Étude des indicateurs pouvant prédire la présence de fraude : une application à l'assurance automobile du Québec.

Rapport de recherche

Prédiction de l'attrition en date de renouvellement en assurance automobile avec processus gaussiens

Le domaine de l’assurance automobile fonctionne par cycles présentant des phases de profitabilité et d’autres de non-profitabilité. Dans les phases de non-profitabilité, les compagnies d’assurance ont généralement le réflexe d’augmenter le coût des primes afin de tenter de réduire les pertes. Par contre, de très grandes augmentations peuvent avoir pour effet de massivement faire fuir la clientèle vers les compétiteurs. Un trop haut taux d’attrition pourrait avoir un effet négatif sur la profitabilité à long terme de la compagnie. Une bonne gestion des augmentations de taux se révèle donc primordiale pour une compagnie d’assurance. Ce mémoire a pour but de construire un outil de simulation de l’allure du porte- feuille d’assurance détenu par un assureur en fonction du changement de taux proposé à chacun des assurés. Une procédure utilisant des régressions à l’aide de processus gaus- siens univariés est développée. Cette procédure offre une performance supérieure à la régression logistique, le modèle généralement utilisé pour effectuer ce genre de tâche.

Statistical methods for insurance fraud detection

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Modélisation de l'espérance de vie des clients en assurance

Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons une méthodologie statistique permettant d’obtenir un estimateur de l’espérance de vie des clients en assurance. Les prédictions effectuées tiennent compte des caractéristiques individuelles des clients, notamment du fait qu’ils peuvent détenir différents types de produits d’assurance (automobile, résidentielle ou les deux). Trois approches sont comparées. La première approche est le modèle de Markov simple, qui suppose à la fois l’homogénéité et la stationnarité des probabilités de transition. L’autre modèle – qui a été implémenté par deux approches, soit une approche directe et une approche par simulations – tient compte de l’hétérogénéité des probabilités de transition, ce qui permet d’effectuer des prédictions qui évoluent avec les caractéristiques des individus dans le temps. Les probabilités de transition de ce modèle sont estimées par des régressions logistiques multinomiales.

Quality assurance in higher education : for whom and of what?

Over the past two decades the quality assurance of higher education institutions has captured a growing interest as evidenced by the increasing number of national and transnational bodies engaged in this area. Yet as the first decade of the 21st century draws to a close, higher education systems and thus the regimes designed to ensure their quality are faced with significant complexity. Issues of accountability, authority and responsibility are paramount when responding to industry bodies, to globalisation and the transnational provision of higher education and to the use of market mechanisms. In this paper we raise some of the challenges for quality assurance for higher education presented by this growing complexity through the question, quality assurance in higher education, for whom and of what, highlighting our concern for a need to expand the centrality of accountability to include authority and responsibility as part of the quality assurance regimes for higher education

A risk-based approach to course quality assurance

A decade ago, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) developed an innovative annual Courses Performance Report, but through incremental change, this report became quite labour-intensive. A new risk-based approach to course quality assurance, that consolidates voluminous data in a simple dashboard, responds to the changing context of the higher education sector. This paper will briefly describe QUT’s context and outline the second phase of implementation of this new approach to course quality assurance. The main components are: Individual Course Reports (ICRs), the Consolidated Courses Performance Report (CCPR), Underperforming Courses Status Update and the Strategic Faculty Courses Update (SFCU). These components together form a parsimonious and strategic annual cycle of reporting and place QUT in a positive position to respond to future sector change

Validation of the MEASURE automobile emissions model : a statistical analysis

The Mobile Emissions Assessment System for Urban and Regional Evaluation (MEASURE) model provides an external validation capability for hot stabilized option; the model is one of several new modal emissions models designed to predict hot stabilized emission rates for various motor vehicle groups as a function of the conditions under which the vehicles are operating. The validation of aggregate measurements, such as speed and acceleration profile, is performed on an independent data set using three statistical criteria. The MEASURE algorithms have proved to provide significant improvements in both average emission estimates and explanatory power over some earlier models for pollutants across almost every operating cycle tested.

Assurance of learning : the role of work integrated learning and industry partners

In the partnering with students and industry it is important for universities to recognize and value the nature of knowledge and learning that emanates from work integrated learning experiences is different to formal university based learning. Learning is not a by-product of work rather learning is fundamental to engaging in work practice. Work integrated learning experiences provide unique opportunities for students to integrate theory and practice through the solving of real world problems. This paper reports findings to date of a project that sought to identify key issues and practices faced by academics, industry partners and students engaged in the provision and experience of work integrated learning within an undergraduate creative industries program at a major metropolitan university. In this paper, those findings are focused on some of the particular qualities and issues related to the assessment of learning at and through the work integrated experience. The findings suggest that the assessment strategies needed to better value the knowledges and practices of the Creative Industries. The paper also makes recommendations about how industry partners might best contribute to the assessment of students’ developing capabilities and to continuous reflection on courses and the assurance of learning agenda.

Building organizational capability through a quality assurance program within a business school and encouraging organizational culture change

This study explores organizational capability and culture change through a project developing an assurance of learning program in a business school. In order to compete internationally for high quality faculty, students, strategic partnerships and research collaborations it is essential for Universities to develop and maintain an international focus and a quality produce that predicts excellence in the student experience and graduate outcomes that meet industry needs. Developing, marketing and delivering that quality product requires an organizational strategy to which all members of the organization contribute and adhere. Now, the ability to acquire, share and utilize knowledge has become a critical organizational capability in academia as well as other industries. Traditionally the functional approach to business school structures and disparate nature of the social networks and work contact limit the sharing of knowledge between academics working in different disciplines. In this project a community of practice program was established to include academics in the development of an embedded assurance of learning program affecting more than 5000 undergraduate students and 250 academics from nine different disciplines across four schools. The primary outcome from the fully developed and implemented assurance of learning program was the five year accreditation of the business schools programs by two international accrediting bodies, EQUIS and AACSB. However this study explores a different outcome, namely the change in organizational culture and individual capabilities as academics worked together in teaching and learning teams. This study uses a survey and interviews with academics involved, through a retrospective panel design which contained an experimental group and a control group. Results offer insights into communities of practice as a means of addressing organizational capability and changes in organizational culture. Knowledge management and shared learning can achieve strategic and operational benefits equally within academia as within other industrial enterprises but it comes at a cost. Traditional structures, academics that act like individual contractors and deep divides across research, teaching and service interest served a different master and required fewer resources. Collaborative structures; fewer master categories of discrete knowledge areas; specific strategic goals; greater links between academics and industry; and the means to share learned insights will require a different approach to resourcing both the individual and the team.