Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Forecasting the Earth"s radiation belts and modeling solar energetic particle events: Recent results from SPACECAST

High-energy charged particles in the van Allen radiation belts and in solar energetic particle events can damage satellites on orbit leading to malfunctions and loss of satellite service. Here we describe some recent results from the SPACECAST project on modelling and forecasting the radiation belts, and modelling solar energetic particle events. We describe the SPACECAST forecasting system that uses physical models that include wave-particle interactions to forecast the electron radiation belts up to 3 h ahead. We show that the forecasts were able to reproduce the >2 MeV electron flux at GOES 13 during the moderate storm of 7-8 October 2012, and the period following a fast solar wind stream on 25-26 October 2012 to within a factor of 5 or so. At lower energies of 10- a few 100 keV we show that the electron flux at geostationary orbit depends sensitively on the high-energy tail of the source distribution near 10 RE on the nightside of the Earth, and that the source is best represented by a kappa distribution. We present a new model of whistler mode chorus determined from multiple satellite measurements which shows that the effects of wave-particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit are likely to be very significant. We also present radial diffusion coefficients calculated from satellite data at geostationary orbit which vary with Kp by over four orders of magnitude. We describe a new automated method to determine the position at the shock that is magnetically connected to the Earth for modelling solar energetic particle events and which takes into account entropy, and predict the form of the mean free path in the foreshock, and particle injection efficiency at the shock from analytical theory which can be tested in simulations.

Solar cycle evolution of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts and their relation to the slow solar wind

Dipolar streamers are coronal structures formed by open solar flux converging from coronal holes of opposite polarity. Thus the dipolar streamer belt traces the coronal foot print of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and it is strongly associated with the origin of slow solar wind. Pseudostreamers, on the other hand, separate converging regions of open solar flux from coronal holes of the same polarity and do not contain current sheets. They have recently received a great deal of interest as a possible additional source of slow solar wind. Here we add to that growing body of work by using the potential-field source-surface model to determine the occurrence and location of dipolar and pseudostreamers over the last three solar cycles. In addition to providing new information about pseudostreamer morphology, the results help explain why the observations taken during the first Ulysses perihelion pass in 1995 showed noncoincidence between dipolar streamer belt and the locus of slowest flow. We find that Carrington rotation averages of the heliographic latitudes of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts are systematically shifted away from the equator, alternately in opposite directions, with a weak solar cycle periodicity, thus keeping slow wind from the web of combined streamer belts approximately symmetric about the equator. The largest separation of dipolar and pseudostreamer belts occurred close to the Ulysses pass, allowing a unique opportunity to see that slow wind from pseudostreamer belts north of the southward-displaced dipolar belt was responsible for the noncoincident pattern.

Report to Congress: benefits of safety belts and motorcycle helmets. Based on data from the Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System (CODES).

Mode of access: Internet.

I. Safety belt usage among drivers. II. Use of child restraint devices, passenger safety belts and position of passengers in cars. III. Motorcycle helmet usage. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Safety belt usage among drivers : use of child restraint devices, passenger safety belts and position of passengers in cars : motorcycle helmet usage /

Final report; May 1980.

Short cuts to power transmission.

Mode of access: Internet.

Tests of the transmitting capacities of different pulleys in leather belt drives.

"A paper read before the National Association of Cotton Manufacturers at its Ninety-first Meeting, Manchester, Vermont, September 29, 1911."

Risk Zones of Human Leishmaniases in the Western Mediterranean Basin: Correlations between Vector Sand Flies, Bioclimatology and Phytosociology

Correspondence analysis was applied to sand fly sampling in 865 stations from the Western Mediterranean basin. The position of each of 24 species was determined with respect to the bioclimatic belts. Thus, the multidimensional analyses manifest clear correlations between bioclimatic belts and their expression in the area, the phytosociological groupings, and vector species of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases. The transfer of these data to usual maps allows to delimit the geographical distribution of these diseases in the Western Mediterranean basin and contributes to the determination, in a rational manner, of the high risk zones.

Reorganization of a deeply incised drainage: role of deformation, sedimentation and groundwater flow

Deeply incised drainage networks are thought to be robust and not easily modified, and are commonly used as passive markers of horizontal strain. Yet, reorganizations (rearrangements) appear in the geologic record. We provide field evidence of the reorganization of a Miocene drainage network in response to strike-slip and vertical displacements in Guatemala. The drainage was deeply incised into a 50-km-wide orogen located along the North America-Caribbean plate boundary. It rearranged twice, first during the Late Miocene in response to transpressional uplift along the Polochic fault, and again in the Quaternary in response to transtensional uplift along secondary faults. The pattern of reorganization resembles that produced by the tectonic defeat of rivers that cross growing tectonic structures. Compilation of remote sensing data, field mapping, sediment provenance study, grain-size analysis and Ar(40)/Ar(39) dating from paleovalleys and their fill reveals that the classic mechanisms of river diversion, such as river avulsion over bedrock, or capture driven by surface runoff, are not sufficient to produce the observed diversions. The sites of diversion coincide spatially with limestone belts and reactivated fault zones, suggesting that solution-triggered or deformation-triggered permeability have helped breaching of interfluves. The diversions are also related temporally and spatially to the accumulation of sediment fills in the valleys, upstream of the rising structures. We infer that the breaching of the interfluves was achieved by headward erosion along tributaries fed by groundwater flow tracking from the valleys soon to be captured. Fault zones and limestone belts provided the pathways, and the aquifers occupying the valley fills provided the head pressure that enhanced groundwater circulation. The defeat of rivers crossing the rising structures results essentially from the tectonically enhanced activation of groundwater flow between catchments.