A (BPA), the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and a counterpart in Europe, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), have given special prominence to two industry-funded studies that adhered to standards defined by Good Laboratory Practices (GLP). These same agencies have given much less weight in risk assessments to a large number of independently replicated non-GLP studies conducted with government funding by the leading experts in various fields of science from around the world. OBJECTIVES: We reviewed differences between industry-funded GLP studies of BPA conducted by commercial laboratories for regulatory purposes and non-GLP studies conducted in academic and government laboratories to identify hazards and molecular mechanisms mediating adverse effects. We examined the methods and results in the GLP studies that were pivotal in the draft decision of the U.S. FDA declaring BPA safe in relation to findings from studies that were competitive for U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding, peer-reviewed for publication in leading journals, subject to independent replication, but rejected by the U.S. FDA for regulatory purposes. DISCUSSION: Although the U.S. FDA and EFSA have deemed two industry-funded GLP studies of BPA to be superior to hundreds of studies funded by the U.S. NIH and NIH counterparts in other countries, the GLP studies on which the agencies based their decisions have serious conceptual and methodologic flaws. In addition, the U.S. FDA and EFSA have mistakenly assumed that GLP yields valid and reliable scientific findings (i.e., "good science"). Their rationale for favoring GLP studies over hundreds of publically funded studies ignores the central factor in determining the reliability and validity of scientific findings, namely, independent replication, and use of the most appropriate and sensitive state-of-the-art assays, neither of which is an expectation of industry-funded GLP research. CONCLUSIONS: Public health decisions should be based on studies using appropriate protocols with appropriate controls and the most sensitive assays, not GLP. Relevant NIH-funded research using state-of-the-art techniques should play a prominent role in safety evaluations of chemicals.

Nutritional deficiencies after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass for morbid obesity often cannot be prevented by standard multivitamin supplementation

BACKGROUND: Despite the increasing use of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) in the treatment of morbid obesity, data about postoperative nutritional deficiencies and their treatment remain scarce. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a standard multivitamin preparation in the prevention and treatment of nutritional deficiencies in obese patients after RYGBP. DESIGN: This was a retrospective study of 2 y of follow-up of obese patients after RYGBP surgery. Between the first and the sixth postoperative months, a standardized multivitamin preparation was prescribed for all patients. Specific requirements for additional substitutive treatments were systematically assessed by a biologic workup at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 mo. RESULTS: A total of 137 morbidly obese patients (110 women and 27 men) were included. The mean (+/-SD) age at the time of surgery was 39.9 +/- 10.0 y, and the body mass index (in kg/m(2)) was 46.7 +/- 6.5. Three months after RYGBP, 34% of these patients required at least one specific supplement in addition to the multivitamin preparation. At 6 and 24 mo, this proportion increased to 59% and 98%, respectively. Two years after RYGBP, a mean amount of 2.9 +/- 1.4 specific supplements had been prescribed for each patient, including vitamin B-12, iron, calcium + vitamin D, and folic acid. At that time, the mean monthly cost of the substitutive treatment was $34.83. CONCLUSION: Nutritional deficiencies are very common after RYGBP and occur despite supplementation with the standard multivitamin preparation. Therefore, careful postoperative follow-up is indicated to detect and treat those deficiencies.

A routine electrocardiogram cannot be used to determine the size of myocardial infarction in the rat

Nine lead electrocardiograms of non-infarcted (N = 61) and infarcted (N = 71) female Wistar rats (200-250 g) were analyzed in order to distinguish left ventricle myocardial infarction (MI) larger than 40% (LMI) from MI smaller than 40% (SMI). MI larger than 40% clearly caused a deviation of ÂQRS and ÂT from normal values of 270-360 degrees to 90-270 degrees. Infarcted rats showed Q wave in D1 larger than 1 mm with 94% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The sum of QRS positivity in V1, V2 and V6 lower than 10 mm identified MI with 82% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The data showed that MI can be easily and reliably diagnosed by electrocardiogram in the rat. However, contradicting what is frequently believed, when specificity and sensitivity were analyzed focusing on MI size, none of these current electrocardiographic indices of MI size adequately discriminates LMI from SMI.

Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

«The Soviet cannot be trusted» : les relations diplomatiques entre l’URSS et la Grande-Bretagne dans les années 1920.

Ce mémoire tente de présenter l’état des relations diplomatiques entre la Russie soviétique, puis l’Union des républiques socialistes soviétiques (URSS) à partir de 1922, et la Grande-Bretagne entre 1920 et 1927, à travers les documents du Foreign Office britannique. Pour cela, il présente le retour progressif des relations officielles entre les deux pays sous la gouverne du premier ministre britannique Lloyd George, de 1916 à 1922, et la mise en place d’une politique britannique à l’égard du gouvernement soviétique. Il tente ensuite d’établir les politiques des différents gouvernements qui suivent celui de Lloyd George, et de voir si ces politiques marquent une rupture avec la politique du gouvernement de Lloyd George ou si, au contraire, il existe une continuité dans ces politiques, malgré le changement de gouvernement. L’hypothèse principale que nous soutenons est que malgré les changements de gouvernements entre 1920 et 1927, la politique de la Grande-Bretagne restera identique durant toute la période, et ce malgré les différents gouvernements britanniques qui vont se succéder : un gouvernement d’union, deux gouvernements conservateurs et le premier gouvernement travailliste. Nous croyons que la prétendue « propagande soviétique » sera l’une des lignes directrices des relations entre les deux pays pendant la période étudiée, lignes établies par Lloyd George et son gouvernement au début de 1920. Nous soutenons également que cette « propagande » sera le pivot des relations entre les deux pays, et qu’elle sera un frein constant dans l’établissement de relations normalisées avec l’Union soviétique. Nous croyons que cette propagande entraînera une « paranoïa » de la part du gouvernement britannique qui, pendant toute la période que nous étudions, passera tout son temps à se plaindre au gouvernement soviétique de « sa » propagande, entraînant finalement la rupture des relations en 1927.

What Monte Carlo models can do and cannot do efficiently?

The question "what Monte Carlo models can do and cannot do efficiently" is discussed for some functional spaces that define the regularity of the input data. Data classes important for practical computations are considered: classes of functions with bounded derivatives and Holder type conditions, as well as Korobov-like spaces. Theoretical performance analysis of some algorithms with unimprovable rate of convergence is given. Estimates of computational complexity of two classes of algorithms - deterministic and randomized for both problems - numerical multidimensional integration and calculation of linear functionals of the solution of a class of integral equations are presented. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Maximal Oxygen uptake cannot be determined in the incremental phase of the lactate minimum test on a cycle ergometer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The taxonomic distinctness of macroinvertebrate communities of Atlantic Forest streams cannot be predicted by landscape and climate variables, but traditional biodiversity indices can

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)