Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Embedded Multi-Core systems for Mixed Criticality applications in dynamic and changeable real-time environments

EMC2 finds solutions for dynamic adaptability in open systems. It provides handling of mixed criticality multicore applications in r eal-time conditions, withscalability and utmost flexibility, full-scale deployment and management of integrated tool chains, through the entire lifecycle.

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Topics, techniques and applications in urban and regional science in the nineties: a bibliometric analysis

The current state of regional and urban science has been much discussed and a number of studies have speculated on possible future trends in the development of the discipline. However, there has been little empirical analysis of current publication patterns in regional and urban journals. This paper studies the kinds of topics, techniques and data used in articles published in nine top international journals during the 1990s with the aim of identifying current trends in this research field

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

An analysis of the determinants in economics and business publications by spanish universities between 1994 and 2004

The objective of this study consists, firstly, of quantifying differences between Spanish universities’ output (in terms of publications and citations), and secondly, analysing its determinants. The results obtained show that there are factors which have a positive influence on these indicators, such as having a third-cycle programme, with public financing obtained in competitive selection procedures, having a large number of full-time researchers or involvement in collaborations with international institutions. However, other factors which appear to have the opposite effect were also noted. These include a higher number of students per lecturer or a lower proportion of lecturers with recognised six-year periods.

An analysis of the determinants in economics and business publications by spanish universities between 1994 and 2004

The objective of this study consists, firstly, of quantifying differences between Spanish universities' output (in terms of publications and citations), and secondly, analysing its determinants. The results obtained show that there are factors which have a positive influence on these indicators, such as having a third-cycle programme, with public financing obtained in competitive selection procedures, having a large number of full-time researchers or involvement in collaborations with international institutions. However, other factors which appear to have the opposite effect were also noted. These include a higher number of students per lecturer or a lower proportion of lecturers with recognised six-year periods.

A Beacon based Localization System for Autonomous Mobile Robots and its Applications in Traffic and Transport Control

ACCURATE sensing of vehicle position and attitude is still a very challenging problem in many mobile robot applications. The mobile robot vehicle applications must have some means of estimating where they are and in which direction they are heading. Many existing indoor positioning systems are limited in workspace and robustness because they require clear lines-of-sight or do not provide absolute, driftfree measurements.The research work presented in this dissertation provides a new approach to position and attitude sensing system designed specifically to meet the challenges of operation in a realistic, cluttered indoor environment, such as that of an office building, hospital, industrial or warehouse. This is accomplished by an innovative assembly of infrared LED source that restricts the spreading of the light intensity distribution confined to a sheet of light and is encoded with localization and traffic information. This Digital Infrared Sheet of Light Beacon (DISLiB) developed for mobile robot is a high resolution absolute localization system which is simple, fast, accurate and robust, without much of computational burden or significant processing. Most of the available beacon's performance in corridors and narrow passages are not satisfactory, whereas the performance of DISLiB is very encouraging in such situations. This research overcomes most of the inherent limitations of existing systems.The work further examines the odometric localization errors caused by over count readings of an optical encoder based odometric system in a mobile robot due to wheel-slippage and terrain irregularities. A simple and efficient method is investigated and realized using an FPGA for reducing the errors. The detection and correction is based on redundant encoder measurements. The method suggested relies on the fact that the wheel slippage or terrain irregularities cause more count readings from the encoder than what corresponds to the actual distance travelled by the vehicle.The application of encoded Digital Infrared Sheet of Light Beacon (DISLiB) system can be extended to intelligent control of the public transportation system. The system is capable of receiving traffic status input through a GSM (Global System Mobile) modem. The vehicles have infrared receivers and processors capable of decoding the information, and generating the audio and video messages to assist the driver. The thesis further examines the usefulness of the technique to assist the movement of differently-able (blind) persons in indoor or outdoor premises of his residence.The work addressed in this thesis suggests a new way forward in the development of autonomous robotics and guidance systems. However, this work can be easily extended to many other challenging domains, as well.

Models for evolving networks: with applications in telecommunication and online activities

Driven by a range of modern applications that includes telecommunications, e-business and on-line social interaction, recent ideas in complex networks can be extended to the case of time-varying connectivity. Here we propose a general frame- work for modelling and simulating such dynamic networks, and we explain how the long time behaviour may reveal important information about the mechanisms underlying the evolution.

On collective intentions: collective action in economics and philosophy

Philosophers and economists write about collective action from distinct but related points of view. This paper aims to bridge these perspectives. Economists have been concerned with rationality in a strategic context. There, problems posed by “coordination games” seem to point to a form of rational action, “team thinking,” which is not individualistic. Philosophers’ analyses of collective intention, however, sometimes reduce collective action to a set of individually instrumental actions. They do not, therefore, capture the first person plural perspective characteristic of team thinking. Other analyses, problematically, depict intentions ranging over others’ actions. I offer an analysis of collective intention which avoids these problems. A collective intention aims only at causing an individual action, but its propositional content stipulates its mirroring in other minds.

Sintering of tin oxide and its applications in electronics and processing of high purity optical glasses

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

DNA - novel nanomaterial for applications in photonics and in electronics

Functionalization with surfactants and with active molecules of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), thin film processing as well as their nonlinear optical and electrical properties are reviewed and discussed. On the basis of a quantum three level model, we show that the anomalous concentration variation of cubic susceptibility chi((3))(-3 omega; omega, omega, omega) in thin films of DNA-CTMA complexes doped with Disperse Red 1 chromophore can be explained by the concentration variation of two-photon resonance contribution. We show also that the DNA complexes, plasticized with glycerol and adequately doped can be processed into self standing conducting membranes with a high electrical conductivity. The measured ionic conductivity at room temperature, depending on dopant used and its concentration, is in the range of 3.5 x 10(-4)-10(-5) S/cm and increases linearly as a function of temperature, reaching 10(-3) S/cm at 358 K for the most conducting sample, obeying predominantly the Arrhenius law. Practical applications of DNA complexes are also described and discussed. (C) 2012 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.