A study of the errors of the averaged models in the restricted three-body problem in a short time scale

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Depth Averaged Models for Fast Landslide Propagation: Mathematical, Rheological and Numerical Aspects

This paper presents an overview of depth averaged modelling of fast catastrophic landslides where coupling of solid skeleton and pore fluid (air and water) is important. The first goal is to show how Biot-Zienkiewicz models can be applied to develop depth integrated, coupled models. The second objective of the paper is to consider a link which can be established between rheological and constitutive models. Perzyna´s viscoplasticity can be considered a general framework within which rheological models such as Bingham and cohesive frictional fluids can be derived. Among the several alternative numerical models, we will focus here on SPH which has not been widely applied by engineers to model landslide propagation. We propose an improvement, based on combining Finite Difference meshes associated to SPH nodes to describe pore pressure evolution inside the landslide mass. We devote a Section to analyze the performance of the models, considering three sets of tests and examples which allows to assess the model performance and limitations: (i) Problems having an analytical solution, (ii) Small scale laboratory tests, and (iii) Real cases for which we have had access to reliable information

Pertubação orbital devida a um terceiro corpo com distribuição não uniforme de massa e em órbita elíptica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of the Eccentricity of a Perturbing Third Body on the Orbital Correction Maneuvers of a Spacecraft

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

PT-symmetry management in oligomer systems

We study the effects of management of the PT-symmetric part of the potential within the setting of Schrodinger dimer and trimer oligomer systems. This is done by rapidly modulating in time the gain/loss profile. This gives rise to a number of interesting properties of the system, which are explored at the level of an averaged equation approach. Remarkably, this rapid modulation provides for a controllable expansion of the region of exact PT-symmetry, depending on the strength and frequency of the imposed modulation. The resulting averaged models are analysed theoretically and their exact stationary solutions are translated into time-periodic solutions through the averaging reduction. These are, in turn, compared with the exact periodic solutions of the full non-autonomous PT-symmetry managed problem and very good agreement is found between the two.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two different 3D biogeochemical models for the NW mediterranean sea: validation with Meris data and intercomparison

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of New South Wales from February to June the 2007. Two different biogeochemical models are coupled to a three dimensional configuration of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) for the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Ahumada and Cruzado, 2007). The first biogeochemical model (BLANES) is the three-dimensional version of the model described by Bahamon and Cruzado (2003) and computes the nitrogen fluxes through six compartments using semi-empirical descriptions of biological processes. The second biogeochemical model (BIOMEC) is the biomechanical NPZD model described in Baird et al. (2004), which uses a combination of physiological and physical descriptions to quantify the rates of planktonic interactions. Physical descriptions include, for example, the diffusion of nutrients to phytoplankton cells and the encounter rate of predators and prey. The link between physical and biogeochemical processes in both models is expressed by the advection-diffusion of the non-conservative tracers. The similarities in the mathematical formulation of the biogeochemical processes in the two models are exploited to determine the parameter set for the biomechanical model that best fits the parameter set used in the first model. Three years of integration have been carried out for each model to reach the so called perpetual year run for biogeochemical conditions. Outputs from both models are averaged monthly and then compared to remote sensing images obtained from sensor MERIS for chlorophyll.

Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Overcoming limitations of modelling rare species by using ensembles of small models

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a standard tool in ecology and applied conservation biology. Modelling rare and threatened species is particularly important for conservation purposes. However, modelling rare species is difficult because the combination of few occurrences and many predictor variables easily leads to model overfitting. A new strategy using ensembles of small models was recently developed in an attempt to overcome this limitation of rare species modelling and has been tested successfully for only a single species so far. Here, we aim to test the approach more comprehensively on a large number of species including a transferability assessment. 2. For each species numerous small (here bivariate) models were calibrated, evaluated and averaged to an ensemble weighted by AUC scores. These 'ensembles of small models' (ESMs) were compared to standard Species Distribution Models (SDMs) using three commonly used modelling techniques (GLM, GBM, Maxent) and their ensemble prediction. We tested 107 rare and under-sampled plant species of conservation concern in Switzerland. 3. We show that ESMs performed significantly better than standard SDMs. The rarer the species, the more pronounced the effects were. ESMs were also superior to standard SDMs and their ensemble when they were independently evaluated using a transferability assessment. 4. By averaging simple small models to an ensemble, ESMs avoid overfitting without losing explanatory power through reducing the number of predictor variables. They further improve the reliability of species distribution models, especially for rare species, and thus help to overcome limitations of modelling rare species.

Analysis and validation of space averaged drag model for numerical simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds

This thesis presents an approach for formulating and validating a space averaged drag model for coarse mesh simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds using the two-fluid model. Proper modeling for fluid dynamics is central in understanding any industrial multiphase flow. The gas-solid flows in fluidized beds are heterogeneous and usually simulated with the Eulerian description of phases. Such a description requires the usage of fine meshes and small time steps for the proper prediction of its hydrodynamics. Such constraint on the mesh and time step size results in a large number of control volumes and long computational times which are unaffordable for simulations of large scale fluidized beds. If proper closure models are not included, coarse mesh simulations for fluidized beds do not give reasonable results. The coarse mesh simulation fails to resolve the mesoscale structures and results in uniform solids concentration profiles. For a circulating fluidized bed riser, such predicted profiles result in a higher drag force between the gas and solid phase and also overestimated solids mass flux at the outlet. Thus, there is a need to formulate the closure correlations which can accurately predict the hydrodynamics using coarse meshes. This thesis uses the space averaging modeling approach in the formulation of closure models for coarse mesh simulations of the gas-solid flow in fluidized beds using Geldart group B particles. In the analysis of formulating the closure correlation for space averaged drag model, the main parameters for the modeling were found to be the averaging size, solid volume fraction, and distance from the wall. The closure model for the gas-solid drag force was formulated and validated for coarse mesh simulations of the riser, which showed the verification of this modeling approach. Coarse mesh simulations using the corrected drag model resulted in lowered values of solids mass flux. Such an approach is a promising tool in the formulation of appropriate closure models which can be used in coarse mesh simulations of large scale fluidized beds.

Systematic construction of models for the exchange hole of density functional theory.

Dans ce travail, nous étendons le nombre de conditions physiques actuellement con- nues du trou d’échange exact avec la dérivation de l’expansion de quatrième ordre du trou d’échange sphérique moyenne exacte. Nous comparons les expansions de deux- ième et de quatrième ordre avec le trou d’échange exact pour des systèmes atomiques et moléculaires. Nous avons constaté que, en général, l’expansion du quatrième ordre reproduit plus fidèlement le trou d’échange exact pour les petites valeurs de la distance interélectronique. Nous démontrons que les ensembles de base de type gaussiennes ont une influence significative sur les termes de cette nouvelle condition, en étudiant com- ment les oscillations causées par ces ensembles de bases affectent son premier terme. Aussi, nous proposons quatre modèles de trous d’échange analytiques auxquels nous imposons toutes les conditions actuellement connues du trou d’échange exact et la nou- velle présentée dans ce travail. Nous évaluons la performance des modèles en calculant des énergies d’échange et ses contributions à des énergies d’atomisation. On constate que les oscillations causeés par les bases de type gaussiennes peuvent compromettre la précision et la solution des modèles.

Temperature dependence of protein dynamics simulated with three different water models

The effect of variation of the water model on the temperature dependence of protein and hydration water dynamics is examined by performing molecular dynamics simulations of myoglobin with the TIP3P, TIP4P, and TIP5P water models and the CHARMM protein force field at temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The atomic mean-square displacements, solvent reorientational relaxation times, pair angular correlations between surface water molecules, and time-averaged structures of the protein are all found to be similar, and the protein dynamical transition is described almost indistinguishably for the three water potentials. The results provide evidence that for some purposes changing the water model in protein simulations without a loss of accuracy may be possible.

The impact of uncertainty in satellite data on the assessment of flood inundation models

The performance of flood inundation models is often assessed using satellite observed data; however these data have inherent uncertainty. In this study we assess the impact of this uncertainty when calibrating a flood inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) for a flood event in December 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK. The flood extent is delineated from an ERS-2 SAR image of the event using an active contour model (snake), and water levels at the flood margin calculated through intersection of the shoreline vector with LiDAR topographic data. Gauged water levels are used to create a reference water surface slope for comparison with the satellite-derived water levels. Residuals between the satellite observed data points and those from the reference line are spatially clustered into groups of similar values. We show that model calibration achieved using pattern matching of observed and predicted flood extent is negatively influenced by this spatial dependency in the data. By contrast, model calibration using water elevations produces realistic calibrated optimum friction parameters even when spatial dependency is present. To test the impact of removing spatial dependency a new method of evaluating flood inundation model performance is developed by using multiple random subsamples of the water surface elevation data points. By testing for spatial dependency using Moran’s I, multiple subsamples of water elevations that have no significant spatial dependency are selected. The model is then calibrated against these data and the results averaged. This gives a near identical result to calibration using spatially dependent data, but has the advantage of being a statistically robust assessment of model performance in which we can have more confidence. Moreover, by using the variations found in the subsamples of the observed data it is possible to assess the effects of observational uncertainty on the assessment of flooding risk.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.