Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Saving bitrate vs. pleasing users : where is the break-even point in mobile video quality?

This paper presents a comprehensive study to find the most efficient bitrate requirement to deliver mobile video that optimizes bandwidth, while at the same time maintains good user viewing experience. In the study, forty participants were asked to choose the lowest quality video that would still provide for a comfortable and long-term viewing experience, knowing that higher video quality is more expensive and bandwidth intensive. This paper proposes the lowest pleasing bitrates and corresponding encoding parameters for five different content types: cartoon, movie, music, news and sports. It also explores how the lowest pleasing quality is influenced by content type, image resolution, bitrate, and user gender, prior viewing experience, and preference. In addition, it analyzes the trajectory of users’ progression while selecting the lowest pleasing quality. The findings reveal that the lowest bitrate requirement for a pleasing viewing experience is much higher than that of the lowest acceptable quality. Users’ criteria for the lowest pleasing video quality are related to the video’s content features, as well as its usage purpose and the user’s personal preferences. These findings can provide video providers guidance on what quality they should offer to please mobile users.

Títulos públicos indexados à inflação e a ancoragem das expectativas no Brasil

O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a ancoragem das expectativas de inflação de longo prazo no Brasil, medidas por intermédio das taxas de inflação implícitas nos títulos indexados ao IPCA. Para isso, são extraídas as curvas de juros reais e nominais dos preços do mercado secundário de títulos públicos, e uma vez de posse destes valores, são calculadas as taxas de inflação implícitas observadas diariamente no mercado brasileiro. Utilizando um modelo simples, estimado por Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO) robusto, testa-se a sensibilidade de alguns vértices das taxas de inflação implícita em relação às variações mensais de indicadores macroeconômicos relevantes para a trajetória de curto prazo da inflação e política monetária. Desta maneira, pretende-se avaliar se o comportamento da inflação implícita nos preços de mercado dos títulos públicos pode oferecer evidências de que as expectativas estão bem ancoradas no Brasil, no âmbito do regime de metas de inflação.

Ensaios sobre a estrutura a termo da taxa de juros

Esta tese é composta de três artigos que analisam a estrutura a termo das taxas de juros usando diferentes bases de dados e modelos. O capítulo 1 propõe um modelo paramétrico de taxas de juros que permite a segmentação e choques locais na estrutura a termo. Adotando dados do tesouro americano, duas versões desse modelo segmentado são implementadas. Baseado em uma sequência de 142 experimentos de previsão, os modelos propostos são comparados à benchmarks e concluí-se que eles performam melhor nos resultados das previsões fora da amostra, especialmente para as maturidades curtas e para o horizonte de previsão de 12 meses. O capítulo 2 acrescenta restrições de não arbitragem ao estimar um modelo polinomial gaussiano dinâmico de estrutura a termo para o mercado de taxas de juros brasileiro. Esse artigo propõe uma importante aproximação para a série temporal dos fatores de risco da estrutura a termo, que permite a extração do prêmio de risco das taxas de juros sem a necessidade de otimização de um modelo dinâmico completo. Essa metodologia tem a vantagem de ser facilmente implementada e obtém uma boa aproximação para o prêmio de risco da estrutura a termo, que pode ser usada em diferentes aplicações. O capítulo 3 modela a dinâmica conjunta das taxas nominais e reais usando um modelo afim de não arbitagem com variáveis macroeconômicas para a estrutura a termo, afim de decompor a diferença entre as taxas nominais e reais em prêmio de risco de inflação e expectativa de inflação no mercado americano. Uma versão sem variáveis macroeconômicas e uma versão com essas variáveis são implementadas e os prêmios de risco de inflação obtidos são pequenos e estáveis no período analisado, porém possuem diferenças na comparação dos dois modelos analisados.

Innovative new production systems for low-chill stonefruit in Australia and South-East Asia: a review

Fruit size and quality are major problems in early-season stonefruit cultivars grown in Australia and South-East Asia. In Australia, Thailand and Vietnam, new training and trellising systems are being developed to improve yield and fruit quality. Australian trials found that new training systems, such as the Open Tatura system, are more productive compared with standard vase-trained trees. We established new crop-loading indices for low-chill stonefruit to provide a guide for optimum fruit thinning based on fruit number per canopy surface and butt cross sectional area. Best management practices were developed for low-chill stonefruit cultivation using growth retardants, optimizing leaf nitrogen concentrations and controlling rates and timing of irrigation. Regulated deficit irrigation (RDI) improved fruit sugar concentrations by restricting water application during stage II of fruit growth. New pest and disease control measures are also being developed using a new generation of fruit fly baits. Soft insecticides such as (Spinosad) are used at significantly lower concentrations and have lower mammalian toxicity than the organophosphates currently registered in Australia. In addition, fruit fly exclusion netting effectively eliminated fruit fly and many other insect pests from the orchard with no increase in diseases. This netting system increased sugar concentrations of peach and nectarine by as much as 30%. Economic analyses showed that the break-even point can be reduced from 12 to 6 years Open Tatura trellising and exclusion netting.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Economics of operation of 38' G.R.P. fishing vessels issued by the A.D.B. Fisheries Project: a case study

The author gives a financial and economic valuation of the operation of vessels in the 38 foot GRP class. He discusses particularly the materials and methods of fishing they use, species composition of their catches, their rate of return, break-even analysis, financial and social analysis.

Input-output relationship and economics of pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture in two districts of Bangladesh

An attempt was made to study the input-output relationships and economics of pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture in Bangladesh. By analyzing the data collected from 50 pangas farms and 55 carp-pangas farms, the study has investigated the production systems of two technologies and the effects of fingerling stocking and applications of feed and fertilizer on fisheries income. The data were collected from the fishermen of Trishal and Bhaluka of Mymensingh district, and Kahaloo and Adamdighee of Bogra district during 2001-02. For pangas monoculture, the stocking density was 31,561 per ha while it was 55,017 per ha in carp-pangas polyculture. Most of the farmers used urea, TSP and lime before stocking. Rice and wheat bran happened to be the most common feed ingredients for both types of culture in general. Other important ingredients used were mustard oil-cakes, rice polish, wheat flour, fish meal, bone meal, soybean meal and poultry litter. In terms of quantities, rice bran and wheat bran dominated the farmers list. Rice and wheat bran together constituted about 60% of all studied feeds. Feed cost constituted 59.13% of total costs for pangas monoculture and 67.44% for carp-pangas polyculture. Per ha productions of pangas and carp-pangas in a single culture cycle were 15,508 kg and 19,745 kg, respectively. Per ha gross profits were estimated to be Tk 310,311 and Tk 464,418 for pangas monoculture and carp-pangas polyculture, respectively. Net profit appeared to be Tk 264,216 per ha for pangas monoculture and Tk 416,509 per ha for carp-pangas polyculture. The BCRs calculated were 1.46 and 1.68 for monoculture and polyculture, respectively. The break-even costs per kg of fish were estimated at Tk 36.93 for pangas and Tk 30.93 for mixed species which was much lower than the prices the producers received. Break-even productions were estimated at 10,702 kg per ha for pangas monoculture and 11,784 kg per ha for carp-pangas polyculture. Fingerling and feed cost, and pond size significantly explained the variation of income from pangas monoculture. These factors have significantly influenced the income from the crop. Functional analysis shows that 1% increase in the feed cost might increase 0.51% of pangas income and 0.41% in carp-pangas income. No other inputs had shown this much of responses to increasing income from a fish.

The effect of increase in the number of fishing trips on the economic efficiency of 9.82 m and 11 m fishing trawlers along Kerala coast

Cost-benefit analysis of a 9.82 m and 11 m fishing trawlers based on the number of fishing trips is presented. The number of fishing trips per year determines the profit and loss of the trawler. With the increase in the number of fishing trips, the profit also increase for both the sizes of trawlers. The minimum quantity of prawn and fish to be landed for 0-20% profit for varying number of fishing trips are worked out. The break-even for 9.82 and 11m trawlers was observed to be 185 and 210 fishing trips respectively during 1980-81.

The effect of clearance on shrouded and unshrouded turbines at two levels of reaction

In this paper, the effect of seal clearance on the efficiency of a turbine with a shrouded rotor is compared with the effect of the tip clearance when the same turbine has an unshrouded rotor. The shrouded versus unshrouded comparison was undertaken for two turbine stage designs one having 50% reaction the other having 24% reaction. Measurements for a range of clearances, including very small clearances, showed three important phenomena. Firstly, as the clearance is reduced, there is a "break-even clearance" at which both the shrouded turbine and the unshrouded turbine have the same efficiency. If the clearance is reduced further, the unshrouded turbine performs better than the shrouded turbine, with the difference at zero clearance termed the "offset loss". This is contrary to the traditional assumption that both shrouded and unshrouded turbines have the same efficiency at zero clearance. The physics of the break-even clearance and the offset loss are discussed. Secondly, the use of a lower reaction had the effect of reducing the tip leakage efficiency penalty for both the shrouded and the unshrouded turbines. In order to understand the effect of reaction on the tip leakage, an analytical model was used and it was found that the tip leakage efficiency penalty should be understood as the dissipated kinetic energy rather than either the tip leakage mass flow rate or the tip leakage loss coefficient. Thirdly, it was also observed that, at a fixed flow coefficient, the fractional change in the output power with clearance was approximately twice the fractional change in efficiency with clearance. This was explained by using an analytical model. © 2010 by ASME.

The effect of clearance on shrouded and unshrouded turbines at two levels of reaction

In this paper, the effect of seal clearance on the efficiency of a turbine with a shrouded rotor is compared with the effect of the tip clearance when the same turbine has an unshrouded rotor. The shrouded versus unshrouded comparison was undertaken for two turbine stage designs one having 50% reaction, the other having 24% reaction. Measurements for a range of clearances, including very small clearances, showed three important phenomena. Firstly, as the clearance is reduced, there is a "break-even clearance" at which both the shrouded turbine and the unshrouded turbine have the same efficiency. If the clearance is reduced further, the unshrouded turbine performs better than the shrouded turbine, with the difference at zero clearance termed the "offset loss." This is contrary to the traditional assumption that both shrouded and unshrouded turbines have the same efficiency at zero clearance. The physics of the break-even clearance and the offset loss are discussed. Secondly, the use of a lower reaction had the effect of reducing the tip leakage efficiency penalty for both the shrouded and the unshrouded turbines. In order to understand the effect of reaction on the tip leakage, an analytical model was used and it was found that the tip leakage efficiency penalty should be understood as the dissipated kinetic energy rather than either the tip leakage mass flow rate or the tip leakage loss coefficient. Thirdly, it was also observed that, at a fixed flow coefficient, the fractional change in the output power with clearance was approximately twice the fractional change in efficiency with clearance. This was explained by using an analytical model. © 2014 by ASME.

Radiation crosslinking of biodegradable poly(butylene succinate) and its heat distortion behavior

Poly(butylene succinate), (PBS1) was irradiated with Co-60-gamma radiation at various temperatures. The gel fraction of PBS I irradiated at molten state (100 degreesC) is higher than that of the samples irradiated at lower temperatures with the same dose. Two-step irradiation ( irradiation at room temperature and then irradiation at 100 degreesC) yielded the highest gel content as compared with other treatment conditions. It is due to the network structure formed by preirradiation at room temperature and further irradiation at molten state reduce degradation of PBS1. PBS1 prepared by the two-step irradiation was improved in heat distortion resistance because of its higher gel content. Unirradiated PBS1 sheets broke immediately at 110 degreesC. On the other hand, for samples (gel fraction 50%) irradiated by asing the two-step method, they did not break even at 130 degreesC for 200 min.

Radiation crosslinking of biodegradable poly(butylene succinate) at high temperature

Poly(butylene succinate), (PBS) with different molecular weight was gamma -irradiated at different temperatures and various doses. PBS with high molecular weight and smaller peak area of crystal melting gave the highest gel content at the same temperatures and dose. A two-step irradiation (irradiation in molten state after irradiation at room temperature) gave the highest gel content in different conditions. This is due to the formation of network structure by pre-irradiation at room temperature that leads to less degradation. PBS prepared by two step irradiation was effective for improvement of heat stability because of high gel content formation. Unirradiated PBS sheets broke immediately at 110 degrees, while the irradiated sample (gel fraction, 50%) by a two step-method did not break even up to 200 minutes at 130 degreesC. The PBS sheets are biodegradable even after crosslinking.

Con máquinas propias o con las del contratista : puntos de indiferencia a través de 12 años

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Existenzgründung und Beratung: ( I ) Gewinnschwellenanalyse

Die wirtschaftspolitische Förderung von Existenz- und besonders Unternehmensgründungen zielt auf die Schaffung von Wertschöpfung und damit von Einkommen, Nachfrage und Wachstum im Kontext regionaler Mikrokreisläufe. In diesem Zusammenhang besteht die Aufgabe der Existenzgründungsberatung im Hinblick auf die Gründungsplanung und die nachfolgende Gründungsrealisierung in der Vermeidung oder Minimierung der Gründungsrisiken. Diese Risiken werden hier anhand des modifizierten Modells der Gewinnschwellenanalyse (Break – Even - Analyse) aufgezeigt und in ihren Konsequenzen erläutert. Zugleich wird erkennbar, wie sie vermieden oder minimiert werden können. Und eine phasenorientierte, am Projektmanagement orientierte praktische Vorgehensweise, in deren Mittelpunkt der Geschäftsplan (Business Plan) steht, gewährleistet die nötige Systematik, die begleitende Qualitätssicherung und die betriebswirtschaftliche Steuerung des mehrjährigen Gründungsprozesses.