Wie viele Guppys leben in Santiago? Zur Ubiquität des numerischen Priming beim Ankereffekt

Das wohl bekannteste Phänomen der Urteils- und Entscheidungsforschung im Kontext numeri-scher Urteile ist der Ankereffekt. Dieser bezeichnet die Assimilation einer numerischen Schätzung oder Prognose an einen salienten Wert, dem sogenannten Anker, auch unabhängig von dessen inhaltlicher Relevanz. Die Frage nach den Ursachen von Ankereffekten wird bis zum aktuellen Zeitpunkt kontrovers diskutiert. Die Bedeutung eines Erklärungsmodelles, dem sogenannten numerischem Priming, innerhalb dieser Diskussion ist Gegenstand der vorliegenden Arbeit. Im Theorieteil wird zunächst der Ankereffekt, seine inhaltliche Einordnung und seine Relevanz aus theoretischer wie praktischer Sicht diskutiert. Des weiteren werden die gängigen Erklärungsmodelle zum Ankereffekt vorgestellt. Ein Schwerpunkt hierbei liegt auf einer kritischen Auseinandersetzung mit dem Modell der selektiven Zugänglichkeit (Selective Accessibility Model, kurz: SAM), dem wohl prominentesten Modell aus Sicht der momentanen Forschung. Zwei an den Theorieteil anschließende Fragestellungen sind dann der Gegenstand des empirischen Teils der Arbeit. Zum einen soll überprüft werden, ob Ankereffekte im Standardparadigma, wie bisher angenommen, allein auf den Prozessen des SAM basieren oder ob zusätzlich auch numerisches Priming am Zustandekommen des Ankereffektes in diesem Paradigma beteiligt ist. Zum anderen werden Voraussetzungen für das Auftreten von Ankereffekten durch numerisches Priming untersucht, inbesondere die als relevant eingeschätzte Bedeutung der Aufmerksamkeit gegenüber dem Ankerwert. Beide Experimente verwenden neue, im Kontext von Ankereffekten bisher nicht eingesetzte experimentelle Paradigmen. Um die Bedeutung semantischer Prozesse im Zusammenspiel mit numerischen Prozessen zu untersuchen, wird ein so genannter Objektvergleich eingesetzt. Der Stellenwert von Aufmerksamkeit hingegen wird überprüft, in dem die Ankerwerte subliminal, also unterhalb der Wahrnehmungsschwelle, präsentiert werden. Beiden Experimenten ist jeweils eine Voruntersuchung vorangestellt, die notwendige Bedingungen für die entsprechenden Experimente überprüfen. In der abschließenden Diskussion werden die Ergebnisse der beiden Untersuchungen noch einmal zusammengefasst, und deren Implikationen angesichts der bisher vorliegenden Erkenntnisse aus theoretischer wie praktischer Sicht diskutiert. Des weiteren werden mögliche Forschungsfragen und denkbare experimentelle Untersuchungen hierzu skizziert, die an die innerhalb dieser Arbeit vorgelegten Ergebnisse sinnvoll anschließen könnten.

Der Einfluss von Ankern auf Verkaufsergebnisse in telefonischen Verkaufsgesprächen

Numerische Urteile wie Schätzungen oder Prognosen sind anfällig für Ankereffekte. Ein in eine Entscheidungssituation willkürlich eingeführter numerischer Wert – der Anker – beeinflusst oft das Urteil im Sinne einer Assimilation des Urteils an diesen Wert. Bei Kaufentscheidungen fließt das Ergebnis eines Vergleichs des Produktpreises mit einem Referenzpreis, einem numerischen Wert, in die Kaufentscheidung mit ein. Unter Orientierung an die Prospekttheorie von Kahneman & Tversky kann dieser Referenzpreis in Form eines implementierten Ankers variiert werden. Die vorgelegte interdisziplinäre Arbeit wendet psychologisches Fachwissen in den Wirtschaftswissenschaften an. Sie beschäftigt sich mit den Möglichkeiten bei telefonischen Verkaufsgesprächen, gezielt Anker zu Erhöhung der Verkaufsquote einzusetzen. Der Anker wird in drei unterschiedlichen Experimenten entweder durch den Preis eines zusätzlich angebotenen Produkts, durch das Einbringen eines belanglos scheinenden numerischen Wertes, wie die Anzahl an bereits getätigten Anrufen, oder in Form einer Schätzfrage in das Verkaufsgespräch implementiert. Es wird dabei festgestellt, dass durch einen im Vergleich zum verkaufenden Produkt höheren numerischen Wert, dem Anker, die Verkaufsquote erhöht werden kann. Das Neuartige an der Arbeit liegt vor allem im Aufzeigen der Einfachheit solcher ökonomisch effektiver Ankersetzungen in Verkaufsgesprächen. Willkürlich in eine Kaufsituation eingeführte numerische Werte können - analog zu ihrem Einfluss in Urteilssituationen - auch Kaufentscheidungen in einem realen Markt beeinflussen.

Um estudo de aplicação das teorias da expectativa e da ancoragem na motivação para o desempemho de alunos do ensino médio

This thesis presents a study on Tversky & Kahneman s (1974) Anchoring theory, and Vroom s (1964) Expectance theory in the context of education and students motivation. It is surveyed 424 students of a secondary and agricultural technical school in Brazil Northeast (EAJ). The survey form try to capture the Vroom s Expectance Theory constructs of Valence, Instrumentality, Expectation and Motivational Force, and also the Tversky and Kahneman Anchoring effect in terms of grade expected. The main findings suggest that the minimum grade required by the school is much strong in driving the students motivation and performance than the Expectancy Theory. It was found that the different grades required drive the students to pursue different grade in the same way

Nothing so certain as your anchors? A consumer bias that might lower prices

Anchoring is a well-known decision-making bias: original guesses for a certain question could act as anchors and could influence our final answers. Reference prices - in a similar fashion - can lead to a bias in consumer valuations, and thus consumer demand will be coherent but not one derived from a utility framework. In our paper we investigate the effect of the existence of anchoring on how oligopolistic firms might change their pricing strategy. More specifically, we analyze the effect of anchoring on pricing when differentiated firms compete in Bertrand fashion. We show that if the anchoring effect is smaller than a threshold the average price is lower compared to the no-anchoring case.

Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

Économie comportementale : retrouve-t-on un effet d’ancrage dans la LNH ?

De par leur nature scientifique, les sciences économiques visent, entre autre, à observer, qualifier, ainsi que quantifier des phénomènes économiques afin de pouvoir en dégager diverses prévisions. Ce mémoire se penche sur ces prévisions et, plus particulièrement, sur les facteurs pouvant biaiser les prévisionnistes au niveau comportemental en référant à l’effet d’ancrage, un biais propre à l’économie comportementale – une sous-discipline des sciences économiques. Il sera donc question de comprendre, par une analyse selon la discipline que représente l’économie comportementale, ce qui peut les affecter, avec un accent mis sur l’effet d’ancrage plus précisément. L’idée générale de ce dernier est qu’un agent peut être biaisé inconsciemment par la simple connaissance d’une valeur précédente lorsqu’il est demandé de faire une estimation ultérieure. De cette façon, une analyse des salaires des joueurs de la Ligne Nationale de Hockey (NHL) selon leurs performances passées et leurs caractéristiques personnelles, de 2007 à 2016, a été réalisée dans ce travail afin d’en dégager de possibles effets d’ancrage. Il est alors possible de constater que les directeurs généraux des équipes de la ligue agissent généralement de façon sensible et rationnelle lorsque vient le temps d’octroyer des contrats à des joueurs mais, néanmoins, une anomalie persiste lorsqu’on porte attention au rang auquel un joueur a été repêché. Dans un tel contexte, il semble pertinent de se référer à l’économie comportementale afin d’expliquer pourquoi le rang au repêchage reste une variable significative huit ans après l’entrée d’un joueur dans la NHL et qu’elle se comporte à l’inverse de ce que prévoit la théorie à ce sujet.

Économie comportementale : retrouve-t-on un effet d’ancrage dans la LNH ?

De par leur nature scientifique, les sciences économiques visent, entre autre, à observer, qualifier, ainsi que quantifier des phénomènes économiques afin de pouvoir en dégager diverses prévisions. Ce mémoire se penche sur ces prévisions et, plus particulièrement, sur les facteurs pouvant biaiser les prévisionnistes au niveau comportemental en référant à l’effet d’ancrage, un biais propre à l’économie comportementale – une sous-discipline des sciences économiques. Il sera donc question de comprendre, par une analyse selon la discipline que représente l’économie comportementale, ce qui peut les affecter, avec un accent mis sur l’effet d’ancrage plus précisément. L’idée générale de ce dernier est qu’un agent peut être biaisé inconsciemment par la simple connaissance d’une valeur précédente lorsqu’il est demandé de faire une estimation ultérieure. De cette façon, une analyse des salaires des joueurs de la Ligne Nationale de Hockey (NHL) selon leurs performances passées et leurs caractéristiques personnelles, de 2007 à 2016, a été réalisée dans ce travail afin d’en dégager de possibles effets d’ancrage. Il est alors possible de constater que les directeurs généraux des équipes de la ligue agissent généralement de façon sensible et rationnelle lorsque vient le temps d’octroyer des contrats à des joueurs mais, néanmoins, une anomalie persiste lorsqu’on porte attention au rang auquel un joueur a été repêché. Dans un tel contexte, il semble pertinent de se référer à l’économie comportementale afin d’expliquer pourquoi le rang au repêchage reste une variable significative huit ans après l’entrée d’un joueur dans la NHL et qu’elle se comporte à l’inverse de ce que prévoit la théorie à ce sujet.

EFFECT OF ANCHORING ON PERCEIVED AMNIOCENTESIS RELATED MISCARRIAGE RISK WITHIN A LATINA POPULATION

Most recognized pregnancies are completed without difficulty, yet there is always a 3-5% background risk to have a child with a birth defect. Amniocentesis, the most common type of prenatal diagnostic test, is used to detect chromosomal abnormalities, such as Down syndrome. Amniocentesis is associated with a risk of complications that can lead to a miscarriage, which is typically quoted to be between 1 in 300 and 1 in 500. Amniocentesis uptake rates are typically lowest within the Latina community, and although the factors related to this have been studied before, no specific conclusions have been reached. The general population has a difficult time interpreting risks, as individuals vary in numeracy skills as well as personal factors that can influence risk perception. A recent study by Nuccio (2010) investigated the effect of anchoring, where a patient’s prior knowledge about a subject affects her risk perception, and how it relates to the uptake of amniocentesis within a diverse population in Houston, TX. The effect of anchoring on perceived amniocentesis-related miscarriage risk within the Latina population has not been previously examined. A two-part questionnaire was completed by 96 Latinas receiving prenatal genetic counseling due to an increased risk to have a baby with a chromosome abnormality at various clinics in Houston, TX. The genetic counselor involved in the session completed a separate survey. This population was largely unfamiliar with surveys, risk figures, and prenatal testing. Only one individual was able to quantify the risk associated with amniocentesis prior to the genetic counseling. While the majority of women felt that the risk association with amniocentesis is very low to average, only 7 individuals pursued diagnostic testing through amniocentesis. Most women did not feel like the information gained from an amniocentesis would change the management of their pregnancy and/or they did not believe that their baby had a problem. Women, regardless of ethnicity, deserve individualized genetic counseling sessions that cater to their needs and desires regarding their prenatal care.

A cross-cultural study on the effect of decimal separator on price perception

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Lipid anchoring of Arabidopsis phototropin 1 to assess the functional significance of receptor internalization: should I stay or should I go?

The phototropin 1 (phot1) blue light receptor mediates a number of adaptive responses, including phototropism, that generally serve to optimize photosynthetic capacity. Phot1 is a plasma membrane-associated protein, but upon irradiation, a fraction is internalized into the cytoplasm. Although this phenomenon has been reported for more than a decade, its biological significance remains elusive. Here, we use a genetic approach to revisit the prevalent hypotheses regarding the functional importance of receptor internalization. Transgenic plants expressing lipidated versions of phot1 that are permanently anchored to the plasma membrane were used to analyse the effect of internalization on receptor turnover, phototropism and other phot1-mediated responses. Myristoylation and farnesylation effectively prevented phot1 internalization. Both modified photoreceptors were found to be fully functional in Arabidopsis, rescuing phototropism and all other phot1-mediated responses tested. Light-mediated phot1 turnover occurred as in the native receptor. Furthermore, our work does not provide any evidence of a role of phot1 internalization in the attenuation of receptor signalling during phototropism. Our results demonstrate that phot1 signalling is initiated at the plasma membrane. They furthermore indicate that release of phot1 into the cytosol is not linked to receptor turnover or desensitization.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Manipulation of anchoring strength in an azo-dye side chain polymer by photoisomerization

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Biocompatibility of experimental Ti-30Ta implants with compromised primary stability: effect of TEA

Purpose: Ti-Ta alloys have high potential for dental application due to a good balance between high strength and low modulus. Absence of primary anchoring may occur when dental implants are installed immediately after tooth extraction. Tranexamic acid (TEA) is used to reduce fibrin degradation and can prevent early blood clot breakdown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the biocompatibility of Ti-30Ta implants associated or not with tranexamic acid and installed with compromised primary stability. Methods and materials: Fabricated were 20 implants of titanium ASTM F67 (Grade 4) and 20 implants of Ti-30Ta alloy with dimensions of 2.1 mm × 2.8 mm Ø. They were divided (n = 10) into Group I (Ti machined), Group II (Ti machined/tranexamic acid), Group III (Ti-30Ta alloy) and Group IV (Ti-30Ta/tranexamic acid) and were implanted in tibia (defects with 2.5 mm × 3.2 mm Ø) of 40 male rats (250 g). The surgical sites were rinsed with 5% tranexamic acid solution in Groups II and IV. The animals were euthanized at 45 days postoperative. The pieces were processed in methyl methacrylate (Stevenel's blue/Alizarin red). The percentage of peri-implant tissue repair was analyzed via images obtained by an optical microscope coupled to a digital camera using Leica software and Adobe Photoshop QWin. Data were analyzed statistically with a significance level of 5%. Results: Histomorphometric results showed 97.16% of bone-implant contact for group IV, 89.78% of bone contact for group III, 70.89% for group II and 61.59% of bone contact for group I. The statistical analyses demonstrated significant differences (P < 0.05) among group I and other groups. Conclusion: The results suggest that (a) Ti-30Ta promoted an increase of bone healing and apposition around implant; (b) tranexamic acid favored the stabilization of blood clot and bone formation.

Promising anchoring groups for single-molecule conductance measurements

The understanding of the charge transport through single molecule junctions is a prerequisite for the design and building of electronic circuits based on single molecule junctions. However, reliable and robust formation of such junctions is a challenging task to achieve. In this topical review, we present a systematic investigation of the anchoring group effect on single molecule junction conductance by employing two complementary techniques, namely scanning tunneling microscopy break junction (STM-BJ) and mechanically controllable break junction (MCBJ) techniques, based on the studies published in the literature and important results from our own work. We compared conductance studies for conventional anchoring groups described earlier with the molecular junctions formed through π-interactions with the electrode surface (Au, Pt, Ag) and we also summarized recent developments in the formation of highly conducting covalent Au–C σ-bonds using oligophenyleneethynylene (OPE) and an alkane molecular backbone. Specifically, we focus on the electron transport properties of diaryloligoyne, oligophenyleneethynylene (OPE) and/or alkane molecular junctions composed of several traditional anchoring groups, (dihydrobenzo[b]thiophene (BT), 5-benzothienyl analogue (BTh), thiol (SH), pyridyl (PY), amine (NH2), cyano (CN), methyl sulphide (SMe), nitro (NO2)) and other anchoring groups at the solid/liquid interface. The qualitative and quantitative comparison of the results obtained with different anchoring groups reveals structural and mechanistic details of the different types of single molecular junctions. The results reported in this prospective may serve as a guideline for the design and synthesis of molecular systems to be used in molecule-based electronic devices.

Obesity And Inflammation And The Effect On The Hematopoietic System.

Bone marrow is organized in specialized microenvironments known as 'marrow niches'. These are important for the maintenance of stem cells and their hematopoietic progenitors whose homeostasis also depends on other cell types present in the tissue. Extrinsic factors, such as infection and inflammatory states, may affect this system by causing cytokine dysregulation (imbalance in cytokine production) and changes in cell proliferation and self-renewal rates, and may also induce changes in the metabolism and cell cycle. Known to relate to chronic inflammation, obesity is responsible for systemic changes that are best studied in the cardiovascular system. Little is known regarding the changes in the hematopoietic system induced by the inflammatory state carried by obesity or the cell and molecular mechanisms involved. The understanding of the biological behavior of hematopoietic stem cells under obesity-induced chronic inflammation could help elucidate the pathophysiological mechanisms involved in other inflammatory processes, such as neoplastic diseases and bone marrow failure syndromes.